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Australian Open 2023


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Well, she has a potentially tricky draw in the first round, she dropped a set against Niemeier the last time out, and that was when her own form wasn't in any doubt. She should get better as she progresses as always, though, so the start is important. She definitely has what it takes to win the entire thing, but I wouldn't necessarily trust her. I have an inkling that one of the big hitters might win this time around.

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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, she has a potentially tricky draw in the first round, she dropped a set against Niemeier the last time out, and that was when her own form wasn't in any doubt. She should get better as she progresses as always, though, so the start is important. She definitely has what it takes to win the entire thing, but I wouldn't necessarily trust her. I have an inkling that one of the big hitters might win this time around.

Yes I belive that's true. I have a looming feeling that Iga goes out somewhere around quarterfinals. She potentially can face Coco in the QF and Pegula in semi.

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Lotta value on Pella.He might be my #1 upset pick of the mens 1st round.

 

rodina for the women.

 

As per usual the best value for futures for this is in the ‚Äúto win Quarter‚ÄĚmarket with these two huge faves in joker and Iga to win it.

 

So on the women Im going with

Rodgers at 66-1 to win her Q

Golubic at 66-1

Bouzkova at 40-1

 

Havent looked at the men yet.

 

 

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Looking forward to the Aussie open tomorrow.

I do have some early round betting in the majors that people tend to disagree with. But my feeling is that in certain situations you must take the overwhelming odds on the overwhelming favorites, in small parlays for small medium stakes. The parlay below gives 12 to 10 which is fine for me. I really don't feel that there is much danger with these picks. Also, understand that over a best of 5 set match, the favorites percentage of winning increases by about 5%. It is just harder for a weaker player to maintain a winning standard for the 3 sets required for the win. So I prefer to make these types of parlay's in the ATP because of the 5 set matches.

Multibet (4) 2.20
2:0   1.26  Pegula, Jessica v Cristian, Jaqueline Adina  Correct Set Score  Aus Open Singles (W)   2023-01-16 02:00
Wawrinka, Stan1.21  Molcan, Alex v Wawrinka, Stan  Winner   Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-16 06:30
Evans, Daniel  1.11  Bagnis, Facundo v Evans, Daniel  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00
Rublev, Andrey  1.30 Rublev, Andrey v Thiem, Dominic  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00

Parlay gives 16 to 10

 Multibet (6) 2.60
Tiafoe, Frances1.13 Altmaier, Daniel v Tiafoe, Frances  Winner  Aus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-16 03:15
Auger-Aliassime, Felix1.08  Pospisil, Vasek v Auger-Aliassime, Felix Winner Aus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 07:45
Tsitsipas, Stefanos1.16  Tsitsipas, Stefanos v Halys, QuentinWinnerAus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 10:00
Berrettini, Matteo1.30 Berrettini, Matteo v Murray, AndyWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00
Kokkinakis, Thanasi1.22 Kokkinakis, Thanasi v Fognini, FabioWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00
Kyrgios, Nick1.16 Kyrgios, Nick v Safiullin, RomanWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00
 
 
Edited by neilovan
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Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid.  Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story    Pegula's demolition of Swiatek  was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne"  (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery :) session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.

OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world.  I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.

I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13  to 10 I only need around a  46% strike rate to win.

Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02)

Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98)

JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier)

Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens)

I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally.  In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.

We'll see what happens but I am confident.

Edited by neilovan
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Polina Kudermetova to beat Olivia Gadecki at 1.53 with William Hill

Gadecki might have the home conditions on her side, but that's about it. She's done nothing so far in this season, while Kudermetova went past the qualifying here, beating three very solid players - arguably all better than Gadecki - in Gasanova, Boulter, and Muhammad.

Xinyu Wang to beat Storm Hunter at 1.67 with Unibet

Cool name now for the former Storm Sanders, but I think she's a level below Wang, and the Chinese are usually well-prepared for the Australian Open if I remember the previous years correctly. Their only previous meeting was easy for Wang, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same here.

Jessica Pegula to win the 2nd Quarter at 3.10 with Bet365

I agree with @neilovan about Pegula, and she looks above the rest of her quarter, with Sakkari not being in a particularly good nick during the preparatory events. At 3.10, I'm definitely happy to take a bit for her to go better than Krejcikova, Keys, etc.

