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Wimbledon 2022


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Ok I was wrong on Tan, move along, nothing to see..

Max Cressy to beat Jack Sock (-2.5 sets) at 3.35

in parlay with..

Coco Gauff to beat (-6.5 games) Mihaela Buzarnescu at 1.89

Total odds: 6.33 with Unibet

Pretty confident on this one so high stake for me

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Tan delivered, in the end, sorry @four-leaf!

For tomorrow, I like Molcan/Fritz - Over 37.5 games at 1.95 with Pinnacle. Fritz has had two pretty weak opponents so far and Molcan certainly looks like a step up on those. The Slovak has been improving big time this season, good attitude as well, and Fritz is likely to give up in a set if he gets a break down at some point. Three tight sets can also cover this, which is a nice plus.

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18 hours ago, Torque said:

75pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.68 Betfair Exchange

10pts Kyrgios x Bautista Agut @ 1.43 365

10pts Kyrgios x Tsitsipas x Nadal @ 1.77 365

10pts Kyrgios x Bautista Agut x Fritz x Tsitsipas x Nadal x Tomljanovic x Kvitova x Badosa x Martic x Swiatek x Anisimova x Gauff x Halep x Sonego @ 6.55 365

Good day today - it's been a while. The double paid out as a single after Bautista Agut withdrew, so a very small profit but it all counts. The treble won easily enough, with Nadal having the most trouble despite being the shortest price. It's fair to say my assessment of his match was completely wrong, as Berankis matched Nadal from the baseline almost the whole way through. It does give more credence though to the idea that Nadal is going to struggle to take home the trophy - he shouldn't have been troubled by Berankis and he'll need to play significantly better if he's going to make an impact at the business end of the tournament. I also got it wrong about Kyrgios, who couldn't have won much more easily than he did, although I was right about him being motivated.

Like the double, the acca was missing Bautista Agut which was disappointing as he would likely have been an easy winner, but all the other legs won which makes up for the disappointment of yesterday's near miss. There weren't too many nervous moments either as Kyrgios, Fritz, Tsitsipas, Tomljanovic, Kvitova, Badosa, Martic, Gauff, Halep and Sonego all won in straight sets. Anisimova came from a set down to beat Davis so that was looking like it might be a loser at one point, and surprisingly the two biggest favourites in Nadal and Swiatek both dropped a set, with Swiatek in particular looking like she might be on the end of a huge shock. After all that, I'm heading back towards break-even for the tournament, with some outright bets still to run. With any luck I'll be able to nudge into profit before the tournament ends.

 

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I've added to positions on Djokovic and Swiatek in the outrights on the exchanges and as far as today goes, I'm backing a single, a treble and an acca made up of favourites that I think will win.

After Nadal put in a below par performance against Berankis and after a similar performance in the previous round, it's looking less and less likely to me that he'll win this tournament and it seems the market agrees as the price on Djokovic continues to drop. I still think he's worth backing even at a shorter price than those I've already taken, as I just don't see who beats him from the players still left in the draw.

Swiatek's price has drifted and that's no surprise after some shaky moments against Pattinama Kerkhove, but I can't ignore the fact she's now a round further along, she remains on a long winning streak and is the best player in the world by some distance. It could be that a tricky match like the one she just had on her least favourite surface helps her more than another easy win would have done, as it'll bring into sharp focus the things she needs to do better and the strategies that work - and more importantly that don't work - on grass.

The single I'm taking is Isner, who played the best match I've ever seen him play on grass against Murray. I don't think Murray played well despite what seems to be a consensus to the contrary, but even so for Isner to beat someone like him with so much experience of playing on grass doesn't bode well for Sinner's chances, particularly as he looks uncomfortable on the surface.

In case Isner doesn't win, I'm backing Sinner in a boosted treble along with Djokovic and Alcaraz. Djokovic shouldn't have many problems beating Kecmanovic and Alcaraz should get the better of Otte via his return game and if it does work out that way and Sinner also wins then I'll have covered my bet on Isner.

 

65pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.57 

55pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.86

15pts Isner to beat Sinner @ 2.50 365

10pts Sinner x Djokovic x Alcaraz @ 2.50 365

10pts Van Rijthoven x Paul x Djokovic x Ostapenko x Sakkari x Jabeur x Kerber x Alcaraz @ 6.41

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6 hours ago, Torque said:

The single I'm taking is Isner, who played the best match I've ever seen him play on grass against Murray. I don't think Murray played well despite what seems to be a consensus to the contrary, but even so for Isner to beat someone like him with so much experience of playing on grass doesn't bode well for Sinner's chances, particularly as he looks uncomfortable on the surface.

