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37 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm not really willing to go against Mladenovic in France at such odds myself, but good luck if you bite.

She's got a record of 10-17 when playing in France as the underdog. This drops to 6-14 on clay. If you squeeze it to when she's between odds 2.00 and 3.00 then she's 4-7. About the right price. I think she's the right price but I think Martic will edge it. Good luck if you get involved!

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4 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

Londero to beat Gasquet - 1.85 with SportingBet

Can't read too much into Gasquet's win over Zverev given Zverev's form. Londero demolished Basilashvili and in general he's having a stellar season. It's likely that Gasquet will run out of the gas the longer the game goes on.

Brilliant! And by the way - odds were even higher at betfair for example (2.1)

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On 5/27/2019 at 12:58 PM, CzechPunter said:

Nicolas Mahut (+2.5 sets) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 2.20 with Pinnacle

I don't think that another big upset is on the cards here, but 2.20 for a set looks like too much for me and I wouldn't have this above 1.83 honestly. Mahut was very inspired on Sunday and he was hitting the ball incredibly well, while Kohli allowed himself to drop a set against Haase. He's certainly the big favourite and he's going to go through, but, at the same time, he's becoming prone to lapses now that he's aging and I think that Mahut is going to find enough heart to get a set here more often than not.

Mahut the best.

Kohli dead 1set

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Konta to beat Davis 2-0 - 1.68 on Betfair

Davis is playing lots on clay but the quality just isn't there. Where Konta is reaching the Rome final, Davis is reaching the Bonita Springs Final where she didn't meet anyone in the top 150.

Davis is 1-17 against the current top 50. 

Now, Konta is in form with reaching the Rome final. As a sub 1.4 fave she's 14-1 and her last 23 matches as a sub 1.4 fave have all been straight sets. 

Konta to hopefully blow her off the court in straight sets. 

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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Rafa is going to have trouble sleeping tonight, Mahut is the favourite for the title :lol.

@CzechPunter Rafa may have trouble sleeping tonight, however Mahut is not his main worry. He is thinking about Novak Djokovic. 😉

Edited by Foxstar
ammendment

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Marketa Vondrousova to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro at 1.53 with BetVictor

R.Federer/C.Ruud - Over 3.5 sets at 2.14 with Unibet

CSN is slowly falling away from the top, while Vondrousova is going in the opposite direction and I just can't see her letting this one go. She can both attack and defend, while CSN really can do only the latter. Two struggles already for her and this should be the end of the road. Meanwhile, I wasn't too impressed by Federer's performance against Otte today, he looked sluggish and Otte was able to outplay him in certain sections of play. Ruud is a much better player than Otte and he has the right mentality for a challenge like this imo, so I think that we're going to see at least four sets in that one more often than not.

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the wta match the intrigues me today is the sabalenka vs anisimova. I have seen some of their previous matches. Saba has not been impressing me much, while i saw anisimova's match against bertens and she looked good. Clay might be more suitable to anisimova than to saba. your thoughts?

 

another wta match which might offer some value is Bolsova vs sorana. Sorana struggled in her previous match while Bolsova has won 4 on the trot. at odds of 2.14 there seems to be some value. 

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23 minutes ago, Sm0k3rZ said:

the wta match the intrigues me today is the sabalenka vs anisimova. I have seen some of their previous matches. Saba has not been impressing me much, while i saw anisimova's match against bertens and she looked good. Clay might be more suitable to anisimova than to saba. your thoughts?

 

another wta match which might offer some value is Bolsova vs sorana. Sorana struggled in her previous match while Bolsova has won 4 on the trot. at odds of 2.14 there seems to be some value. 

No idea what suits each player more. Drawing Kiki close after she won Madrid doesn't seem to impressive. Amanda Anisimova is making tons of unforced errors lately and has been doing so after she won her first title in Bogota.

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Kyle Edmund bt Pablo Cueves with betfair at 2.45

I'm going to go for Edmund, hopefully this isn't bias talking but thought he looked good against Chardy and his shaky confidence should of got a huge boost. Not too impressed with Cueves and don't think he'll perform as well as Chardy did.

Jordan Thompson bt Ivo Karlovic with betfair at 1.62

Odds are dropping on this and I believe its because Karlovic is struggling with the 5 set format. Considering taking Jordan on a -1.5 set handicap as well. Karlovic beat Lopez in a poor game, Lopez actually put a lot back in play but straight down the serve/volley throat. Karlovic shouldn't break Thompson at all really.

