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Racing Chat - Friday 13th May

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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York 1.50

16 fillies go to post for the listed Marygate Fillies Stakes run over 5F for two year old’s. Richard Hannon’s Amo Racing owned Miami Girl looked a bit special when an impressive 5 1/2L winner on her debut at Newmarket. She apparently lives on her nerves a bit but if she can re-produce that run here should be hard to beat. There’s plenty of other promising two year old fillies in opposition including David Loughnane’s Carmela, Alice Hayne’s Fix You and Karl Burke’s Yashat but I’m sticking with the visual impact that Miami Girl made on her debut. Rossa Ryan rides again today.

 

MIAMI GIRL 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Newbury 2.05

A disappointing turnout for this 6F class 2 handicap with just seven declaring. Despite the numbers it has a very open look about it with the outsider only a 7/1 chance. Charlie Hills’ Ibiza Rocks was a bit disappointing on his re-appearance and drops down to 6F from 7F today. He has claims along with Mitrosonfire who was a progressive three year old sprinter last season winning four times. William Muir and Chris Grassick train him and if straight enough could be the one here with good ground likely to suit him well. In a competitive sprint I’ll play him to small stakes.

 

MITROSONFIRE 1 point win @ 13/2 William Hill

 

York 2.25

A dozen three year old fillies go to post for this listed Michael Seely Memorial Fillies Stakes run over a mile. John and Thady Gosden appears to have some decent three year old fillies on their hands this season including Wednesday’s Musidora winner Emily Upjohn and last years top rated filly Inspiral and saddle their Ascot winner Grande Dame here. She impressed me when winning that day as she looked in trouble coming into the straight but when the penny dropped she circled the field and won like a good horse. Her connections have since entered her for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes and the hint should be taken here. Her big danger appears to be the William Haggas trained Perfect News who has the form in the book and was a 4 1/2L 4th in the Nell Gwyn behind subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Cachet. I was mightily impressed by Grande Dame’s win at Ascot and she could be very good so gets the vote for the in form team of the Gosden’s and Frankie Dettori.

 

GRANDE DAME 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

York 3.00

A dozen handicappers go to post for the Paddy Power “I Love Steak” Handicap run over 1m 2 1/2F. I have a strong fancy here in the Tom Clover trained Rogue Bear who’s caught many peoples eyes in his two runs this season in valuable handicaps at Doncaster and Newbury. He’s stepping up in trip here but a quick look at his breeding shows plenty of stamina on his distaff side and he looks sure to run his race here so warrants a strong bet. Top weight Belloccio has always been held in high regard by his trainer David Menuisier though is 5lb higher now than when winning the Roseberry Handicap at Kempton 25 days ago and may chase the selection home.

 

ROGUE BEAR 3 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

York 3.35

A small but select turnout of five for this year’s renewal of the Yorkshire Cup a group 2 contest run over 14F of the Knavesmire. Any softening of the ground would very much be in the favour of Max Vega and Tashkan but this may be fought out by the eight year old super star Stradivarius and two year younger mare Search For A Song trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld. John and Thady Gosden are having a good week and their Stradivarius is going for his sixth course win here under just a 3lb penalty. Conditions look ideal and with Frankie Dettori in the saddle will be very popular with the Yorkshire punters. He’s sure to run his usual solid race and with first time out figures of 5111131 has shown he runs well fresh although at eight one would expect it to be harder to get him fit. We know for sure that Search For A Song will be fit as she’s already been seen this Spring when running her owners Kyprios to 2 3/4L at Navan in a listed contest. I’ld love, like most racing fans, to see Stradivarius win again but at the prices I’ll happy to back Dermot Weld’s mare to small stakes.

 

SEARCH FOR A SONG 1 point win @ 5/1 Bet365

 

York 4.10

We finish off the ITV coverage with a eight runner 1m 4F class 3 handicap for three year olds where it appears that Charlie Appleby holds the key. Godolphin’s main trainer saddles two interesting runners in Wild Crusade, presumably the pick of James Doyle who’s making his turf debut having won twice at this trip at Kempton on the all weather and the Frankie Dettori ridden New Comedy who scraped home by a neck under Doyle in a Haydock novices stakes over this trip and makes his handicap debut here today. Charlie and Mark Johnstone saddle Pons Aelius who’s chasing a handicap hat trick following two victories at Wolverhampton although is now 8lb higher here and looks best of the rest. This revolves around the Godolphin duo with preference for Wild Crusade and he’s the bet.

