Australian Open 2023

[888888]

For Rublev Djoko I am hesitating between taking Djoko 3-0 or Rublev greater number of aces , both at around 1,90

 

[neilovan]

I gotta write this because I don't like Djoko. 

For me Rublev is a better version of De Minaur. But quite a similar game style. But realistically none of these players (maybe Khachanov) can go toe-to-toe with Djoko from the baseline. They all try and take him on in a game style that is so suited for his style. Was hoping that Tiafoe (just dynamic and different) or Fritz (with the huge server) would get there because I think they have the ability and  weapons to take him deep. The others, I don't give them much of a chance.

You know exactly what's coming from Rublev. Same old game that probably fails. At some point he's gonna get so frustrated and go bananas. Not if, just when. If Djoko plays similar to how he played against de Minaur, then this could be a blow out.   For me Djoko with too many guns, slowly constricts and then finishes Rublev off.  I like the under 35.5 games here, in what I think is a straight sets 6-4 6-3 6-2/3  stroll for Djoko.

[888888]

 " At some point he's gonna get so frustrated and go bananas. "  Watching him lose his mind and go insane is one of the most entertaining thing when watching him play ha ha 

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, 888888 said:

 " At some point he's gonna get so frustrated and go bananas. "  Watching him lose his mind and go insane is one of the most entertaining thing when watching him play ha ha 

I actually think Rublev would be great company and a very interesting drinking buddy. You can see he is a smart guy, and he's definitely gonna raise the level of conversation. It would always be an interesting night out!

[888888]

28 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I actually think Rublev would be great company and a very interesting drinking buddy. You can see he is a smart guy, and he's definitely gonna raise the level of conversation. It would always be an interesting night out!

???

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, 888888 said:

???

It's Djokovic's version of the Karate kid.

Wax on (De Minaur), Wax off (Rublev) ...

[Foo_Fighter]

Marcelo Tomas Barrios to beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 3.00 with bet365 (Concepción, Chile ATP Challenger)

Well MTB has done it before, and this is his home soil, so, why not doing it again? I think there's value on the Chilean, especially with the prospect of a potential cash out if things go his way early on.

[raduvlad1995]

I have 1,40 tsitsipas and 3.05 khachanov on unibet , doesn t tsitsipas's odd seem too high when khachanov is priced at 3 ,05 ?

[amity]

I get that Djoker is the big favourite to win the title at this point but I can't be having Tommy Paul at 33/1 (with Paddy Power) to win the whole thing, particularly when there's a chance (small I admit) that Novak's injury flares up again. Small wager obviously (also as I have a bigger bet from earlier for Novak to win the title!)

?

[Foo_Fighter]

1 hour ago, raduvlad1995 said:

I have 1,40 tsitsipas and 3.05 khachanov on unibet , doesn t tsitsipas's odd seem too high when khachanov is priced at 3 ,05 ?

No.

[Foo_Fighter]

48 minutes ago, amity said:

I get that Djoker is the big favourite to win the title at this point but I can't be having Tommy Paul at 33/1 (with Paddy Power) to win the whole thing, particularly when there's a chance (small I admit) that Novak's injury flares up again. Small wager obviously (also as I have a bigger bet from earlier for Novak to win the title!)

?

I think he might be able to win a set but it's really hard to imagine Tommy Paul beating Djokovic. Well, perhaps only if Novak's injury flares up again as you said.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Foo_Fighter

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

No.

if you say so...I ve never seen a player having 1,40 odds to win when the other has over 3 but whatever.

[CzechPunter]

Well, Tommy Paul beating Djokovic would be quite the surprise, he's like a worse version of Fritz. I think that only Tsitsipas has a realistic chance, but the only thing I'm hoping for at this point is that we don't have a 3-0 easy final for Djokovic!

[owenclass]

I cant see Sabalenka having any trouble against Linette 

Edited January 26, 2023 by owenclass

[adastra]

4 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

I have 1,40 tsitsipas and 3.05 khachanov on unibet , doesn t tsitsipas's odd seem too high when khachanov is priced at 3 ,05 ?

1/1.40 + 1/3.05 = 1.042

For a surebet, you would need this value to be under 1.000. A single bookmaker's odds always lead to a value bigger than 1. You should always look for the best odds available, by either comparing with other bookmakers or using exchanges.