Edited by CSanders22

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Cirstea to bt Bolsova 1.79 Betfair.

Bolsova won 4 on the trot but Vera was the only top 100 player and she is crap now. Before that she lost in three to Bains (#242) after winning the first set 6-0. She is 2-2 in main draw matches on the tour, most of her experience is still down at ITF level. Her two wins coming against Vera last time out and Di Lorenzo (#167).

Cirstea has been playing at this event for over ten years. She won as an underdog last time out against Juvan and reached the SF in Nurnberg, losing to Putintseva. Before that she lost to Garcia in Madrid. 

In the last 12 months against players ranked 100 or below Cirstea is 6-0 on clay. Nice price for me here. 

 

Anisimova to bt Sabalenka - 2.16 Betfair.

Anisimova won in Bogota but hasn't been as great since. Apart from the defeat to Kostyuk in Madrid her matches have gone as expected. 

Sabalenka has been awful for a while. She had a few wins in Strasbourg but nothing amazing. 

She's 4-4 on clay as a fave this year, she's underperforming compared to market opinion. Anisimova already beat her on fave hardcourt this year. 

She plays nearly twice the amount of her tennis on clay compared to Sabalenka (33% to 19%) and I make this more a 50/50 match so going with the odds against. 

 

Swiatek to bt Wang - 1.7 Betfair

Swiatek ranked higher on clay (50 to 87 for Wang), Wang plays just 9% of her tennis on clay compared to 60% for Swiatek. Swiatek reached the Lugano final recently and is 8-2 on clay this year. 

Wang has lost 4 of her last 6 matches. She's 4-5 on clay this year. I don't think she can cause an upset here. 

 

 

 

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Mike Ymer to beat Sascha Zverev at 6.40 with Pinnacle

Mike is the worst possible kind of opponent for Sascha right now aside from the top tier players. Mike plays his best tennis when nobody expects it from him and here I can see him taking his biggest win ever. I don't even think this would be such a big upset as it looks with Sascha in his current form.

Sascha seems to be desperate for form and confidence, thats why he has been playing so many tournaments and why he went to play a, for him, quite useless Geneva tournament ahead of Roland Garros. Sascha has played too mutch tennis lately and I think it could be his undoing in this match against the grinding Mike.

Mike had a great start in RG, he didn't play for two weeks until the qualifiers which was a very good choice to make and he got through them in three setters against Roberto Marcora, Johan Tatlot and Henri Laaksonen. He was in trouble in the second round against Johan Tatlot who was up 5-2 but Ymer is such a force to be reckoned with when he's at his best and he eventually won the match after saving 6 matchpoints.

They already met back in 2015 in Stockholm open and Sascha won then by 2-1 but I think I'll take my chances with Mike here.

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Mike Ymer to beat Sascha Zverev at 6.40 with Pinnacle

Mike is the worst possible kind of opponent for Sascha right now aside from the top tier players. Mike plays his best tennis when nobody expects it from him and here I can see him taking his biggest win ever. I don't even think this would be such a big upset as it looks with Sascha in his current form.

Sascha seems to be desperate for form and confidence, thats why he has been playing so many tournaments and why he went to play a, for him, quite useless Geneva tournament ahead of Roland Garros. Sascha has played too mutch tennis lately and I think it could be his undoing in this match against the grinding Mike.

Mike had a great start in RG, he didn't play for two weeks until the qualifiers which was a very good choice to make and he got through them in three setters against Roberto Marcora, Johan Tatlot and Henri Laaksonen. He was in trouble in the second round against Johan Tatlot who was up 5-2 but Ymer is such a force to be reckoned with when he's at his best and he eventually won the match after saving 6 matchpoints.

They already met back in 2015 in Stockholm open and Sascha won then by 2-1 but I think I'll take my chances with Mike here.

Sasha??

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1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Yes Alexander is called Sascha just like you can call Alexander Bublik Sascha Bublik.

Yea, okay. I was a bit confused... Sorry thx for the info

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Mike Ymer to beat Sascha Zverev at 6.40 with Pinnacle

Mike is the worst possible kind of opponent for Sascha right now aside from the top tier players. Mike plays his best tennis when nobody expects it from him and here I can see him taking his biggest win ever. I don't even think this would be such a big upset as it looks with Sascha in his current form.

Sascha seems to be desperate for form and confidence, thats why he has been playing so many tournaments and why he went to play a, for him, quite useless Geneva tournament ahead of Roland Garros. Sascha has played too mutch tennis lately and I think it could be his undoing in this match against the grinding Mike.