 

WILD CRUSADE 3 points win @ 2/1 Paddy Power

 

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

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Posted (edited)

First 2yo patern race in england, not much to go on but value can always be found in these races so here are the numbers for speed.

150 york

1 primrose ridge        120 16/1 6th

2 beautiful eyes         119  12/1 4th

3 lost angel                116  16/1 9th

thoughts on other tv races

205 newb                  mitrosonfire                good value at 10/1 if tuned up on seasonal debut. took a walk in market

225 york                    rishes baar                  will give this one more chance, something seemed amiss lto but 20/1 is value no show

300 york                    miramachi                  good form over this trip last season and Dascombe needs a tv winner for cred now he is independant 4th bumped but no excuse

335 york                    thunderous                 ran well behind Hamish lto and 11/1 seems good value to me against an aging stradavarious which is far too short fto this season. ran a good race and was arguably a tad unlucky having nothing to race against

 

Edited by Zilzalian
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black rabbit

black rabbit

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Posted (edited)

Summa peto   3 00 york     1/5 pt win    18/1     { there may be a plunge on price}

Fonteyn   2 25 york   1/4 pt win    7/1       WON         

 

 

 

 

P/L  + 132 pt    { does not include yesterdays results } 

Edited by black rabbit
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Darran

Darran

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Posted
The last at Aintree tonight is a point to point bumper. Like the Exeter one last month this race is specifically for horses who have run in a point this season. On paper it doesn't look a strong contest.
 
Broomfields Cave - Didn't show too much in Ireland, but won both starts since coming over here. Was very well backed on his first start where he was spooked at the first by a loose dog (sadly no video footage) and he nearly unseated. He beat 2 horses there and had 3 in the race he won by 30L at Chilfrome last time. He beat nothing there though and I'm pretty neutral about his chances as he might be good enough, but at the same time I prefer others in the race.
 
Just Four Fame - Found himself outpaced at Chaddesley Corbett last month over just over 2m3f and on debut he probably would have been 4th if the horse who was going to win didn't have their saddle slip on the run in and if My Virtue hadn't slipped round the bend. Good jockey, but not sure he has the pace for this.
 
Santos Blue - Was put in at some fancy prices last night which not surprisingly were taken. On debut he won a 3 runner point to point bumper and he then went to Larkhill over 2m4f where he was closing when falling at 2 out. The winner of that race has been sold for £30k since. He went back to Larkhill for his next start but unseated at the 3rd when badly hampered. A week later he went to Horseheath where he was a well beaten 2nd, but the winner was very impressive and has been sold for £30k. There were only 3 finishers and he was 30L in front of the other one who has won twice since. James King rode him in hist first 3 starts and does so again tonight.
 
Tufton Avenue - Won a match at Paxford where not surprisingly the time was very slow. Quickened away well but the other one was a well beaten 5th on debut so I doubt he achieved much. Off course on the flipside we don't know how good he might be, but under priced at the moment for me. Has already tried to be sold but didn't reach his reserve of £50k although that seemed staggering high for a horse winning a match.
 
Fascinating Rhythm - Would have been in front of Macavity at Charm Park on his 2nd start but for unseating 2 out and he was still in with a chance of winning. Found himself outpaced in a point to point bumper on his debut when a 3L 3rd although the winner is now with Gordon Elliott. Was beaten a short head over 3m and then won by 17L over the same course and distance. To me he looks more of a stayer and he might find this test too sharp, but I do like his form certainly compared to most of these.
 
Good Boy - He was an easy winner of a point to point bumper at Sandon a month ago on debut where he had Sugar Pi 17L back in 3rd. Not sure the form is overly strong, but he looked green and there should be more to come. The bigger concern is Gina chooses to rides the stablemate.
 
Intrepide Sud - And here is said stablemate who finished alone at Garthorpe in a 2m4f maiden although he would have won anyway. He jumped novicey and was clearly still green as he flashed his tail on the run in. On the face of it I was more impressed with Good Boy, but Gina would know better than me and so you have to say he is the most likely winner out of the two. Has already been tried to be sold and went through the ring at £24k unsold. 
 