 

I agree on Isner, backed him@2.39 pinnacle

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Hello guys.

Today im taking Otte 3.50 at Unibet.

I really like Otte on grass. His flat serve and FH really suits the game. He is almost flawness at grass right now. Only losing to Berretini and Medvedev, both in tight sets which is totally acceptable. Oscar is just having amazing grass court season. Alcaraz was struggling vs another big man and big hitter, Struff. For me Otte is class above a J.L. Struff. Reffering to Torque i feel like Alcaraz will most likely have to save break points than Otte. But I may be wrong, may I a little bit overhyped about Otte but for me its 50/50 maybe even slighty favored for a German. For me the big part of this 1.30 odds for Alcarez is his name, which for me its very wrong translate it for a grass versus this class of player (right now at the moment).

Sorry for my english, im not native.

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Posted (edited)

I have an early Christmas gift for everybody

Is tomorrow 02/07/July

Tsitsipas to beat Kyrgios @ 2.14 offered by Meridianbet.

I watched carefully both of them. Tsitsipas is now different player on grass. Perhaps the contribution of the new coach in his team? Probably. He moves better, and he is hitting the ball very accurately. In addition he managed to hold his upsides and downs better than even just a couple of months ago. He stopped doing silly mistakes. He continue of course to make mistakes, but much less than before. 

Kyrgios is a fool. I wonder how he escaped with the victory over the inexperienced Briton Jubb. Actually Jubb lost it, and not the other way.

I am highly confident on this one.

10/10 for me. 

I know that some others will pick Kyrgios, because they probably didn't notice what a fool is on his head and on his game the Aussie, especially lately. Kyrgios won few weeks ago against Tsitsipas on grass, but now the circumstances are totally different.

But i like to take the risk. Besides, betting means risk. Everything has price, even the 1.01 may lose. Happened to witness this in horses final stages when the leading the race was the huge favorite from the beginning, and the last horse that stage which was pricing 1000/1 finally won the race. After the race- back in year 2011- i learned that the rider of the winner horse was a legend rider! 

I am sure that the fans of British horse races have in mind this story. I was just spending my time on betfair following the lay method. With this lay method on horse races, you may win small amounts of money but with risk to pay a lot if one of your layers finally wins the race, but to me never happened during that era because i stopped in year 2012. This is the best method of betting, providing that you have money, you have time because you have to stay in races for many hours as you understand! And is absolutely no need to know anything about horses and riders. It is pure luck, but luck rarely disappoint you. You just have to select a horse and lay. Many times i selected top favorites, and none won! Now i stopped because i don;t have time and motivation to do such a job. I have my income, i am satisfied, no need to spend 4-5 hours every day to secure 50-100 euros profit. Good luck to Tsitsipas!

Edited by delfino
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Big John folded pretty easily today. I'm not surprised. Mike Ymer did a better match than what it seems or at least better than Isner who's heydays are most likely over.

He was flattered against Murray. Don't get me wrong, he played really well but if Murray had been anywhere near his best I don't think he would have won. The biggest indictment against Murray was being broken twice - bearing in mind how limited Isner is on return that's completely unacceptable and I suspect Murray knows it as well. You look at Sinner today and he didn't face a single break point. On top of that, he was much better returning Isner's second serve than Murray was and that made a big difference.

Edited by Torque
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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Torque said:

65pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.57 

55pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.86

15pts Isner to beat Sinner @ 2.50 365

10pts Sinner x Djokovic x Alcaraz @ 2.50 365

10pts Van Rijthoven x Paul x Djokovic x Ostapenko x Sakkari x Jabeur x Kerber x Alcaraz @ 6.41

A slight loss on the day as the acca went down, whilst Sinner won which contributed to the treble coming in and cancelled out the single on Isner. Djokovic again flew through his match and that'll probably see his outright price contract still further.

Sometimes you're left scratching your head with the way results pan out sometimes. You'd have done well to find anyone who thought Mertens would beat Kerber in straight sets after the way she played in the last round where she should have lost, but that's what happened. She went from not being able to buy an easy hold against Udvardy to holding her first four serves for the loss of only three points against Kerber. When you get such a stark contrast in performances it's tempting to think why bother trying to predict what's going to happen :lol

Edited by Torque
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I expected Djokovic to shorten in the outright market but he's actually drifted slightly and that's probably been caused by Alcaraz performing impressively in beating Otte, but Djokovic is still the player to beat for me and so I'm backing him again. Swiatek has also drifted and that'll be because of Jabeur's dominant win over Parry and also possibly as support comes in for Cornet who she plays next. The expectation is that Cornet could really push Swiatek and I can't argue with that, as she's certainly better on grass than Swiatek's previous opponents. I'm sticking to my guns though that she deserves to be the favourite and so I'm backing her some more. I'm also backing three singles ahead of Saturday's play, starting with Tomljanovic to beat Krejcikova and then Martic to beat Pegula and finally Sonego to beat Nadal - although I am including Nadal in an acca as the bet on Sonego is speculative as Nadal usually finds a way to win.

