Racing Chat - Friday 13th May

[Valiant Thor]

12 out 7 in , 1 winner a few placed
? rubbish

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Crush n run  8.0 10/1 

Josies kid   7.8 10/1 

Meredif    7.5  7/2 

Korker 7.2  7/1 

2x 5pt ew top 2   6x1pt forecasts top 3 

Korker wins ...crush n run ew ....can't fault the ratings they've been thereabouts in most races ...I think a lot of it has been draw bias and the competitiveness of the meeting and of course just sheer luck ..that's just the way it is .....but there's been a lot of 1st 3rd 5th ....2nd 3rd 5th ...etc so payday will come soon for sure ....learnt a lot 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

1st 3rd 6th ....il bandito won typical of the meeting ....yorks Been all close but no cigar 

I got a cross each way double in with Il Bandito, Safran and Korker purely based on your ratings.  It paid £31.86.  My profit on the day is 18.71 points, so many thanks.  I haven't had time to work out my Trixies so I have been following you.  I will have another go tomorrow should you post up.  I achieved good odds on my bets.  The only disappointment is that Bet365 seem to stop me from combining 3 selections for my each way cross doubles, particularly if the selections are at big odds.  Where you put up 4 selections I took a chance on two each from them, so I guess I was lucky in choosing a winning double.

A further thought I am having, where you go 5 points each way on selections, is to place an in-running bet.  Hence, if there are 4 selections I may place an in-running bet of 5 points on each at 4.2 if the odds are say 10.0 or over.  What I would be hoping to do is to get a winner that gets matched at that price.  I would hope that the other three don't get matched.  Even if they did I would break even if one of them won.  Just a thought.  

Edited May 13, 2022 by The Equaliser

[richard-westwood]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I got a cross each way double in with Il Bandito, Safran and Korker purely based on your ratings.  It paid £31.86.  My profit on the day is 18.71 points, so many thanks.  I haven't had time to work out my Trixies so I have been following you.  I will have another go tomorrow should you post up.  I achieved good odds on my bets.  The only disappointment is that Bet365 seem to stop me from combining 3 selections for my each way cross doubles, particularly if the selections are at big odds.  Where you put up 4 selections I took a chance on two each from them, so I guess I was lucky in choosing a winning double.

A further thought I am having, where you go 5 points each way on selections, is to place an in-running bet.  Hence, if there are 4 selections I may place an in-running bet of 5 points on each at 4.2 if the odds are say 10.0 or over.  What I would be hoping to do is to get a winner that gets matched at that price.  I would hope that the other three don't get matched.  Even if they did I would break even if one of them won.  Just a thought.  

Tbh ...rather than be disappointed I'm quite excited .....I'm seeing which races are doing better .....I've also seen if the top 3 or 4 are a fair bit in front of the rest then there's more chance of a forecast so I need to keep an eye out for that when deciding whether to go for forecasts too .....I'm definately going to do tricasts in the big weekend races ...not on all races like 8n the week  but definately when big prices are kicking around because it will get another based on recent results .......

But I'm really starting to enjoy rating now it's almost fully computerised and more consistent ......so I'll just get stuck in and see what happens but it's definately gonna be fun ? 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Tbh ...rather than be disappointed I'm quite excited .....I'm seeing which races are doing better .....I've also seen if the top 3 or 4 are a fair bit in front of the rest then there's more chance of a forecast so I need to keep an eye out for that when deciding whether to go for forecasts too .....I'm definately going to do tricasts in the big weekend races ...not on all races like 8n the week  but definately when big prices are kicking around because it will get another based on recent results .......

But I'm really starting to enjoy rating now it's almost fully computerised and more consistent ......so I'll just get stuck in and see what happens but it's definately gonna be fun ? 

I didn't mean that I was disappointed with your ratings, I meant that when you put up 3 selections, some at big prices the big betting companies stop me from playing the combination bets at odds that are better than the manipulated computer forecast returns.  Where you have two clear top rated selections in two races I will definitely prefer the mixed cross doubles as opposed to the computer forecast in each race.  I will also do some Tricasts for small stakes as I can't do this in the mixed cross race bets. Tricasts are poor value but as you say when the big priced selections come good in the top three, they pay out lots of money for small stakes.

