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Alright, going for a couple already and wishing everyone good luck :ok.

Diane Parry to beat Vera Lapko at 5.10 with Unibet

Unibet have a 1st set rule for retirements and great odds for this, so I'm going to bite. I've been watching Parry recently and she's not bad at all, she can certainly play well in France and I'm sure that she's going to play her heart out here. Obviously, there's a massive quality gap between the two and Lapko should be able to win this 6-2 6-2 or so on that basis, but she's been pretty poor so far this season and even retired last time out, so I don't really trust her. She's certainly not a player that you should be adding to your first round accas for various reasons and I'm even willing to go against her at massive odds.

Barbora Strycova to beat Samantha Stosur at 1.60 with Pinnacle

Stosur has been falling away from the top for quite a few years now and the return to clay hasn't really helped her either, she was really poor last time out and I can't even remember seeing her play well. Strycova can have her bad days, of course, but she's been doing much better than Stosur recently and the fact that this isn't reflected all that much in her W/L ratio is down to some bad draws imo.

J.Tipsarevic/G.Dimitrov - Over 3.5 sets at 1.90 with Betsson

Although I don't really see Dimitrov failing yet again, Tipsarevic should be able to hit freely and get something. Both guys are the types to get stuck into some sort of a dogfight with plenty of nerves and momentum shifts, so I like the odds for this going on for at least a little while.

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One more for me for day one now that the schedule is out.

Garbine Muguruza (-1.5 sets) to beat Taylor Townsend at 1.83 with BoyleSports

Didn't know which handicap to choose, hopefully it won't go like it has way too often recently with the other one winning and this one losing. Anyway, Muguruza should win this comfortably enough if she's at least reasonably healthy. Townsend is too much about ball-bashing for her game to work on European clay and her movement has never been...well...good, so I expect Garbine to just expose her easily.

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And this outright.

Petra Kvitova to beat Naomi Osaka at 1.72 with Bet365

While Kvitova isn't the best of the best on clay, she has a markedly easier draw than Osaka early on, so I like the price. Honestly, Osaka could lose to anyone starting with round two looking at it - and that's why I think the odds are worth taking. Not because Kvitova is the better of the two of clay (although she might be that as well), but because she should be able to just stroll past the first few rounds.

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Dominic Thiem to win the 2nd Quarter at 1.90 with Bet365

I've been thinking about this bet since the odds got posted, but I'm now jumping in after seeing that Pinnacle are offering the same thing at 1.56 or so. That's low imo, but I can see where the thinking is coming from, as Thiem is not only the best player in the quarter, but also arguable the fittest one. Given that, give me Thiem.

John Millman (+2.5 sets) to beat Alexander Zverev at 1.99 with Pinnacle

Millman is obviously no force on clay, but Zverev has been so crappy in recent times that I don't trust him to have no problems in this one and I like the odds for him to drop a set quite a bit. Millman has the fighting qualities to drive Zverev nuts and we all know that Zverev isn't one of those players that fight at hundred percent at all times, so I can even see him dropping the third set with a 2-0 lead in hand in some cases.

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David Goffin (-2.5 sets) to beat Ricardas Berankis at 1.77 with local bookie Soccerbet

Although Gofan is not in the best shape, I still believe he can win in straight sets. Berankis did beat him in Doha at the opening of the new season,but it was under different circumstances. In 2019 Bearnkis have played one (yes,just one) match on clay and it was in Geneva last week. He lost against Uchida 46 46. So,if Uchida was able to beat him without dropping a set,why wouldn't Goffin do the same? I feel like Lithuanian is here just to collect prize money. 

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Few personal opinions apart from the picks above.

I agree Millman is capable of an upset of Zverev.I'll be taking a side one on this one.

I was looking forward to take on Cameron Norrie before Kyrgios pulled out.No one believes he's really ill n he hates clay season with a passion.

Weren't he to take on a serious player in the 2nd round I'd have considered him to go on a bit further. Mikael Ymer will be decent n I expect him to win his first match art RG.I'd stay away from Jarry Vs DelPo.Most unpredicted 1st round match.

