Wimbledon 2022

[Torque]

29 minutes ago, vvararu said:

Well… your name has to be Jelena Ostapenko to lead 4:1, have 2 match-points and lose the set :))

And then the match in similar fashion. As you suggest, not a massive surprise.

[Torque]

After Ostapenko nixed both of my bets today on the first leg, I'm placing another acca which is the same as the one that lost minus Ostapenko, at 4.60 with 365.

[bet4fun]

I think you will be surprised next Saturday to see the winner. its that kind of a tournament. I won't count off Tatjana Maria or Paula Badosa Gilbert to win the tournament. I dont think Jabeur is a good finisher late in the tournament and elise mertens can be quite a handful on her day

[bet4fun]

12 hours ago, four-leaf said:

I would say Alcaraz has a better chance to win Aussie open next year

true I dont think he can win anything till Novak or Rafa is around. He will mostly likely be beaten by Sinner whom I do pick for another surprise

[bet4fun]

don't count off Harmony Tan as well. she has been thrashing her opponents so far. her journey looks quite similar to Swiatek in 2020

[Torque]

6 hours ago, Torque said:

10pts Ostapenko x Alcaraz x Djokovic @ 1.91 365

10pts Alcaraz x Djokovic x Nadal x Kyrgios x De Minaur x Fritz x Ostapenko x Jabeur x Anisimova @ 5.52 365

Three losing bets today, including the ones above. Ostapenko was a heavy favourite but her inconsistency let her down again and Alcaraz was soundly beaten by Sinner. He couldn't cope with Sinner's big serve and heavy, deep groundstrokes which were amplified by the surface and when he did create opportunities he couldn't take them - Sinner saved all 7 break points faced. Throw in some sloppy service games and not being able to do nearly enough on Sinner's second serve and he never stood a chance.

[Torque]

We're at the stage of the tournament now where I want to start looking at backing other players in the outrights on the exchanges in order to minimise my liabilities - in the case of Djokovic - or recoup some losses - in the case of Swiatek. I'll do this by taking prices that I think are worth taking and the objective isn't necessarily to fully cover liabilities or losses as that sometimes requires chasing tactics, which as I've previously mentioned I don't use. 

As far as today goes I'm backing a boosted treble and an acca. The treble is Rybakina, Halep and Anisimova and whilst I'm not sure about Rybakina, I do think Halep and Anisimova will come through which makes the treble worth chancing in my eyes. The acca contains all of the ATP favourites - I'll be very surprised if any of them lose - as well as Halep and Anisimova and I'm also putting Djokovic into it as I think he'll beat Sinner tomorrow.

 

15pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 7.86

5pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 10.80

1pt Sinner to win ATP Wimbledon @ 29.42

1pt De Minaur to win ATP Wimbledon @ 49.02

15pts Anisimova to win WTA Wimbledon @ 10.31

10pts Niemeier to win WTA Wimbledon @ 17.17

1pt Rybakina to win WTA Wimbledon @ 18.64

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10pts Rybakina x Halep x Anisimova @ 3.37 365

10pts De Minaur x Kyrgios x Fritz x Nadal x Djokovic x Anisimova x Halep @ 4.41 365

Edited July 4, 2022 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

I was quite impressed by how Norrie dispatched Paul in the previous round, and I like him tomorrow against Goffin as well. The match odds aren't too great and the games handicap looks more dangerous than the set one, so I'll go with Cameron Norrie (-1.5 sets) to beat David Goffin at 1.83 with Unibet. Goffin won't be able to just move him around and beat that way, as he was able to do with Humbert & Tiafoe.

[four-leaf]

Hey all check out Blu Baker in Bogota challenger tonight in qualies on clay, young britt with some talent for challengers.

[matrixman]

Totally agree with poster above on Tan.If she can win like that vs Boulter with the home fans behind her she def can at least cover the handicap vs Aminisova.She has absolutely 0 to lose and is playing with House money for sure

 

Havent posted in a while but I do have Maria at 1000-1 to win the tourney and 66-1 to win her quarter.As well as Goffin at 500-1 and 33-1.Needless to say I will be hedging tomm vs the other german and Norrie to guarantee profit.

I follow posts here and thank you for everyone that contributes.

[Torque]

17 hours ago, Torque said:

15pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 7.86

5pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 10.80

1pt Sinner to win ATP Wimbledon @ 29.42

1pt De Minaur to win ATP Wimbledon @ 49.02

15pts Anisimova to win WTA Wimbledon @ 10.31

10pts Niemeier to win WTA Wimbledon @ 17.17

1pt Rybakina to win WTA Wimbledon @ 18.64

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10pts Rybakina x Halep x Anisimova @ 3.37 365

10pts De Minaur x Kyrgios x Fritz x Nadal x Djokovic x Anisimova x Halep @ 4.41 365

Not a bad day in the end with Nadal, Kyrgios, Anisimova and Rybakina through and the treble coming in. Slightly frustrating to see the acca go down with De Minaur as all the other legs won with only Djokovic still to come, but based on what I saw from 2-0 in sets to De Minaur it was the right result. Garin got his rewards for being far more adventurous than De Minaur and for serving and volleying well and playing the big points better. De Minaur reminds me very much of Auger-Aliassime, in that he can't be relied upon when the pressure is on.