As for reasons for each pick, I want to back Tomljanovic to cause a shock because of her prowess on grass and also because it's not the surface where Krejcikova feels most confident, plus the Czech has had a difficult season punctuated by injury and she had Covid not that long ago which forced her to pull out of the doubles at the French and which probably explained getting knocked out of the singles there after a woeful performance. I like Martic at the price because she leads the h2h against Pegula and even though they've not met on grass I always think that counts for something and suggests that there's something about Martic's game that gets under Pegula's skin. Lastly I'm backing Sonego and that's because Nadal hasn't played well so far this tournament from what I've seen and Sonego does quite well on grass which might surprise some who'd expect that clay was the only place he wanted to be. Berankis was able to go toe to toe with Nadal in the last round and Sonego is also capable of doing that, plus Nadal is still having to manage the problem with his foot and I'm expecting at some point for that problem to come to the surface in a match here.

 

35pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.59 Betfair Exchange

30pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 3.16 Betfair Exchange

15pts Tomljanovic to beat Krejcikova @ 2.20 365

25pts Martic to beat Pegula @ 3.40 365

5pts Sonego to beat Nadal @ 5.50 365

10pts Brooksby x Botic x De Minaur x Fritz x Nakashima x Nadal x Boulter x Halep x Swiatek @ 5.86 365

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@ Torque, Firstly I do not understand how this points system works which makes me want to ask how much a point is worth in terms of real money. I constantly see you re-backing pre-tournament favorites or strengthening your position as you would prefer to term it and wonder if you are really staking real money or just playing a private game of confidence boosting.

Secondly with due respect, I just see you to be constantly chasing on a daily basis with no solid belief behind the picks you put out. You just seem to be running a daily feel good blog within this forum where you just put out these recreational picks and then go into the ritual of providing a contigency explanation of why the picks did or did not do well. Left to me, I do not see the importance of the after-game postmortems as every game is different and should not be used to judge the next, unless of course it just aids you in the release of negative energy which consequently can have a domino effect on other readers. In fact, I think the most important requirement for successful tipping is to ensure that a person reboots their memory after viewing a previous match or previous matches to be able to achieve an unbiased analysis of the current matches in focus . When that is adhered to, you come to realise that every player performance no matter how seemingly convincing has limitations, and can only be used for the judgement of future matches to a certain extent.

Finally, I really cannot understand how you would constantly strengthen your position on two favorites that are in no way outstanding either in relation to the surface or the way this tournament has been unfolding and other hard to ignore circumstantial matters. Or is it because that is the only plausible reachable conclusion devoid of hard thinking? I am almost certain that Swiatek will not win this tournament while Djokovic while with major competition running alongside him coupled with the excess mental baggage remains very very iffy.

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So who are you backing @liquidglass? Always better to contribute something to the discussion!

Seeing Tan beating Boulter was quite a shocker, but I presume her luck will run out against Anisimova, so will be looking to get some action there, depending on the odds. Swiatek looking shaky at the moment, but her mentality will probably allow her to stabilize.

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2 hours ago, liquidglass said:

@ Torque, Firstly I do not understand how this points system works which makes me want to ask how much a point is worth in terms of real money. I constantly see you re-backing pre-tournament favorites or strengthening your position as you would prefer to term it and wonder if you are really staking real money or just playing a private game of confidence boosting.

Secondly with due respect, I just see you to be constantly chasing on a daily basis with no solid belief behind the picks you put out. You just seem to be running a daily feel good blog within this forum where you just put out these recreational picks and then go into the ritual of providing a contigency explanation of why the picks did or did not do well. Left to me, I do not see the importance of the after-game postmortems as every game is different and should not be used to judge the next, unless of course it just aids you in the release of negative energy which consequently can have a domino effect on other readers. In fact, I think the most important requirement for successful tipping is to ensure that a person reboots their memory after viewing a previous match or previous matches to be able to achieve an unbiased analysis of the current matches in focus . When that is adhered to, you come to realise that every player performance no matter how seemingly convincing has limitations, and can only be used for the judgement of future matches to a certain extent.

