Tennis Tips - May 10 - May 16

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Well, we'll have yet another Masters in Rome, then a small break before the French Open. Rome is way slower than Madrid, so a better estimate for the French Open.

[CzechPunter]

Caroline Garcia to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Oh, look, I'm going to have a stab at the WTA for once. Basically, I think the favorite is wrong here. Garcia hasn't played for a while, sure, and she's not that super talent that she was once seen as. That said, her losses so far in this season came against strong opposition and she's been generally very steady in matches she was supposed to win. Cocciaretto has gone down a bit, on the other hand, and she's recorded defeats against the very average Sanders and Dulgheru. The win over Babos was decent, but Babos is having problems of her own.

[lelit]

Garcia's father is no longer her coach, which could be seen in her recent bad results. I haven't heard who the new coach is.

Kenin's father is out too. Bencic played in Madrid also without her father and fiancé being present.

Edited May 9, 2021 by lelit

[CzechPunter]

Well, my point is, it seems that she's stabilized her bad results this year. The odds have even turned around it seems, with Garcia now being a slight favorite, which I think is correct. She's 7-7 this year, but I guess only those defeats against Doi and Golubic are "bad" results. Losing against Mertens twice, Osaka, Halep....that's nothing to be ashamed of.

[four-leaf]

17 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, my point is, it seems that she's stabilized her bad results this year. The odds have even turned around it seems, with Garcia now being a slight favorite, which I think is correct. She's 7-7 this year, but I guess only those defeats against Doi and Golubic are "bad" results. Losing against Mertens twice, Osaka, Halep....that's nothing to be ashamed of.

She beat Mertens in RG last fall by turning around 1 set and a break behind and after losing to Svitolina but she's been ok last 10 months.

[CzechPunter]

Alex De Minaur to beat Gianluca Mager at 1.64 with Pinnacle

Mager has shown some decent tennis recently, but so has the Demon and all his losses came against strong opposition. The Rome conditions should suit him a bit more I'd reckon, though this is more a bet on the overall class of the two.

[mark22]

Khachanov - Delbonis 2 @2.08 with WWin

Khachanov is in bad form lately, he can´t rely on his serve which gets him many ´´free points´´ in combination with strong forehand. On clay he lost 3/4 matches and slow surface in Rome will be another bad thing for him. Today he has a strong opponent, Delbonis has 17 wins on clay this season, his game is very consistent. He already beat Giron and Tiafoe here, so he adapted to conditions. I watched him against Berrettini and I was suprised by his game, so here as an underdog I´ll take him.

Dellien (-3.5 games) - Mannarino @1.75 with WWin 

Another pair from Rome. Dellien is decent player on clay, he crushed Bedene and Munar in quali. In first round of main tournament he got lucky with draw, because opponent is Mannarino. Player for hard/fast courts in my opinion will have troubles with conditions here, also his 0/6 record on clay in last matches won´t help him. First round exist in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid are latest results. I expect at least one very bad set from the Frenchman to help Dellien cover HC line.

[CzechPunter]

Well, here comes the bad run I guess ?. Let's hope Garcia confirms the odds reversal tomorrow!

[darko08]

Schwartzman to beat FAA at 1.57 with Pinnacle
Karatsev to beat Medvedev at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Goffin to beat Delbonis at 1.70 with Pinnacle

I know Schwartzman hasn't been playing well recently and I even backed Karatsev against him in Madrid but I expect him to do well here. The conditions here are much better for him. He reached the Final in 2020 and he even beat Nadal in straight sets. FAA has good results on clay but Schwartzman is better player on this surface. FAA has played a tough match against Krajinovic (6-3, 6-7, 6-4) in his first round here. I also take Karatsev cause Medvedev played worse than I expected in Madrid and the conditions here are worse for him so I don't expect him to do well here. Finally, I also take Goffin (vs Delbonis). I know Delbonis has been playing well recently but he has played too many matches. He has played 8 matches in the last 10 days and some of them have been really long matches. Goffin has won against Caruso in 2 sets in his only match played here and he will be more fresh than Delbonis.