[Torque]

On to today then and I'm taking three more outright positions, plus two singles and a boosted acca. The singles are Goffin and Maria, both of whom I think are overpriced. Goffin might struggle physically after a gruelling match in the last round but if he's been able to recover then I don't see why he can't trouble Norrie, who really struggled a couple of rounds ago against Munar. Maria has bamboozled better and more experienced players than Niemeier to reach this stage, so there's no reason why she can't do that again especially as she'll deprive her opponent of the rhythm she seems to favour from what I've seen.

In case my assessment of the above singles turns out to be wrong, the boosted acca I'm taking has Norrie and Niemeier in it plus Djokovic and Jabeur. If the singles both lose then I think this acca comes in, as I have Djokovic and Jabeur both winning their matches and that will cover most of the singles stakes.

 

10pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 6.10 Betfair Exchange

10pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 10.80 Betfair Exchange

25pts Jabeur to win WTA Wimbledon @ 3.21 Betfair Exchange

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20pts Goffin to beat Norrie @ 3.20 365

15pts Maria to beat Niemeier @ 2.63 Boyles

10pts Niemeier x Djokovic x Norrie x Jabeur @ 3.93 365

Edited July 5, 2022 by Torque

[Torque]

There's a boost that's gone up on 365 which I'm going to take and that's Jabeur to win whilst serving the most aces and the least double faults. Having had a quick look through her stats so far this tournament and also those of Bouzkova and bearing in mind I think Jabeur will win, this looks like a good way to support her at odds against. Two or three aces might end up being enough for that part of the bet and just one double fault from Bouzkova could see the other part come in.

10pts Jabeur to win, Serve most aces and least double faults @ 2.25

[CzechPunter]

Djokovic struggling big time, quite unexpected after the early break!

[CzechPunter]

Well, after that, hard to see who can beat Djokovic. Can only do him good imo.

[four-leaf]

@Torque with my own intuition coupled with some of your underdogs lately I've become rich.. Only for today a treble with over 3.5 set in Sinner/Nole Goffin/Norrie and Maria to win I won a handful of euros so thanks for your well thought out underdogs of late.

[Torque]

7 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@Torque with my own intuition coupled with some of your underdogs lately I've become rich.. Only for today a treble with over 3.5 set in Sinner/Nole Goffin/Norrie and Maria to win I won a handful of euros so thanks for your well thought out underdogs of late.

Thanks for the kind words @four-leaf It certainly makes a change to hear something positive like that.

[Torque]

17 hours ago, Torque said:

10pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 6.10 Betfair Exchange

10pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 10.80 Betfair Exchange

25pts Jabeur to win WTA Wimbledon @ 3.21 Betfair Exchange

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20pts Goffin to beat Norrie @ 3.20 365

15pts Maria to beat Niemeier @ 2.63 Boyles

10pts Niemeier x Djokovic x Norrie x Jabeur @ 3.93 365

A loss on the day as Goffin was just edged out by Norrie and after Maria beat Niemeier, which necessarily meant the acca lost. Jabeur made it through though after losing the first set of her match, so that's good news as I try to mitigate the loss on Swiatek in the outright market.

[Torque]

Forgot to mention the boost on Jabeur was also a loser. There were no aces at all in the match, and Jabeur 'won' the double fault count with two which I think is the most she's served here so far.

[Torque]

For today I've got three more outright bets, a boosted treble and an acca. I can see all of the favourites winning today and the treble has three of them in it, whilst the acca has all four as its base.

10pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange

15pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 14.72 Betfair Exchange

25pts Halep to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.92 Betfair Exchange

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10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal @ 2.99 365

10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal x Rybakina x Djokovic x Jabeur @ 4.44 365

Edited July 6, 2022 by Torque

[Stanimal]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

For today I've got three more outright bets, a boosted treble and an acca. I can see all of the favourites winning today and the treble has three of them in it, whilst the acca has all four as its base.

10pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange

15pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 14.72 Betfair Exchange

25pts Halep to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.92 Betfair Exchange

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal @ 2.99 365

10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal x Rybakina x Djokovic x Jabeur @ 4.44 365

I have a bad feeling about Nadal.  Fritz seems to be at his best and nadal didnt impressed me against botic. 

I have halep, rybakina, kyrgios, mertens / zhang and collins for today. 

[Torque]

2 hours ago, Stanimal said:

I have a bad feeling about Nadal.  Fritz seems to be at his best and nadal didnt impressed me against botic. 

I have halep, rybakina, kyrgios, mertens / zhang and collins for today. 

I agree that Nadal is vulnerable today but he looked ok to me against Botic right up until he served for the match. Fritz has the game to beat him as he showed earlier in the season, but I'm not convinced by him on grass and this is a big step up from what he's faced at this tournament so far. It may not be straightforward but unless Nadal's foot starts bothering him I think he'll make it into the next round.