Finally, I really cannot understand how you would constantly strengthen your position on two favorites that are in no way outstanding either in relation to the surface or the way this tournament has been unfolding and other hard to ignore circumstantial matters. Or is it because that is the only plausible reachable conclusion devoid of hard thinking? I am almost certain that Swiatek will not win this tournament while Djokovic while with major competition running alongside him coupled with the excess mental baggage remains very very iffy.

Do you know what @liquidglass I've had enough of users like you. I do well betting on tennis and whether you believe I'm betting for real or not makes no difference to me. It took me a long time to get to a point where I knew what I was doing and a lot of that was down to using this forum and learning from other users and getting involved in the conversation around tennis matches and tournaments, and that's the reason I contribute on here the way I do - to give something back. Again, whether you believe that or not makes no difference to me. As for running a personal thread I won't even dignify that with a response and I completely disagree that a debrief after matches is unnecessary. Personally I learn a lot from doing it and it informs the bets I place in future as it should do. The idea that previous matches have nothing to do with future ones is nonsense and also if all other users thought my debriefs were pointless I wouldn't ever get likes for them, but I do. Frankly it seems the best thing for you to do is block my content and then you wont have to put up with it anymore :ok

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9 hours ago, liquidglass said:

@ Torque, Firstly I do not understand how this points system works which makes me want to ask how much a point is worth in terms of real money. I constantly see you re-backing pre-tournament favorites or strengthening your position as you would prefer to term it and wonder if you are really staking real money or just playing a private game of confidence boosting.

Secondly with due respect, I just see you to be constantly chasing on a daily basis with no solid belief behind the picks you put out. You just seem to be running a daily feel good blog within this forum where you just put out these recreational picks and then go into the ritual of providing a contigency explanation of why the picks did or did not do well. Left to me, I do not see the importance of the after-game postmortems as every game is different and should not be used to judge the next, unless of course it just aids you in the release of negative energy which consequently can have a domino effect on other readers. In fact, I think the most important requirement for successful tipping is to ensure that a person reboots their memory after viewing a previous match or previous matches to be able to achieve an unbiased analysis of the current matches in focus . When that is adhered to, you come to realise that every player performance no matter how seemingly convincing has limitations, and can only be used for the judgement of future matches to a certain extent.

Finally, I really cannot understand how you would constantly strengthen your position on two favorites that are in no way outstanding either in relation to the surface or the way this tournament has been unfolding and other hard to ignore circumstantial matters. Or is it because that is the only plausible reachable conclusion devoid of hard thinking? I am almost certain that Swiatek will not win this tournament while Djokovic while with major competition running alongside him coupled with the excess mental baggage remains very very iffy.

I can partially agree with this but I am myself backing Torques underdogs to win regularly which I find very useful like this saturday. I think there's a good reasoning behind those picks often but I can't understand why backing Swiontek to win this edition of SW19 would be a great idea when she struggled all the way to her loss against Cornet. And Nole will face Alcaraz in the quarter and Carlitos are playing something of a game close to Djokers or maybe even better. I think this tournaments current edition will be won by either Djokovic or Carlitos. Carlitos is at his best this time on a surface that suits his game.

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23 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I can partially agree with this but I am myself backing Torques underdogs to win regularly which I find very useful like this saturday. I think there's a good reasoning behind those picks often but I can't understand why backing Swiontek to win this edition of SW19 would be a great idea when she struggled all the way to her loss against Cornet. And Nole will face Alcaraz in the quarter and Carlitos are playing something of a game close to Djokers or maybe even better. I think this tournaments current edition will be won by either Djokovic or Carlitos. Carlitos is at his best this time on a surface that suits his game.

Which bit do you agree with @four-leafI'm intrigued.

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26 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I can partially agree with this but I am myself backing Torques underdogs to win regularly which I find very useful like this saturday. I think there's a good reasoning behind those picks often but I can't understand why backing Swiontek to win this edition of SW19 would be a great idea when she struggled all the way to her loss against Cornet. And Nole will face Alcaraz in the quarter and Carlitos are playing something of a game close to Djokers or maybe even better. I think this tournaments current edition will be won by either Djokovic or Carlitos. Carlitos is at his best this time on a surface that suits his game.

While we're about it let's clear a few other things up. I don't post what I'm betting on with a view to anyone else following. I post it simply so that others can see my thought process and then make up their own mind. I've no doubt that lots of times other users will disagree with what I've posted and decide to go the other way or pass on what I've picked and that's absolutely fine - that's the point of this forum. As to the earlier suggestion that I chase, I absolutely do not do that and absolutely do not recommend that anyone else adopts that approach as it never works. I have a bank, I stake relative to that bank and I never deviate from that. Sometimes I win and sometimes I lose and that's betting folks.