And despite what others say, it does not make mathematical sense (in terms of the expected value of your return on investment) to use accumulators as they can't be better than using invididual bets. Unless, of course, you are bad at picking value bets and accumulators leading to a smaller overall betting volume. Or if you just want to gamble, I guess, as you always can get lucky. [Well, even if you have positive expectation, the gambling component is huge as you need thousands of bets to draw meaningful conclusions.]

For today, I've picked Tsitsipas to beat Khachanov at effective odds of 1.431. Both play a bit above their typical level, but similar to the US Open (albeit less extreme), Khachanov again got lucky with opponents getting injured. The clear victory over Korda is less impressive than it looks on paper, Korda started to have injury problems in the 4th set against Hurkacz (this is why I'm still convinced my bet was a good one, despite the close outcome) and against Khachanov he even had to retire in the end. Also, while Tsitsipas tends to beat players he should beat (much like Ruud in the US Open against Khachanov), Khachanov has a terrible record as an underdog. Of course, he does have a chance, but in a best of 5 format, I like my odds for a Tsitsipas victory.

Edited January 26, 2023 by adastra

[matrixman]

Kinda think Paul can take a set[+165] from a contrarian point of view.Joker has just dismantled his last two opponents so prob a bit of value on Paul who is  playing with house money so to speak.Why not let it all hang out and go for it? Hes supposed to lose 3-0 in no time right?

[CzechPunter]

Well, it will be a big challenge for him mentally as well, he's not used to these matches, unlike Fritz. But yeah, he's playing with house money, he's the odd one out from the final four!

[owenclass]

What do you think of Tommy Paul winning his semi. Does he have a chance of an upset

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, owenclass said:

What do you think of Tommy Paul winning his semi. Does he have a chance of an upset

Nobody gives Paul a chance against Djoko, but it's just that in Aus, it suites Djoko perfectly. Like Nadal at the French. 

For me Paul has more chance against Djoko than De Minaur and Rublev. He has some weapons. Def a better serve than both of them.

Not looking to get involved here, maybe a v small bet inlay.

[neilovan]

If Khachanov can win the 2nd set it is def game on. He's been playing very well, looks strong and fit. He was excellent v Tiafoe. Mentally looks motivated and in the zone. It's 3-4 khachonov and this game is critical.

[adastra]

I managed to get effective 58.8 for Tommy Paul to win it all before the Tsitsipas-Khachanov match started. Strangely the market seemed to assume Khachanov being a significantly better player than Paul which I don't think is true.

Such a bet as well as Tommy Paul beating Djokovic at 14.x (or even a bit lower) might still be value as we cannot completely ignore injury concerns. I don't like the idea of betting on Paul to win a set, though, as some of such matches will have Djokovic suffring from injury and some of such bets would be void due to Djokovic retiring. 

By the way, I don't think at all of Paul being a great server or a weaker version of Fritz. Fritz has a much better serve and is good at hitting powerful winners whereas Paul is better at defending and much better at creating angles (which could trouble an injured Djokovic).

Yeah, betting on Paul is largely betting on Djokovic getting somewhat injured, the most likely result is 3-0 Djokovic.

Edited January 27, 2023 by adastra

[neilovan]

14 minutes ago, adastra said:

I managed to get effective 58.8 for Tommy Paul to win it all before the Tsitsipas-Khachanov match started. Strangely the market seemed to assume Khachanov being a significantly better player than Paul which I don't think is true.

Such a bet as well as Tommy Paul beating Djokovic at 14.x (or even a bit lower) might still be value as we cannot completely ignore injury concerns. I don't like the idea of betting on Paul to win a set, though, as some of such matches will have Djokovic suffring from injury and some of such bets would be void due to Djokovic retiring. 

By the way, I don't think at all of Paul being a great server or a weaker version of Fritz. Fritz has a much better serve and is good at hitting powerful winners whereas Paul is better at defending and much better at creating angles (which could trouble an injured Djokovic).

Yeah, betting on Paul is largely betting on Djokovic getting somewhat injured, the most likely result is 3-0 Djokovic.

Djoko has swept all before him. Only set lost was against a qualifier in round 2. Closest opponent he has played (in style to Paul), would be Gregor Dimitrov and he won 7-6 6-4 6-3. I expect a close 1st set, and then a similar score line here.

