Australian Open 2023

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm not really on his side, haha! Just wouldn't want to be on Khachanov, but the H2H would scare me from backing Tiafoe. 

Amazing, gets to 6-1 up in the tie-breaker and stops playing, losing 6 points in a row. Deserves his loss.

[sterziyskii]

What do you guys think about Dimitrov winning a set against Nole at @2.00. Grigor plays one of his best tennis right now and he has been winning a set in a lot of his losses to Djokovic. I feel that Nole's injury is not going to heal for 2 days and with Grigor playing this good in the last couple of months, he must win a set here.

[Robinnho]

For me Dimitrov to win a set is highly probable and @2 is good value..... hope Djoko is not pretending to be "slightly" injured.

[Grass Cash]

HI - If there is anyone here who has an opinion on the Giorgi - Bencic match that is going in about 10 hours ? I would greatly appreciate any feedback. Giorgi has never made it past the third round here, but for me I like the way she's playing right now, and moving. I am unsure to the current level of Bencic, but it seems like she's pushing the ball a little bit in her last match vs Liu, and not chasing down some balls. Also, I have no strong opinion on Liu either, but she always seems to lose when I back her. So this win doesn't impress me all that much, and I don't think it tells us anything good. Then we Have easy straight sets win over Tomova. I"m sure this is a pure clay court player, and cannot be trusted to test Bencic at all.  

Edited January 20, 2023 by money44
grammar

[raduvlad1995]

3 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

What do you guys think about Dimitrov winning a set against Nole at @2.00. Grigor plays one of his best tennis right now and he has been winning a set in a lot of his losses to Djokovic. I feel that Nole's injury is not going to heal for 2 days and with Grigor playing this good in the last couple of months, he must win a set here.

I m realy split on that match myself, on one hand I actualy realy like how novak played untill now but that injury could flare up anytime. Grigor is prety good in australia usualy so him taking a set could happen, it will depend on how he serves and how novak moves. I d say it s worth a wagger on him taking  a set, I think I ll just avoid the match myself.

[CzechPunter]

Agree with you guys on Dimitrov, though not sure that's a good sign given the way things have been going for me lately (fingers still crossed for Pegula!). @money44 Giorgi hasn't really been tested yet, not sure how she deals with her first real opponent of the season.

[owenclass]

I think a Rublev, Rune, Popyrin and Bautista Agut accumulator will be the way to go today

Edited January 21, 2023 by owenclass

[neilovan]

13 hours ago, owenclass said:

I think a Rublev, Rune, Popyrin and Bautista Agut accumulator will be the way to go today

Popyrin stuck me out as well.

 

Should have told everyone I put a fiver on alexandrova when she was 3-2 up 1st set. Kiss of death for her. 

Then proceeded to play like a beginner and make 14 unforced errors in about 40 points. Terrible rubbish considering the average rally is only about 6 shots. Losses 8 in a row and disintegrates. 

 

Her opponent was just slightly less bad  , but finds a lucky net cord at 5-4 15 all . Par for the course at the moment.

Just ask me who I bet on and then plonk it on the opponent.... you cannot lose

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by neilovan

[adastra]

For the fourth round, Korda at 1.60 (or even better, possible on exchanges) seems like a steal, watched Hurkacz's last two matches, they were quite low quality (almost lost against Shapovalov who made a ton of stupid mistakes, that match could have gone either way). Sonego played a bit better (until set #4), another match he could have lost. And Korda is in strong form.

Edited January 21, 2023 by adastra

[adastra]

And @neilovan and others: What makes you guys bet on accumulators? Why not pick the best odds available for each individual match?

[Torque]

16 minutes ago, adastra said:

And @neilovan and others: What makes you guys bet on accumulators? Why not pick the best odds available for each individual match?

Accumulators aren't always as bad as they seem. In most cases, leg after leg after leg of prices that aren't fair amplifies the losses, but it's possible to go the other way and pick matches where the value is positive which amplifies the return, albeit at the expense of success in terms of a lower chance of all legs winning.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, it's just absolutely crucial that you keep the number of picks in your accas reasonably low, otherwise it becomes closer to a lottery than picking.

[delfino]

Sinner for me, to win ....but only small bet. I don't like what i see from Tsitsipas today.

[delfino]

Wrong tactics by Tsitsipas. I guess that these tactics are the selection of Philippousis. To move very early on the net without any reason. 

C'mon Sinner! Give the lesson my boy!

[raduvlad1995]

4 hours ago, delfino said:

Wrong tactics by Tsitsipas. I guess that these tactics are the selection of Philippousis. To move very early on the net without any reason. 

C'mon Sinner! Give the lesson my boy!

tsitsipas's dad made him train hard for a full hour before the match, thats why he fell off in the 3rd and 4th set, otherwise he would have straight setted sinner again. But yeah if he meets djokovic and has that dropoff in level again , he s getting beaten.

