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Wimbledon 2022


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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Tough for me to crack the women's finals. Rybakina has the better form and Jabeur has been struggling recently, but do you trust Rybakina's nerves?

I think the main thing to say is that a huge majority of recent Women’s Wimbledon Finals are two-set affairs - 12 out of the last 14 finals in fact. If anyone is struggling to pick a side in this match, then a bet on it being a two-set match is excellent value, at around 8/15 - especially with it being two players who have been nowhere near this stage of a Grand Slam before, as one of them could easily crack under the pressure.

If you do have a potential winner in mind, then much better to take them to win 2-0, as that is the most likely scoreline here. If pushed, I fancy 2-0 Rybakina, at very tasty odds of 5/2.

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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Tough for me to crack the women's finals. Rybakina has the better form and Jabeur has been struggling recently, but do you trust Rybakina's nerves?

What struck me about Rybakina vs Halep was the sheer power of the Kazakh which Halep really struggled with. Truth be told, were it not for Rybakina hitting far too many shots into the net, this could have been a demolition. If she can limit her unforced errors, then I think she's got a real chance against Jabeur.

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11 minutes ago, GhostLetter said:

I think the main thing to say is that a huge majority of recent Women’s Wimbledon Finals are two-set affairs - 12 out of the last 14 finals in fact. If anyone is struggling to pick a side in this match, then a bet on it being a two-set match is excellent value, at around 8/15 - especially with it being two players who have been nowhere near this stage of a Grand Slam before, as one of them could easily crack under the pressure.

If you do have a potential winner in mind, then much better to take them to win 2-0, as that is the most likely scoreline here. If pushed, I fancy 2-0 Rybakina, at very tasty odds of 5/2.

On Paddy Power, you can get Rybakina 2-0 at 3/1 and the special on Ons to win 2-0 is 9/4. 

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56 minutes ago, GhostLetter said:

I think the main thing to say is that a huge majority of recent Women’s Wimbledon Finals are two-set affairs - 12 out of the last 14 finals in fact. If anyone is struggling to pick a side in this match, then a bet on it being a two-set match is excellent value, at around 8/15 - especially with it being two players who have been nowhere near this stage of a Grand Slam before, as one of them could easily crack under the pressure.

If you do have a potential winner in mind, then much better to take them to win 2-0, as that is the most likely scoreline here. If pushed, I fancy 2-0 Rybakina, at very tasty odds of 5/2.

On the one hand I agree with this rationale, but on the other I wonder if this year will buck the trend of routine wins. I say that because of the contrast in styles that will be on show, where I can imagine an ebb and flow where power and guile take turns for superiority as the match unfolds.

The great intangible of course is how each player will cope with the pressure of arguably the biggest match in tennis and I think they'll both struggle at times. My feeling is that Jabeur deserves to be the favourite, because she has more tools in her box. If her serve breaks down there are other facets of her game that can prop it up, whereas for Rybakina if she doesn't serve well it's very difficult to see her winning because her game is so dependent on it and it often sets the tone for the rest of her play.

With all of the above in mind, I'm taking a boost at 365 about Jabeur winning a long match whilst hitting at least three aces. Rybakina is the better server but Jabeur's not too shabby from the service line and should get a few aces of her own, particularly if the match goes long. I'm also taking another boost on 365 based on Jabeur winning and being able to get a few breaks of serve. As strong as Rybakina is, Jabeur is a fine returner and that's before the possibility that Rybakina doesn't serve as well as she can.

EDIT: There's a boost on Betfair that's similar to the other bets but with lower odds and so a better chance of winning. I'll have some of that as well and start crossing my fingers as all my eggs are in the Jabeur basket.

10pts Ons Jabeur breaks serve first, wins the first set and wins the match @ 2.25

10pts 3+ Aces in the Match for Ons Jabeur, Ons Jabeur will win the Match and Over 22.5 Games in the Match @ 5.50

10pts Ons Jabeur to win Set 1 6-3 or 6-4, Ons Jabeur Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve in the Match and Ons Jabeur will win the Match @ 7.50

Edited by Torque
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Rybakina vs Jabeur

I think both have played confidently well throught this tournament and should come together to provide us the final that we expect. This certainly seems the right surface for Rybakina who has the sort of robust game to put anyone to the sword. I think her whole game found completeness in the last roundwhere she finally employed the ingredient that was always missing - Balls! This is what has stopped Karolina Pliskova from reaching the top - with a laid back game and indifferent attitude during the match. Whether Rybakina has fully overcome that aspect can still be open to question as this is a Wimbledon final. When on song I also feel that there is too much power and control behind the Rybakina shots to afford Jabeur any chance of slicing and dicing for profit. However trust Jabeur to capitalize to good effect if Rybakina slumps in error mode. In summary, considering that ranking points were cut out of Wimbledon and Russian and Belarusian players disqualified for no justifiable reason, I see that decision coming back to sting the organizers in the face with Rybakina skating to victory.  For a person that was born and resides in Moscow, I see her putting a fly in the ointment.  My verdict However will be Rybakina to win a set @ 4/9 Bet365. That should account for any mood swings within the match. Good luck all!!!