[liquidglass]

6 hours ago, darko08 said:

Schwartzman to beat FAA at 1.57 with Pinnacle
Karatsev to beat Medvedev at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Goffin to beat Delbonis at 1.70 with Pinnacle

I know Schwartzman hasn't been playing well recently and I even backed Karatsev against him in Madrid but I expect him to do well here. The conditions here are much better for him. He reached the Final in 2020 and he even beat Nadal in straight sets. FAA has good results on clay but Schwartzman is better player on this surface. FAA has played a tough match against Krajinovic (6-3, 6-7, 6-4) in his first round here. I also take Karatsev cause Medvedev played worse than I expected in Madrid and the conditions here are worse for him so I don't expect him to do well here. Finally, I also take Goffin (vs Delbonis). I know Delbonis has been playing well recently but he has played too many matches. He has played 8 matches in the last 10 days and some of them have been really long matches. Goffin has won against Caruso in 2 sets in his only match played here and he will be more fresh than Delbonis.

I just think this tournament will kickstart a different part of the tennis calendar that will bring a few more new players into focus in line with their overall expectations . I do not care whether hard court or clay, I should be expecting more out of FAA at this time of the year looking ahead to a grand slam. He has played Schwartzman once in 2020 cologne indoors where Schwartzman won 6/4 5/7 6/4. He will know the Schwartzman game enough to move in for a surprise arrest. I think considering Schwartzman's current form FAA at 6/4 is a must play. I expect him to be clutch here and overpower Schwartzman in a straight exchange of firepower. Good luck

[CzechPunter]

Marton Fucsovics (+1.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 2.09 with Pinnacle

As much as I like Thiem, I have to oppose him here in some capacity. Something looked wrong with him in his match against Zverev, not sure if it was physical or mental, but he didn't look good out there. Fucsovics has been on a rise lately and has an easy match under his belt here already, so he should have the initiative going into this one. He also has a lot of belief after some big wins in 2021. At odds against, I have to pick him to take a set.

[liquidglass]

38 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Marton Fucsovics (+1.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 2.09 with Pinnacle

As much as I like Thiem, I have to oppose him here in some capacity. Something looked wrong with him in his match against Zverev, not sure if it was physical or mental, but he didn't look good out there. Fucsovics has been on a rise lately and has an easy match under his belt here already, so he should have the initiative going into this one. He also has a lot of belief after some big wins in 2021. At odds against, I have to pick him to take a set.

I did not think that there was anything wrong with Thiem as you have pointed out. He just was not motivated enough and may have just used that as entry level practice. On the other hand Zverev seemed to have bought a new bottle of mustard for his game. The new level of aggression was well welcomed with the groans of defiance at times. I noticed that he was almost breaking down at one point with the Berretini constant pressure. I feel Berretini lost the game from not holding on one or two games further. I still believe with a bit of mental tenacity, Zverev takes the French open as well!. Thiem still has time to rise to the challenge ahead.

[darko08]

I didn't check the weather for today and it was a rookie move. The little rain made the balls too heavy for Schwartzman. Obviously it wasn't a problem for FAA. 

[rainz]

2 hours ago, darko08 said:

I didn't check the weather for today and it was a rookie move. The little rain made the balls too heavy for Schwartzman. Obviously it wasn't a problem for FAA. 

thats the biggest excuse i have ever seen

[CzechPunter]

Not the best of first posts, @rainz. Try again, please.

[darko08]

It's not an excuse. Schwartzman played horrible and the fact that it rained did not help him at all. When it rains the balls get a lot heavier and that benefits big hitters. FAA is one of the players who hits bigger from the whole circuit while Schartzman lacks in power. I repeat, Schwartzman played horrible and the rain just made the things even worse. It doesn't matter how many reasons you can have to back a player cause at the end it only depends on them.

[CzechPunter]

Don't worry, @darko08. Crap like that happens.

[rainz]

Yea sorry, I watched and Schwartzman played horrible, a lots unforced errors and i guess the raindrops didnt change a lot to be honest, tho u meant it as a main factor.

