Wimbledon 2022

[CzechPunter]

[Foo_Fighter]

When was the last time a non European won a Grand Slam? (Referring to Men)

Makes me wonder, is it worth chasing it as a prospect in each slam from now on? 

Aussies - Alex de Minaur, Nick Kyrgios

Americans - Taylor Fritz, Reilly Opelka, Frances Tiafoe, Sebastian Korda

Canadians - Denis Shapovalov, FAA

 

 

[Torque]

16 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

When was the last time a non European won a Grand Slam? (Referring to Men)

Makes me wonder, is it worth chasing it as a prospect in each slam from now on? 

Aussies - Alex de Minaur, Nick Kyrgios

Americans - Taylor Fritz, Reilly Opelka, Frances Tiafoe, Sebastian Korda

Canadians - Denis Shapovalov, FAA

 

 

I don't think so but all the luck if you decide to try it.

[Foo_Fighter]

20 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

When was the last time a non European won a Grand Slam? (Referring to Men)

Andy Roddick's victory at the 2003 USO was the last time an American male won a Grand Slam. Shocking. Tennis is a sport which is growing worldwide but struggling to survive in the United States. Nobody seems capable of giving even a glimpse of the glorious past (Connors, McEnroe, Sampras, Agassi). I find it a bit humiliating for a nation like the United States, to have this long drought in men's tennis. Some say that Roger Federer undermined the fate of American tennis (Andy Roddick, James Blake) with his extraordinary dominance in the '00s. I don't know. One thing is certain, there's an absence of an American male superstar... It's time the USTA did something about this. 

Having said that, Americans are traditionally targeting Wimbledon with plenty of hope and ambition. The transition process from clay to grass doesn't bother them simply because they tend to skip the clay court season or because they're so poor on clay that they lose in the early rounds of the tournaments, hence being well rested for the grass court season which they all love. Also, Wimbledon is probably the most prestigious tournament in tennis; they can't afford to make the trip from America and show up overly weak and vulnerable. The axe from the media will fall heavily. 

I requested the following bet and my local bookmaker just issued it:

Any American player to reach SF, F or be the Winner ? @25.5 

Maybe it's silly, who knows. 

[Foo_Fighter]

On 6/9/2022 at 11:41 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

When was the last time a non European won a Grand Slam? (Referring to Men)

Was it Juan Martin del Potro at Flushing Meadows in 2009? Wow. ????

[CzechPunter]

The draws are out!

Men's https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/2022_MS_draw.pdf

Women's https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/scores/draws/2022_LS_draw.pdf

[delfino]

I like Berettini and Kvitova. I haven't check the draw, but for WTA is no need really. 

Kvitova to reach QF looks decent. She is at top form.

Berettini improved his return game, and looks top strong to go deep in the tournament.

Of course i can't pick him as winner because Djokovic and Nadal are there. Especially for Nadal i must remind that he has solid chances to go for all major in the season 2022, which is something incredibly difficult, and i can't remember who achieved that. If i go to google to search, i guess that this is going back decades. 

I expect many many upsets in all rounds. A lot of super talented young players are now active. 

I have small doubts about Alcaraz. He must prove who is. Don't tell me mad if i said that he is already heavily overtraining at the age of 19. But i am not sure. There are no guarantees in this life, no certainties neither, so lets see what Alcaraz will show to us

xxxxxxx

 

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, delfino said:

I like Berettini and Kvitova. I haven't check the draw, but for WTA is no need really. 

Kvitova to reach QF looks decent. She is at top form.

Berettini improved his return game, and looks top strong to go deep in the tournament.

Of course i can't pick him as winner because Djokovic and Nadal are there. Especially for Nadal i must remind that he has solid chances to go for all major in the season 2022, which is something incredibly difficult, and i can't remember who achieved that. If i go to google to search, i guess that this is going back decades. 

I expect many many upsets in all rounds. A lot of super talented young players are now active. 

