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Valiant Thor

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Valiant Thor last won the day on April 28

Valiant Thor had the most liked content!


About Valiant Thor

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    Alien in the Whitehouse
  • Birthday 11/19/1960

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  1. Certainly getting your moneys worth with this fella,seems to be running every other week
  2. 5.50 Strat DEMON D'AUNAU @ 11/4 B365 RES 5.40 Bath LISMORE @ 11/10 B365
  3. Its all about using the correct statistics which most don't If the race is a 3yo+ 0-60hc you use all available stats from that type of race as all horses then should have a similar makeup otherwise they shouldn't be in that type of race, I personally then try to break my selections down to a coinflip 50/50 chance so say the past stats, eg... say 1st & 2nd favs win 50% between them against the field Ive already reduced the field to 2 by doing nothing with the knowledge backing all selections these stats bring up Im at least going to win 50% of the time, if I can dutch the 2 for over evens the pair then its a no brainer back the 2, If not price match those 2 against each other to see if there's a bet or not. Luckily for me I have a machine learning program linked to Access that sorts out the best bets for the day then all thats needed is the books prices to see if any are worth backing. In the database I have 149K flat races Which is over 1.5 million horses raced against each other
  4. Just a 1 question if you were following a tipster which would you say is more statistically significant tipster 1 £100 profit from 1 race tipster 2 £100 profit from 500 races. @BillyHills once asked me why I disliked 10yr trends, its because in effect they are not 10yr trends but 10 race trends and therefore just chaotic events akin to your 6.40 @ Kempton But whenever a large group of chaotic events come together and are placed in order of their regularity, they are then no longer chaotic but become the norm, without this planes wouldn't fly, engines wouldn't work, life wouldn't exist (unless you believe in some monotheistic deity that is )
  5. I see my penchant for picking NR's strikes again (better than coming the usual 2nd I suppose ) RES~1 5.20 Sligo LOUDEST WHISPER @ 11/4 Coral As this is a race reserve horse and has no designated jockey atm I better put another res in for my res RES~2 5.50 Sligo ROYAL AIDE @ 5/2 B365
  6. As the majority of races fall into10-11-12 runner races Most rating or ranking systems given enough data the combined average success rate will fall within the ballpark figure %ages below using this formula LOG10(1+1/d).....d = rank position RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 %age 30% 18% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% this goes for RP ratings ~ forecast odds ~ fav win rates ~ Top rated in handicaps ~ etc etc saves a lot of back checking only to come to a similar statistical conclusion. Note for the usual pedants .... Ballpark means within a reaonable margin of error so dont be posting I got rank 1 as 31.5 % where you state 30%...
  7. 4.30 Ham OCEAN STAR @ EVS Skybet Res 1.30 Newm BAARRIJ @ 5/4 B365