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Wimbledon 2022


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35 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@888888It might, but the bounce can also be slightly more tricky depending on how good the grass is. Wouldn't read into that too much, it wasn't a massive amount of rain.

appreciate it, thanks

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Kukushkin - Brooksby 1 @3.10 with Wwin

Brooksby showed very bad games in last months, also on grass what is strange if you look at his good run in Newport last summer. Kukushkin's best years are over, but he still can show good tennis on fast courts and win at some very high odds. I think he is worth a shot here, he successfully made it through qualies and is ready to take advantage of Brooksby's bad recent form.

Goffin - Albot over 37.5 games @1.77 with Wwin

Albot made nice run on grass this year, while Goffin played only 1 match on grass. H2H is 4:0, but 3/4 ended with Albot taking a set with nice number of TB. I expect something like that also tomorrow, line is set pretty low. Goffin is not in form like he wanted before Wimbledon. 3:1 or 3:2 for Goffin.

 

Sock - Zapata Miralles over 38.5 games @1.75 with Wwin

Another underdog who caught my eye is Zapata Miralles, who gave a nice fight here in Wimbledon last year against Garin. Good all round player, who knows to play on all surfaces. Now he's through qualies again, ready to face Sock. He took smo nice wins at start of the grass season and deserves to be favourite. He also had to made it through qualies, but to be honest both players had very average opponents here. Sock is making a return to ATP top 100, but he has weak points and is not a player he was few years ago. I expect close sets and Spaniard takes at least one.

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18 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm backing a lot of singles and most of them are underdogs, which means it's likely there will be a lot of losers.

This turned out to be quite prophetic. 10 of the 14 bets I've placed so far settled today and 8 of them were losers, including Haddad Maia who was the shortest price. She played very poorly against Juvan and made lots of mistakes and perhaps reverted to her normal level after a stellar few weeks. Burrage was also disappointing and wasn't able to challenge Tsurenko at all and the same went for Bronzetti against Li. Inglis lost from a set up against Galfi and it was obvious from early on that Coria only turned up to play Vesely for the cheque.

Haddad Maia losing torpedoed the double and there ended up being a few losers in the acca, with Hurkacz being the most 'impressive' in managing to lose to Davidovich Fokina as a big favourite despite being a break ahead twice in the final set and also well clear in the champions breaker - although he was lucky to even get that far and should have lost in straight sets in what was a thoroughly underwhelming performance from a player fancied by many to get to the the latter stages here.

I also struck out with the Djokovic bet, as although he hit the aces line and there were no tie-breaks he did lose a set behind some passive play and subdued and withdrawn body language that is becoming something of a feature of his early matches at Slams. At least he got through which is good for my outright on him, although the nature of his performance against Kwon probably means his outright price will drift.

Some small comfort came in the form of Bouzkova fighting really hard to beat Collins in three sets and also Raducanu and Murray winning to bring in the 'Brit' double at a nice price, but overall it was a chastening day that leaves me firmly behind the eight ball in terms of trying to make a profit by the end of the tournament. I'll be back later with what I'm taking tomorrow.

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After yesterday's punishment let's see if today is any better. I've still got Baez, Dodin and Tomova to run and I'm going to add a favourite and a couple of dogs to that, plus adding to my position on Djokovic in the outright market as his price is still similar to before the first round - I was hoping he'd drift but I guess the market is used to his flat performances in the early rounds of Slams by now and how they have little effect on his progress. I'll also back another 'Brit' double at a boosted price and I've got another couple of multiples as well.

The favourite I want to back is Auger-Aliassime against Cressy. Whilst I think Cressy is well suited to grass and his results back that up, Felix is at a higher level right now and should really have designs on a deep run here. He's on record as saying he loves the grass and whilst I'll be surprised if he manages to win in straight sets, I do think he wins this and most probably in four sets. Tie-breaks are likely to come into play in this one and that's why I think Cressy can take a set, but in the end it should be Auger-Aliassime that advances to the next round due to his extra quality.

The two dogs I'm looking at are Lopez and Kozlov. I'm hoping for one last hurrah with Lopez as there's nothing in his form to suggest he can beat Botic, but at the same time Botic hasn't shown any consistency on grass these last few weeks whereas Lopez is much more stable on the surface as he's had plenty of success on it over the years. He'll probably need tie-breaks to pull this off, but as they can be a bit of lottery I'm happy to take a chance on him to turn back the clock and get a big win. With Kozlov I'm mainly wanting to go against Schwartzman, who's shown very little aptitude for grass in his career. Kozlov is no great shakes right now but he did win the juniors here years ago and that's no bad thing. If he plays well and if Schwartzman continues with what's been a very mediocre season so far then this match could see an upset.

