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Valiant Thor

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Valiant Thor last won the day on May 30

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About Valiant Thor

  • Birthday 11/19/1960

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  1. Lennys spirit 5th @ 16/1 Peachy Carneham 4th Close but no cigar
  2. Couple I think are overpriced today @ sky bet both 4 places £10 ew Double
  3. Had it priced up last night as a 5/1 shot and backed it at @ 10/1 win or lose a nice bit of value ( now 9/2 2nd fav so I wasn't too far out ) dont need many to come in like that to make a profit
  4. its a Yankee 6 doubles 4 trebles 1 Fourfold Minimum double required for a return so average target odds must = 5/2 or greater for a profit
  5. So basically a random selection (Darwin eat your heart out) Then I'd be surprised if you make a profit Ps If its any consolation I dont think Darwins ideas stand up to much either 😉 ATB VT
  6. Of course it does if your maths are better than the crowds From what I can see your looking @ forecast odds on selections and then trying to find the value rather than pricing up the days races & finding your odds on shots (if any) then looking for any value opportunities in the markets.
  7. I dont see what the problem with backing odds on or longshots +ev is the same whatever you decide Say X =1000 over time You bet X amount on odds on @ expected odds and end up 1040 your 4%+ev You Bet X amount on 10/1 shots @ expected odds and end up 1040 your 4% +ev Spend more time accurately pricing up a race rather than trying to let the forecast do it for you as all the forecast is is WOM - bookies vig
  8. you asked what was the difference between 10/11 and 1/1 which I took to be the edge between the 2 on book prices would be .052 % But you swap between book then betfair so you'd most probable get 11/10ish on BF so around 10% I find it more informative if you start with the full question rather than adding on bits as you go. To answer the Q You should back both if you have any sense as they are +EV
  9. HORSE PRIZE LAST 3 RACES PRIZE MONEY SYSTEM 25.7K > 15K 11K 8K YAASER 25.7K > 4K 3K 4K ZABBIE 13.3K > 4K 4K 5K JUAN LES PINS 25.7K > 8K 3K 5K MATTICE 27K > 8K 6K 8K SCAMPI 25.7K > 4K 10K 6K PLEDGE OF HONOUR 27K > 4K 3K 4K I have no idea 🙄 🙄🙄 SIGH
  10. Royal Parade (75% / 17% -1) * 100 = 342% The reason why its 351% in the above post is due to not rounding in excel ODDS INVERSE 1.33 0.751879699 6.00 0.166666667
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