I have small doubts about Alcaraz. He must prove who is. Don't tell me mad if i said that he is already heavily overtraining at the age of 19. But i am not sure. There are no guarantees in this life, no certainties neither, so lets see what Alcaraz will show to us

xxxxxxx

 

It was the aussie Rod Laver who were the last and only one on the mens side who achieved the feat of winning all 4 grand slams in a season way back and he did it twice.

[Foo_Fighter]

45 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

It was the aussie Rod Laver who were the last and only one on the mens side who achieved the feat of winning all 4 grand slams in a season way back and he did it twice.

It's a shame Roger didn't achieve that in the years of his absolute dominance (2004-2007)

[Torque]

18 minutes ago, money44 said:

Anybody here have opinions on the Borna Coric vs Diego Schwartzman match? I don't trust Diego to win this, and would never even consider backing him here. thoughts?

If you saw some of Coric match in Parma.. He seems to be in great form, and is serving the ball huge. He didn't have much trouble transitioning to grass when he won the title in Halle several years ago.. I imagine it's going to be more of the same.. He plays basically the same style with whatever surface you put him on.. just a grinder, and when in form with a massive serve. 

Coric has withdrawn as I understand it @money44

[Grass Cash]

ahh okay, thanks for letting me know.. makes my decisions easier.

[Grass Cash]

I am considering a Huesler/Pedro Martinez Portero parlay @Torque I know it's fairly unconventional pick, and you may not agree with some of it. what do you think?

[Torque]

58 minutes ago, money44 said:

I am considering a Huesler/Pedro Martinez Portero parlay @Torque I know it's fairly unconventional pick, and you may not agree with some of it. what do you think?

Huesler seems OK, but I'd have serious reservations about Portero. I've not checked yet, but there must be better plus money options than him.

[Grass Cash]

There is better plus many options but I feel good about him.. he has reached the third round here, and I think he has a versatile game for the surface.. I assumed you wouldn't have a problem with Huesler.. but I think Martinez game is more suited to grass.. but like you said there is definitely better options.. However,  I am trying to work miracles, and I can't choose the obvious ones in my mind, because they always end up losing for me.. So, I'm trying for the random things.  And yes, I understand that Pedro is a clay court player, but there is no doubt in my mind that Molcan also is a clay court player, and good on hard as well.. I think that levels the playing ground of these odds enough to consider Martinez... I'm really high on him @TorqueProbably another bad pick from me, but I imagine this comes in, and I would warn anyone who reads this about betting on Molcan. 

[Torque]

6 minutes ago, money44 said:

There is better plus many options but I feel good about him.. he has reached the third round here, and I think he has a versatile game for the surface.. I assumed you wouldn't have a problem with Huesler.. but I think Martinez game is more suited to grass.. but like you said there is definitely better options.. However,  I am trying to work miracles, and I can't choose the obvious ones in my mind, because they always end up losing for me.. So, I'm trying for the random things.  And yes, I understand that Pedro is a clay court player, but there is no doubt in my mind that Molcan also is a clay court player, and good on hard as well.. I think that levels the playing ground of these odds enough to consider Martinez... I'm really high on him @TorqueProbably another bad pick from me, but I imagine this comes in, and I would warn anyone who reads this about betting on Molcan. 

From a price perspective I see what you mean. He probably is worth backing at the odds it's just for me I can't see him winning and so I'd rather back a player at plus money that I can see winning. It looks like you think he can definitely win so I wouldn't want to put you off. Go for it 

[Torque]

My main problem with Portero is that lately he hasn't been able to get it done on his favoured clay, so I'm struggling to see how he gets wins on grass if he can't even win on his favoured surface.

[Grass Cash]

The way I'm seeing it .. is that's a good thing because he's going to give everything on the grass courts since he performed badly @Roland Garros

[Grass Cash]

Monteiro-154 Draper-333 Krajinovic-278 Evans-435
Querrey -455 Sock-250 Mertens-500 Wickmayer-149
Serena Williams-357 Stephens-130 Halep-345 Rybakina-370
Pacquet-130 Huesler-179 Sonego-200

I listed some chalk that I would consider throwing into parlays to open the first round.. I was surprised there wasn't that much that I found.. so I'd imagine there will be a number of plus money odds scoring. (maxium -500 odds restriction for these) 

Maybe we could narrow some of these down to solid plays and throw some puzzle pieces together for a decent parlay. Please list any of the players that you agree are going to win, and if we get enough people on board with this segment.. It could essentially be free cash for everyone in the long term. Good luck guys, and hope that we have some nice cooperation here!
 