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25 minutes ago, Torque said:

On the one hand I agree with this rationale, but on the other I wonder if this year will buck the trend of routine wins. I say that because of the contrast in styles that will be on show, where I can imagine an ebb and flow where power and guile take turns for superiority as the match unfolds.

The great intangible of course is how each player will cope with the pressure of arguably the biggest match in tennis and I think they'll both struggle at times. My feeling is that Jabeur deserves to be the favourite, because she has more tools in her box. If her serve breaks down there are other facets of her game that can prop it up, whereas for Rybakina if she doesn't serve well it's very difficult to see her winning because her game is so dependent on it and it often sets the tone for the rest of her play.

With all of the above in mind, I'm taking a boost at 365 about Jabeur winning a long match whilst hitting at least three aces. Rybakina is the better server but Jabeur's not too shabby from the service line and should get a few aces of her own, particularly if the match goes long. I'm also taking another boost on 365 based on Jabeur winning and being able to get a few breaks of serve. As strong as Rybakina is, Jabeur is a fine returner and that's before the possibility that Rybakina doesn't serve as well as she can.

EDIT: There's a boost on Betfair that's similar to the other bets but with lower odds and so a better chance of winning. I'll have some of that as well and start crossing my fingers as all my eggs are in the Jabeur basket.

10pts Ons Jabeur breaks serve first, wins the first set and wins the match @ 2.25

10pts 3+ Aces in the Match for Ons Jabeur, Ons Jabeur will win the Match and Over 22.5 Games in the Match @ 5.50

10pts Ons Jabeur to win Set 1 6-3 or 6-4, Ons Jabeur Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve in the Match and Ons Jabeur will win the Match @ 7.50

I’m pretty baffled by these bets, for any number of reasons.....

1. I think you said your outright bets already mean you would much prefer Jabeur to win than Rybakina? I don’t see what reason there is to add to that, on what is by all accounts a very tough match to call?

2. As I mentioned previously, Women’s Wimbledon Finals don’t tend to go long. A couple of your bets are going against that trend. Not a smart move.

3. All your bets include Jabeur to win the match. I don’t see why you are so confident of that outcome. I’m surprised she’s the favourite. I’m watching the match on the BBC and they’ve had a plethora of former Grand Slam champions as pundits, all of whom seem to be leaning towards Rybakina. I haven’t had a bet myself since Medvedev lost to Nadal in Australia, but it’s taken all my willpower and more to not break that run, and have a big bet on 2-0 Rybakina today.

4. Your bets are all overly-complicated. The common thread in all of them is Jabeur to win. If that’s what you think, then just be bold and go big on that. Don’t over-complicate it and turn a good prediction into a losing bet!

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1 minute ago, GhostLetter said:

I’m pretty baffled by these bets, for any number of reasons.....

1. I think you said your outright bets already mean you would much prefer Jabeur to win than Rybakina? I don’t see what reason there is to add to that, on what is by all accounts a very tough match to call?

2. As I mentioned previously, Women’s Wimbledon Finals don’t tend to go long. A couple of your bets are going against that trend. Not a smart move.

3. All your bets include Jabeur to win the match. I don’t see why you are so confident of that outcome. I’m surprised she’s the favourite. I’m watching the match on the BBC and they’ve had a plethora of former Grand Slam champions as pundits, all of whom seem to be leaning towards Rybakina. I haven’t had a bet myself since Medvedev lost to Nadal in Australia, but it’s taken all my willpower and more to not break that run, and have a big bet on 2-0 Rybakina today.

4. Your bets are all overly-complicated. The common thread in all of them is Jabeur to win. If that’s what you think, then just be bold and go big on that. Don’t over-complicate it and turn a good prediction into a losing bet!

1. Where I see prices I like, I play as long as playing doesn't overstretch my exposure.

2. I acknowledged the trend, but that's all it is - a trend. Trends are not a guarantee something will happen.

3. If I had a pound for every time I heard a former player or pundit predict something - even en masse - and it didn't happen, I'd have a great many pounds.

4. I take your point about a straight match being a simpler bet, but I've had some success by bolting on props in the past which obviously boost the price.

5... and this obviously isn't in reply to you, but why are you so demonstrative. You could have said all of the above without being so confrontational.

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2 hours ago, Torque said:

10pts Ons Jabeur breaks serve first, wins the first set and wins the match @ 2.25

10pts 3+ Aces in the Match for Ons Jabeur, Ons Jabeur will win the Match and Over 22.5 Games in the Match @ 5.50

10pts Ons Jabeur to win Set 1 6-3 or 6-4, Ons Jabeur Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve in the Match and Ons Jabeur will win the Match @ 7.50

Was looking good after the first set, but once Rybakina cut out the errors she was a deserving winner. Jabeur will rue all the chances she missed to break and an inability to break Rybakina even once in the final two sets, despite getting into a lot of her service games, was terminal to her chances.

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

1. Where I see prices I like, I play as long as playing doesn't overstretch my exposure.

2. I acknowledged the trend, but that's all it is - a trend. Trends are not a guarantee something will happen.

3. If I had a pound for every time I heard a former player or pundit predict something - even en masse - and it didn't happen, I'd have a great many pounds.