The boosted double features Broady and Evans and I think it's got a decent chance of landing. Broady is the one most likely to let the double down, but he gave Cilic a scare at Queen's and a repeat of that level should see him beating Klein. Evans takes on Kubler and that could be a tricky assignment and it's a match where I don't see him winning in straight sets as he sometimes makes things difficult for himself, but like Broady I do think he'll get over the line in the end.

The first multiple I've taken comes in at even money and consists of Sock, Nakashima, Thompson and Novak. They're all playing players who prefer clay and that should be enough to see them all winning. The second multiple has the first multiple as its foundation, and then like yesterday it's all players at short prices who should win. After yesterday my hopes aren't high, but I'll stick with the idea of getting good odds by rolling up short prices and see if I can hit one eventually.

 

25pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.86 Betfair Exchange

75pts Auger-Aliassime to beat Cressy @ 1.36 Boyles

5pts Lopez to beat Van De Zandschulp @ 5.50 Boyles

10pts Kozlov to beat Schwartzman @ 5.50 Boyles

10pts Broady x Evans @ 2.26 365

10pts Sock x Nakashima x Thompson x Novak @ 2.00 365

10pts Sock x Nakashima x Thompson x Novak x Querrey x Auger-Aliassime x Evans x Fritz x Zhang x Anisimova x Boulter x Dart x Peniston x Bonzi @ 10.62 365

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3 picks for Wimbledon matches today:

DART-MASAROVA 2:0 sets @ 1.56 pinnacle
GAUFF-RUSE 2:0 sets @ 1.35 pinnacle
Both favorites in a good recent form on grass reaching semifinals last week. Gauff is probably a dark horse for this tournament, could reach the SF/QF stage.

DE MINAUR-DELLIEN 3:0 sets @ 1.4 unibet
Dellien is a typical clay court specialist that can make things difficult for De Minuar on clay. On faster surfaces, especially on grass, it should be an easy win for De Minaur.

 

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16 hours ago, Torque said:

 

25pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.86 Betfair Exchange

75pts Auger-Aliassime to beat Cressy @ 1.36 Boyles

5pts Lopez to beat Van De Zandschulp @ 5.50 Boyles

10pts Kozlov to beat Schwartzman @ 5.50 Boyles

10pts Broady x Evans @ 2.26 365

10pts Sock x Nakashima x Thompson x Novak @ 2.00 365

10pts Sock x Nakashima x Thompson x Novak x Querrey x Auger-Aliassime x Evans x Fritz x Zhang x Anisimova x Boulter x Dart x Peniston x Bonzi @ 10.62 365

It was looking like the recovery from yesterday's losses was on when Baez and Tomova won at the start of the day, but it was all downhill from there - with the exception of the four-fold which came in without too much drama. Auger-Aliassime lost to Cressy in four sets and in all honesty was a deserving loser. There's no doubt he's got plenty of talent, but there's definitely something missing between the ears. His key point performance today left a lot to be desired - he couldn't save the only break point he faced in the second set and then double-faulted to lose the third set tie-break. Some of that was to do with the pressure Cressy put him under by holding serve so easily - Cressy wasn't broken all match and only faced one break point - but there's more to it than that as his poor record in tournament finals shows.

My two dogs didn't even whimper let alone bark, with both players losing and putting up very little resistance. The end must be near for Lopez, who couldn't even get to a single tie-break and his serve was always his strong point on grass. Schwartzman gave Kozlov all the encouragement in the world and still ended up an easy winner and the 'Brit' double went down not because of Broady who won, but because of Evans who lost in straight sets as a strong favourite. The acca had a few losing legs but the one that really stood out for me as a bad selection with hindsight was Querrey. I shouldn't have gone anywhere near him as he's gone at the game and has been for some time. I thought this tournament would get his juices flowing but not a bit of it and losing to Berankis who is no fan of grass in straight sets is a really poor effort.

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Quieter day today with just one outright, a treble and an acca. For the outright I'm dipping my toe into the WTA with a bet on Swiatek, who played pretty well in the first round considering her lack of grass experience. She should make it through the next few rounds at least and with every match she'll get more comfortable on the surface. Her winning run shows no signs of stopping and as she's been dispatching opponents so comprehensively she can afford not to play as well and she should still be able to win. 

The treble consists of Alcaraz, Ostapenko and Jabeur. Jabeur should sail through against Kawa, and although Alcaraz and Ostapenko have harder matches I expect them both to progress. Alcaraz's superior return game should be the difference in his match against Griekspoor and Ostapenko should be able to stifle Wickmayer's resurgence unless she has an off day.

30pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.67 Betfair Exchange

10pts Alcaraz x Ostapenko x Jabeur @ 1.66 365

10pts Alcaraz x Ostapenko x Jabeur x Otte x Norrie x Dart x Riske x Mertens x Sakkari x Murray x Djokovic x Kerber x Bublik x Sinner @ 10.86 365

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Morning punters!