Edited May 13, 2022 by The Equaliser

[richard-westwood]

46 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I didn't mean that I was disappointed with your ratings, I meant that when you put up 3 selections, some at big prices the big betting companies stop me from playing the combination bets at odds that are better than the manipulated computer forecast returns.  Where you have two clear top rated selections in two races I will definitely prefer the mixed cross doubles as opposed to the computer forecast in each race.  I will also do some Tricasts for small stakes as I can't do this in the mixed cross race bets. Tricasts are poor value but as you say when the big priced selections come good in the top three, they pay out lots of money for small stakes.

It may be cross doubles pay better ....I've had a lot of success in the past ...especially eith ew doubles so it's something I'm watching closely 

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

It may be cross doubles pay better ....I've had a lot of success in the past ...especially eith ew doubles so it's something I'm watching closely 

in my opinion and my experience i wouldn't over complicate things i do fc & tc on all my rated races although i generally stick to the top 3. ie 6 x fc  and 6 x tricasts thats on top of the win bet i have on the top rated or the top 2 rated (split stakes if i do top 2 rated) the reason i say dont over complicate is simply the costs which can mount up quite quickly and so can the losses when u have an unlucky run which happens often. example i do £10 win on top rated, i then do 6x 50p forcasts and 6 x 50p tricasts. 16 quid per rated race soon mounts up. if i do have to reduce stakes i never reduce the 50p forcasts just the win bet, down to a fiver and the tricasts, down to 25p costing £9.50 instead of the £16. just an addition here my criteria for doing fc is minimum odds of one of the rated must be 8/1+ and in tc 2 out of the 3 must be double figures otherwise i leave well alone and just do the win bet, again this is purely down to cost/benefit analysis.

[harry_rag]

15 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

The only disappointment is that Bet365 seem to stop me from combining 3 selections for my each way cross doubles, particularly if the selections are at big odds.

How do they “seem to stop you”? Do they just not allow you to put the bet on in one go, so that you could just put the separate doubles on? Takes a bit longer but might still let you get the required coverage?

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

How do they “seem to stop you”? Do they just not allow you to put the bet on in one go, so that you could just put the separate doubles on? Takes a bit longer but might still let you get the required coverage?

What happens is there is a message that says something like "multiple bets are restricted".  This is on Bet365.  Betfair Sportsbook wouldn't even let me combine two selections from two races.  They all seem to be very wary of combination bets, especially at big odds.  I will give it a go-to do them separately but I only have two betting accounts and tbh I don't want to start opening up a number of accounts with my modest betting bank. I rather fear that once I started to arrange the bets one after the other on the Bet365 it would probably block me from doing so with the same message.  It may be worth setting up perhaps one or two more different bookies accounts though.  Do you know which ones I could use which would give me BOG and has competitive prices? I don't know why I don't get BOG with Bet365, I am not exactly bleeding them dry am I? 

 

Edited May 14, 2022 by The Equaliser

[harry_rag]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

It may be worth setting up perhaps one or two more different bookies accounts though.  Do you know which ones I could use which would give me BOG and has competitive prices?

I'll leave it to the racing punters to advise on potential other accounts, I was just wondering if the issue was to do with what the site was capable of rather than what the bookies were willing to accept. When I used to put bets on in bookies I put all sorts of weird perms on (sports rather than racing) and just wrote clear instructions on the slip. It's often not possible to do the same bets online without breaking it down into the constituent doubles and trebles and putting them on one at a time.

[MCLARKE]

All seems very messy, I just stick to win singles, I think long term this is the most profitable option, especially if you don't  want to drain the bank.

I suppose it depends on whether you want the buzz of an occasional big win

[harry_rag]

13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I suppose it depends on whether you want the buzz of an occasional big win

It's a bit more nuanced than that (and I speak as someone who tends to stick to singles these days, for practical reasons).

Sticking to singles will preserve the bank longer if you are a losing punter (as the bookies have the edge and doubles etc. would multiply your disadvantage). If you are making a profit with singles then playing doubles etc. should multiply your edge. I suspect some people would respond to your statement with "I suppose it depends on whether you can be bothered working out the optimum way to stake your selections to get the best return or just prefer to keep it simple with singles".

My anytime goalscorer system is (for the time being, at least) back in profit but it wouldn't be viable to even consider playing doubles because most of the bets are on the exchange and there's rarely two bets at a time with the same bookie. That's my excuse for sticking to singles! 