Edited June 26, 2022 by money44
grammar

[CzechPunter]

Thanks for the input! Moved to the Wimbledon topic ?

[CzechPunter]

As always, good luck to everyone getting involved!

Mai Hontama to beat Clara Tauson at 2.60 with Unibet

Tauson didn't play any preparatory tournaments on grass, while Hontama had a good run in the qualifiers and is generally a tricky player to play against. A good friend of mine from the Czech Republic also saw her play in the qualifiers and said she was moving really well etc., so I suppose she's worth a shot at odds against. On ranking alone, Tauson would be an even bigger fav, so chances are that the bookies are sensing an upset here as well.

Jan-Lennard Struff (+2.5 sets) to beat Carlos Alcaraz at 1.64 with Unibet

Alcaraz is a big unknown on grass, and his performances in the exhibition events suggest that he might not even be fully fit. Struff has been pretty poor lately, too, but he tends to be decent against big names and his serve can do the job here on its own, too. I think he'll raise his game for the occasion, and I think that he'll be able to steal a set off Alcaraza way more often than not.

Martina Trevisan to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.62 with Unibet

Both players feel much better on clay, of course, but Trevisan had a great run in the French Open and she also actually played on grass, unlike Cocciaretto. Considering that I also rate her as the better player of the two overall, it all combines for a bet for me here.

Yanina Wickmayer to beat Lin Zhu 1.67 with Unibet

Zhu has been absolutely tragic recently, while Wickmayer seems energized after her comeback.

Dominik Koepfer to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.68 with Pinnacle

Not confident at all about Galan's chances of grass, he didn't bother to prepare much by the looks of things. Koepfer isn't too impressive, either, but at least he's more proficient on hard courts etc.

Lorenzo Sonego to beat Denis Kudla at 1.86 with Pinnacle

Over the longer format, I much prefer Sonego's composure, even despite his recent loss against Kudla.

[Grass Cash]

very strong post @CzechPunterI meant to include Sonego in my list, and I will not be surprised if you win every single one of those bets, and I might do a parlay with all of them, and take struff on a flyer to win since I don't have the set handicap option. 

For some reason my book is not offering lines yet for the first round.. Slow Pokes!

Edited June 26, 2022 by money44

[Grass Cash]

Anybody else giving a Kuhn a chance vs Nakashima in here? I'm due to hit a big one, and the only thing stopping me is mindless superstition reasons. 

[Torque]

So here we are again. It's summer and that means the return of the pristine green lawns of SW19. For the first day, I've got an outright, a load of singles, a double, a boosted double and a multiple comprised of lots of short prices. 

Starting off with the outright, I can't see any reason not to back Djokovic. The only other players in single figures in the betting are Berrettini and Nadal and I don't see either of them taking the title. Berrettini has the best shot as he has all the tools to succeed on grass, but he was dismantled pretty easily by Djokovic in the final last year despite winning the first set and I don't think much has changed since then. I also think it's easy to draw a line through Nadal - it took injections for him to win the French and without them and despite treatment to alleviate his foot problem I don't think his body will be able to cope with the rigours of another Slam so soon.

I'm backing a lot of singles and most of them are underdogs, which means it's likely there will be a lot of losers. Obviously I believe that there will be enough winners for a profit to be made, but this is always a risky strategy with lots of ups and downs and so if anyone is following please bet accordingly. Having said that, I am backing one player at short odds and that's Haddad Maia. It's impossible to ignore the form that she's in and whilst I don't think she'll win the title, she should make the second week at least with the way that she's playing. Her opponent Juvan is a good young prospect and she got a good result here last year when she beat Bencic, but I think she'll struggle to deal with Haddad Maia's lefty game which can force players way off the court and which creates different angles to most other players.