Two picks for today

Van Rijthoven@1.99 to beat Opelka pinnacle

Zhang@2.23 to beat Kostyuk pinnacle

Both prizes way too off imo.

 

Good luck everyone!

Edited by Dax
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Morning guys, the real CzechPunter will unfortunately be unavailable for a while, but I'll take over as his friend for a bit, hopefully it will work out well.

Today, I quite like Hontama to beat Parry at 2.30 with William HillI think the bookmakers are reading too much into Parry's victory over Kanepi. This is a completely different match-up, however, as Hontama can defend much better than Kanepi and also has some decent form on her side after qualifying.

On the men's side, I'm going with Peniston to beat Johnson at 1.71 with William HillJohnson was lucky to get past Dimitrov yesterday, and the in-form Peniston will take him out if he isn't sharp, which he hasn't been throughout the grass court season so far.

 

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Not a single cent on Alcaraz and Kyrgios any more till the end of this tournament. And i don't care if Alcaraz for example lifts the trophy at the end. For Kyrgios what i say is that he deserves a permanent ban from the ATP tour. As player, has nothing to offer, and Kyrgios will be  beaten soon.

Edited by delfino
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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Morning guys, the real CzechPunter will unfortunately be unavailable for a while, but I'll take over as his friend for a bit, hopefully it will work out well.

Today, I quite like Hontama to beat Parry at 2.30 with William HillI think the bookmakers are reading too much into Parry's victory over Kanepi. This is a completely different match-up, however, as Hontama can defend much better than Kanepi and also has some decent form on her side after qualifying.

On the men's side, I'm going with Peniston to beat Johnson at 1.71 with William HillJohnson was lucky to get past Dimitrov yesterday, and the in-form Peniston will take him out if he isn't sharp, which he hasn't been throughout the grass court season so far.

 

hope he is well and everything is okay. ☹️☹️🙏🏻🙏🏻

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On 6/10/2022 at 9:56 PM, Foo_Fighter said:

Andy Roddick's victory at the 2003 USO was the last time an American male won a Grand Slam. Shocking. Tennis is a sport which is growing worldwide but struggling to survive in the United States. Nobody seems capable of giving even a glimpse of the glorious past (Connors, McEnroe, Sampras, Agassi). I find it a bit humiliating for a nation like the United States, to have this long drought in men's tennis. Some say that Roger Federer undermined the fate of American tennis (Andy Roddick, James Blake) with his extraordinary dominance in the '00s. I don't know. One thing is certain, there's an absence of an American male superstar... It's time the USTA did something about this. 

Having said that, Americans are traditionally targeting Wimbledon with plenty of hope and ambition. The transition process from clay to grass doesn't bother them simply because they tend to skip the clay court season or because they're so poor on clay that they lose in the early rounds of the tournaments, hence being well rested for the grass court season which they all love. Also, Wimbledon is probably the most prestigious tournament in tennis; they can't afford to make the trip from America and show up overly weak and vulnerable. The axe from the media will fall heavily. 

I requested the following bet and my local bookmaker just issued it:

Any American player to reach SF, F or be the Winner 🏆 @25.5 

Maybe it's silly, who knows. 

 

10 out of 13 (77%) Americans prevailed yesterday which was good for me (only Querrey, Kudla and Kozlov were defeated).

Steve Johnson and Frances Tiafoe already won today and I hope Tommy Paul and Riley Opelka will do so as well. It'll be extremely difficult for John Isner to pull off the upset though. Andy Murray seems to be very focused and sharp. Christian Harrison retired after the 4th game against Oscar Otte but he wouldn't be a factor for the tournament anyway.

 

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Thanks for the wishes, I'll pass them on! 

For tomorrow I think Tan to beat Sorribes Tormo at 3.40 with Unibet represents tremendous value, and is all about whether Tan can survive it mentally after that incredible round one win against Serena. If she can, then she has every chance against Sorribes Tormo, who hardly has a good game for grass.

 

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18 hours ago, Torque said:

30pts Swiatek to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.67 Betfair Exchange

10pts Alcaraz x Ostapenko x Jabeur @ 1.66 365

10pts Alcaraz x Ostapenko x Jabeur x Otte x Norrie x Dart x Riske x Mertens x Sakkari x Murray x Djokovic x Kerber x Bublik x Sinner @ 10.86 365

Small loss on the day as the treble came in but the acca was sunk by Murray - although even if he'd won Mertens might have sunk it tomorrow. No complaints though - it could have gone down much earlier in the day when Norrie went 2 sets to 1 down against Munar, and it definitely should have gone down this evening when Udvardy had two points on serve to beat Mertens.

