French Open 2019

[CzechPunter]

Nicolas Mahut (+2.5 sets) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 2.20 with Pinnacle

I don't think that another big upset is on the cards here, but 2.20 for a set looks like too much for me and I wouldn't have this above 1.83 honestly. Mahut was very inspired on Sunday and he was hitting the ball incredibly well, while Kohli allowed himself to drop a set against Haase. He's certainly the big favourite and he's going to go through, but, at the same time, he's becoming prone to lapses now that he's aging and I think that Mahut is going to find enough heart to get a set here more often than not.

[CzechPunter]

In-play 10pts on Lapko to beat Parry at 2.62 with Bet365

In case the nerves fail.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, eros said:

Strong game by Tommy Paul so far. If he plays always like he is playing now against Thiem he would be Top 10.

Well give the guy some time, he's been injured a lot in his career and he's still just 21.

Edited May 27, 2019 by four-leaf

[Smiles Tennis]

Andreescu to bt Bouzkova - 1.66 Betfair. 

In play at 1 set all. Andreescu took a while to find her shots and still hit a shit load of winners in the first set which she lost. She picked it up in the second and should be a bit of value to take this. 

Bouzkova is 2-9 in main draw matches and even lost in straight sets in qualifying as a 1.3 fave to Samsonova who before the FO had lost five straight matches to players all ranked below #150 and some down lower than #350. 

 

 

[CzechPunter]

So far so good with Parry carrying the day. Just Millman for me today, but adding one more for tomorrow.

Polona Hercog to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.60 with Unibet

Hercog's game is better suited for clay and her movement is better than Brady's as well, which is obviously a major factor in the French Open conditions. She's lost only against better players on clay so far in this season (Keys, Stephens, Peterson) and I expect that trend to continue.

[Kokukepo]

On 5/27/2019 at 1:45 AM, four-leaf said:

Parlay at 6.71 with Coolbet

Maria Sakkari to beat (-7.5) Anna Tatishvili at 1.85

Anna hasn't played a match since 2017 when she retired in an american ITF semifinal and on clay she's only played two matches and it was in 2017 also last time she played on clay and she retired 4-1 down in first set of the last match on clay in that same tournament where she beat an unknown player. Maria should take this one easily. 6-1 6-2 maybe isn't such a bad call and that makes the -7.5 handicap look good on Maria here.

Lauren Davis to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.96

Lauren has a 2-0 record in this matchup and Kristyna has never won a match at Roland Garros but Lauren has won a 3 matches in qualifying and one in maindraw before. I feel like Lauren has an edge here so I think she can win and formwise Lauren won Bonita Springs ITF beating some top 200 players recently on clay so I think Lauren seems to have good enough form.

Gilles Simon to beat (-2.5 set) Sergiy Stakhovsky at 1.85

Gilles owns a 5-0 record versus Sergiy and 4-0 in ATP maindraw matches with only one set lost on indoor hardcourt in Marseille 2015. They last met in Antwerp 2018 and Gilles won 6-0 6-4. Sergiy is useless on clay and nowadays not going very strong anywhere he goes. His ranking is somehow quite ok anyway but he failed to qualify and comes in here as a lucky loser. Gilles shouldn't have any problems here.

Hi,

 

The odds on sakkari winning -7.5 is -1.33 while the odds on the under 16 games is 1.07 (sbobet)

 

Isnt it more profitable to bet on the under then?

 

Please advise

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to the forum @Kokukepo!

I'm not quite sure what format you're using for the odds, but there is a difference between the two bets in any case. If the score ends 6-2 6-2, for example, Under 16 Games is a push, while the -7.5 handicap is a win.

[DrO]

How many chances did Millman throw away in two sets

[Kokukepo]

25 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Hi and welcome to the forum @Kokukepo!

I'm not quite sure what format you're using for the odds, but there is a difference between the two bets in any case. If the score ends 6-2 6-2, for example, Under 16 Games is a push, while the -7.5 handicap is a win.

