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Tennis Tips - May 6 - May 12

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1 hour ago, kuklachert said:

Sorry in advance for eventual offtopic, apparently I'm not able to send private messages due to not having posted on public forums yet.

I'm a lurker here and currently testing statistical models similar to the "value radar", but they're not yet good enough for me to allow myself posting reliable picks. I'd like to exchange a couple of ideas about model-based predictions with those of you who use these methods to pick bets. So I'd like to make myself visible in this post to encourage aphro and other model-supported gamblers (Tennis Picks too?) to start an idea exchange via PM or possibly a separate forum topic with more technical stuff that wouldn't be as interesting to those of you that base their predictions on watching tennis rather than statistical modeling.

Hope I get a bit of feedback here.

Sounds interesting but I have very little time. I run a business and have a young baby on top of trying to do these tennis picks already. I would say start a thread, others might have some input then and I will read and contribute when I can. 

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2 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I like that the former ATP player Raemon Sluiter is coaching Kiki Bertens. He was also very good on grass so he might give Kiki some good results on grass this season to. Anyways tonight is Kikis night by the looks of things. Good pick @Tennis Picks

Thanks, I seem to have much better results with WTA than the mens. For my system thread, 13 of the last 16 losers were ATP. It's always been my weak point. Time to focus on WTA more again I think. 

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@Tennis Picks From what I've read it looks as though what you're doing is based on lots of historical data. With that in mind, I'm sure you know that 13 losers out of 16 bets means about as much as 13 winners out of 16 bets. Hypothetically of course, your ATP picks could be on the wrong side of variance at the same time as your WTA picks are on the right side. Good luck with what you're doing anyway - it's an interesting premise :ok

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28 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said:

Thanks, I seem to have much better results with WTA than the mens. For my system thread, 13 of the last 16 losers were ATP. It's always been my weak point. Time to focus on WTA more again I think. 

What do you think about Claire Lius chances in Bonita Springs? She's facing highflying Whitney Osuigwe but there is a rainbreak in Bonita Springs right now but Claire has met Whitney in Miami round 1 last season and Claire beat her by 6-3 6-1. But that was when Whitney was 15 and about to turn 16. Now Whitney is 17 and already higher ranked than Claire ever has been after Whitneys recent success.

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Claire Liu to beat Whitney Osuigwe at 2.65 with betfair

Claire lost to Kayla Day recently 7-6 6-4 and Whitney beat Kayla 6-0 6-4 the week before. Strange these results in tennis sometimes and I think we might see a strange result here. Claire beats a fatigued Whitney would not be so unlikely.

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Yesterday evening was disaster, i was thinking to quit Cilic - Djere match when Djere won first set and 3 games in the second set (odds for Cilic were around 18), but then i thought - what could go wrong and left the stake.

As for others lost stakes - i suppose that someone's idea that there are days when everything goes wrrong (all favorites win for example) is damn right, but i don't know how to implement it to avoid these days.

 

2 hours ago, kuklachert said:

Sorry in advance for eventual offtopic, apparently I'm not able to send private messages due to not having posted on public forums yet.

I'm a lurker here and currently testing statistical models similar to the "value radar", but they're not yet good enough for me to allow myself posting reliable picks. I'd like to exchange a couple of ideas about model-based predictions with those of you who use these methods to pick bets. So I'd like to make myself visible in this post to encourage aphro and other model-supported gamblers (Tennis Picks too?) to start an idea exchange via PM or possibly a separate forum topic with more technical stuff that wouldn't be as interesting to those of you that base their predictions on watching tennis rather than statistical modeling.

Hope I get a bit of feedback here.

Hi mate! As for me, i hope that community opinion could improve my model so publishing your picks here is the best way to get expert's opinion. I would like to have a look at piece of your data, because i have several factors that made the whole model and they can improve yours too.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, aphro said:

Yesterday evening was disaster, i was thinking to quit Cilic - Djere match when Djere won first set and 3 games in the second set (odds for Cilic were around 18), but then i thought - what could go wrong and left the stake.

As for others lost stakes - i suppose that someone's idea that there are days when everything goes wrrong (all favorites win for example) is damn right, but i don't know how to implement it to avoid these days.

You can't avoid them - they're an occupational hazard when it comes to betting... unless you can see into the future :lol

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A.Zverev to beat Tsitsipas at 2.34 with Pinnacle

Tsitsipas is in run of six consecutive wins. He won the title in Estoril last weekend, and now he has won 2 more wins against Mannarino and Verdasco. As a matter of fact during this period, he met players who are either not in the shape or far from his class. OK, Zverev is also not in the best shape, but there is enough class and especially motivation to defend points from last year. I think this is 50-50 game in worst case, so I am happy with odds for Zverev to win this game.