Macavity - Recorded a slow time last time especially given he got the 14lbs allowance for his age. A couple of weeks before he won a weak race where the favourite pulled up after the rider lost their irons and the 2nd has been beaten since. On debut he was beaten over 40L and as mentioned above would have been beaten by Fascinating Rhythm. I think backers have to hope that a 2m1f bumper suits him better than Fascinating Rhythm otherwise I can't see that form being reversed.
 
Sugar Pi - Stuffed in his first two point bumpers and can't see any reason why he would reverse form with Good Boy from last time.
 
My Virtue - Was last and well beaten in a point bumper on debut at Bangor in March, but that did come on very testing ground and she ran much better on her next two starts. She was bang in contention at Maisemore when clipping heels coming round the bend and she would have likely been well clear of Just Four Fame. Had an easy task to shed her maiden tag at Eyton last time in a match and if the ground was to blame for the Bangor run then I think her chance is better than the odds suggest.
 
Verdict - I don't think this is a particular strong renewal of this race on paper and it looks fairly wide open. Part of the problem is a few of these have been running and winning in small fields so it's hard to judge how much ability they actually have. I thought Good Boy won well on debut, but Gina has chosen Intrepide Sud over him and it would be surprising if she got it wrong, but they both look to have a chance. I think Fascinating Rhythm has the best form in the race, but it is a worry that he was outpaced in a bumper on debut and he looks more of a stayer. The one I like the most is Santos Blue who has managed to win a 2m flat race (albeit only had 2 rivals) and I think he has come up against good horses in the 2 maidens he got the furthest in. There is a good chance that at Horseheath he just didn't stay up the hill as well as the winner which is why he was beaten so far, so this test should be more suitable. 
 
To be honest apart from Sugar Pi and Just Four Fame you could understand why one of the others could win or more have enough ability to win, but I do think the complete outsider My Virtue is overpriced at 50/1. She has a good jockey claiming 3lbs and if she hadn't run at Bangor or had completed at Maisemore then there is no way she would be priced up anywhere near those odds. I have to have a small bet on her as well.
 
Santos Blue 1pt @ 7/1 with most bookies (take up to 5/1)
My Virtue 0.25pts e/w @ 50/1 with everyone (take up to 20/1)
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Villa Chris

Villa Chris

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Posted

In pub as we speak so not got the actual numbers with me, but 5.50 Aintree I’ve got Gaelik Coast , Barton Knoll and Morning Vicar pretty much equal so just had Combination Forecast 

7.00 Aintree 

Flash The Steel 

Captain Morggs 

Flash Steel pulled up last 3 times. Blinkers added but if on going day he’s won much better races. 
 

I’ll risk 5 points on him at 12/1

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

3.00 york 

Love is golden  8.9  14/1 

Miramichi     8.6    10/1 

Rouge bear    8.2 

Rogue bear could be a danger stepping up in trip but I'll try ew on the top 2 as they look value bets at this distance 

2x 5pt ew top 2 

2nd 3rd 4th ....Will be paid ew on both 

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black rabbit

black rabbit

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Posted
6 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Summa peto   3 00 york     1/5 pt win    18/1     { there may be a plunge on price}        unplaced

Fonteyn   2 25 york   1/4 pt win    7/1       WON         

 

 

 

 

P/L  + 132 pt    { does not include yesterdays results } 

WINNER  AT 7'S       so few beers and a curry {again } i think  /  

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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On 5/12/2022 at 12:58 PM, The Brigadier said:

York 1.50

16 fillies go to post for the listed Marygate Fillies Stakes run over 5F for two year old’s. Richard Hannon’s Amo Racing owned Miami Girl looked a bit special when an impressive 5 1/2L winner on her debut at Newmarket. She apparently lives on her nerves a bit but if she can re-produce that run here should be hard to beat. There’s plenty of other promising two year old fillies in opposition including David Loughnane’s Carmela, Alice Hayne’s Fix You and Karl Burke’s Yashat but I’m sticking with the visual impact that Miami Girl made on her debut. Rossa Ryan rides again today.

