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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - May 6 - May 12

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Pouille to beat Hurkacz at 2.29 with Pinnacle

Pouille is a player who either drops off in the first round or goes far in the tournament. A few days ago he won Bordeaux challenger and now continued his winning streak by defeating Borna  Coric yesterday. Hurkacz is also in good run after winning 3 matches in Madrid but I do not think he should be a favorite here. There is some value for Pouille’s win in my eyes.

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Steven Diez to beat Pablo Cuevas at 3.30 with Unibet

Strange to see Pablo in Aix en Provence. Shouldn't he be gearing up for the qualies in Rome this weekend? Anyways he comes here to play and meets Steven with a dangerous form. Steven is 20-6 this season, he's been doing very well over the last months even winning one challenger title. He's not gonna be an easy match for Pablo.

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David Ferrer to beat Sascha Zverev at 3.25 with Unibet

Davids last tournament, so exciting and he's doing all he can to prolong his procareer while Sascha isn't exactly at his best. Sascha won Madrid last season but that I don't expect him to succeed with this season. It's quite likely to see an upset here. You got to like David in this spot.

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Agree with you on Ferrer, I see some clear value here. I backed him to beat RBA in the last round (had a feeling his good friend would be a little accommodating shall we say, for David's swan song here), although it was a little worrying to see him cramp up in the final set. Zverev hasn't played well for quite a while, and Ferrer has beaten him a few times before, so I expect at least a run for my money.

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Djere to beat Cilic at 2.38 with Unibet

Cilic won 2 close wins against Klizan and Struff, but his overall shape during the year is not impressive. Jere is making tremendous progress - winning the title in Rio and playing semifinal in São Paulo and Budapest. The Serbian is in better shape and preferred surface give a good chance to win this game.

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Joseph Kovalik to beat Stefano Napolitano 1.72 with bet365

Sorry bit of a late one but ive only just got a chance to check the matches for tomorrow.

I feel its only a matter of time before Kovalik starts to string some wins together after coming back from injury as he a soild clay courter with some great wins last year. Napolitano, on the only hand, isn't particularly great on clay although he has been in good form recently, his wins have come on hard courts.

The odds are only close because of the contrast of form rather than ability.

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Value radar:

Nishikori to beat Wawrinka at 2.2 with Pinnacle.

Initial odds for Nishikori were 1.85 and bookies do not expect big difference in scores (spread = 1 point with 2.00 odd), so actually i suppose that Nishikori is favorite or equal here.

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4 minutes ago, eros said:

Yeah, seems only the radar can get us out of shit at the moment.:loon

I took Djere too, also odds on Fognini seems to be clear value to me.

Yes, Fognini is also in my sight, but i've decided not to take odds higher than 2.5

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3 minutes ago, eros said:

Here we have the 2 best players on clay in 2019. For sure Dominic can win, but against Opelka this was nothing and Fognini in this great form will be hard to beat, If he can keep this up, he'll march into the quarters I think. So come on, odds over 3 are more than juicy.

Sound good, i like when my value radar's signals coincide with someones opinion, i'll take him (moreover he is available with 5Dimes at 3.35)

The reason why i'm not taking higher odds is that within limitations it shows consistent profit, but if i take higher odds - it has significant drawdowns.

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Stan and Hubert Hurkacz in three I think, they both got the game for this surface in Madrid. Tsitsipas and Thiem in two. Rafa and Nole in two, Fed in three.

Rudolf Molleker to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.75 with Unibet

Pablo should be sent packing here for the Rome qualifiers. With a little bit better mentality from Steven Diez it would be Steven playing Rudolf. Pablo with a hole tournament in Estoril with qualies inclusive it's gonna be hard for him to win this match.

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I was just looking at some stuff today and I have to say, the Tennis Integrity Unit has had absolutely no effect on all the shady dealings on the lower circuits. It's just so embarrassing with players doing some stuff right in the face of everyone and no action taken. You don't need direct evidence and the mobile phones of the players to realize what's going on, if you've got players retiring on set points and/or near match points it's just blatant. 

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It's not about a specific match and I'm not going to accuse anyone publicly, it's just that I was hoping that the number of strange retirements is going to go down after TIU banned a few unknown players. Hasn't happened though and, to this day, Kicker is - as far as I know - the only really well-known player that has been punished recently.

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Kiki Bertens to bt Petra Kvitova @2.28 with Betfair

Bertens over-performs when an average of these odds, going 18-15 including winning 5 of the last 6 (although this does include a WO against Muguruza).

At these odds, Bertens hasn't lost in straight sets since losing to Coco in IW over three years ago. 

Similarly, Kvitova underperforms at her odds, going 14-14. She's also lost three of her last four when around these odds, losing to Barty, Osaka and Svitolina. 

My other system has Bertens to back in play but I might stop doing in play and taking pre-match bets as they missed four winners today because they didn't drift enough. Bertens to take this. 

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Sorry in advance for eventual offtopic, apparently I'm not able to send private messages due to not having posted on public forums yet.

I'm a lurker here and currently testing statistical models similar to the "value radar", but they're not yet good enough for me to allow myself posting reliable picks. I'd like to exchange a couple of ideas about model-based predictions with those of you who use these methods to pick bets. So I'd like to make myself visible in this post to encourage aphro and other model-supported gamblers (Tennis Picks too?) to start an idea exchange via PM or possibly a separate forum topic with more technical stuff that wouldn't be as interesting to those of you that base their predictions on watching tennis rather than statistical modeling.

Hope I get a bit of feedback here.

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1 hour ago, Tennis Picks said:

Kiki Bertens to bt Petra Kvitova @2.28 with Betfair

Bertens over-performs when an average of these odds, going 18-15 including winning 5 of the last 6 (although this does include a WO against Muguruza).

At these odds, Bertens hasn't lost in straight sets since losing to Coco in IW over three years ago. 

Similarly, Kvitova underperforms at her odds, going 14-14. She's also lost three of her last four when around these odds, losing to Barty, Osaka and Svitolina. 

My other system has Bertens to back in play but I might stop doing in play and taking pre-match bets as they missed four winners today because they didn't drift enough. Bertens to take this. 

Thanks for posting, I've gone for +3.5 games Kiki Bertens at 1.60 with Betfair and this reasoning from you makes me feel better about it.

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