Australian Open 2023

[neilovan]

The Aussie Open has been the first big tournament where I have been testing underdog software. My conclusion is this;

When there is so much money in play (relative to the rest of the year), nearly every player who shows up at the Aussie Open is bringing the best version of themselves (attitude, preparation, motivation, match readiness and mentality) and the best version of their game. The majors are the 4 periods of the year when there is huge money to be earned, and nobody wants to be unprepared, and miss a potential big earning opportunity.

It's a far cry from some mickey mouse (relative WTA125) tournament such as WTA125 Hobart, Adelaide, Auckland etc. In these situations, the fields are weaker, the gap between the abilities of the favorites and underdogs are generally much smaller, and players arrive in various stages of being unprepared. Jet lag, long flight, no competitive matches for 4 weeks, low motivation, overdoing it at Christmas, not match fit etc etc  ... with not much prize money on offer. These are the tournaments where the UNDERDOGS have their day. Most players are easing in, finding their feet and getting acclimated. The mentioned factors definitely close the gap between the dogs and the favs, and this is when betting on underdogs is going to be more profitable.

So it's far more difficult to bet profitably against a prepared and ready favorite, who is motivated to win a couple of matches and get a juicy payday. A prepared, motivated, rested, non jet lagged top 40 player is probably gonna get it done against a much lower ranked player (at the majors and any 500 or 1000 level tourn ).  And in my opinion the scores reflect it. Go to flash score and look at how many expected favorites really battered their opposition today.  It's all over the place. 6-1,  6-0 and 6-2 sets are common place.

So looking for underdog wins may not be quite the way to go at the majors, but will probably prove far more profitable over the rest of the year, especially at the smaller, low quality tournaments.

Edited January 17, 2023 by neilovan

[neilovan]

No bets for tomorrow in the underdogs section. Quite frustrating, thought there would be far more

Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02) LOSS

Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98) WIN

JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier) BAD LOSS

So lost 7 units and won 3.43  for a net of -3.57 on 10.5 units bet. Early days with a small sample size.

Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens for 3.5 units)  .  SO at this stage 4 bets win rate 50% loss would be 0.07 over 14 units which is nothing either way.   

Cornet to beat L Fernandez  2.37 (or 13.7 to 10   for  Stake 5 units)  . So now -5.07 units in 19.7 units bet, with a win rate of 40%

[neilovan]

I don't see much to get too excited by tomorrow. May even sleep in.

I think Harris showed some solid grit in beating Mussetti, and I think he may have a little too much for Fucsovics. That quick motion serve is just so tricky to read, and I think it will carry him over the line here. For me Mussetti far superior to Fucsovics who has turned into a vanilla journeyman.

I also quite like Jiri Lehecka who definitely has improved since I last watched him (I think he played in the NextGen finals). He is big and strong and has some game.  For me he gets past Eubanks relatively easily.

I watched both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp in the warm up tournaments. Griekspoor definitely with better form at the moment. van de Zandschulp been digging himself out of difficult situations. Griekspoor to win here.

Will just take a 3 legged treble which prob works out close to 4.2 to 1 for a couple of units. Not getting involved.

Edited January 17, 2023 by neilovan

[neilovan]

As for the men's championships. I think picking the winner is quite easy. Whoever wins has to beat Djokovic. So go through the possibilities and se who could possibly do it.

1st section (Nadal, Medvedev and Tiafoe) is probably Medvedev and Tiafoe in quarters.

2nd section is probably between Sinner and Auger Aliasimme (Sinner for me).

3rd Section Djokovic probably plays Holger Rune, who gets past Rublev..  

4th section is Fritz and Ruud in the quarters for me. 

 

Nadal (No) . He looks tired and worn out. I don't think he gets to the quarter finals.

Auger-Aliasimme (No) Guy is very strong but his court craft and decision making is horrible.

Hurkacz (No) just a dull strange version of Thomas Berdych for me. Can't do it.

Ruud (No) decent but no spark to be able to trouble Djoko.

Zverev (No). Mentally not ready after his injury. 3 wins will be significant for him.

 

For me the winner (excluding Djokovic) has to come from Sinner, Tiafoe or Fritz. None of the others can beat him.