 

MIAMI GIRL 2 points win @ 7/2 BetVictor

 

Newbury 2.05

A disappointing turnout for this 6F class 2 handicap with just seven declaring. Despite the numbers it has a very open look about it with the outsider only a 7/1 chance. Charlie Hills’ Ibiza Rocks was a bit disappointing on his re-appearance and drops down to 6F from 7F today. He has claims along with Mitrosonfire who was a progressive three year old sprinter last season winning four times. William Muir and Chris Grassick train him and if straight enough could be the one here with good ground likely to suit him well. In a competitive sprint I’ll play him to small stakes.

 

MITROSONFIRE 1 point win @ 13/2 William Hill

 

York 2.25

A dozen three year old fillies go to post for this listed Michael Seely Memorial Fillies Stakes run over a mile. John and Thady Gosden appears to have some decent three year old fillies on their hands this season including Wednesday’s Musidora winner Emily Upjohn and last years top rated filly Inspiral and saddle their Ascot winner Grande Dame here. She impressed me when winning that day as she looked in trouble coming into the straight but when the penny dropped she circled the field and won like a good horse. Her connections have since entered her for the Group 1 Coronation Stakes and the hint should be taken here. Her big danger appears to be the William Haggas trained Perfect News who has the form in the book and was a 4 1/2L 4th in the Nell Gwyn behind subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Cachet. I was mightily impressed by Grande Dame’s win at Ascot and she could be very good so gets the vote for the in form team of the Gosden’s and Frankie Dettori.

 

GRANDE DAME 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

York 3.00

A dozen handicappers go to post for the Paddy Power “I Love Steak” Handicap run over 1m 2 1/2F. I have a strong fancy here in the Tom Clover trained Rogue Bear who’s caught many peoples eyes in his two runs this season in valuable handicaps at Doncaster and Newbury. He’s stepping up in trip here but a quick look at his breeding shows plenty of stamina on his distaff side and he looks sure to run his race here so warrants a strong bet. Top weight Belloccio has always been held in high regard by his trainer David Menuisier though is 5lb higher now than when winning the Roseberry Handicap at Kempton 25 days ago and may chase the selection home.

 

ROGUE BEAR 3 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

York 3.35

A small but select turnout of five for this year’s renewal of the Yorkshire Cup a group 2 contest run over 14F of the Knavesmire. Any softening of the ground would very much be in the favour of Max Vega and Tashkan but this may be fought out by the eight year old super star Stradivarius and two year younger mare Search For A Song trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld. John and Thady Gosden are having a good week and their Stradivarius is going for his sixth course win here under just a 3lb penalty. Conditions look ideal and with Frankie Dettori in the saddle will be very popular with the Yorkshire punters. He’s sure to run his usual solid race and with first time out figures of 5111131 has shown he runs well fresh although at eight one would expect it to be harder to get him fit. We know for sure that Search For A Song will be fit as she’s already been seen this Spring when running her owners Kyprios to 2 3/4L at Navan in a listed contest. I’ld love, like most racing fans, to see Stradivarius win again but at the prices I’ll happy to back Dermot Weld’s mare to small stakes.

 

SEARCH FOR A SONG 1 point win @ 5/1 Bet365

 

York 4.10

We finish off the ITV coverage with a eight runner 1m 4F class 3 handicap for three year olds where it appears that Charlie Appleby holds the key. Godolphin’s main trainer saddles two interesting runners in Wild Crusade, presumably the pick of James Doyle who’s making his turf debut having won twice at this trip at Kempton on the all weather and the Frankie Dettori ridden New Comedy who scraped home by a neck under Doyle in a Haydock novices stakes over this trip and makes his handicap debut here today. Charlie and Mark Johnstone saddle Pons Aelius who’s chasing a handicap hat trick following two victories at Wolverhampton although is now 8lb higher here and looks best of the rest. This revolves around the Godolphin duo with preference for Wild Crusade and he’s the bet.

 

WILD CRUSADE 3 points win @ 2/1 Paddy Power

 

Three 2nds but no winners !!  loss of 12 points on day - Saturdays selections are already uploaded. Have a great weekend all.

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black rabbit

black rabbit

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, black rabbit said:

WINNER  AT 7'S       so few beers and a curry {again } i think  /  

been talked into having a bet on storm steps in the 8 00 Leop tonight      1/5 pt win  i got 16/1   probaly  be shoter at off     {  N /R }

Edited by black rabbit
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