Hi , thanks @CzechPunter, i understand your explanation, but i am thinking, (in sbobet)

Sakkari -7.5 is -133 or decimal odds 1.75
Tatishvili +7.5 is +109 or decimal odds 2.09
Over 16 games is -133 or decimal odds 1.75
Under 16 games is +107 or decimal odds 2.07

in theory, if we expect Sakkari to win by at least 8 games, this means, more often than not, it will be within 2 sets. 
either a 6-0 6-0, 6-1 6-1, or at the very least,  6-2 6-2  . which is a maximum of 16 games.

However , the under 16 games is at a much better odds than -7.5 handicap.
I understand that if the score turns out to be 6-2 6-2 then we get a push (which is better than losing)
But if we are confident that Sakkari will win at least 8 games, wouldn't it be better to "not pay the juice" in this case?

 

[South_African_Punter]

43 minutes ago, DrO said:

How many chances did Millman throw away in two sets

Finally got the set. Thanks @CzechPunter for the tip.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, Kokukepo said:

Hi , thanks @CzechPunter, i understand your explanation, but i am thinking, (in sbobet)

Sakkari -7.5 is -133 or decimal odds 1.75
Tatishvili +7.5 is +109 or decimal odds 2.09
Over 16 games is -133 or decimal odds 1.75
Under 16 games is +107 or decimal odds 2.07

in theory, if we expect Sakkari to win by at least 8 games, this means, more often than not, it will be within 2 sets. 
either a 6-0 6-0, 6-1 6-1, or at the very least,  6-2 6-2  . which is a maximum of 16 games.

However , the under 16 games is at a much better odds than -7.5 handicap.
I understand that if the score turns out to be 6-2 6-2 then we get a push (which is better than losing)
But if we are confident that Sakkari will win at least 8 games, wouldn't it be better to "not pay the juice" in this case?

 

It might be better but I wouldn't feel as confident about it..

[CzechPunter]

Yes, if you are confident, then sure.

[CzechPunter]

Jordan Thompson to beat Ivo Karlovic at 1.76 with Pinnacle

Beating Fokina is certainly a bigger achievement than beating the already half-retired Lopez, so I'm going to side with Thompson here. He might not be a clay court specialist, but the surface should nonetheless suit him a bit more and Karlovic is bound to get exposed at least every now and then. Feliciano was a great draw for him in the first round, but this should be much tougher now that he has to face someone who can actually defend.

[four-leaf]

Cristian Garin to beat Stan Wawrinka at 2.55 with Unibet

I don't find Stan in any position to beat a player like Christian who's playing lights out nowadays on the clay.

Edited May 28, 2019 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Benoit Paire to beat (-3.5) Pierre-Hugues Herbert at 1.80 with 888sport

With the form Benoit currently is in I think he's got a wonderful chance to beat his compatriot again. Benoit owns a 2-1 lead in this matchup winning the last two on grass in Wimbledon 2017 by 3-0 and he covered the 3.5 line easily then and they met in Marrakech this season and Benoit won 6-4 6-2. Judging by the way Benoit ran over Marius Copil he probably wont have any major difficulties to read P-HH serve and he outclasses him when it comes to baseline rallies.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Jordan Thompson to beat Ivo Karlovic at 1.76 with Pinnacle

Beating Fokina is certainly a bigger achievement than beating the already half-retired Lopez, so I'm going to side with Thompson here. He might not be a clay court specialist, but the surface should nonetheless suit him a bit more and Karlovic is bound to get exposed at least every now and then. Feliciano was a great draw for him in the first round, but this should be much tougher now that he has to face someone who can actually defend.

Doesn't it scare you that Jordan lost to Ivo in Roland Garros 2016 by 12-10 in the fifth set?

[CzechPunter]

26 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Doesn't it scare you that Jordan lost to Ivo in Roland Garros 2016 by 12-10 in the fifth set?

The only thing that might indicate is that Thompson might have some choking issues. Karlovic has certainly gone down in terms of quality (movement in particular) since then, so it's hard to be scared.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

The only thing that might indicate is that Thompson might have some choking issues. Karlovic has certainly gone down in terms of quality (movement in particular) since then, so it's hard to be scared.

Well I hope you're right because I've picked Jordan in a parlay now with another bookie called Coolbet where I've just opened a new account because they have the swedish betting license required for having swedish customers. They've got pretty decent prices. Sometimes better than Pinnacle but their selection of handicaps and under/over bets are limited.