[AgaRadwanska]

22 hours ago, darko08 said:

Schwartzman to beat FAA at 1.57 with Pinnacle
Karatsev to beat Medvedev at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Goffin to beat Delbonis at 1.70 with Pinnacle

I know Schwartzman hasn't been playing well recently and I even backed Karatsev against him in Madrid but I expect him to do well here. The conditions here are much better for him. He reached the Final in 2020 and he even beat Nadal in straight sets. FAA has good results on clay but Schwartzman is better player on this surface. FAA has played a tough match against Krajinovic (6-3, 6-7, 6-4) in his first round here. I also take Karatsev cause Medvedev played worse than I expected in Madrid and the conditions here are worse for him so I don't expect him to do well here. Finally, I also take Goffin (vs Delbonis). I know Delbonis has been playing well recently but he has played too many matches. He has played 8 matches in the last 10 days and some of them have been really long matches. Goffin has won against Caruso in 2 sets in his only match played here and he will be more fresh than Delbonis.

95% sure you're already aware of this but just in case you're not I feel it's worth mentioning that Goffin is only just back from injury, and combined with Delbonis being a big hitter, and with conditions being wet again tomorrow in Rome, I kind of feel hesitant to back Goffin at 1.70-1.75. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by AgaRadwanska

[liquidglass]

C. Norrie vs D. Fokina

 

Cameron Norrie has really been in good form and earns my respect. However with the stakes going much higher in the person of Fokina, I will have to overlook him here confidently. The odds have been screaming Davidoch Fokina all night and I have no reason to think otherwise. Good luck all.

[Stanimal]

1 hour ago, liquidglass said:

C. Norrie vs D. Fokina

 

Cameron Norrie has really been in good form and earns my respect. However with the stakes going much higher in the person of Fokina, I will have to overlook him here confidently. The odds have been screaming Davidoch Fokina all night and I have no reason to think otherwise. Good luck all.

So your bet is Fokina?

[delfino]

13 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

95% sure you're already aware of this but just in case you're not I feel it's worth mentioning that Goffin is only just back from injury, and combined with Delbonis being a big hitter, and with conditions being wet again tomorrow in Rome, I kind of feel hesitant to back Goffin at 1.70-1.75. 

I go with Karatsev and Goffin.

Thanks in advance Darko! I agree with your arguments, and i go with 9/10 confidence on both players to deliver!

 

13 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

95% sure you're already aware of this but just in case you're not I feel it's worth mentioning that Goffin is only just back from injury, and combined with Delbonis being a big hitter, and with conditions being wet again tomorrow in Rome, I kind of feel hesitant to back Goffin at 1.70-1.75. 

 

[888888]

anyone taking Jannik Sinner over 8,5 games?

He is playing at home with a very decent serve , Nadal not that young anymore is without doubt not as a good as before 

[four-leaf]

38 minutes ago, 888888 said:

anyone taking Jannik Sinner over 8,5 games?

He is playing at home with a very decent serve , Nadal not that young anymore is without doubt not as a good as before 

No he isn't not as good as before.. I'd say over 8.5 on Sinner looks decent.

[liquidglass]

4 hours ago, Stanimal said:

So your bet is Fokina?

The answer to your question was very clear in the wording of my post that the pick was clearly Fokina.

[CzechPunter]

Juan Manuel Cerundolo to beat Botic Van De Zandschulp at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Cerundolo is flying under the radar even despite winning the big event in Cordoba, but he's making strides on the Challenger circuit and he's doing very well on European clay. No surprises there, his playing style works best on slower clay and he's already beaten a better player than Van De Zandschulp here in Coria. I expected something like 1.57, so I'm more than happy to take the 1.71 that's on offer.

[liquidglass]

Alexandrova vs Pegula

Pegula really looks the top breed here especially with regards to current form. I think she will take some stopping after the Osaka spanking. The odds speak well . Banker material. Good luck!

[Stanimal]

What do you think about Tsitsipas - Berrettini and Pliskova - Zvonareva?

[martsman]

Think Tsitsipas at 1.44 is still a good bet. Berrettini looked tired against Millman and was struggling in the first set, having reached the finals last week. Tsitsipas lost early last week, looked great against Cilic and should be a massive favourite to win this. Berrettini does have a big serve and Tsitsipas is a bad returner (though not that bad on clay). I see a set or two going to tiebreak, but Tsitsipas should definitely pull this off.