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Wawrinka to beat Federer looks tempting, best odds around 3.44 (Marathonbet) at the moment. H2H in last 3 matches on clay is 2-1 for Wawa, those are from 2015 and 2014 so these two haven't met on clay quite recently.

Roger has a chance here because of the marathon match that Stan had to go through. Stan still has one day of rest here and we know how good his stamina is. Roger hasn't been tested here at all so that's why the odds are like this. I think this will be much closer match than the odds suggest if Stan's recovery goes well.

Edited by Judeksi

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12 hours ago, Anaxagoras said:

Hey guys, I've been following this forum for quite some time. I'd like to make some contributions as well. 

Martic vs Kanepi

Martic seems to be in top form in 2019 clay court season. She spent around 3.5 hours on court in 3 matches while Kanepi spent 6 hours. This is Martic's match to take. 

Nishikori vs Paire

Main reason I'm taking Kei is because Paire should be exhausted. He was in Lyon last week and played 9 singles and 4 doubles match in a matter of 13 days. This must take its toll on him. Nishikori seemed a bit shaky in his last match against Djere but if Paire can't cut this match short, it will favor the japanese imo. 

Parlay @ 2.09

 

I'm confident that Nishikori will complete the match tomorrow, but I'm gonna cover my bet now that Paire's odds are around 7.00. 

Edited by Anaxagoras

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Parlay at 3.11 with Unibet

Fabio Fognini to beat Sascha Zverev at 1.83

Completely agree with @CzechPunter here and all others who think Fabio reaches his second career quarter final.

Ashleigh Barty to beat (-1.5 sets) Sofia Kenin at 1.70

Risky bet this one but I think it's looking probable that Ash wins in straights judging by the way she's been playing this tournament.

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2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Parlay at 3.11 with Unibet

Fabio Fognini to beat Sascha Zverev at 1.83

Completely agree with @CzechPunter here and all others who think Fabio reaches his second career quarter final.

Ashleigh Barty to beat (-1.5 sets) Sofia Kenin at 1.70

Risky bet this one but I think it's looking probable that Ash wins in straights judging by the way she's been playing this tournament.

Well that parlay didn't work out :\

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Parlay at 4.26 with Betsson

Novak Djokovic/Jan-Lennard Struff over 3.5 sets at 2.90

Just a question how fatigued J-LS will be but I think he can focus enough for a chance to take a set.

Juan-Martin Del Potro to beat Karen Khachanov at 1.49

J-MDP has 3-0 in this matchup and looks like a likely winner so I'm going for that record J-MDP has over Karen. All three meetings took place last season.

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Kei Nishikori to Win a Set (vs. Nadal) at 3.40 with Bet365

Although I don't exactly believe this is going to happen, I have to take it on, say, technical terms. 3.40 is just too much imo, especially given that Nadal failed to be clinical against Goffin in the third set. Nishikori is likely to run out of steam, so I cannot even imagine him winning this, but he's not such a bad player to deserve such a price for a single set.

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Roger Federer to beat (-1,5 Sets) Stanislas Wawrinka at 1.72 with 888

Wawrinka has been 8 hours on court in his last 2 matches (5.11 h against Tsitsipas; 3.20 h against Dimitrov) and that is 1 hour more than the time that Federer has been on court in his 4 matches together. I know that the opponents that Stan has faced can't be compared with the opponents that Federer had but considering that Federer dominates the h2h 22-3 and the time that Stan has been on court it is hard not to pick Federer here (even he said that he preferred Stan to win the match between against Tsitsipas). I also have to say that Tsitsipas had 27 BP against Stan and he only converted 5 (my feelings in the last two sets was that Tsitsipas should have won that but Stan' experience was decisive

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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Kei Nishikori to Win a Set (vs. Nadal) at 3.40 with Bet365

Although I don't exactly believe this is going to happen, I have to take it on, say, technical terms. 3.40 is just too much imo, especially given that Nadal failed to be clinical against Goffin in the third set. Nishikori is likely to run out of steam, so I cannot even imagine him winning this, but he's not such a bad player to deserve such a price for a single set.