Kohlschreiber is a formidable opponent especially this year but I think there's value in taking R Haase against him based on motivation.Also Lloyd Harris prefers hard courts to clay I don't see why he's the favourite to beat Rosol who despite being poor in form on a good day is decent on Clay.Thoughts @South_African_Punter

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I agree about Millman. He must have a chance to at least take a set as Sascha is all over the place right now. He's just won Geneva but it was such a struggle - apart from his first round every match was three sets and he only got the better of Jarry in a final set tie-break which it looked as though he did his best to throw away after building a big lead.

It would be so ironic if this is to be the tournament where Sascha makes his grand slam breakthrough when his form is just not there after the last few years where he's been playing well but couldn't translate that into deep runs in the slams. I certainly wont be backing him and it'd be a brave person that did based on his season so far.

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Albert Ramos to beat Laslo Djere at 2.15 with betsson

It's all about probability in this one and I rate the probability of this happening higher than the current odds of 2.15. Albert has been in the quarterfinal of Roland Garros before and knows how to play in grand slam events while Laslo is 1-6 in GS maindraw matches. I expect Laslo to run into some major difficulties against Albert. They met once before and Albert won 2-1 back in 2017 in Marrakech.

Peter Gojowczyk to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 4.50 with Unibet

Peter has beaten J-W before and most importantly on indoor hard and even in a 5 set Davis cup thriller by 8-6 in the decider. I think Peter could have enough to win this again even though his form isn't the best but neither is J-Ws form and I think clay suits Peter a little bit better and he's got the matchup advantage and knows how to find break opportunities in the J-W serve. Better chances of an upset than the odds suggest at least.

Sveta Kuznetsova to beat (-1.5 sets) Kristina Kucova at 2.04 with Unibet

Sveta could not have asked for a more favorable first round opponent. Kristina hates clay and she's never won a set in Roland Garros maindraw and her last two visits have been first round straight sets losses to Shuai Zhang 6-0 7-5 and Sam Stosur 7-5 6-0. She's done well to reach the maindraw from qualification but her opponents weren't really hard at all but she still had problems in last match against Katie Swan but won in a decider. Sveta should have many opportunities to break and could win in straight sets.

Kateryna Kozlova to beat Bernarda Pera at 2.35 with Unibet

Kateryna most famously knocked out reigning champion Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets last season in Roland Garros first round and later lost in second round. Bernarda Pera also won her first round match in Roland Garros last season and she beat Elena Vesnina but I don't rate that performance at all and she later also lost in second round. Anyway I don't see what makes Kateryna the underdog in this one. Kateryna has a higher ranking now (66), close to her career high 62 and I rate beating Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets higher than Bernarda beating a Elena Vesnina with retirement in her sights. Should be more  even odds here I think. 

Roger Federer to beat (-6.5) Lorenzo Sonego at 1.97 with betsson

I think I have to rate Rogers chances pretty high here. I don't think Lorenzo will get many looks into Rogers serve but Roger should find ways to find breakpoint opportunities on the Lorenzo serve. It might take some time but once Roger gets a break it could be a rout. This could even be covered in 4 sets.

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@Hermes

I'd take the safer bet of Millman winning a set. Millman, despite having little pedigree on clay, has impressed me this year on clay, with some good performances. However, I think Sascha will have gained a lot of confidence this past week in Geneva and he will have momentum on his side.

I think Del Potro will win easily - Jarry will be nervous (as he was yesterday) and JMDP greatly impressed me nearly beating Djokovic in the Rome Masters, despite it being only his 2nd or 3rd match back from injury.

Yes, in South Africa, we only have hard courts, so I would take Rosol over Harris as well.

 

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I'm starting to believe that May is indeed cursed now with Muguruza!

Regarding Harris - he looked good on clay in Ostrava, but that doesn't mean all that much obviously.

