Announcements
*** New Last Man Standing Competition - Win up to £1500 Annually - See Competitions Forum ***

Valiant Thor

New Members
  • Content Count

    3188
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

Valiant Thor last won the day on September 23 2019

Valiant Thor had the most liked content!

9 Followers

About Valiant Thor

  • Rank
    Alien in the Whitehouse
  • Birthday 11/19/1960

Recent Profile Visitors

6144 profile views
  1. Wolves v Liverpool 1-2 Another one sneaks in @ 9.00
  2. No I only go for the jugular , If I go fishing I go to the pond where the big fish swim, I'm not interested where the minnows are Im a pareto principle type backer I concentrate on trying to find my edge within the 20% that win around 80% of the time (not literally those exact %ages) and discard the 80% that that make up the other 20% So basically Im not interested in the crap on the RH side of the red line as on average hitting those individual scorelines is few and far between in comparison to the LH side of the red line, Trying to optimise a model for the few is irrelevant IMO, I leave chasing tails to dogs as they're better at it. If I had a model that predicted the LH side of the graph scores with some degree of accuracy backtested over say 4 or 5 seasons I might be tempted to delve a little deeper,we shall see. If I cant see it being profitable for me I try to avoid it, hence not liking correct scores, But there's nothing wrong with having a play with the numbers and if it selects 10 possible 1-1 draws every 40 games and 6 win @ average odds of around 6.5 ish then I might be changing my mind very quickly Good luck with your quest
  3. @Data both sneaked the 2-1 with spurs @ 8.00
  4. Hi Data Not a lover of correct score prediction mainly due to the abysmal overound placed on them, but I do like a bit of stats analysis . I know you are only doing the prem atm but I like to look at the overall picture. These Stats are from 137000+ games Table 1 As you can see 71.9% of CS fall within the green zone with 1-1 being the optimum score @ 12.54 % and 1-0 the NB @ 10.92 , when joined with the yellow zone the sr %age goes to 89.63% with the other scores making up the 10.37% remaining outliers.So I personally would focus on the SR that my model throws up @ 1-0 & 1-1 I dont know how your adjustable variable is incorporated into Solver but a simple setup using solver to reduce SSE by changing the ratings,calculating the mean and constraining H & A average rating to =1 rather than 0 (you cant have negative goals) seems to do the job easy enough. Ran the solver from Jan onwards same as you, which produced Table 2 The 1-1 draw seems to be just higher than ave with table 1 (small sample though) 6 drawing 1-1 from 40 games = 15% , when expected 1-1 draws from sample size should be around 5. Although 10 draws were predicted. We both agree on two 1-1 scorelines tonight so you never know Best of luck ,hope it works out for you
  5. Chiefs v 49ers make the superbowl