Mike had a great start in RG, he didn't play for two weeks until the qualifiers which was a very good choice to make and he got through them in three setters against Roberto Marcora, Johan Tatlot and Henri Laaksonen. He was in trouble in the second round against Johan Tatlot who was up 5-2 but Ymer is such a force to be reckoned with when he's at his best and he eventually won the match after saving 6 matchpoints.

They already met back in 2015 in Stockholm open and Sascha won then by 2-1 but I think I'll take my chances with Mike here.

Mikael is a better matchup than Millman. He is more aggressive and less perserving i think. He doesnt have much experience in 5setters. Millman played well cause of the long rallyes. We wont see many of them today because both players will get on the early point and Sascha has the weapons in serve and backhand to win the most of it

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29 minutes ago, Lorenzi Musetti said:

Mikael is a better matchup than Millman. He is more aggressive and less perserving i think. He doesnt have much experience in 5setters. Millman played well cause of the long rallyes. We wont see many of them today because both players will get on the early point and Sascha has the weapons in serve and backhand to win the most of it

Thanks! I think I'll cash-out my bet on Mike then after reading your post and seeing the odds on Mike going up.

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Hsieh to bt Petkovic - 1.75 leaving unmatched for in play on Betfair

Hsieh is reliable enough as a fave, especially on clay. Petkovic is 1-6 as a dog this year and 0-3 on clay. She's lost 6 of the last 7 with the only win coming against Ostapenko who is as good as my nan at the moment. 

Risk of this not being matched if she breaks early but I think it might take a few games to settle down so trying to nick some extra value. 

Edited by Tennis Picks

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S.Tsitsipas (-5.5 games) to beat F.Krajinovic @1.65 with Soocerbet (local bookie)

Tsitsipas is in excellent shape. He won the first two matches relatively easily while Krajinovic had to play two marathon-matches. The second one (vs Baena) was especialy tough. Today Filip withdrew from doubles as a precautionary measure. He's not injured,but he is tired. Also,take note that Filip doesn't like to play against players of Tsitsipas profile.

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I was a big DelPo fan once, but this match seals the deal for me once and for all, I've become tired of his tirades. They aren't as flashy and bizarre as what Kyrgios is doing, but it's nonetheless gamesmanship at its finest and I have no idea why everyone is still so nice to him as if he was some sort of a folk hero :lol. If Nishioka had a brain, he would've won this in four sets max, but he doesn't, so he apparently thinks that he can just outhit DelPo from the baseline - and DelPo is once again doing his best trying to look like he's on the verge of dying. So I guess that the Argentinian is now going to take this and everyone's going to be ecstatic about how he's fought against another injury. For me, he's become more obnoxious than Paire - and that is saying something.

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Nicolas Mahut to beat Leonardo Mayer at 3.95 with 888sport

The man is on a mission and he had 2-0 on Marco Cecchinato and 1-0 on Philipp Kohlschreiber and he's got 2-0 in this matchup and both times in straight sets and once on clay. I like home players on a mission so Nicolas to win this for me.

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As I said, I was a big fan and his GS win was absolutely fantastic. I'm just not a big fan of players who pretend that they are going to collapse at any moment while still being able to play a decent game. He's not alone in this and you may have a different opinion, but I just have to say that he's been a bit of a drama queen way too often recently. If you can't play, you can always retire from a match, there's no shame in doing that. If you can play, however, there's no need to remind us how hurt you are after nearly every single point.

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Parlay at 49.61 with 888sport

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat -6.5 games at 2.12

Stefanos in his prime, how can I not have him in this parlay.

Sloane Stephens to beat (-1.5 sets) Polona Hercog at 1.79

It's 3-0 for Sloane in this matchup and she's beaten Polona in straight sets every time and twice on clay and last time in Madrid this season and Polonas record in Roland Garros really sucks.

Nicolas Mahut to beat Leonardy Mayer at 3.80

Odds have gone down a bit on Nico but I still think it's worth taking.

Marketa Vondrousova to beat (-3.5) Carla Suárez Navarro at 1.88

Completely agree with @CzechPunter on this one. It should be the end of the road for CSN and likely so in straight sets and then Marketa should cover the 3.5 handicap.

Stan Wawrinka/Grigor Dimitrov over 37.5 games at 1.83

Judging by the way both have been serving this tournament I'd be surprised to see this not going over this line. Should be at least 4 sets with a tie-break or two possible.

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