Completely agree with this. It may not happen but at the price it's a must play. Even if Nadal wins the first two sets all isn't necessarily lost as the Spaniard has had problems in the third set of all of his matches so far. GL :ok

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2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, I get it. I tried having blacklists once, but I found out that I would very quickly run out of players to bet on :lol.

I look at it another way with players like Fognini, Kyrgios and Gulbis et al. I don't blacklist them because that denies me the opportunity to take advantage of their unpredictability. In my experience they are predictably unpredictable -  what I mean by that is that if they aren't expected to win then they'll have every chance and I'll look to back them, but if they are expected to win then there's a good chance they'll lose and so I go against them. I don't have figures to confirm it's a winning strategy but I'd be surprised if it isn't.

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Sloane Stephens to beat Johanna Konta at 1.67 with William Hill

After seeing the way Stephens beat Muguruza i have to pick her here. Muguruza was playing very well and she did not play a bad match against Stephens but she was outclassed by the american anyway. Both players prefer different surfaces but Sloane defends Final and her W/L record on clay is slightly better than Konta. Another factor is that Konta has not played any big player yet while Stephens has faced Muguruza in her last match. The only thing i don't like is that Konta won against Stephens in Rome just 3 weeks ago in a 3 set match. Anyway, I think Stephens is one of the most complete players of the circuit and i see her making another Final this year.

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Stephens is my second money printer. Stephens to beat Konta.

Money printer based on Stephens very reliable returning style, which in my opinion will force Konta to make a lot of mistakes. Konta who? no chance

Money printer 10/10  Stephens @1.60 offered by bet365

Good luck my punters! We need luck to support us, as she did in previous money printer on WAW, but today I thing we need just little luck, because Stephens is young and healthy while WAW is old and not that healthy any more. 

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Wawrinka to beat Federer at 3.40 with Bet365

I am quite surprised to see such odds. Stan showed great tennis last games defeating Tsitsipas and Dimitrov. Federer has won his four games so far, but he played against far easier opponents. Today is expected to rain in Paris and this would give advantage for Wawrinka, as the court will be slower and the balls will be heavier.  Stan won 2 of the last 3 games of clay between these rivals and I do not see him as an outsider here.

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3 minutes ago, i1_principe said:

Wawrinka to beat Federer at 3.40 with Bet365

I am quite surprised to see such odds. Stan showed great tennis last games defeating Tsitsipas and Dimitrov. Federer has won his four games so far, but he played against far easier opponents. Today is expected to rain in Paris and this would give advantage for Wawrinka, as the court will be slower and the balls will be heavier.  Stan won 2 of the last 3 games of clay between these rivals and I do not see him as an outsider here.

My value radar shows the same signal - but i'm still thinking about it

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1 hour ago, delfino said:

Stephens is my second money printer. Stephens to beat Konta.

Money printer based on Stephens very reliable returning style, which in my opinion will force Konta to make a lot of mistakes. Konta who? no chance

Money printer 10/10  Stephens @1.60 offered by bet365

Good luck my punters! We need luck to support us, as she did in previous money printer on WAW, but today I thing we need just little luck, because Stephens is young and healthy while WAW is old and not that healthy any more. 

LOL with the money printer. If you win this second match I might become a money printer believer.

On Stephens too at -150.

Also think Martic +1.5 sets is golden. Martic +1.5 sets/Stephens +1.5 sets EVEN MONEY

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2 hours ago, i1_principe said:

Wawrinka to beat Federer at 3.40 with Bet365

I am quite surprised to see such odds. Stan showed great tennis last games defeating Tsitsipas and Dimitrov. Federer has won his four games so far, but he played against far easier opponents. Today is expected to rain in Paris and this would give advantage for Wawrinka, as the court will be slower and the balls will be heavier.  Stan won 2 of the last 3 games of clay between these rivals and I do not see him as an outsider here.

Good point about the weather! I just hope Stan's recovery has gone well and he doesn't get tired early on. He needs to grab at least one set right away from Roger so he can start tiring him, otherwise Federer can start cruising with his serve. If this goes over 3 sets then Wawa has a chance IMO. Roger is still great in best of 3 matches but he can start fading away in longer matches, just like he did in the AO couple months ago against Tsitsipas (Stefanos won that in the fourth set). GL with the bets!

 

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