[tobir_2501]

i think in the end it is also a question of experience. just like yesterday with djokovic

[CzechPunter]

Fritz's service motion is probably more reliable than Sinner's, which is always an issue when nerves come into play. Should be a cracking contest, Fritz certainly is dangerous on his day.

[Torque]

17 hours ago, Torque said:

10pts Nadal to win ATP Wimbledon @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange

15pts Kyrgios to win ATP Wimbledon @ 14.72 Betfair Exchange

25pts Halep to win WTA Wimbledon @ 2.92 Betfair Exchange

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal @ 2.99 365

10pts Halep x Kyrgios x Nadal x Rybakina x Djokovic x Jabeur @ 4.44 365

I'll start by saying I have no idea how Nadal won. He had no right to win that match. In the end he won through sheer force of will and mental strength and hopefully he's able to recover physically because he deserves to play the next round after a performance like that. I have to say I don't like his chances, especially after he mentioned his side issue in the on-court interview and if he is somehow able to play it's difficult to imagine he'll be at 100% which means Kyrgios will never have a better chance of making a Slam final. That's good news for my bets on Kyrgios in the outright market, although I don't see anyone but Djokovic winning the title now.

Nadal winning was the final piece of the treble jigsaw and the acca moves on to tomorrow, with Djokovic and Jabeur still to play. Halep getting through means there's a good chance I'll be able to record a smaller loss on the Women's side as I also have a bet on Jabeur and a small stake on Rybakina, so it was a good day overall.

[GhostLetter]

20 minutes ago, Torque said:

I'll start by saying I have no idea how Nadal won. He had no right to win that match. In the end he won through sheer force of will and mental strength and hopefully he's able to recover physically because he deserves to play the next round after a performance like that. I have to say I don't like his chances, especially after he mentioned his side issue in the on-court interview and if he is somehow able to play it's difficult to imagine he'll be at 100% which means Kyrgios will never have a better chance of making a Slam final. That's good news for my bets on Kyrgios in the outright market, although I don't see anyone but Djokovic winning the title now.

Nadal winning was the final piece of the treble jigsaw and the acca moves on to tomorrow, with Djokovic and Jabeur still to play. Halep getting through means there's a good chance I'll be able to record a smaller loss on the Women's side as I also have a bet on Jabeur and a small stake on Rybakina, so it was a good day overall.

I think that’s the story of the men’s Grand Slams so far in 2022, isn’t it? Nadal winning matches that he has no right to win.

I’m a bit fed up of it to be honest. I don’t feel like he wins by playing better tennis - he just wins through mental strength and turning the match into an endurance test. Today’s was a bit silly as well - his team were apparently signalling for him to retire from the match, and he decides to go against them and keep going. For what? Surely he knows that even if he somehow wins the match today, he can’t go any further in the tournament, if he’s injured?

I’m kind of torn - on the one hand it’s admirable, to want to finish every match and never pull out injured. On the other hand, it’s taking Taylor Fritz’s place away, if Nadal is too injured to do anything in the semi-final. That seems a bit unfair to me. 

[Torque]

Just now, GhostLetter said:

I think that’s the story of the men’s Grand Slams so far in 2022, isn’t it? Nadal winning matches that he has no right to win.

I’m a bit fed up of it to be honest. I don’t feel like he wins by playing better tennis - he just wins through mental strength and turning the match into an endurance test. Today’s was a bit silly as well - his team were apparently signalling for him to retire from the match, and he decides to go against them and keep going. For what? Surely he knows that even if he somehow wins the match today, he can’t go any further in the tournament, if he’s injured?

I’m kind of torn - on the one hand it’s admirable, to want to finish every match and never pull out injured. On the other hand, it’s taking Taylor Fritz’s place away, if Nadal is too injured to do anything in the semi-final. That seems a bit unfair to me. 

Fair points @GhostLetter 

I suppose Nadal would say his only responsibility is to himself and that he can't be expected to assume that he won't be able to play in the next round. As to the point about winning through mental strength rather than tennis, I'd say having that skill is a virtue and it's one of the reasons Nadal has been successful - there are so many players who can play great tennis but are sorely lacking in the mental department.

[matrixman]

Anyone seeing Maria having any chance at all tommorrow?

[Torque]

4 minutes ago, matrixman said:

Anyone seeing Maria having any chance at all tommorrow?

If she was playing a ball-basher, then yes. As it is, she's playing an upgraded version of herself. That said, anything is possible if Jabeur misfires like she did in the first set of the last round. One thing I am fairly sure of is that Maria will really fight to get through - she's done that in almost every round so far and that's such a valuable trait to have and it's enabled her to win matches that she shouldn't really have won. I won't be certain that Jabeur wins until the final point is played that's for sure.

[CzechPunter]

With the yesterday's match in mind, Kyrgios to beat Nadal at 1.70 with Unibet looks like a pretty good bet to me. Kyrgios tends to play his best against Nadal, he just wants to beat him incredibly badly, and, while he's likely to fold against Djokovic in the finals, I think that he's reaching his first chance to win a GS title in London this time around. Has the right profile to beat Nadal on grass.