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1 hour ago, i1_principe said:

A.Zverev to beat Tsitsipas at 2.34 with Pinnacle

Tsitsipas is in run of six consecutive wins. He won the title in Estoril last weekend, and now he has won 2 more wins against Mannarino and Verdasco. As a matter of fact during this period, he met players who are either not in the shape or far from his class. OK, Zverev is also not in the best shape, but there is enough class and especially motivation to defend points from last year. I think this is 50-50 game in worst case, so I am happy with odds for Zverev to win this game.

I think you might be dissapointed here so I'm not gonna back you on this one

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8 hours ago, Torque said:

@Tennis Picks From what I've read it looks as though what you're doing is based on lots of historical data. With that in mind, I'm sure you know that 13 losers out of 16 bets means about as much as 13 winners out of 16 bets. Hypothetically of course, your ATP picks could be on the wrong side of variance at the same time as your WTA picks are on the right side. Good luck with what you're doing anyway - it's an interesting premise :ok

Yes, it's a very small sample but more I mentioned it because it's been the same for years. I have had breaks from betting and trading over time, mostly due to lack of discipline and I have always had my best results with WTA. 

That it came up again could be pure short term variance, but it keeps me thinking to all the times in the past. 

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8 hours ago, four-leaf said:

What do you think about Claire Lius chances in Bonita Springs? She's facing highflying Whitney Osuigwe but there is a rainbreak in Bonita Springs right now but Claire has met Whitney in Miami round 1 last season and Claire beat her by 6-3 6-1. But that was when Whitney was 15 and about to turn 16. Now Whitney is 17 and already higher ranked than Claire ever has been after Whitneys recent success.

I think Osuigwe will take this. She's 16-3 on clay when starting as favourite. She's also 12-2 this year on the dirt. 

Liu is 2-3 on clay this year and has been fave for all of her matches. All three defeats came to players ranked 100 or 200 places below her. So with her losing as fave it would be hard to back her as an underdog. She is 2-10 when not the fave with both those wins coming on the hardcourt. 

On the upside for you @four-leaf, if you haven't backed her yet she is now 3.05 on Betfair. I will be on Osuigwe for this though I will try to get 1.5 in-play. 

Edited by Tennis Picks

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59 minutes ago, Tennis Picks said:

I think Osuigwe will take this. She's 16-3 on clay when starting as favourite. She's also 12-2 this year on the dirt. 

Liu is 2-3 on clay this year and has been fave for all of her matches. All three defeats came to players ranked 100 or 200 places below her. So with her losing as fave it would be hard to back her as an underdog. She is 2-10 when not the fave with both those wins coming on the hardcourt. 

On the upside for you @four-leaf, if you haven't backed her yet she is now 3.05 on Betfair. I will be on Osuigwe for this though I will try to get 1.5 in-play. 

No I haven't backed Claire yet and I don't think I will. I'll be on Whitney just like you suggest.

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Kiki Bertens to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.42 with betfair

Kiki played a very good match yesterday when she bested Petra and if she brings that game again she's gonna win Mutua Madrid Open, I can't see Simona Halep stopping her even if the romanian has been on her usual clay rampage.

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Halep to beat Bencic - 1.38 on Betfair

Halep 17-1 in the last 12 months on clay, losing only in Rome final to Svitolina. She's on fire this week. 

Bencic did well to beat Osaka but Osaka is still finding her game on clay. Bencic already lost to Martic and Lottner in the last few weeks. 

Bencic is 3-7 on clay as underdog. The Osaka win was one win, with the other two coming way back in 2014.

I can't see her beating Halep here. I was tempted to get a bigger price in play but could also see this being a 6-2 6-3 easy win so didn't want to risk missing out. 

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Hey tennis bettors

Did anyone watch Federer recently?  

As for Tsitsipas he is trying to finish the points the soonest- moving regularlyto the net- because clay does not suit his game. Seems that Tsitsipas and clay are not a good pair.

I am on Zverev to beat Tsitsipas @ 2.20 Bet365

 

 

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15 minutes ago, delfino said:

Hey tennis bettors

Did anyone watch Federer recently?  

As for Tsitsipas he is trying to finish the points the soonest- moving regularlyto the net- because clay does not suit his game. Seems that Tsitsipas and clay are not a good pair.

I am on Zverev to beat Tsitsipas @ 2.20 Bet365

 

 

Yes i agree with that, my value radar shows the same but recent trend worries too much

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Early break for Dominic, looks good. Now he just needs to hold serve four more times and then first set is on the board. It's likely that Novak can even drop serve another time in first set. He's looked pretty crappy the first points in this semi.

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14 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Early break for Dominic, looks good. Now he just needs to hold serve four more times and then first set is on the board. It's likely that Novak can even drop serve another time in first set. He's looked pretty crappy the first points in this semi.

Never underestimate Nole :)

Of course he still can lose the match but that’s why he is number 1. He can beat anyone in a good day.

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