4. I take your point about a straight match being a simpler bet, but I've had some success by bolting on props in the past which obviously boost the price.

5... and this obviously isn't in reply to you, but why are you so demonstrative. You could have said all of the above without being so confrontational.

I didn’t mean to be confrontational. I hoped that by breaking my post down into the separate points I was trying to make, that it would avoid coming across as confrontational or aggressive! I may have missed the mark with that objective though.

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This is certainly a case of semantics. The default mode of reasoning should be that trends always precede outcome or rather that trends give birth to outcome. Of course, there will always be a number of trends presumably working at one time to seemingly validate the outcome which could end up being wrong. However there is always an authentic trend or trends running that must validate the outcome. Some trends have a weekly life span, some have monthly or yearly life span and in some cases would have predated the match in question for even more than a year. This clearly supports the notion that "Outcome" is always constant since it has to conform to the trend.

Everything that happens in real time is of no consequence to the outcome which is fixed. It is the reason why my mindset unlike many in this game, is always set on finding the outcome that I already know exists out there. I employ my inner man along with a few other diagnostic tools to reach safe conclusions in most cases. Training your inner man to instinctively know can be a job of so many years of continuous learning. I have brought a whole lot of people to unlearn.....and then relearn under my stewardship opening them to a whole lot of control within their persons.

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On 6/10/2022 at 9:56 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

Andy Roddick's victory at the 2003 USO was the last time an American male won a Grand Slam. Shocking. Tennis is a sport which is growing worldwide but struggling to survive in the United States. Nobody seems capable of giving even a glimpse of the glorious past (Connors, McEnroe, Sampras, Agassi). I find it a bit humiliating for a nation like the United States, to have this long drought in men's tennis. Some say that Roger Federer undermined the fate of American tennis (Andy Roddick, James Blake) with his extraordinary dominance in the '00s. I don't know. One thing is certain, there's an absence of an American male superstar... It's time the USTA did something about this. 

Having said that, Americans are traditionally targeting Wimbledon with plenty of hope and ambition. The transition process from clay to grass doesn't bother them simply because they tend to skip the clay court season or because they're so poor on clay that they lose in the early rounds of the tournaments, hence being well rested for the grass court season which they all love. Also, Wimbledon is probably the most prestigious tournament in tennis; they can't afford to make the trip from America and show up overly weak and vulnerable. The axe from the media will fall heavily. 

I requested the following bet and my local bookmaker just issued it:

Any American player to reach SF, F or be the Winner 🏆 @25.5 

Maybe it's silly, who knows. 

 

On 6/9/2022 at 11:41 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

When was the last time a non European won a Grand Slam? (Referring to Men)

Makes me wonder, is it worth chasing it as a prospect in each slam from now on? 

Aussies - Alex de Minaur, Nick Kyrgios

Americans - Taylor Fritz, Reilly Opelka, Frances Tiafoe, Sebastian Korda

Canadians - Denis Shapovalov, FAA

 

Taylor Fritz couldn't beat Nadal... I was gonna get paid big time.

Well, at least there's a good chance for a non European to lift a Grand Slam trophy 🏆, after Juan Martin del Potro (US Open 2009). 

Vamos Nick

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Having tried three props in the Women's final without success, I'll try three more for the Men's. The basis of all three is that Djokovic will win - not exactly a revelation but there's actually plenty of support for Krygios. Personally I can't see him winning over the longer format, but I can certainly see him pushing Djokovic and that's also factored into my bets. If he's to have any chance I think he needs to start well and after Djokovic started slowly against Norrie last time out I can see him winning his first few games on serve while Djokovic starts to get a read on it. After that, I expect Djokovic to edge the first set and a tie-break looks likely.

Unlike the last round, I think Djokovic will be switched on right from the start and for two reasons. Firstly, and obviously, this is the final. Secondly, I believe he'll give Kyrgios much more respect than Norrie which makes sense as Kyrgios has beaten him more than once. With that said, I do think that Kyrgios will be able to take a set and that's not too much of a stretch of the imagination bearing in mind the amount of sets Djokovic has already dropped on the way to the final. I also think there'll be plenty of aces - Djokovic managed 13 in four sets against Norrie and if there's at least four sets in this match I think a repeat from Djokovic is possible. Kyrgios should get his fair share as well, even though Djokovic is such a good returner.

 

10pts Kyrgios to win his first four service games of the match to 15, 30 or 40 @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook

10pts Djokovic will win the Match, Djokovic to win the first set 7-5 or 7-6 and 25+ Aces in the Match @ 6.50 365

10pts Djokovic will win the Match 3-1, Over 10.5 games in the first set and 10+ Aces in the Match for Djokovic @ 13.00 365

Edited by Torque
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The worst Wimbledon ever in modern times. 

A big shit for those who decided to ban Russian athletes, a major political manoeuvre from the corrupt British government. What an athlete of any sport has anything to do with wars you idiots? 

Get Lost all of you politicians. You DESTROY everything. 

Congratulations to the God Novak Djokovic. 

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