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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Thanks for the wishes, I'll pass them on! 

For tomorrow I think Tan to beat Sorribes Tormo at 3.40 with Unibet represents tremendous value, and is all about whether Tan can survive it mentally after that incredible round one win against Serena. If she can, then she has every chance against Sorribes Tormo, who hardly has a good game for grass.

 

Worth keeping the following in mind re Tan:, https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jun/29/wimbledon-harmony-tan-tamara-korpatsch-serena-williams-tennis

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I'm backing Djokovic again in the outrights after his clinical win over Kokkinakis. I really can't see who beats him if he continues to play at that level, and he usually improves as these tournaments go on as well. As previously mentioned, I can't see Nadal being able to be competitive until next weekend - although I'd love to be proved wrong as he's my favourite player - and after him in the betting comes Alcaraz and Tsitsipas who have it all to prove on grass. Beyond that there's Kyrgios, Fritz, Isner and Norrie who can all be discounted in my eyes for different reasons, plus the rest of the field at three figures or more each and so unless Djokovic's level drops drastically or he has to withdraw or is defaulted for some reason then this tournament is his to lose.

I'm also backing a double, a boosted treble and trying another acca. The double is Kyrgios and Bautista Agut, who should both win although Kyrgios no doubt won't make it easy. He's volatile which makes picking him risky, but then again his opponent Krajinovic is very inconsistent as well and so with that in mind I'm happy to back him as despite all the histrionics I think he's motivated and that should mean his greater talent will win the day. Bautista Agut really should beat Galan Riveros with plenty to spare and I'll be surprised if that doesn't turn out to be the case. He has a good record at Wimbledon and in total contrast to Kyrgios he can be generally relied upon to bring a steady level to every match he plays. He can rally all day if needed and that's a useful trait to have when facing a clay-courter like Galan Riveros and sooner or later - hopefully sooner - he'll take control of the match and edge ahead due to his high rally tolerance and not taking any risks with his shot selections.

The boosted treble also contains Kyrgios, plus Tsitsipas and Nadal. Tsitsipas faces a competent grass court player in Thompson and after an uninspiring win over Ritschard in the last round there's every chance this will be a difficult match for him but in the end I think he'll find a way to win, especially as I'm having a hard time imagining that Thompson will be able to get over the line if he gets in a position to do so - there's a reason he's ranked where he is compared to Tsitsipas and sometimes it's a simple as being able to get wins one way or another. Nadal plays Berankis and after his travails against Cerundolo I think this match will be over quickly. Berankis has a poor record on grass despite his surprisingly easy win against Querrey in the last round and I don't see him being able to live with Nadal in rallies the way that Cerundolo was able to, and so unless he successfully employs serve and volley tactics this should be a one-sided affair.

 

75pts Djokovic to win ATP Wimbledon @ 1.68 Betfair Exchange

10pts Kyrgios x Bautista Agut @ 1.43 365

10pts Kyrgios x Tsitsipas x Nadal @ 1.77 365

10pts Kyrgios x Bautista Agut x Fritz x Tsitsipas x Nadal x Tomljanovic x Kvitova x Badosa x Martic x Swiatek x Anisimova x Gauff x Halep x Sonego @ 6.55 365

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Morning punters!

Andreescu@1.813 to beat Rybakina pinnacle

BVA showed first class tennis last week in Bad Homburg reaching the final where she lost to Garcia, while Rybakina showed poor tennis on grass this season with a 2/2 score and during the first round against a former player like Coco.

Good luck everyone!

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1 hour ago, Dax said:

Morning punters!

Andreescu@1.813 to beat Rybakina pinnacle

BVA showed first class tennis last week in Bad Homburg reaching the final where she lost to Garcia, while Rybakina showed poor tennis on grass this season with a 2/2 score and during the first round against a former player like Coco.

Good luck everyone!

Agree about Andreescu. 365 have a boosted treble with her, Badosa and Gauff in it that's odds against so I'm having some of that.

10pts Badosa x Andreescu x Gauff @ 2.2

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4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Anyone who's backing Tan this day will likely be dissapointed

I think you could be right. I don't actually think she played that well against Williams and right now it's no exaggeration to say that Sorribes Tormo is an upgrade on her for Tan.

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4 hours ago, Torque said:

I think you could be right. I don't actually think she played that well against Williams and right now it's no exaggeration to say that Sorribes Tormo is an upgrade on her for Tan.

And ofcourse I was wrong on Tan anyway

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2 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

And ofcourse I was wrong on Tan anyway

It's not over yet @four-leaf Mertens is a great example of that. Saved two match points on return against Udvardy and eventually won - which was frustrating for my 10 to 1 acca yesterday which only ended up losing because of Murray :@

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