[apeman666]

If am wanting to oppose Djokovic in outright market who is the best bet, is it tsitsipas? 

[CzechPunter]

Well, plenty of bookies offer bet like Djokovic to win AO2023 Yes/No, and that's probably the best, since he can also theoretically retire/withdraw, and you'd win no matter who would be the actual winner. As for the players who can realistically beat him, I guess Tsitsipas/Khachanov/Korda (who are in the same half), and from the other half I really see a small chance for Rublev and for RBA if it'd be heavily physical and if his injury is relevant.

[owenclass]

The matches dont look that appealing

[neilovan]

13 hours ago, apeman666 said:

If am wanting to oppose Djokovic in outright market who is the best bet, is it tsitsipas? 

For what my opinion is worth. At the moment if Djoko played Djoko I would still get it wrong.

De Minaur will have the crowd well behind him, and it is something that Djoko really does not like. It does not appeal to his narcissistic side. 

I also think that De Minaur has the ability to outlast Djoko here. He doesn't have the weapons or the game, but a slightly injured Djoko may just be vulnerable, to a really long, gruelling match. So I imagine endless rallies with these slow dunlop balls, De Minaur chasing everything down, and hopefully Djoko being beaten. 

 

In the ongoing match between Rublev and Rune, I think Rune is gonna win. Too similar in style and he is just better than Rublev, who can get so mad at himself.

 

 

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

For what my opinion is worth. At the moment if Djoko played Djoko I would still get it wrong.

De Minaur will have the crowd well behind him, and it is something that Djoko really does not like. It does not appeal to his narcissistic side. 

I also think that De Minaur has the ability to outlast Djoko here. He doesn't have the weapons or the game, but a slightly injured Djoko may just be vulnerable, to a really long, gruelling match. So I imagine endless rallies with these slow dunlop balls, De Minaur chasing everything down, and hopefully Djoko being beaten. 

 

In the ongoing match between Rublev and Rune, I think Rune is gonna win. Too similar in style and he is just better than Rublev, who can get so mad at himself.

 

 

I swear I had a 2 pound bet on Rune to win, onto Paul and de Minaur to beat Djoko. Doomed him, but he had so many chances it was insane. To lose your serve to love serving at 6-5 final set is a terrible effort. To blow the tiw breaker from a dominant position also a shocker (thanks Tiafoe 6-1 up and he blew that breaker and the match as well).

Boy, did Djokovic dismantle De Minaur. Absolutely smashed him. That pointless running after every ball, with no real plan, and such a limited game, totally shown up. Is his coach Darren Cahill ... who also could not get a tune out of Simona Halep? These people keep showing up with the same (limited) weapons expecting things to change. Change the plan. Honestly, it's moronic.

For me the only two players that have the power to ward off the curse of 'neilovan' are Pegula and Pliskova. Both have been unbelievable, dispatching opponents with relentless ease.

Pegula looks like she finally believes she belongs. I think if you had to meet her, she would be quite down to earth. She has a maturity and understanding of her own situation and game ATM. I think she sends Azarenka on her way in straights. She has demolished her opponent in 6 out of 8 sets played, winning all in straight sets.

Pliskova looks absolutely fit, lean and mean and is playing super tennis. Doesn't matter what your age is. That feeling of being super fit is amazing for the mind and body. I think she destroys Linette (who really moves badly to the backhand side, and was a bundle of nerves against Alexandrova. ).  Open up the court to the forehand, and then take advantage of the backhand. I think you see that pattern all match. Under 20 games here. Just too much power hitting from Pliskova. Similar to Pegula dominating her opponents in 5/8 sets and not dropping a set so far.

For me those two will be in the final.

Ostapenko does not convince me at all. Has  had a very easy passage through, with no top quality opponents (Yastremska, Bondar, Baindl, Gauff (who was playing poorly in my opinion  ... she can't win anything until she sorts out her forehand.  At the elite level her forehand is as obvious a bad shot as Berettinis backhand) . Ostapenko went through a stage where she lost a lot of sets quite badly, and I think a repeat is on the cards here. Rybakina has a crazy weapon in the woman's game that so few players have. Her serve is a dominant 1-2 setup weapon and if it works (no reason why it should not) its a done deal. Once she is winning that serve easily, she can go to town on the return games. Then the game flows and a demolition happens.

For me the only tricky match is Vekic and Sabalenka. Will Sabalenka's serve disintegrate when the pressure is on? I think she has been working hard on it. That weird open racquet in the middle of the motion (behind the back) is gone.  To make a slight change like that requires excellent coaches, and a mountain of practice. Serve 500 serves every day for a month, and see how that shot improves (why don't woman pros's do that?) Practice and muscle memory makes the serve so much better and far more repeatable.  Sabalenka's serve holds up here and she overpowers Vekic.

from the Guardian...https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/23/aryna-sabalenka-serves-up-a-storm-at-australian-open-after-biomechanics-help

“I was, in that moment, open for whatever. I was just like, ‘Please, someone help me to fix this f--k--g serve,’” said Sabalenka."