[Darran]

34 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

What happens is there is a message that says something like "multiple bets are restricted".  This is on Bet365.  Betfair Sportsbook wouldn't even let me combine two selections from two races.  They all seem to be very wary of combination bets, especially at big odds.  I will give it a go-to do them separately but I only have two betting accounts and tbh I don't want to start opening up a number of accounts with my modest betting bank. I rather fear that once I started to arrange the bets one after the other on the Bet365 it would probably block me from doing so with the same message.  It may be worth setting up perhaps one or two more different bookies accounts though.  Do you know which ones I could use which would give me BOG and has competitive prices? I don't know why I don't get BOG with Bet365, I am not exactly bleeding them dry am I? 

 

It doesn't matter how big your betting bank is you should open as many bookies with the main bookies as possible so you can take advantage of the best price on offer. If you had two shops next door to each other and something you wanted to buy was cheaper in one than the other you aren't going to go for the more expensive option. Betting is no different.

[LEE-GRAYS]

40 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

What happens is there is a message that says something like "multiple bets are restricted".  This is on Bet365.  Betfair Sportsbook wouldn't even let me combine two selections from two races.  They all seem to be very wary of combination bets, especially at big odds.  I will give it a go-to do them separately but I only have two betting accounts and tbh I don't want to start opening up a number of accounts with my modest betting bank. I rather fear that once I started to arrange the bets one after the other on the Bet365 it would probably block me from doing so with the same message.  It may be worth setting up perhaps one or two more different bookies accounts though.  Do you know which ones I could use which would give me BOG and has competitive prices? I don't know why I don't get BOG with Bet365, I am not exactly bleeding them dry am I? 

 

I think multiples are restricted if you have more than one horse in a race and doing doubles with over races 

[MCLARKE]

24 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

It's a bit more nuanced than that (and I speak as someone who tends to stick to singles these days, for practical reasons).

I remain to be convinced that multiples or forecasts etc are a better option than singles.

You are unlikely to get the best prices because an individual bookie is unlikely to be offering the best odds on every selection.

Your average stakes will also need to be lower to maintain your bank, therefore your total winnings will be lower.

There must be a reason why bookis like multiple bets.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I remain to be convinced that multiples or forecasts etc are a better option than singles.

You are unlikely to get the best prices because an individual bookie is unlikely to be offering the best odds on every selection.

Your average stakes will also need to be lower to maintain your bank, therefore your total winnings will be lower.

There must be a reason why bookis like multiple bets.

You are correct in my opinion, Singles are always a better option, for me the fc and tc are more like fun bets simply because i think if i speed rate a race and i am correct with my figures i like to do fc and tc when the odds are big because i think to myself why do all that work if your not going to use it. it can get expensive so i stick to 2yo pattern races mainly. i like multiples too (lucky 15 because of the double odds for one winner) but again i agree the bookies love them for a reason and its a long time between drinks. okay when your on form but horrendouse at those times you cant buy a winner which happens to us all.

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

You are correct in my opinion, Singles are always a better option, for me the fc and tc are more like fun bets simply because i think if i speed rate a race and i am correct with my figures i like to do fc and tc when the odds are big because i think to myself why do all that work if your not going to use it. it can get expensive so i stick to 2yo pattern races mainly. i like multiples too (lucky 15 because of the double odds for one winner) but again i agree the bookies love them for a reason and its a long time between drinks. okay when your on form but horrendouse at those times you cant buy a winner which happens to us all.

I do agree that the forecast and tricast bets are "fun" type bets but @richard-westwoodhas shown if you get the ratings right at big odds the payout can be big.  The bookies do seem to be afraid of them too with a lot of restrictions in place.  So, is it easier to find 3 horses in a race to come 1st , 2nd or 3rd than it is to find 3 winners in different races for a Trixie, which is my favourite bet?  I guess if we had a 3 horse race and could do all combinations then there would be certainty about the outcome.  I suspect that Tricasts are never available for such races.  It may be the same for forecasts and doubles bets. It seems to me that if there are a lot of runners in a race then I can't see why it should be easier to find 1st and 2nd or 3rd in the same race as opposed to finding say 3 separate winners for a trixie when the combined number of runners are say 18 (e.g 6 + 6 +6)

[harry_rag]

33 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I can't see why it should be easier to find 1st and 2nd or 3rd in the same race as opposed to finding say 3 separate winners for a trixie when the combined number of runners are say 18 (e.g 6 + 6 +6)

Maths? I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure that if you had 3 races with the same number of runners and they all had an equal chance of winning it would be easier to predict the first 3 home in any one race than the winner in each one. There are 20 “trebles” in 6 selections and 6 permutations for the order each three could finish in making 120 possible outcomes. The odds for finding 3 winners is 6 x 6 x 6 = 216.

