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Tennis Tips - May 6 - May 12

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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat (-1.5 games) Richard Gasquet at 1.91 with Unibet

This will be an extremely tough nut to crack for Richard. He hasn't played since 6 full months. He was supposed to play in Australian open and then Montpellier but his comeback got postponed due to groin injury I think and now he's going to play in Madrid. Let's hope he doesn't withdraw also because I think this match will be one mutch to tough for him when he hasn't played a competitive match since 6 months backwards.

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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Richard Gasquet at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Yeah, I think @four-leaf is right here, six months is just too much with no practice, especially if you're up against an in-form youngster that's been beating very good players recently. If he had enough mental power to hold his own against Monfils in a tight match, he should have enough to hold his own against rusty Gasquet.

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Roy Smith (+4.5) to beat Di Wu at 1.93 with Pinnacle

I also like this one for early tomorrow. Both guys have been somewhat tragic recently, so I'm not sure what makes Di Wu such a massive favorite in a match that could go in all sorts of directions. Roy Smith might not be the most complete player out there, but he's got a large serve at the very least and he was able to hold it well against Tipsarevic last time out, so I believe that he's going to be a very live underdog in South Korea tomorrow.

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Laslo Djere to beat Dusan Lajovic at 2.37 with Pinnacle

Dusan becomes fav here and there now after he reached that masters final. He didn't win the final as far as I know but Laslo did win his first title, a 500 title in Rio de Janeiro in february so what makes Laslo the underdog here I do not really understand. Apart from Dusan reaching his first final and being 6 spots higher ranked atm he doesn't have a lot to brag about. This is a match that could become shorter than expected and one of the players wins in straight sets. Laslo hasn't played bad lately either having reached the semi of Budapest and I think Dusan will lose more matches early and being more like back to his former self this season where he loses early in tournaments like he did last week in Estoril. I make Laslo the fav here. 1-1 between them after two meetings on clay in 2015.

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well as u folks know this tournament plays a little differently than the other clay m1000, and 500. because of the altitude balls will fly a bit faster. serves will b a bit bigger. big hitters will b able to play their game a little easier. The weather is supposed to b dry and no wind too. Dampness would slow them down a little. The conditions are courts play to the games of the guys i'm playing below. this could all be for nothing and i could lose but this is what i've witnessed and documented in my many years of watching tennis. I'm not (and never will b) a tipster or anything like that, i just love to watch and analyze tennis.

Expecting a Khol hangover from Munich to be honest. That said, I'm liking Kukushkin at +4.5.

I think Seppi could take a set from Monfils. Historically Seppi plays him quite well and Monfils seems to play a lot of 3 set clay court matches. So I like the +1.5 sets.

Like Fokina to keep rolling too.

Also think Klizan can trouble Cilic with these conditions but unsure if I want to bet it.

 

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well as u folks know this tournament plays a little differently than the other clay m1000, and 500. because of the altitude balls will fly a bit faster. serves will b a bit bigger. big hitters will b able to play their game a little easier. The weather is supposed to b dry and no wind too. Dampness would slow them down a little. The conditions are courts play to the games of the guys i'm playing below. this could all be for nothing and i could lose but this is what i've witnessed and documented in my many years of watching tennis. I'm not (and never will b) a tipster or anything like that, i just love to watch and analyze tennis.

Expecting a Khol hangover from Munich to be honest. That said, I'm liking Kukushkin at +4.5.

I think Seppi could take a set from Monfils. Historically Seppi plays him quite well and Monfils seems to play a lot of 3 set clay court matches. So I like the +1.5 sets.

Like Fokina to keep rolling too.

Also think Klizan can trouble Cilic with these conditions but unsure if I want to bet it.

 

With the conditions mentioned, I’d rather go with Cilic, him being a bigger hitter. This guy should start to deliver results one day :)

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Opelka to beat Carreno Busta at 2.12 - Sunbet

Faster conditions should suit Opelka and he had a good win against Londero in Qualifying. Carreno Busta hasn't played much of late and is returning from injury. Think the odds on Opelka seem to be worth a shot but expecting a tight match either way.

