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Valiant Thor

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Everything posted by Valiant Thor

  1. Material World...... ran in 2008 World Hurdle @ Chelt
  2. More like 30yrs ago BELPER trained by John Dunlop
  3. just stores all your data , has data analysis built in can do graphs etc etc
  4. I don't know what's in the updated version , but the version I had recommended Lotus 1-2-3 for the spreadsheets
  5. All horses have some chance of winning however slight it may be,by omitting some horses you would create a false market The no hoper could be the faller that brings the fav down. In a word ...NO
  6. I think your confusing basic maths with basic stats totally different
  7. I wouldnt worry about it too much if I were you, I know people who cant even price up a £5 note, never mind a horse-race despite 20+ years of trying. I had it priced @ 9/4 and even using a cheap and nasty method using RPR's (below) it was a 5/2 shot, so I thought you were a bit OTT looking for 4/1 but practice makes perfect. 👍 (anyone with basic stats should be able to work the above out and how I came about it) If you want to do what you say you want to do dont get disheartened if things dont work out straight away, & dont do what 99% do and take the easy way out an
  8. WEEK 11 Think Ive found the problem, The date and time for the games downloaded from 1 site were causing an error when looking for the odds on another site due to time/date of game being changed or in a different format. (times and dates for the games have been published in advance and any changes are beyond my control) Anyway see how it goes . **Weeks 9 & 10 will be missing from the Season to Date results as no selections were made due to no spreads being recorded.** Just the NAP bet this week
  9. Its down to what weighting the cd winner has or has not got over non cd winners Lets look at some imaginary data from 295 10 horse races (2950 runners no dead heats so 295 winners) From the 2950 runners we have 550 previous cd winners of which go on to win 65 of these races (11.8% sr) That leaves 2400 non previous cd winners that win 230 of these races (9.6%) So to find a weighting for a previous cd winner you divide the races cd winners 65 by races total winners 295 =.22% then divide total previous cd winner runners 550 by the total runners 2950 = 19% Finally divide cd winn
  10. 19/20 aged 6 to 9 ..............80% of the field fell into that category so a blind man in a dark room could have seen that Pref below 11st 2lb...............So were 50% of the field 16/20 .....a previous winner at over 2m4f plus.......As It was a valuable 2m5f race , I would at the very least expect the horse to be competitive at that distance or why else would they be entered , for the fun of it ? 8/20 won at chelt previously......from 1079 pre race CD winners in the last 12 month 1743 won (13%) so sort of blows the 8/20 (40%) out of the water , when taking large data into the equa
  11. I dont think its harsh, The average horserace has around 9 runners (11%) A:4 wins from 10 runs = 40% B:72 wins from 400 runs = 18% A is trend data , B is race data from 400 similar 9 runner races ....which is a more accurate representation of a similar type race A or B? B is 10 times LESS likely to occur at RANDOM than A. Therefore is a more accurate representation of a likely outcome. Punters can do what they want as far as Im concerned its not my money, but if punters want to improve do your homework and dont fall for the crap . If they want trends just listen to the Blonde b
  12. yep , slipped and pecked @ first fence in home straight , good sit by jock and good recovery by Coole Cody, personally thought that was game over but obviously not
  13. I dont do trends road to the poor house, Trends OR 139>148............... Coole Cody 137 Age 7yo .......................Coole Cody 9 Or do these not count because they dont fit Ill say it a million times trends are for fools as you are focusing on a very small group with little or no statistical significance.
  14. Not neglecting this thread. A couple of weeks ago I changed the code to only get the spreads from uk books (see week 5), I also decided to upgrade the code from python 2 to 3 whilst I was at it and seem to have messed up somewhere along the line (not a pro coder, Im self taught) Been on it on and off for past 2 week and think I should have selections back up and running next week Rule to self if its not broke dont mess with it
  15. No bet due to my top rated being an odds on fav making it a virtual 2 place race as only 3 places being paid
  16. staked 41.68 Returned 59.05 profit 17.37 (41.67%)
  17. Nothing ventured as they say , Ill use profit from last race 41.68pts staked for 41.68% profit if 1 wins Protectorate 24.81pts @ 2.38 Sky Southfield Stone 16.87pts @ 3.5 Sky
  18. 100 pts staked 141.68 returned 41.68 profit
  19. Still @ start when posting All dutched ew 1 placed money back if 1 places
  20. I came to a similar conclusion but using paired comparisons linear algebra (remember simultaneous equations at school) rather than collinearity from 7 races which I'm not a lover of to say the least. If you can find it out there in the ether somewhere, read the 37 Circles of Hell this will change your mind about the way you look at trend analysis.
  21. @ 9/2 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money
  22. Dont think I'll be playing in this race , there's only about 5 horses from the 16 that shouldn't win it whatever happens,( but its racing so you never know )
  23. Staked 100pts Returned 157.36pts (11.24pts @ 10/1 as some odds had changed between posting and placing bets)
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