Jump to content
Announcements
** December Poker League Result : 1st Elliott Sutcliffe, 2nd McG, 3rd juanmoment **
** December Naps Competition Result: 1st mick33, 2nd Sugardaddyken, 3rd kenisbusy, 4th Johnrobertson. KO Cup Winner: Kingdom for, Most Winners: Johnrobertson **

Valiant Thor

Regular Members
  • Posts

    3877
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    12

Everything posted by Valiant Thor

  1. Im an engineer , unless things are correct and in order we as a species are not cheerful
  2. Just a point to educate you (difficult task I know but to quote Alexander Pope "Hope springs eternal") £20 challenge =back to 20pts or Lay to 20pts Laying is the inverse of backing, therefore when laying ( backers stake = Liability/(lay odds -1) Therefore when you lay to 20pts you do not back @ the lay price which is what you are doing 🙄 You lay to a liability of 20pts Lay to 20pts liability 2.10 Plum Galata Bridge...20/(1.38-1)=52.63 (backers stake) 3.00 Bev Brando ....20/(1.7-1) =28.57 (backers stake) Results should read 2.10 Plum Galata Bridge.....WON....-20pts 3.00 Bev Brando ....LOST....+28.57 (multiplied by 1-comm rate) Total Profit C/fwd +8.57 I find its always better to do things correctly . As for catching me up , this will be my last post in this thread until you do and going off your past performances it will be my POST ULTIMUM as they say.
  3. I dont remember you making a profit on anything but Hey Ho
  4. So they alter the starting prices do they to suit there statistics justified
  5. All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)
  6. The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment, People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms). People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game.
  7. Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO AUG +62.14 SEPT +94.13 20pts...MEWS HOUSE
  8. The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978 Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5% From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market. Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue.
  9. 4.12...GUBBAS...........LOST...7th 8.70...KOY KOY...........WON...20.62 7.18...THREE DONS...LOST...2nd STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss 🙄) AUG +62.14 SEPT +94.13
  10. AUG +62.14 SEPT +93.51 B365 4.12...GUBBAS 8.70...KOY KOY 7.18...THREE DONS One required for break even / small profit
  11. 12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY...LOST...2nd 7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL......WON...26.92 STAKED...20...RETURNED...26.92...PROFIT...6.92 AUG +62.14 SEPT +93.51
  12. Only 2 to chose from today and unfortunately both in same race. Some don't like backing 2 in a race but I look at it as purely a math algorithm and a 34.6% roi IF SUCCESSFUL seems fine by me. B365 prices correct @ time of posting 12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY 7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL
  13. WIN ONLY 5.75pts...LOST...2nd PLACE ONLY 14.25...WON...21.37 STAKED...20...RETURNED...21.37...PROFIT...1.37 AUG +62.14 SEPT +86.59
  14. AUG +62.14 SEPT +85.22 B365 WIN ONLY 5.75pts PLACE ONLY 14.25 place needed for small profit NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over. I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).
  15. 10pts...FAUVETTE...WON...30 10pts...ZIGGY..........LOST....2nd STAKED...20...RETURNED...30...PROFIT...10 AUG +62.14 SEPT +85.22
  16. The two +10% EV I had for today are now both NR's so brought in a couple of reserves with a lower +expected value ( I dont normally back them unless I've estimated them to be in my goldilocks zone of +10% > +25% ev ) but these are still IMO just over +5% ev mark, so see how they go. AUG +62.14 SEPT +75.22 10pts...FAUVETTE 10pts...ZIGGY
  17. HELLAVAPACE...7.77pts.....LOST....3rd ASTAROTH.........12.23pts...WON...29.11 STAKED...20...RETURNED...29.11..PROFIT...9.11 AUG +62.14 SEPT +75.22
  18. AUG +62.14 SEPT +66.11 HELLAVAPACE...7.77pts ASTAROTH..........12.23pts
  19. LADY ROCKSTAR...11.34pts...LOST...2nd ATTYS EDGE.............8.66pts...WON...25.98...(3.00 BOG) STAKED...20...RETURNED...25.98...PROFIT...5.98 AUG +62.14 SEPT +66.11
  20. AUG +62.14 SEPT +60.13 LADY ROCKSTAR...11.34pts ATTYS EDGE.............8.66pts 20pts staked
×
×
  • Create New...