I think there would always be more possible combinations of winner from 3 races than tricast in one, which is not to say that either is easy! The winner in each race is a 5/1 shot (as per example above). Once you find the winner in one race there are only 5 horses left for second then 4 for 3rd, hence fewer possible outcomes.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Maths? I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure that if you had 3 races with the same number of runners and they all had an equal chance of winning it would be easier to predict the first 3 home in any one race than the winner in each one. There are 20 “trebles” in 6 selections and 6 permutations for the order each three could finish in making 120 possible outcomes. The odds for finding 3 winners is 6 x 6 x 6 = 216.

I think there would always be more possible combinations of winner from 3 races than tricast in one, which is not to say that either is easy! The winner in each race is a 5/1 shot (as per example above). Once you find the winner in one race there are only 5 horses left for second then 4 for 3rd, hence fewer possible outcomes.

I was doing a comparison with an 18 runner horse race. Following on from your example I tried to find out how many treble combinations there are to cover this number of runners all having an equal chance of winning.  The only chart I can find is one with 15 selections.  This shows 455 trebles.  So for 18 I think that this would be much more

[Valiant Thor]

7 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

So for 18 I think that this would be much more

816 trebles
4896 forecasts

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

816 trebles
4896 forecasts

Woweee!!  Many thanks

[Valiant Thor]

17 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Woweee!! 

simple math

trebles from 18 runners is 18*17*16 (4896 ) then divide by 3*2*1(6) = 816 trebles

If you want the forecast you just don't divide by 6
If using an algebraic equation the 6 divisor and the 6 multiplier would cancel each other out and both equal 1
So the first part of the equation (BOLD) is the answer for any number of runners for forecasts. from the trebles

If you just wanted the forecasts from all 18 runners it would be 18*17 = 306

Edited May 14, 2022 by Valiant Thor

[The Equaliser]

31 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

simple math

trebles from 18 runners is 18*17*16 (4896 ) then divide by 3*2*1(6) = 816 trebles

If you want the forecast you just don't divide by 6
If using an algebraic equation the 6 divisor and the 6 multiplier would cancel each other out and both equal 1
So the first part of the equation (BOLD) is the answer for any number of runners for forecasts. from the trebles

If you just wanted the forecasts from all 18 runners it would be 18*17 = 306

So. am I right in thinking that if I want to get a treble (as I do with a Trixie) and that I have 3 races with 6 runners each with an equal chance of winning then as @harry_ragsays that my chance is one in 216 and hence I am much better off than trying to get a tricast with 18 runners with all horses having an equal chance as there are 816 combinations? And if this is so then all I do is if my Trixie race runners are 8, 9, 10 then the combination is one in 720 all things being equal?

[The Equaliser]

7 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

So. am I right in thinking that if I want to get a treble (as I do with a Trixie) and that I have 3 races with 6 runners each with an equal chance of winning then as @harry_ragsays that my chance is one in 216 and hence I am much better off than trying to get a tricast with 18 runners with all horses having an equal chance as there are 816 combinations? And if this is so then all I do is if my Trixie race runners are 8, 9, 10 then the combination is one in 720 all things being equal?

I think that I have found the answer.  Despite all the combinations @richard-westwoodprobably believes that no matter how many runners there are in a race his top rated four runners stand head and shoulders above all of them.  This being so, if he combines them in a Tricast and covers all outcomes then there is a good chance that they will pass the line in an order that gives him a winning return.  On the other hand, when I am looking for my Trixie bets I try to find races where there are between 4/5 runners at odds of 9/1 or less.  It is difficult to find races with less than that as the favourite is often at very cramped odds.  I liked to achieve odds of at least 2/1 for my bets.  Richard is looking at the outcome of one event.  I am looking to get a treble from three events.  I'm not sure of the maths on it but looking simplistically my winning attempts may be 4 x 4 x 4 (if there are 4 runners under 9/1) which means that I may have to wait 64 times to get a treble up as opposed to his combination of four.  