Edited January 17, 2023 by neilovan

[amity]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

As for the men's championships. I think picking the winner is quite easy. Whoever wins has to beat Djokovic. So go through the possibilities and se who could possibly do it.

1st section (Nadal, Medvedev and Tiafoe) is probably Medvedev and Tiafoe in quarters.

2nd section is probably between Sinner and Auger Aliasimme (Sinner for me).

3rd Section Djokovic probably plays Holger Rune, who gets past Rublev..  

4th section is Fritz and Ruud in the quarters for me. 

 

Nadal (No) . He looks tired and worn out. I don't think he gets to the quarter finals.

Auger-Aliasimme (No) Guy is very strong but his court craft and decision making is horrible.

Hurkacz (No) just a dull strange version of Thomas Berdych for me. Can't do it.

Ruud (No) decent but no spark to be able to trouble Djoko.

Zverev (No). Mentally not ready after his injury. 3 wins will be significant for him.

 

For me the winner (excluding Djokovic) has to come from Sinner, Tiafoe or Fritz. None of the others can beat him.

Good analysis mate. Personally I don't think Tiafoe is mentally strong enough to beat Djoker on the big stage, but I agree that he should be making the quarters.

Sinner always surprises me, for a guy who hasn't got the same kind of physique as most of the rest of the top tier, he still manages to compete well with them and against them for the most part. 

Of the three, Fritz is the one who I think could challenge Novak, he's getting stronger every year and I expect he will win a few GSs over the next five years or so.

Still though, it's hard to look past the Serb, it'll take a serious performance from any of the aforementioned to overcome him.

Edited January 17, 2023 by amity

[CzechPunter]

The problem with Fritz is that it's really hard to keep serving well for the entire GS match, as someone like Djokovic will start figuring things out at least a little bit over time, and how many times can you realistically break someone like Djokovic if you're Fritz? Once or twice, possibly, but that most likely won't be enough. In the BO3 format, that's much easier to do, as Isner showed a couple of times against some of the biggest names, but yeah, it's incredibly difficult. I would add Medvedev to your list @neilovan, really, he has the game, and I think he would have a slightly better shot than Fritz. Nadal looks really poor physically, which is seriously unlike him, can't see him doing much away from clay anymore, and it will probably be difficult even there if Djokovic is present.

[Foo_Fighter]

Karolina Muchova to beat Danielle Collins at 2.37 with bet365

Mayar Sherif to win a set against Magda Linette at 2 with bet365

Albert Ramos-Vinolas to win set 4 against Maxime Cressy at 2.2 with bet365

I think there's significant value on these three picks. Let's see what happens. ?

[Doedelzak]

I like to just watch the first round of tournaments before I shell out any cash. At least in the 2nd round you are looking at players who not only played recently, but you are also seeing players who won there last match and you can analyise how. I am in agreement with Neilovan regarding Jiri Lehecka and I think the price is fair however, I have asked for a bigger price on the exchange and expect to get matched. 

I was impressed with Belinda Bencic straights sets performance today she looks one to follow ... weather permitting. Not looking great weather wise for today, Thinking of just going to bed and watch the action in the morning. 

[neilovan]

I think Radacanu gets beaten quite easily by Gauff.  Something pretty straight forward like 6-2 and 6-3. She will probably retire if she is losing (again).

Gauff impoving, Radacanu kind of going backwards. Can't read too much into her match against Korpatsch. Korpatsch pretty poor, essentially her final was making the main draw. $75K helps. But she has no game. Can't win anything losing serve 7 times in 9 attempts.

I think Claire Lui has an easy time with Madison Brengle in a rain interrupted match from yesterday. 1.36 seems fair . For me, Beatrice Haddad-Maia at 1.2 is a gift over Parrizas-Dias.

Will take an 8 unit bet on the treble.

[neilovan]

16 hours ago, neilovan said:

I don't see much to get too excited by tomorrow. May even sleep in.

I think Harris showed some solid grit in beating Mussetti, and I think he may have a little too much for Fucsovics. That quick motion serve is just so tricky to read, and I think it will carry him over the line here. For me Mussetti far superior to Fucsovics who has turned into a vanilla journeyman.

