Tennis Tips - May 6 - May 12

[Bettingboots]

Agree with you on Ferrer, I see some clear value here. I backed him to beat RBA in the last round (had a feeling his good friend would be a little accommodating shall we say, for David's swan song here), although it was a little worrying to see him cramp up in the final set. Zverev hasn't played well for quite a while, and Ferrer has beaten him a few times before, so I expect at least a run for my money.

[CzechPunter]

What a week . I think that I'm just going to wish you all good luck and come back for the next set of tournaments. An up and down season so far, currently a positive zero.

[i1_principe]

Djere to beat Cilic at 2.38 with Unibet

Cilic won 2 close wins against Klizan and Struff, but his overall shape during the year is not impressive. Jere is making tremendous progress - winning the title in Rio and playing semifinal in São Paulo and Budapest. The Serbian is in better shape and preferred surface give a good chance to win this game.

[Gully_22]

Joseph Kovalik to beat Stefano Napolitano 1.72 with bet365

Sorry bit of a late one but ive only just got a chance to check the matches for tomorrow.

I feel its only a matter of time before Kovalik starts to string some wins together after coming back from injury as he a soild clay courter with some great wins last year. Napolitano, on the only hand, isn't particularly great on clay although he has been in good form recently, his wins have come on hard courts.

The odds are only close because of the contrast of form rather than ability.

[aphro]

Value radar:

Nishikori to beat Wawrinka at 2.2 with Pinnacle.

Initial odds for Nishikori were 1.85 and bookies do not expect big difference in scores (spread = 1 point with 2.00 odd), so actually i suppose that Nishikori is favorite or equal here.

[aphro]

And also  Djere L. to beat Cilic M. at 2.36 with Pinnacle.

Value radar.

[aphro]

4 minutes ago, eros said:

Yeah, seems only the radar can get us out of shit at the moment.

I took Djere too, also odds on Fognini seems to be clear value to me.

Yes, Fognini is also in my sight, but i've decided not to take odds higher than 2.5

[aphro]

3 minutes ago, eros said:

Here we have the 2 best players on clay in 2019. For sure Dominic can win, but against Opelka this was nothing and Fognini in this great form will be hard to beat, If he can keep this up, he'll march into the quarters I think. So come on, odds over 3 are more than juicy.

Sound good, i like when my value radar's signals coincide with someones opinion, i'll take him (moreover he is available with 5Dimes at 3.35)

The reason why i'm not taking higher odds is that within limitations it shows consistent profit, but if i take higher odds - it has significant drawdowns.

[Lorenzi Musetti]

1 hour ago, eros said:

For sure Dominic can win, but against Opelka this was nothing

Did you see the match???

[four-leaf]

Stan and Hubert Hurkacz in three I think, they both got the game for this surface in Madrid. Tsitsipas and Thiem in two. Rafa and Nole in two, Fed in three.

Rudolf Molleker to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.75 with Unibet

Pablo should be sent packing here for the Rome qualifiers. With a little bit better mentality from Steven Diez it would be Steven playing Rudolf. Pablo with a hole tournament in Estoril with qualies inclusive it's gonna be hard for him to win this match.

[CzechPunter]

I was just looking at some stuff today and I have to say, the Tennis Integrity Unit has had absolutely no effect on all the shady dealings on the lower circuits. It's just so embarrassing with players doing some stuff right in the face of everyone and no action taken. You don't need direct evidence and the mobile phones of the players to realize what's going on, if you've got players retiring on set points and/or near match points it's just blatant. 

[Bettingboots]

What happened exactly CP ?  Which match ?

[CzechPunter]

It's not about a specific match and I'm not going to accuse anyone publicly, it's just that I was hoping that the number of strange retirements is going to go down after TIU banned a few unknown players. Hasn't happened though and, to this day, Kicker is - as far as I know - the only really well-known player that has been punished recently.

[lelit]

Sorry, I will disrupt the order, but can someone explain increasing odds on Bencic, now over 4 against Halep?

[CzechPunter]

Right, that certainly does look strange. Perhaps an injury rumor or something, otherwise it doesn't make sense to have Bencic at such a price.

[Smiles Tennis]

Kiki Bertens to bt Petra Kvitova @2.28 with Betfair. 

Bertens over-performs when an average of these odds, going 18-15 including winning 5 of the last 6 (although this does include a WO against Muguruza).

At these odds, Bertens hasn't lost in straight sets since losing to Coco in IW over three years ago. 

Similarly, Kvitova underperforms at her odds, going 14-14. She's also lost three of her last four when around these odds, losing to Barty, Osaka and Svitolina. 

My other system has Bertens to back in play but I might stop doing in play and taking pre-match bets as they missed four winners today because they didn't drift enough. Bertens to take this. 

[kuklachert]

Sorry in advance for eventual offtopic, apparently I'm not able to send private messages due to not having posted on public forums yet.

I'm a lurker here and currently testing statistical models similar to the "value radar", but they're not yet good enough for me to allow myself posting reliable picks. I'd like to exchange a couple of ideas about model-based predictions with those of you who use these methods to pick bets. So I'd like to make myself visible in this post to encourage aphro and other model-supported gamblers (Tennis Picks too?) to start an idea exchange via PM or possibly a separate forum topic with more technical stuff that wouldn't be as interesting to those of you that base their predictions on watching tennis rather than statistical modeling.

Hope I get a bit of feedback here.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, lelit said:

Sorry, I will disrupt the order, but can someone explain increasing odds on Bencic, now over 4 against Halep?