Edited May 15, 2022 by The Equaliser

[richard-westwood]

13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I think that I have found the answer.  Despite all the combinations @richard-westwoodprobably believes that no matter how many runners there are in a race his top rated four runners stand head and shoulders above all of them.  This being so, if he combines them in a Tricast and covers all outcomes then there is a good chance that they will pass the line in an order that gives him a winning return.  On the other hand, when I am looking for my Trixie bets I try to find races where there are between 4/5 runners at odds of 9/1 or less.  It is difficult to find races with less than that as the favourite is often at very cramped odds.  I liked to achieve odds of at least 2/1 for my bets.  Richard is looking at the outcome of one event.  I am looking to get a treble from three events.  I'm not sure of the maths on it but looking simplistically my winning attempts may be 4 x 4 x 4 (if there are 4 runners under 9/1) which means that I may have to wait 64 times to get a treble up as opposed to his combination of four.  

Yes that's generally the mindset lol .....but i seem to do well in doubles on top 2 like yesterday too .....especially ew ...but its a risk level thing ....fortune favours the brave I suppose ?

[Valiant Thor]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

So. am I right in thinking that if I want to get a treble (as I do with a Trixie) and that I have 3 races with 6 runners each with an equal chance of winning then as @harry_ragsays that my chance is one in 216 and hence I am much better off than trying to get a tricast with 18 runners with all horses having an equal chance as there are 816 combinations? And if this is so then all I do is if my Trixie race runners are 8, 9, 10 then the combination is one in 720 all things being equal?

No there are 816 trebles
4896 tricasts

trixie from 3 races 6^3 (6*6*6) =216

Trebles from 18 =18*17*16 / 3*2*1 = 816

Tricast with 18 runners =18*17*16 =4896 rev forecasts

If you take all combinations of 8*9*10 then yes 720 is correct but to make a trixie profitable you have to take the square root 0f 720*4
so if you combined all the runners in trixies you would have to have min odds of over 52/1 per horse to make a profit. if 2 won.
Some may agree some not , but successful betting is more about getting the numbers right than just picking a horse you fancy.

If you have 18 runners but are just taking the top 5 rated as per @richard-westwood then that would equate to
RF doubles 20 (5*4)
RF trebles 60 (5*4*3)

ATB
VT

Edited May 15, 2022 by Valiant Thor
correct horse price calculations

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Yes that's generally the mindset lol .....but i seem to do well in doubles on top 2 like yesterday too .....especially ew ...but its a risk level thing ....fortune favours the brave I suppose ?

Yes, I agree.  I think that the way ahead for me is to do these in cross doubles so as to secure the better odds.  And, of course we must not forget that your bread and butter money lies with the singles win and each way bets.

[The Equaliser]

55 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

No there are 816 trebles
4896 tricasts

trixie from 3 races 6^3 (6*6*6) =216

Trebles from 18 =18*17*16 / 3*2*1 = 816

Tricast with 18 runners =18*17*16 =4896

Please accept my apology if you despair at my lack of maths knowledge but I still can't see the difference between the figure of "Forecasts" and "Tricasts " of 4896 and 816 trebles.   Is it because the trebles do not take account of all combinations of the first three across the line whilst the Tricast does?  

[Valiant Thor]

34 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Is it because the trebles do not take account of all combinations of the first three across the line whilst the Tricast does?  

Its the difference between Combinations & Permutations

A treble is a COMBINATION  where order is irrelevant  (pick 3 horses A , B , C in 3 races ) as long as they all win it doesn't matter in what order they win
A Tricast is a PERMUTATION where order is relevant as they are in the same race so if you pick A to bt B to bt C result = B , A , C will be a loser , hence you do them in reverse tricasts of ABC ACB BCA BAC CAB CBA  in order to get a winner if they all come in the first 3 regardless of position.

If you picked 18 horses from 18 races and put them in trebles it would be 816 trebles ( order irrelevant )
If you picked 18 horses from 1 race and put them in Tricasts it would be 4896  tricasts ( order relevant )

Edited May 15, 2022 by Valiant Thor
changed form forecasts to tricasts

[The Equaliser]

13 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Its the difference between Combinations & Permutations

A treble is a COMBINATION  where order is irrelevant  (pick 3 horses A , B , C in 3 races ) as long as they all win it doesn't matter in what order they win
A Tricast is a PERMUTATION where order is relevant as they are in the same race so if you pick A to bt B to bt C result = B , A , C will be a loser , hence you do them in reverse forecasts of ABC ACB BCA BAC CAB CBA  in order to get a winner if they all come in the first 3 regardless of position.

Many thanks; I understand now