[four-leaf]

Lucas Pouille to beat Martin Klizan at 1.49 with Pinnacle or 1.50 with Coolbet

Lucas looked like he found some serving skills in his last match winning 47 of 51 first service points. Even though it was Simone Bolelli he met it's still good. He's beaten Martin before in their only meeting and it was on clay in straight sets in Budapest quarterfinal. Martins form isn't good either and it was apparent in the last match and his record in Roland Garros is completely useless. With Lucas having reached the third round last two seasons in RG it feels very mutch like Lucas will win this time again.

[Smiles Tennis]

Hercog to beat Brady 1.79 with Betfair

As already mentioned, Hercog has only lost to better players on clay recently. She plays more on the dirt with 56% specialisation on clay compared to Brady who plays only 25% of her matches on clay. 

Brady hasn't won two matches in a row on clay since April last year and even then two of the players she beat (winning 3 in a row) were ranked below #300. She had trouble against Jorovic. 

She hasn't won two matches in a row on clay against top 300 opponents for over 3 years. 

Hercog has 20 titles, all on clay. Brady has 4 titles with 1 on clay. Looking at the surface ranking, Hercog is #30 with Brady at #193. 

Hercog is great value here. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Tennis Picks
Adding detail

[Smiles Tennis]

Kudermetova to beat Diyas - 1.61 with Betfair

 

Diyas not really playing on clay with recent matches coming on hardcourt and carpet. She is 3-15 against the current top 100 on clay going back five years. Some value in Kudermetova. 

Kudermetova plays 30% on clay compared to 18% for Diyas with similar rankings for the surface. Kudermetova played 15 matches on clay this year already (9-6) compared to the one match for Diyas. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Tennis Picks

[four-leaf]

Polona Hercog to beat (-1.5 sets) Jennifer Brady at 2.75 with Betfair

They have met once in 2016 on clay in Rio open and Polona won 6-4 6-2 back then so it could be something of a repeat of that today. I'll take my chances, good value on Polona in straight sets anyway.

[South_African_Punter]

Londero to beat Gasquet - 1.85 with SportingBet

Can't read too much into Gasquet's win over Zverev given Zverev's form. Londero demolished Basilashvili and in general he's having a stellar season. It's likely that Gasquet will run out of the gas the longer the game goes on.

[WinningTipster]

French Open 2nd round match:

KARLOVIC-THOMPSON OVER 44 GAMES @ 1.89 pinnacle
expect it to be at least 4 long sets match, may be 5 sets.

 

[four-leaf]

Too many mistakes from Polona Hercog today and her opponent played very good aggressive tennis.

[CzechPunter]

...and she's also already missed a couple of match points .

[four-leaf]

10 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

...and she's also already missed a couple of match points .

She missed three in second set. I expected her not to commit unforced errors on her two matchpoints in the tie-break but she did and eventually lost the set. But keep in mind that Polona has only been past the second round once back in 2010 in Roland Garros so she's got some issues getting further in this gs.

[four-leaf]

Alexander Bublik to beat (+9.5) Dominic Thiem at 1.98 with 888sport

Alexander owns a pretty big serve and can keep it competitive just like Tommy Paul did last round. Dominic had issues with Tommy and Alexander looked to be in pretty good mood last round as he hit a nice winner from between his legs. Alex Bublik is certainly not a claycourter but he's had pretty good results on the challenger tour last months winning 3 titles. He didn't look to bad last match when he defeated Rudolf Molleker and should be able to keep this close enough.

[Sm0k3rZ]

whats the opinion on Mald vs martic match? martic should edge it in my opinion. Tho Mlad will have the crowd behind her which as we know can be a big factor. @CzechPunter ur view?

[Smiles Tennis]

Martic to beat Mladenovic 2-1 - 4.8 with Betfair.

Both decent and both in form. Martic only lost to Sloane and Woz on clay since Miami, going 13-2 along the way, with a win over Mladenovic in that run. 

Mladenovic also on a good run, losing to Sakkari, Kvitova, Martic and Halep on the clay. Martic slightly edges it as the odds show, and with a clay ranking of #41 compared to #174 for Mladenovic, the odds on a close Martic win are decent for me.