Halep is on a rampage, probably that's why.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, Tennis Picks said:

Kiki Bertens to bt Petra Kvitova @2.28 with Betfair. 

Bertens over-performs when an average of these odds, going 18-15 including winning 5 of the last 6 (although this does include a WO against Muguruza).

At these odds, Bertens hasn't lost in straight sets since losing to Coco in IW over three years ago. 

Similarly, Kvitova underperforms at her odds, going 14-14. She's also lost three of her last four when around these odds, losing to Barty, Osaka and Svitolina. 

My other system has Bertens to back in play but I might stop doing in play and taking pre-match bets as they missed four winners today because they didn't drift enough. Bertens to take this. 

Thanks for posting, I've gone for +3.5 games Kiki Bertens at 1.60 with Betfair and this reasoning from you makes me feel better about it.

[CzechPunter]

Well, you are approved now @kuklachert .

[Smiles Tennis]

1 hour ago, kuklachert said:

Sorry in advance for eventual offtopic, apparently I'm not able to send private messages due to not having posted on public forums yet.

I'm a lurker here and currently testing statistical models similar to the "value radar", but they're not yet good enough for me to allow myself posting reliable picks. I'd like to exchange a couple of ideas about model-based predictions with those of you who use these methods to pick bets. So I'd like to make myself visible in this post to encourage aphro and other model-supported gamblers (Tennis Picks too?) to start an idea exchange via PM or possibly a separate forum topic with more technical stuff that wouldn't be as interesting to those of you that base their predictions on watching tennis rather than statistical modeling.

Hope I get a bit of feedback here.

Sounds interesting but I have very little time. I run a business and have a young baby on top of trying to do these tennis picks already. I would say start a thread, others might have some input then and I will read and contribute when I can. 

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, starting a thread in the Systems subforum might be the way to go with that.

[four-leaf]

I like that the former ATP player Raemon Sluiter is coaching Kiki Bertens. He was also very good on grass so he might give Kiki some good results on grass this season to. Anyways tonight is Kikis night by the looks of things. Good pick @Tennis Picks

[Smiles Tennis]

2 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I like that the former ATP player Raemon Sluiter is coaching Kiki Bertens. He was also very good on grass so he might give Kiki some good results on grass this season to. Anyways tonight is Kikis night by the looks of things. Good pick @Tennis Picks

Thanks, I seem to have much better results with WTA than the mens. For my system thread, 13 of the last 16 losers were ATP. It's always been my weak point. Time to focus on WTA more again I think. 

[Teodore]

Hurkacz will be huge player! 

#polishpower

[Torque]

@Tennis Picks From what I've read it looks as though what you're doing is based on lots of historical data. With that in mind, I'm sure you know that 13 losers out of 16 bets means about as much as 13 winners out of 16 bets. Hypothetically of course, your ATP picks could be on the wrong side of variance at the same time as your WTA picks are on the right side. Good luck with what you're doing anyway - it's an interesting premise 

[four-leaf]

28 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said:

Thanks, I seem to have much better results with WTA than the mens. For my system thread, 13 of the last 16 losers were ATP. It's always been my weak point. Time to focus on WTA more again I think. 

What do you think about Claire Lius chances in Bonita Springs? She's facing highflying Whitney Osuigwe but there is a rainbreak in Bonita Springs right now but Claire has met Whitney in Miami round 1 last season and Claire beat her by 6-3 6-1. But that was when Whitney was 15 and about to turn 16. Now Whitney is 17 and already higher ranked than Claire ever has been after Whitneys recent success.

[four-leaf]

Claire Liu to beat Whitney Osuigwe at 2.65 with betfair

Claire lost to Kayla Day recently 7-6 6-4 and Whitney beat Kayla 6-0 6-4 the week before. Strange these results in tennis sometimes and I think we might see a strange result here. Claire beats a fatigued Whitney would not be so unlikely.

[aphro]

Yesterday evening was disaster, i was thinking to quit Cilic - Djere match when Djere won first set and 3 games in the second set (odds for Cilic were around 18), but then i thought - what could go wrong and left the stake.

As for others lost stakes - i suppose that someone's idea that there are days when everything goes wrrong (all favorites win for example) is damn right, but i don't know how to implement it to avoid these days.

 

2 hours ago, kuklachert said:

Sorry in advance for eventual offtopic, apparently I'm not able to send private messages due to not having posted on public forums yet.

I'm a lurker here and currently testing statistical models similar to the "value radar", but they're not yet good enough for me to allow myself posting reliable picks. I'd like to exchange a couple of ideas about model-based predictions with those of you who use these methods to pick bets. So I'd like to make myself visible in this post to encourage aphro and other model-supported gamblers (Tennis Picks too?) to start an idea exchange via PM or possibly a separate forum topic with more technical stuff that wouldn't be as interesting to those of you that base their predictions on watching tennis rather than statistical modeling.

Hope I get a bit of feedback here.

Hi mate! As for me, i hope that community opinion could improve my model so publishing your picks here is the best way to get expert's opinion. I would like to have a look at piece of your data, because i have several factors that made the whole model and they can improve yours too.

 

 

[Torque]

3 minutes ago, aphro said:

Yesterday evening was disaster, i was thinking to quit Cilic - Djere match when Djere won first set and 3 games in the second set (odds for Cilic were around 18), but then i thought - what could go wrong and left the stake.

As for others lost stakes - i suppose that someone's idea that there are days when everything goes wrrong (all favorites win for example) is damn right, but i don't know how to implement it to avoid these days.

You can't avoid them - they're an occupational hazard when it comes to betting... unless you can see into the future