 

I got two phone calls today. One from Pliskova and another from Pegula. Both said they will pay me not to bet on them, and pleaded for me to remove any money I had staked on them. Both said they are avid Punters lounge visitors. They both exhibited a lot of desperation and were really pleading with me to bet $2 on Sabalenka ... ???

Edited January 23, 2023 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

I'm really hoping that Pegula can deliver for me in the last match for the bet to come in, and she really should get the job done against Azarenka, who was struggling somewhat in the last round, and who I don't really rate in the top tier anymore. I was quite surprised by how easy Sabalenka had it yesterday, but it's worth noting that her DF problem did creep back in a little bit after not being present in the previous matches.

What's even crazier is the H2H between the two - 5-1 for Vekic! Granted, most of those were before Sabalenka was actually good, but still, it's not entirely without relevance.

[owenclass]

I like the Pegula bet. I think she has a great chance of winning the whole thing

[CzechPunter]

Well, what a tournament, eh!

[amity]

That is one godawful performance from Pegula ?‍♂️

[delfino]

Good evening.

First of all, Sinner lost the match but not the other way, that Tsitsipas won. 

Tomorrow : Lehetsca vs Tsitsipas

I like the Czech Lecheca too mch. Personally i combine players game together what i hear from them in talking. Yes, i like this guy Lechesca. Apart from this, i watched him playing against Aliassime and he was very capable. 

I can't imagine that a player with just half backhand - very weak one, but Sinner was tactically mistaken to target all the time Tsitsipas backhand- 

I mean, backhand is his weakness, but it is not useless. He returns the ball 90% of times. Here we compare a very strong forehand and we say that Tsitsipas has weakness in backhand. 

My advise to Lechesca is simple : Don't target tactically and systematically the Tsitsipas backhand, because you will lose the match.

Play as you did against Alliasime- i don;t fancy a lot the Canadian btw- and you will stay in the match till the end.

That's all!

 

[delfino]

Just now, delfino said:

Good evening.

First of all, Sinner lost the match but not the other way, that Tsitsipas won. 

Tomorrow : Lehetsca vs Tsitsipas

I like the Czech Lecheca too mch. Personally i combine players game together what i hear from them in talking. Yes, i like this guy Lechesca. Apart from this, i watched him playing against Aliassime and he was very capable. 

I can't imagine that a player with just half backhand - very weak one, but Sinner was tactically mistaken to target all the time Tsitsipas backhand- 

I mean, backhand is his weakness, but it is not useless. He returns the ball 90% of times. Here we compare a very strong forehand and we say that Tsitsipas has weakness in backhand. 

My advise to Lechesca is simple : Don't target tactically and systematically the Tsitsipas backhand, because you will lose the match.

Play as you did against Alliasime- i don;t fancy a lot the Canadian btw- and you will stay in the match till the end.

That's all!

 

O mean today in half hour!

[delfino]

Just now, delfino said:

O mean today in half hour!

I just wrote it last night but i forgot to post it!

Just now, delfino said:

O mean today in half hour!

 

[Robinnho]

Pegula loss caused me dearly on my accumulator with football and basketball bets! (Already won last night)

Edited January 24, 2023 by Robinnho
Add info.

[neilovan]

7 hours ago, delfino said:

I just wrote it last night but i forgot to post it!

 

Would have been better if you forgot to bet it.

For me Aussie open has been a bad betting experience. Feel kind of cursed, starting in the 1st round with Berrettini, who missed an egg on match point, going on to Kokkinakis with 2 match points, Wawrinka blowing it against Molcan, onto Tiafoe (6-1 up in the 4th set tiebreak), Fritz losing to Popyrin, Hurkacz being 5-5 15-40 up in the 5th and losing to Korda, Alexandrova playing beyond awful, De Minaur reeling off 10 of 12 games just as I cashed out. and the cherry on the top , Pegula, who just played terrible tennis. She got annoyed and gave up which is really really poor.

There were so few underdog betting opportunities for my software, and a sample size of 9 matches is useless. Could win 7 and think you have won the lottery, or lose 7 and feel that it does not work. Sometimes just easier to make a strategic withdrawal (called a retreat) , sleep in late and just observe the freak results show from afar. I'll be happy when the Aussie open is done.

Absolutely no doubt in my mind, that lower quality events, have far bigger scope, and way more opportunities for betting on underdogs. Nobody really cares when they come to play a 125K event. It is just better than the practice courts, and have players ranked between 50 and 140 opens up all kinds of possibilities.

Edited January 24, 2023 by neilovan

[owenclass]

Well i think it should be a Sabakenka Tommy Paul double today

Edited January 25, 2023 by owenclass