You referenced backing Swiatek @four-leafand I'm still more than happy I backed her despite her loss today and for the avoidance of doubt I'm not surprised she didn't win the tournament. She wasn't necessarily supposed to win and that's why she was odds against. In my opinion though, the price on her was generous and that's why I backed her. It's easy to say after a loss how bad a pick was, but I'm not interested in the optics of individual bets. I'm interested in long-term results and mine speak for themselves. They are listed and updated in my signature and have been since the start of last season. I make no claims of being some kind of tennis soothsayer, and in fact if you check you'll see I've made numerous references in the past to how my current return on investment isn't sustainable and that in effect, my results since last year have been the beneficiary of a degree of luck.

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8 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I do agree about Swiontek and Djokovic being iffy as it remains to be seen if he gets past Alcaraz

Of course it remains to be seen, but if it's a choice between multiple Wimbledon winner Djokovic and wet behind the ears on grass Alcaraz, I know who I'm going for every time. You seem to be suggesting Alcaraz has a good chance and good luck to you if you've bet on him, but right now I'm very happy to be on Djokovic and I'll still feel that way even if Alcaraz does win the tournament. This is the thing I don't understand about certain users of this forum - different opinions are OK. It's not about trying to get everyone to agree with you.

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On 7/2/2022 at 12:53 AM, Torque said:

35pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.59 Betfair Exchange

30pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 3.16 Betfair Exchange

15pts Tomljanovic to beat Krejcikova @ 2.20 365

25pts Martic to beat Pegula @ 3.40 365

5pts Sonego to beat Nadal @ 5.50 365

10pts Brooksby x Botic x De Minaur x Fritz x Nakashima x Nadal x Boulter x Halep x Swiatek @ 5.86 365

Unperturbed by yet another bout of trolling on this part of the forum, I'll soldier on. Yesterday was disappointing in terms of Swiatek being knocked out after what can only be described as a dreadful performance studded with an inordinate amount of unforced errors, but that disappointment was tempered by two nice match wins in the form of Tomljanovic and Martic. Sonego was a disappointment as he was swatted aside by Nadal when really he should have presented a decent challenge, and the acca was a goner early on after both Brooksby and Boulter were unexpectedly beaten. The way Brooksby lost really surprised me, but it's probably less surprising that Boulter lost and definitely time to start taking Tan more seriously after another strong performance that showcased her ability to switch up the play with spins and slices. I'll have a look at what's to come tomorrow and post up anything that I'm taking - @liquidglass you'll obviously want to look elsewhere if you've not taken up my suggestion to block me.

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2 hours ago, Torque said:

Of course it remains to be seen, but if it's a choice between multiple Wimbledon winner Djokovic and wet behind the ears on grass Alcaraz, I know who I'm going for every time. You seem to be suggesting Alcaraz has a good chance and good luck to you if you've bet on him, but right now I'm very happy to be on Djokovic and I'll still feel that way even if Alcaraz does win the tournament. This is the thing I don't understand about certain users of this forum - different opinions are OK. It's not about trying to get everyone to agree with you.

I would say Alcaraz has a better chance to win Aussie open next year

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Posted (edited)

The reason for Iga's poor performance was the lack of technique / skills in playing without topspin on the grass; this should be trained and assimilated, among others, in pre-Wimbledon tournaments. 
She had neither the time nor the energie for this after such an excellent but exhausting season. So the question is: why did she go to this tournament? 
Iga's power is based on fast-played, incredibly intense topspin, so all opponents often have big problems with positioning for the optimal pickup of the ball. Her second serve without topspin is unfortunately, useless.

Edited by lelit
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5 hours ago, Torque said:

 Yesterday was disappointing in terms of Swiatek being knocked out after what can only be described as a dreadful performance studded with an inordinate amount of unforced errors

It was beyond dreadful. She clearly tanked to last 2 or 3 games. She has no heart/guts/fightback. You wouldn't see that from Jabeur, Ostapenko, Halep.

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I'm just going to back a boosted treble today and also try a quarters acca. Usual rationale - all are short and I think all will win.

 

10pts Ostapenko x Alcaraz x Djokovic @ 1.91 365

10pts Alcaraz x Djokovic x Nadal x Kyrgios x De Minaur x Fritz x Ostapenko x Jabeur x Anisimova @ 5.52 365

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