Edited by Steven090293

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Laslo Djere to beat Dusan Lajovic at 2.37 with Pinnacle

Dusan becomes fav here and there now after he reached that masters final. He didn't win the final as far as I know but Laslo did win his first title, a 500 title in Rio de Janeiro in february so what makes Laslo the underdog here I do not really understand. Apart from Dusan reaching his first final and being 6 spots higher ranked atm he doesn't have a lot to brag about. This is a match that could become shorter than expected and one of the players wins in straight sets. Laslo hasn't played bad lately either having reached the semi of Budapest and I think Dusan will lose more matches early and being more like back to his former self this season where he loses early in tournaments like he did last week in Estoril. I make Laslo the fav here. 1-1 between them after two meetings on clay in 2015.

My system threw up Djere as well. I will be trying to get on in play at higher odds though. You're right that he lost in the final of Monte Carlo, losing to Fognini after getting some great wins. 

Those wins propelled him from #48 up to #23 where he sits now. 

Apart from Monte Carlo, in Masters events, he has reached the 4th round of IW but he did reach the QF of Madrid last year, getting three good underdog wins against Khachanov, Gasquet and JMDP before losing to Anderson in 3 sets. Should be a good match today. 

Edited by Tennis Picks

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Opelka to beat Carreno Busta at 2.12

Faster conditions should suit Opelka and he had a good win against Londero in Qualifying. Carreno Busta hasn't played much of late and is returning from injury. Think the odds on Opelka seem to be worth a shot but expecting a tight match either way.

I agree that it's gonna be a tight match. It depends on the physics of Carreno Busta.

However, I would be a little bit worried, looking at the qualifier match between Opelka and M. Zverev. Yes, Opelka has won that game however he won it in 2 tie-breaks agains a very weak player. Busta should be definitely a tougher nut to crack.

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Braga Challenger

Fred Gil @3.25 Pinnacle 4/10

Fading Cuevas after losing 06 06 is not bad move imo, i don't rate him anyway. Cuevas won 8/33 service points vs. Ehrat in Savannah a couple of days ago. He didn't do much on the Ehrat serve aswell. It was an awful performance. Not sure if he's injured again or he just had a bad day in the office, doesn't matter at all, he's playing a decent local player in Fred Gil who is former Top 70 player and had some good results over the last years at those bigger tournaments in Portugal. He has very good ballstriking abilities, hits the ball clean and flat but lacking consistency, can implode from nowhere, but i hope it won't today.

Edited by opole

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I agree that it's gonna be a tight match. It depends on the physics of Carreno Busta.

However, I would be a little bit worried, looking at the qualifier match between Opelka and M. Zverev. Yes, Opelka has won that game however he won it in 2 tie-breaks agains a very weak player. Busta should be definitely a tougher nut to crack.

Agreed with you on Zverev and that PCB will be tough to crack - particularly in Spain. Just think there is a bit of value on Opelka given recent form of PCB and Opelka seems to be more than capable on clay - particularly the faster conditions in Madrid. 

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Braga Challenger

Fred Gil @3.25 Pinnacle 4/10

Fading Cuevas after losing 06 06 is not bad move imo, i don't rate him anyway. Cuevas won 8/33 service points vs. Ehrat in Savannah a couple of days ago. He didn't do much on the Ehrat serve aswell. It was an awful performance. Not sure if he's injured again or he just had a bad day in the office, doesn't matter at all, he's playing a decent local player in Fred Gil who is former Top 70 player and had some good results over the last years at those bigger tournaments in Portugal. He has very good ballstriking abilities, hits the ball clean and flat but lacking consistency, can implode from nowhere, but i hope it won't today.

Gil is 57-35 playing at home on the clay, you're right that he enjoys playing here. 