There are two players that are around even money that I like and that's Baez and Bouzkova. Baez plays Daniel and neither player would classify grass as their favourite surface, but what swings me towards Baez is that he's the more talented player and he appears to have made strides on the green stuff with a win over Thompson in Mallorca last week. Bouzkova takes on Collins and in normal circumstances I'd have this down as a routine win for Collins, but as she's not played since the French Open and bearing in mind the physical issues she's been experiencing this year it's possible she isn't fully fit. If that's the case then Bouzkova has a good chance of getting the win.

Next up is a cluster of players around the 2 to 1 mark - Burrage, Inglis, Bronzetti and Tomova. Burrage takes on Tsurenko and after a good showing in Eastbourne last week she should be feeling good about her chances, particularly as Tsurenko withdrew from the same tournament due to injury. Inglis is up against Galfi and from a form perspective I can see why Galfi is the favourite, but she shouldn't be such a big favourite in my eyes. Inglis has come through qualifying and whilst it's fair to say she laboured somewhat, three wins in a row is always good for confidence. She showed earlier in the year that she's not afraid of the big stage with a good run at home at the AO and I think she can compete here. Bronzetti should have a good chance of an upset win against Li, as her opponent has been on the end of a couple of heavy defeats on grass in recent weeks and she's had injury problems in recent months. Tomova could also cause an upset against Saville, after finding some form on grass last week in Eastbourne. Wins over Rogers and Flipkens, combined with a disappointing loss for Saville against Miyazaki at the same tournament might mean this match is closer than expected.

The last two singles are firmly in the realm of speculative, as I'm backing both Dodin and Coria. Dodin plays against Ostapenko and that's a thankless task on the face of it with Ostapenko coming off a final appearance in Eastbourne and playing well. However, Ostapenko has been wildly inconsistent for years now and whilst her big-hitting game was working last week as she painted line after line and kept unforced errors low, a repeat at this tournament is by no means guaranteed. With Ostapenko it's boom or bust and if she plays like she did last week then Dodin stands little chance, but if she busts and starts missing her shots then Dodin might only need to keep the ball in the court to win. Coria is a massive underdog against Vesely and whilst I don't dispute that Vesely should win and most likely easily, the fact is he's done next to nothing on tour since his surprise run to the final in Dubai at the start of the year. He doesn't have the best injury record either and I'd certainly be nervous if I was backing him at such a short price.

That's the singles taken care of so time to move on to the doubles and the multiple. The first double is Haddad Maia paired with Opelka. I've written about Haddad Maia already and I'm putting Opelka with her because even though his price is short, I think it should be shorter. Taberner isn't suited to grass at all and although Opelka lost the two matches he played on grass ahead of this tournament, he was beaten by Cressy and De Minaur who are both good players on the surface. Opelka should be able to account for Taberner easily enough.

The second double is boosted and it's Raducanu and Murray. Raducanu is underdog against Van Uytvanck and that's understandable given her injury problems and difficult season so far, however she'll have the support of the crowd and the adrenaline rush that provides, plus a desire I'm sure to make up for last year. Van Uytvanck is a tough player to face on grass, but she's not a world-beater and Raducanu was beating players of her ilk here last year. If she can find a way to manage her physical issues I think she'll make the next round. Murray has also been struggling with injury ahead of his match against Duckworth, but like Raducanu I expect his surroundings to inspire him. Duckworth actually has a decent record on grass and so might not be a pushover despite what the odds say, but I can't see him winning this even with that and Murray's injury problems in mind. Finally there's the multiple which is made up of short odds, with the largest being Haddad Maia's. There's not much to say about each pick except they are all players that play well on grass, or are in form, or are priced a little higher than I think they should be.

25pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.90 Betfair Exchange

90pts Haddad Maia to beat Juvan @ 1.30 365

30pts Baez to beat Daniel @ 1.91 Boyles

20pts Bouzkova to beat Collins @ 2.20 365

20pts Burrage to beat Tsurenko @ 3.00 365

25pts Inglis to beat Galfi @ 3.20 Boyles

15pts Bronzetti to beat Li @ 3.00 365

50pts Tomova to beat Saville @ 3.00 Boyles

5pts Dodin to beat Ostapenko @ 7.00 Boyles

15pts Coria to beat Vesely @ 13.00 365

10pts Haddad Maia x Opelka @ 1.51 365

10pts Raducanu x Murray @ 3.12 365

10pts Kalinina x Mannarino x Haddad Maia x Hurkacz x Ruud x Tiafoe x Otte x Van Rijthoven x Opelka x Kanepi x Mertens x Linette x Kerber x Riske @ 9.27 365

[Stanimal]

1 hour ago, Torque said:

So here we are again. It's summer and that means the return of the pristine green lawns of SW19. For the first day, I've got an outright, a load of singles, a double, a boosted double and a multiple comprised of lots of short prices. 

Starting off with the outright, I can't see any reason not to back Djokovic. The only other players in single figures in the betting are Berrettini and Nadal and I don't see either of them taking the title. Berrettini has the best shot as he has all the tools to succeed on grass, but he was dismantled pretty easily by Djokovic in the final last year despite winning the first set and I don't think much has changed since then. I also think it's easy to draw a line through Nadal - it took injections for him to win the French and without them and despite treatment to alleviate his foot problem I don't think his body will be able to cope with the rigours of another Slam so soon.

I'm backing a lot of singles and most of them are underdogs, which means it's likely there will be a lot of losers. Obviously I believe that there will be enough winners for a profit to be made, but this is always a risky strategy with lots of ups and downs and so if anyone is following please bet accordingly. Having said that, I am backing one player at short odds and that's Haddad Maia. It's impossible to ignore the form that she's in and whilst I don't think she'll win the title, she should make the second week at least with the way that she's playing. Her opponent Juvan is a good young prospect and she got a good result here last year when she beat Bencic, but I think she'll struggle to deal with Haddad Maia's lefty game which can force players way off the court and which creates different angles to most other players.

There are two players that are around even money that I like and that's Baez and Bouzkova. Baez plays Daniel and neither player would classify grass as their favourite surface, but what swings me towards Baez is that he's the more talented player and he appears to have made strides on the green stuff with a win over Thompson in Mallorca last week. Bouzkova takes on Collins and in normal circumstances I'd have this down as a routine win for Collins, but as she's not played since the French Open and bearing in mind the physical issues she's been experiencing this year it's possible she isn't fully fit. If that's the case then Bouzkova has a good chance of getting the win.

Next up is a cluster of players around the 2 to 1 mark - Burrage, Inglis, Bronzetti and Tomova. Burrage takes on Tsurenko and after a good showing in Eastbourne last week she should be feeling good about her chances, particularly as Tsurenko withdrew from the same tournament due to injury. Inglis is up against Galfi and from a form perspective I can see why Galfi is the favourite, but she shouldn't be such a big favourite in my eyes. Inglis has come through qualifying and whilst it's fair to say she laboured somewhat, three wins in a row is always good for confidence. She showed earlier in the year that she's not afraid of the big stage with a good run at home at the AO and I think she can compete here. Bronzetti should have a good chance of an upset win against Li, as her opponent has been on the end of a couple of heavy defeats on grass in recent weeks and she's had injury problems in recent months. Tomova could also cause an upset against Saville, after finding some form on grass last week in Eastbourne. Wins over Rogers and Flipkens, combined with a disappointing loss for Saville against Miyazaki at the same tournament might mean this match is closer than expected.

The last two singles are firmly in the realm of speculative, as I'm backing both Dodin and Coria. Dodin plays against Ostapenko and that's a thankless task on the face of it with Ostapenko coming off a final appearance in Eastbourne and playing well. However, Ostapenko has been wildly inconsistent for years now and whilst her big-hitting game was working last week as she painted line after line and kept unforced errors low, a repeat at this tournament is by no means guaranteed. With Ostapenko it's boom or bust and if she plays like she did last week then Dodin stands little chance, but if she busts and starts missing her shots then Dodin might only need to keep the ball in the court to win. Coria is a massive underdog against Vesely and whilst I don't dispute that Vesely should win and most likely easily, the fact is he's done next to nothing on tour since his surprise run to the final in Dubai at the start of the year. He doesn't have the best injury record either and I'd certainly be nervous if I was backing him at such a short price.