Jordan Thompson to beat FAA at 3.35 with Pinnacle

FAA is injured and considering withdrawing. Don't take this at bookies that void retirements - and, if you can take it at one that doesn't void after the first ball, do that.

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6 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm starting to believe that May is indeed cursed now with Muguruza!

Regarding Harris - he looked good on clay in Ostrava, but that doesn't mean all that much obviously.

Jordan Thompson to beat FAA at 3.35 with Pinnacle

FAA is injured and considering withdrawing. Don't take this at bookies that void retirements - and, if you can take it at one that doesn't void after the first ball, do that.

Sad for FAA if he is indeed injured.He was to make a run at US Open last year n now.He has no luck at Grand Slams.

Edited by Hermes

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French Open 1st round matches:

VANDROUSOVA-WANG 2:0 SETS @ 1.41 pinnacle
BENCIC-PONCHET 2:0 SETS @ 1.32 pinnacle
SEVASTOVA-6GAMES HANDICAP OVER KUMKHUM @ 1.58 pinnacle
SEVASTOVA-KUMKHUM 2:0 SETS @ 1.32 pinnacle
BEGU-LIN 2:0 SETS @ 1.5 betfair sportsbook and other bookies
SAKKARI-7GAMES HANDICAP OVER TATISHVILI @ 1.43 pinnacle

All picks on clay court players with good recent form against an out-of-form opposition with no good record on clay.

 

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Seriously, I can't remember ever having such a bad luck regarding handicaps in the past. Thanks Garbine :@. Meanwhile, the odds for Parry have dropped by a significant margin, that probably means that Lapko is going to win 6-1 6-1 knowing my recent fortunes.

@eros Which first outsider pick?

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Leonardo Mayer to beat Jiri Vesely at 1.65 with 888sport

Leonardo owns a 5-1 record in this matchup having won 3 of them on clay and once in 5 sets in Roland Garros. I think Leo will take this again, Jiri isn't really good enough to compete at top 100 level right now. He struggles in challengers nowadays.

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8 hours ago, Hermes said:

Sad for FAA if he is indeed injured.He was to make a run at US Open last year n now.He has no luck at Grand Slams.

Felix Auger officially out.Groin injury incurred 1st set Vs Paire at Lyon Open final on Saturday.You have to feel for the guy.He also had a favourable draw all the way to 3R to meet Delpo as the 1st serious competition of his caliber in his quarter.Damn

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Parlay at 6.71 with Coolbet

Maria Sakkari to beat (-7.5) Anna Tatishvili at 1.85

Anna hasn't played a match since 2017 when she retired in an american ITF semifinal and on clay she's only played two matches and it was in 2017 also last time she played on clay and she retired 4-1 down in first set of the last match on clay in that same tournament where she beat an unknown player. Maria should take this one easily. 6-1 6-2 maybe isn't such a bad call and that makes the -7.5 handicap look good on Maria here.

Lauren Davis to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.96

Lauren has a 2-0 record in this matchup and Kristyna has never won a match at Roland Garros but Lauren has won a 3 matches in qualifying and one in maindraw before. I feel like Lauren has an edge here so I think she can win and formwise Lauren won Bonita Springs ITF beating some top 200 players recently on clay so I think Lauren seems to have good enough form.

Gilles Simon to beat (-2.5 set) Sergiy Stakhovsky at 1.85

Gilles owns a 5-0 record versus Sergiy and 4-0 in ATP maindraw matches with only one set lost on indoor hardcourt in Marseille 2015. They last met in Antwerp 2018 and Gilles won 6-0 6-4. Sergiy is useless on clay and nowadays not going very strong anywhere he goes. His ranking is somehow quite ok anyway but he failed to qualify and comes in here as a lucky loser. Gilles shouldn't have any problems here.

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Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 2.00 with Unibet

Worth a shot at evens imo. Not only does Cilic have a good record against Dimitrov, but the Bulgarian has also been in a truly dreadful form recently and even nearly lost against Tipsarevic in the first round despite dominating in the first two sets. The surface obviously plays into Dimitrov's hands, but everything else should be in the Croat's favor.

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