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Fognini to beat Edmund at 1.93 with Pinnacle

Edmund has played 4 games this year on clay and has lost 3 of them. A few days ago he even lost to Kudla in Munich and that shows us what his level is at the moment. After winning in Monte Carlo, Fognini gave up Barcelona and Estoril and now returns rested. I do not see this as a 50-50 game, I think Fognini should be a solid favorite here, of course there is always a question about Fabio's motivation, but if he has taken it seriously should win this game easily.

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Fucsovics to beat Goffin at 2.47 with Pinnacle

More than a year Goffin can not find his game. OK, he reached the semi-finals in Estoril, but was not particularly convincing with his game. On the other pole is Fucsovics, who has been making good progress in recent months, and I think he has a pretty good chance of winning here.

 

 

Edited by i1_principe

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8 hours ago, Steven090293 said:

Opelka to beat Carreno Busta at 2.12 - Sunbet

Faster conditions should suit Opelka and he had a good win against Londero in Qualifying. Carreno Busta hasn't played much of late and is returning from injury. Think the odds on Opelka seem to be worth a shot but expecting a tight match either way.

Very good one, the conditions are very different here and fits very well to Opelka's game

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Andrey Golubev to beat Jurij Rodionov at 3.75 with William Hill

Well, at 3.75, I think this is worth a shot. Golubev is returning after a break, I'm not sure for how long, but he's probably just enjoying himself in local Challengers and he's doing fine. Not a Top 40 player anymore, but those skills don't really go away completely. Rodionov is supposed to be promising, but he's been stalling for some time now without any good runs, so there's that. It's easy to see why he should win this and he very well might, but 3.75 on a player that's by no means bad doesn't make much sense to me. The set handicap is a nice alternative I guess, but I think that Andrey is going to be either very competitive or just not in it at all, so, logically, I suggest backing him outright or not at all.

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Jurgen Melzer to beat Steven Diez at 2.22 with Unibet

As noticed in late march Jurgen hasn't retired. He plays on full speed in doubles and sometimes in singles and I'm going to back him to beat Steven here. Jurgen is far superior to many players on the challenger tour and Steven is no exception.

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Richard Gasquet to beat (+1.5 sets) Roger Federer at 2.50 with Unibet

Looks like Richard will stand a chance here. He's not gonna win the match, that's completely out of the question for me but he can absolutely steal a set if judging by how he played yesterday which wasn't bad.

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1 pick for tomorrow match:

ATP CHALLENGER SHYMKENT SAFIULLIN-2.5 GAMES OVER FAYZIEV @ 1.54 pinnacle
Safiullin is a former no. 1 junior in the world but had a lot of injuries to prevent top-50 from him in the ATP tour. This year he is 10-0 on clay winning 2 smaller tournaments and also defeating Fayziev in one of them (who prefers fast courts).


 

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Attila Balasz to beat Mate Valkusz at 1.75 with BetVictor

Time for me to trust Balasz once again I guess. He didn't care much about Ostrava last week, but I can understand that, he was going there from a bigger tournament and this week's Challenger is bigger as well, so perhaps he was just saving some energy. He's been the much better performer of the two in recent weeks in any case, however, and should take this if he wants it. Valkusz has improved since his two previous losses against Balasz, but I wouldn't say that he's on his level just yet. Was expecting something like 1.50.

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Joao Sousa (-1,5 Sets) to beat Adrian Mannarino at 2.23 with Marathonbet

I expect an easy match for Sousa here. Mannarino has a W/L record of 72-93. He was almost eliminated by an unknown 17 years old player on his first match here and then was destroyed by Klizan. Sousa has a W/L record of 283-204 on clay.

Taylor Fritz (+5,5 Games) to beat Nole Djokovic at 1.70 with Marathonbet

Considering the actual form of Nole, the conditions here and how good is playing Fritz nowadays I think this line can be covered easily.

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