I also quite like Jiri Lehecka who definitely has improved since I last watched him (I think he played in the NextGen finals). He is big and strong and has some game.  For me he gets past Eubanks relatively easily.

I watched both Griekspoor and van de Zandschulp in the warm up tournaments. Griekspoor definitely with better form at the moment. van de Zandschulp been digging himself out of difficult situations. Griekspoor to win here.

Will just take a 3 legged treble which prob works out close to 4.2 to 1 for a couple of units. Not getting involved.

Can't even get past the 1st leg of a parlay for a pittance. Just ask me what my selections are, and then take a loan and do the opposite. You will make a fortune. Good luck, I'm done. This nonsense just creates to much negative energy for me.

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think Radacanu gets beaten quite easily by Gauff.  Something pretty straight forward like 6-2 and 6-3. She will probably retire if she is losing (again).

Gauff impoving, Radacanu kind of going backwards. Can't read too much into her match against Korpatsch. Korpatsch pretty poor, essentially her final was making the main draw. $75K helps. But she has no game. Can't win anything losing serve 7 times in 9 attempts.

I think Claire Lui has an easy time with Madison Brengle in a rain interrupted match from yesterday. 1.36 seems fair . For me, Beatrice Haddad-Maia at 1.2 is a gift over Parrizas-Dias.

Will take an 8 unit bet on the treble.

I watched the Radacanu match. Both of them were useless to be fair, but someone has to win. In the 1st set there were 64 points and there were 34 unforced errors. That is just hopeless tennis.  A good ITF junior under 18 player would clean them up.

Radacanu is all over the place and Gauff cannot hit a consistent forehand. Then watched Kasatkina get destroyed  6-1 6-1. Didn't have anything on her, but that is pretty pathetic, considering she was 1.1 to 10.  Haddad Maia imploding in her match. Is she injured? Maybe saved by the rain. Hopefully she can come back and play better. Frankly, she can't do worse.

[DrO]

I haven't seen Lloyd Harris for a long time..he's current no.186 on rankings.. What happened to him - injury or..?

[neilovan]

30 minutes ago, DrO said:

I haven't seen Lloyd Harris for a long time..he's current no.186 on rankings.. What happened to him - injury or..?

He had elbow surgery

[raduvlad1995]

anyone else thinking that ruud is highly overrated by the bookies against brooksby ?

[CzechPunter]

Well, we're going in the same direction @neilovan! Unfortunate, but happens. Brooksby certainly has the potential to upset Ruud @raduvlad1995, but I haven't seen either in the first round.

 

[raduvlad1995]

34 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, we're going in the same direction @neilovan! Unfortunate, but happens. Brooksby certainly has the potential to upset Ruud @raduvlad1995, but I haven't seen either in the first round.

 

I don t realy care about ruud getting upset(I like his game far more than brooksby's) . I was more thinking along the line of brooksby taking atleast a set.

[CzechPunter]

That seems very possible, Machac even had some chances to take it to a decider if I remember correctly, so Brooksby should have chances to win a set as well.

[neilovan]

So as for the underdogs.

5 bets 3 losses 2 wins so far.  So now -5.07 units in 19.7 units bet

Gracheva to lose to Stefanini   (16.2 to 10 for 2 units)

Ons Jabeur to lose to Vondrousova   (11 to 10 for 3.5 units)

Humbert to lose to Kudla   (17.5 to 10 for 2 units)

Mertens to lose to Davis (11 to 10 for 3.5 units)

Edited January 18, 2023 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Well, we kept hyping Fritz only for Popyrin to beat him!

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, we kept hyping Fritz only for Popyrin to beat him!

saw that one coming , popyrin has a big game also and obviously plays above his level in australia....you think de minaur could still win against mannarino ?

[neilovan]

47 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

saw that one coming , popyrin has a big game also and obviously plays above his level in australia....you think de minaur could still win against mannarino ?

De Minaur is a joke. His game is so 1 dimensional. He was 17 to 100 before the match started.