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Been following the qualifiers for the Australian Open and I noticed the young starlet that is Sara Bejlek made it through to the first round.

Anyone who remembers the US Open thread, will remember I went all in on Bejlek to win her quarter, the tournament and first round matchup. Unfortunately she then proceeded to lose said first round matchup lol.

Though, I am keeping the faith. She won all her qualifiers as the underdog in the betting and looking at the rankings of players she did beat she certainly excelled herself.

Now, more than likely she loses in the first round again, this time against fellow Czech countrywoman Krejcikova. But you never know in sport so with her progressive profile and admittedly my complete blind faith in the Bejlek I have backed her to win at 4.50 and also gone with her to win her quarter at 151.00

Also, after reading comments on here having slight doubts about Miss Swiatek, I have decided to oppose her and go with Miss Niemeier at odds of 8.00

All prices Bet365

Other than that, I will be following the excellent posters on here, so i wish you all good luck and here's to enjoying some top quality tennis action.

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18 hours ago, neilovan said:

RE: WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs.

Paula Badosa, who was seeded 11th at Melbourne Park, withdrew from the Australian Open on Saturday because of injuries.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Doedelzak said:

 

Did not know, so thanks. No good watching tennis at 4am (for me) gonna make a hectic workday. Not many surprises so far. Pegula pretty good, Bouzkova not so ( unable yo break serve once in a woman's match is not very good). Had her chance at 3-3 2nd 15-40 and did not take it,  See Collins and van de Zabdschulp struggling which is surprising, but coming through in the end.

Auger-Aliasimme starting off 0-5 down is so bizarre it's quite funny. Against the Popsicle ... insane. He can only get better¬†ūü§ę¬†He is still 4.4 to 10 on bet365.

Stan looks injured. Leoliia JeanJean playing an awful match, which makes a mockery of her 1.9 starting odds¬† ūüė¨¬†. SOftware really did not have many of these totally one sided¬† blow outs. Maybe 4 in 39 games so this is an odd one.¬†

 

Edited by neilovan
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SO a 1st day, somewhat underwhelming.

Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02) LOSS

Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98) WIN

JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier) BAD LOSS

So lost 7 units and won 3.43  for a net of -3.57 on 10.5 units bet. Early days with a small sample size.

Wawrinka bombed one of my parlay's, though he did serve for the match 2-1 up in sets and 5-4.

Only two predictions for tomorrow. Seems like the software prefers low level WTA 125 tournaments. Weaker players, lower ranked who are more inconsistent.

Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens for 3.5 units)

Cornet to beat L Fernandez  2.37 (or 13.7 to 10   for  Stake 5 units)

 

That Blinkova at it again. Against Davis last match is 3-0 up, then manages to lose 10 of the next 11 games and blow the  match. Exactly the same in her match now on against Keys. Literally lost 6 games in a row after being up 4-0 or 4-1. Bizarre. Medvedev mincing Giron in a snooze fest, Harris disintegrating against Musetti, and Auger Aliasimme plodding over the line. Quite a dull day of tennis.

Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, DrO said:

The famous outfit of Dominik Hrbaty, from 20 years ago, finally got a worthy successor

FmkJRNxXoAAS1f8?format=jpg&name=small

:loon

Its like they washed all the colors with the whites, and then he got dressed in the dark.

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Martina Trevisan to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 1.91 with William Hill

Schmiedlova did well to qualify here, but I think that she's the worse player of the two by a fair enough margin, so I wouldn't have Trevisan above 1.60 or so. Her 2023 record is not great, to be fair, but she's had to face much stronger opponents than Schmiedlova, and she even managed to beat Sakkari in the United Cup.

Richard Gasquet to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.80 with William Hill

The two met here last year, and Gasquet won in 4 sets as a huge underdog. He's the favourite this year, and rightfully so. Humbert has gone missing last year, and he hasn't started this year all that well, either, while Gasquet is having the time of his life, just free-rolling and beating much stronger players on paper. He'll certainly fancy his chances against his compatriot again.

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Some of this major tennis is just insane. It is 12.30 local time in Melbourne now.

Hsin Tseng and Popyrin are 1 set all

Ruud just lost the 3rd set. 

Seriously, major tennis after midnight is ridiculous. No other sport would accept this!

Finish close to 3am, and by the time the player has warmed down, had ice bath, done media duties it will be closer to 5.30 am. Laughable.

Edited by neilovan
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