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Valiant Thor

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Valiant Thor last won the day on February 17

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About Valiant Thor

  • Birthday 11/19/1960

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  1. 1 pt loss on the day from 14 bets , with a 21% sr, A few close calls especially Dors Toyboy but if only's don't make a profit ☹️ If the correct odds for Geiwont would have been posted instead of taking sp , we'd be looking @ at 3 pts profit but hey ho
  2. I use the same as everyone else does ,horse, jockey,trainer , runners , course etc etc . a bot just reads the output data for the race & puts the bet on without me having to do anything its the algorithm that sorts the data from the database that does the work. What Im trying to do atm is build an algorithm to price up Hcp races and select a horse that fits the bill within a reasonable tolerence +/-, but its hard due to the nature of Hcp races thats why Ive stayed away from them. but im bored so thought Id have another crack at it , keeps me busy. The problem is in handicaps most are inconsistent lower grade garbage , where some are 'not really trying' to get the hcp mark down, ,most runners are usually ridden by lower class jocks, apprentices or Luke Morris 🙄 etc. They aim them for gambles rather than racing to form due to crap prize money, Where as top grade races (nonHcp) are running for prestige not to make a few quid .
  3. 2.20 @ Wolv Giewont Backed all day down to 3/1 (10/1 @ 8.04 this morning when put up That will do me Just discovered a problem with the concatenated data with this race , ignore the above ( Im a self taught programmer so sh*t happens sometimes,well a lot of the time actually ) Seems the odds/runners have got reversed on this runner EP was 8 and runners was 10 so something got mixed up in the sorting somewhere along the lines ☹️ Will have to have a look at that after racing ' Will count Giewont @ sp 3/1 for this race . Geiwonts ep odds at closing 18/05/2022 was 8.00 up till 9.00 where it started to get backed
  4. Todays selections looks like about 3 or 4 needed for a profit/break even~ All prices/runners correct @ time of collected data (Timestamped)
  5. Better than expected for starters 3 from 9 33% sr 3.5pts profit from 9pts staked 38.8% yield from B365 odds available @ time of posting.
  6. I wouldn't pay too much attention from the Ex_Odds as there algorithm is derived from Nhcp racing , I expect the 🤞odds to get better as it learns . The ex_odds which are fairly close to the B365 odds (@ time of posting) are the ones I'd be looking @ at the moment.
  7. As stated several times on this board I am not a lover of Jumps racing or Hcp's. (flat or Jumps) But as most (70% ish) of racing are Hcps that's a lot of untapped water under the bridge as they say. I have my Auto Bets bot thats been running my algorithm on BF now full time since 2016 , It updates the data every evening, it does its stuff and backs accordingly in non Hcp races without any of the should I / shouldn't I back it from myself, which is why I built it in the first place to eradicate the human element. To cut a long story short I am going to try and replicate my Auto Bet bot for Hcps So heres Version 1 🤞 Lets see how it goes
  8. Create your own database , then your only limited by your own imagination
  9. When 'Marmite' Matt Chapman spoke to Haggas after the race and asked him will we see Baaeed next season Haggas said "If he runs a couple of more races like that 'No'" Which I took to mean he'll be retired to stud after his next 2 races if he runs similar to how he just did.
  10. Its the difference between Combinations & Permutations A treble is a COMBINATION where order is irrelevant (pick 3 horses A , B , C in 3 races ) as long as they all win it doesn't matter in what order they win A Tricast is a PERMUTATION where order is relevant as they are in the same race so if you pick A to bt B to bt C result = B , A , C will be a loser , hence you do them in reverse tricasts of ABC ACB BCA BAC CAB CBA in order to get a winner if they all come in the first 3 regardless of position. If you picked 18 horses from 18 races and put them in trebles it would be 816 trebles ( order irrelevant ) If you picked 18 horses from 1 race and put them in Tricasts it would be 4896 tricasts ( order relevant )
  11. No there are 816 trebles 4896 tricasts trixie from 3 races 6^3 (6*6*6) =216 Trebles from 18 =18*17*16 / 3*2*1 = 816 Tricast with 18 runners =18*17*16 =4896 rev forecasts If you take all combinations of 8*9*10 then yes 720 is correct but to make a trixie profitable you have to take the square root 0f 720*4 so if you combined all the runners in trixies you would have to have min odds of over 52/1 per horse to make a profit. if 2 won. Some may agree some not , but successful betting is more about getting the numbers right than just picking a horse you fancy. If you have 18 runners but are just taking the top 5 rated as per @richard-westwood then that would equate to RF doubles 20 (5*4) RF trebles 60 (5*4*3) ATB VT
  12. simple math trebles from 18 runners is 18*17*16 (4896 ) then divide by 3*2*1(6) = 816 trebles If you want the forecast you just don't divide by 6 If using an algebraic equation the 6 divisor and the 6 multiplier would cancel each other out and both equal 1 So the first part of the equation (BOLD) is the answer for any number of runners for forecasts. from the trebles If you just wanted the forecasts from all 18 runners it would be 18*17 = 306
  13. 12 out 7 in , 1 winner a few placed 🙄 rubbish
  14. My ratings for York today 'Expected Value' bets in yellow win only regardless of odds
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