Does the same thing over and over and over again. Never comes to net, never hits a drop shot. I don't know why he has coaches because they change and improve nothing. I think he will just get over the line (now there is the kiss of death), but it's a boring match 

Pile it on Mannarino ?  . If I am betting de Minaur, Mannarino cannot LOSE!

De Minaur must have a space for rent sign where his brain should be. I should be so lucky.

I Just cashed out my bet at a tiny loss. Not prepared to risk anything on this clown. I thought de Minaur would have improved, and with the Aussie crowd would have to much for Mannarino, De Minaur just a marathon running journeyman, plodder.

 

Now that I cashed out, this clown will prob run off 13 games in a row.

 

Not quite but 4 of the next 5.  I have some form going ...

Fruhvirtova, Linda1.14
Birrell, Kimberly v Fruhvirtova, Linda
Winner |

Live In Play

 

 

Aus Open Singles (W)

 

 

Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 2 - 6

 

2023-01-19 07:00

Garcia, Caroline1.42
Fernandez, Leylah Annie v Garcia, Caroline
Winner
Aus Open Singles (W)

 

 

Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 5 - 7

 

2023-01-19 08:05

De Minaur, Alex1.17
Mannarino, Adrian v de Minaur, Alex
Winner
Aus Open Singles (M)

 

 

3rd set | Total Sets: 1 - 1 | Game Score: 3 - 2

 

2023-01-19 10:00

Edited January 19, 2023 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

De Minaur is a joke. His game is so 1 dimensional. He was 17 to 100 before the match started.

Does the same thing over and over and over again. Never comes to net, never hits a drop shot. I don't know why he has coaches because they change and improve nothing. I think he will just get over the line (now there is the kiss of death), but it's a boring match 

Pile it on Mannarino ?  . If I am betting de Minaur, Mannarino cannot LOSE!

De Minaur must have a space for rent sign where his brain should be. I should be so lucky.

I Just cashed out my bet at a tiny loss. Not prepared to risk anything on this clown. I thought de Minaur would have improved, and with the Aussie crowd would have to much for Mannarino, De Minaur just a marathon running journeyman, plodder.

 

Now that I cashed out, this clown will prob run off 13 games in a row.

 

Not quite but 4 of the next 5.  I have some form going ...

Fruhvirtova, Linda1.14
Birrell, Kimberly v Fruhvirtova, Linda
Winner |

Live In Play

 

 

Aus Open Singles (W)

 

 

Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 2 - 6

 

2023-01-19 07:00

Garcia, Caroline1.42
Fernandez, Leylah Annie v Garcia, Caroline
Winner
Aus Open Singles (W)

 

 

Ended | Total Sets: 0 - 2 | Game Score: 5 - 7

 

2023-01-19 08:05

De Minaur, Alex1.17
Mannarino, Adrian v de Minaur, Alex
Winner
Aus Open Singles (M)

 

 

3rd set | Total Sets: 1 - 1 | Game Score: 3 - 2

 

2023-01-19 10:00

yeah I cashed out on him also since unibet gave me a solid cashout on my ticket. I don t think he's anywhere near as bad as you make him out to be, he s actualy got some good net skills but not the power required to get up there often. Manarino is always hard to beat on this surface if he s in good form.

[MinellaWorksop]

Murray vs Kokkinakis, they're still playing at nearly 4am in the morning Melbourne time!? (If I looked it up correctly) . That is bonkers lol.

[CzechPunter]

It's even more bonkers that Mr. Metal Hip won two five-setters in a row!

[Grass Cash]

anyone betting the Khachanov - Tiafoe match that starts in 30 minutes or so?

[Grass Cash]

I feel like there's only one side in this match but curious what you guys thought 

[CzechPunter]

I'd side with Tiafoe if pressed.

[Grass Cash]

Very hard to disagree with that. I am also on the Tiafoe side, but yet to bet

 

I am tempted to just watch it and weep after Tiafoe wins.. I've lost on him too many times. 

Edited January 20, 2023 by money44

[CzechPunter]

I'm not really on his side, haha! Just wouldn't want to be on Khachanov, but the H2H would scare me from backing Tiafoe. 

[raduvlad1995]

wow korda is playing some insane tennis