That's the singles taken care of so time to move on to the doubles and the multiple. The first double is Haddad Maia paired with Opelka. I've written about Haddad Maia already and I'm putting Opelka with her because even though his price is short, I think it should be shorter. Taberner isn't suited to grass at all and although Opelka lost the two matches he played on grass ahead of this tournament, he was beaten by Cressy and De Minaur who are both good players on the surface. Opelka should be able to account for Taberner easily enough.

The second double is boosted and it's Raducanu and Murray. Raducanu is underdog against Van Uytvanck and that's understandable given her injury problems and difficult season so far, however she'll have the support of the crowd and the adrenaline rush that provides, plus a desire I'm sure to make up for last year. Van Uytvanck is a tough player to face on grass, but she's not a world-beater and Raducanu was beating players of her ilk here last year. If she can find a way to manage her physical issues I think she'll make the next round. Murray has also been struggling with injury ahead of his match against Duckworth, but like Raducanu I expect his surroundings to inspire him. Duckworth actually has a decent record on grass and so might not be a pushover despite what the odds say, but I can't see him winning this even with that and Murray's injury problems in mind. Finally there's the multiple which is made up of short odds, with the largest being Haddad Maia's. There's not much to say about each pick except they are all players that play well on grass, or are in form, or are priced a little higher than I think they should be.

25pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.90 Betfair Exchange

90pts Haddad Maia to beat Juvan @ 1.30 365

30pts Baez to beat Daniel @ 1.91 Boyles

20pts Bouzkova to beat Collins @ 2.20 365

20pts Burrage to beat Tsurenko @ 3.00 365

25pts Inglis to beat Galfi @ 3.20 Boyles

15pts Bronzetti to beat Li @ 3.00 365

50pts Tomova to beat Saville @ 3.00 Boyles

5pts Dodin to beat Ostapenko @ 7.00 Boyles

15pts Coria to beat Vesely @ 13.00 365

10pts Haddad Maia x Opelka @ 1.51 365

10pts Raducanu x Murray @ 3.12 365

10pts Kalinina x Mannarino x Haddad Maia x Hurkacz x Ruud x Tiafoe x Otte x Van Rijthoven x Opelka x Kanepi x Mertens x Linette x Kerber x Riske @ 9.27 365

Coria played yesterday on clay + he is very bad on grass.

Cant see him taking at least 1 set..

[Grass Cash]

Can you write some of your Wimbledon picks @Stanimal. Or others that are not too bashful to put their opinions publicly. Thanks!

[Torque]

4 hours ago, Stanimal said:

Coria played yesterday on clay + he is very bad on grass.

Cant see him taking at least 1 set..

I can't argue with that assessment @Stanimal and I'm expecting a win in straight sets for Vesely also - but you never know. Shocks happen and this is as much about going against Vesely as it is backing Coria.

[Torque]

365 have put up some more boosts and there's one I like the look of which is Djokovic to win in straights sets without any tie-breaks and serve 10+ aces. That seems achievable to me as I don't think he'll be mucking around against Kwon.

10pts Djokovic to win the Match 3-0, Under 0.5 Tie Breaks in the Match and 10+ Aces in the Match for Djokovic @ 2.25 365

[888888]

Slightly dumb question, since it rained and it's so humid, could the grass be slightly damp therefore the ball slower when bouncing off the ground resulting in less aces? 

Thanks

[four-leaf]

I don't understand the mystery of Benoit Paire. Now I've done the mistake of taken him to win again and he's fooling me again.

[CzechPunter]

@888888It might, but the bounce can also be slightly more tricky depending on how good the grass is. Wouldn't read into that too much, it wasn't a massive amount of rain.