 

I do like Sabalenka in the woman's. Only thing that was holding her back was the crazy double faults and she has worked hard and fixed it. She has the potential to win 2  majors this year. WImbledon will suite her serve and the US open will be similar to the Aussie. For me she is a better athlete than Rybakina, and she will enjoy the pace on the ball. Her serve has the potential to be as dominant a weapon as Serena's was for all those years.  

[CzechPunter]

I honestly have a different opinion on the women's. Rybakina seems far more reliable mentally, she has a GS title under her belt, and her motions, service or otherwise, look less likely to break down than Sabalenka's. The DF problem has been mitigated somewhat, but it most certainly hasn't been eliminated, at least not from what I saw in her match against Bencic.

[Foo_Fighter]

7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I honestly have a different opinion on the women's. Rybakina seems far more reliable mentally, she has a GS title under her belt, and her motions, service or otherwise, look less likely to break down than Sabalenka's. The DF problem has been mitigated somewhat, but it most certainly hasn't been eliminated, at least not from what I saw in her match against Bencic.

Couldn't agree more. Rybakina is the best women's tennis player in the world right now. Just look at the level she has played throughout the tournament.

[neilovan]

4 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Couldn't agree more. Rybakina is the best women's tennis player in the world right now. Just look at the level she has played throughout the tournament.

I don't think Rybakina moves well, but with both of them the game quality is dictated by the serve. It's such a different game to that of the average woman player, who battles to hold serve.

Not a blowout either way, but Sabalenka has not lost a match all year, and has not dropped a set this tournament. She also owns a 3-0 record against Rybakina.

 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by neilovan

[Foo_Fighter]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

I don't think Rybakina moves well, but with both of them the game quality is dictated by the serve. It's such a different game to that of the average woman player, who battles to hold serve.

Not a blowout either way, but Sabalenka has not lost a match all year, and has not dropped a set this tournament. She also owns a 3-0 record against Rybakina.

 

 

a 3-1 record.

[apeman666]

Forget stats for womens final, what does everyone’s gut say?

[Foo_Fighter]

4 hours ago, apeman666 said:

Forget stats for womens final, what does everyone’s gut say?

Elena Rybakina, plain and simple.

[CzechPunter]

My gut says Rybakina as well. At least one of us wins, @neilovan?!

[neilovan]

7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

My gut says Rybakina as well. At least one of us wins, @neilovan?!

Really nothing in it, just a couple of points here and there. Was very impressed with Sabalenka's serve. It held up, except for 1 double on match point. In previous years she would have served 10 doubles in the 3rd set.

Probably with Swiatek, these two will form a very tough trio, and could dominate woman's tennis for years. Maybe just below are Garcia and Badosa.

The balls are quite an issue at the AO. Dunlop are making a strange ball that fluffs up quickly (4 games). Big servers don't like it, as it slows the ball down through the air. But Djoko loves it. Just is perfect for his game.

I am not a big fan of players who don't work hard on their game. Hey, you are a professional. You owe it to yourself to really work hard and improve constantly. Look at the players who have stayed similar in the last few years ...

Medvedev (game hastotally stagnated and could even have gone backwards). De Minaur , Ruud, Rublev, Hurkacz, Cilic, Norrie, Berrettini, Carreno Busta. Their games are already maxed out. 

But I like the up and comers. Tiafoe, Fritz, Alcaraz, Rune. Alcaraz is really a rough diamond. His game is so raw, and when he smoothes it out and gets rid of the rough edges he will be phenomenal. He is #1 and he has enormous scope for improvement.There is so much more to come from them. And I gotta include Tsitsipas in this group.

He is bigger and stronger, serving really well, backhand is better, net-play is developing, and moving very well for a big guy. Always had a couple of emotional issues, where he could lose his concentration and focus, but you can see the effort he has put in. 

Tsitsipas can cause an upset. It was strange yesterday to see Djokovic 5-1 in the 1st set and then barley get over the line. He is vulnerable, and the crowd will be more for Tsitsipas than him. I definitely think that at worst Tsitsipas wins a set. For me a small bet on Tsitsipas to win at 38 to 10 ... can't get too involved, have a mini tennis tournament tomorrow myself.

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by neilovan