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Valiant Thor

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Everything posted by Valiant Thor

  1. I dont remember you making a profit on anything but Hey Ho
  2. So they alter the starting prices do they to suit there statistics justified
  3. All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)
  4. The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment, People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms). People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game.
  5. Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO AUG +62.14 SEPT +94.13 20pts...MEWS HOUSE
  6. The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978 Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5% From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market. Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue.
  7. 4.12...GUBBAS...........LOST...7th 8.70...KOY KOY...........WON...20.62 7.18...THREE DONS...LOST...2nd STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss 🙄) AUG +62.14 SEPT +94.13
  8. AUG +62.14 SEPT +93.51 B365 4.12...GUBBAS 8.70...KOY KOY 7.18...THREE DONS One required for break even / small profit
  9. 12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY...LOST...2nd 7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL......WON...26.92 STAKED...20...RETURNED...26.92...PROFIT...6.92 AUG +62.14 SEPT +93.51
  10. Only 2 to chose from today and unfortunately both in same race. Some don't like backing 2 in a race but I look at it as purely a math algorithm and a 34.6% roi IF SUCCESSFUL seems fine by me. B365 prices correct @ time of posting 12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY 7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL
  11. WIN ONLY 5.75pts...LOST...2nd PLACE ONLY 14.25...WON...21.37 STAKED...20...RETURNED...21.37...PROFIT...1.37 AUG +62.14 SEPT +86.59
  12. AUG +62.14 SEPT +85.22 B365 WIN ONLY 5.75pts PLACE ONLY 14.25 place needed for small profit NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over. I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).
  13. 10pts...FAUVETTE...WON...30 10pts...ZIGGY..........LOST....2nd STAKED...20...RETURNED...30...PROFIT...10 AUG +62.14 SEPT +85.22
  14. The two +10% EV I had for today are now both NR's so brought in a couple of reserves with a lower +expected value ( I dont normally back them unless I've estimated them to be in my goldilocks zone of +10% > +25% ev ) but these are still IMO just over +5% ev mark, so see how they go. AUG +62.14 SEPT +75.22 10pts...FAUVETTE 10pts...ZIGGY
  15. HELLAVAPACE...7.77pts.....LOST....3rd ASTAROTH.........12.23pts...WON...29.11 STAKED...20...RETURNED...29.11..PROFIT...9.11 AUG +62.14 SEPT +75.22
  16. AUG +62.14 SEPT +66.11 HELLAVAPACE...7.77pts ASTAROTH..........12.23pts
  17. LADY ROCKSTAR...11.34pts...LOST...2nd ATTYS EDGE.............8.66pts...WON...25.98...(3.00 BOG) STAKED...20...RETURNED...25.98...PROFIT...5.98 AUG +62.14 SEPT +66.11
  18. AUG +62.14 SEPT +60.13 LADY ROCKSTAR...11.34pts ATTYS EDGE.............8.66pts 20pts staked
  19. Run a monte carlo simulation in excel, You could do an estimated 10000 random sims for a year over a random 10 year span (100000 trials) on a decent computer in about 10~20 mins
  20. AUG +62.14 SEPT +80.13 LOVE 12.15pts WINTER POWER @ 7.85 20pts staked 1 winner for profit
  21. HURRICANE LANE @ Evens...WON...40pts STAKED...20pts...RETURNED...40pts...PROFIT...20pts AUG +62.14 SEPT +80.13
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