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StevieDay1983

Weekend > Mar 18th & 19th

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It was a subdued weekend in the last round of fixtures due to the FA Cup but we are back this coming weekend with a full list of games. The highlight being Manchester City versus Liverpool. This game could have a huge say on the race for the top four.

@DW_United, you correctly backed a Swansea team in form last week but they just couldn't pull it off. You did make a good call on the Bournemouth versus West Ham game. Did you back over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals?

@Tanktop, you also backed goals in that game but unfortunately backed the wrong team to win. What is taking your fancy here?

@allyhibs, another sucked in by the Bournemouth player absentees. Didn't account for the wonder of Joshua King! You going to bet on these games?

@mrclubbie, you, however, got Bournemouth spot on. Keen to hear your tip for this weekend.

@omch@, great to see a new face. Even if your confidence in your own English isn't the greatest, you're still welcome to post your thoughts! :lol

@andrewcalo, you must be concerned after that Hull defeat. BBC ran an article today saying no team that has conceded 60 goals or more in a season has stayed up. Reckon you're in danger still? Can you beat Bournemouth away this weekend?

@Mindfulness, can you give us the inside info on the Eagles? Can you beat Watford here?

@Icongene, your thoughts are always appreciated around here. What are you thinking of this weekend?

@sajtion, you were let down by Pep and Manchester City. What will you be backing here?

@KikoCy, you also went for City in that 0-0 draw. Who will you be betting on this weekend?

Also keen to hear from a few regulars who stayed clear of the reduced fixture list last week such as @Tiffy, @discipline, @neilovan, @KingSoccertips, @vasilli07, @DrBetter, @betcatalog, @Division, and @WinningAdvice.

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2 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

It's suspiciously quiet around here this week. Too many of you watching too much Cheltenham Festival! :rollin

@StevieDay1983 I think EPL has produced a really terrible card this week for 1X2 and AH markets. Bournemouth V Swansea, Palace V Watford, Sunderland V Burnley, West Ham V Leicester and Manchester City V Liverpool are all nightmare games to predict. I just don't seem to have a read on any of the games this week + ELO ratings aren't really helping due to what the fixture machine has produced - a lot of weird clashes.

One thing I will say is that markets just don't know how to price Palace atm. HW is odds on and this is just ridiculous. A draw is definitely possible for that game as both teams are similar in terms of attacking strength. Palace have the better defense imo but that maybe offset by the fact that all the pressure is on us and we often choke in our home games.

Maybe @andrewcalo and his Man U hating ways can find something here. Perhaps a saucy Middlesbrough -3 could be in the offing?!?!?!?!? :eek

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Took a break :moon\

But definitely back now. Made some bets on a lot of Premier League matches but I made some huge risks.

A lot of you will argue with me on this one but after their Champions League exit, I think the Citizens will be out to prove themselves. I'm backing a Man City win with correct score 2-1 against Liverpool.

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arsenal have to beat west brom. i don't care about stats, form or anything else. their top for finish is in serious jeopardy. 

crystal palace is six pointer and considering their previous two victories without conceding they look like they can make it three in a row.

hull has played well there is no doubt about it in my mind so i like them to take something from everton. i think they will have equal possession and few chances to score and it will be brave courageous fight but claim point.

i will give sunderland chance to win here even though burnley have been incredibly consistent this season at least in the way they play but away from home they don't have winning mentality. sunderland can probably shade it by one goal.

west ham can't keep goals out and i think it's down slaven bilic over ambitious approach to win every match. he never sets west ham to defend. leicester are really on a high at the moment. this is my opinion is going to be score draw and probably 2-2 final result.

man utd side cannot break down defensive teams. middlesborough can get three points against them because they will just sit back and watch man utd run themselves before conceding a sloppy goal

Edited by sajtion

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West Brom will give Arsenal a game.

Stoke home against a Chelsea team due to drop points.

Big Sam don't stand for anything less than a draw against Watford.

Swansea used to draw every other week and haven't in ages. Bournemouth aren't exactly strangers to a draw either.

Hull fighting for their lives.

Sunderland and Burnley equal shiteness.

Wedt Ham and Leicester equal quality.

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34 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

Draws this week. What a surprise eh?

I think all the Saturday games have serious potential to end in draws.

We are entering the time that Sir Alex Ferguson labelled "squeaky bum time" so teams tend to tighten up and results begin to get a little bit less predictable as the pressure grows.

@WinningAdvice, great to have you back. We've missed you!

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Premier League:


West Bromwich Albion F.C. have scored in 71% of their home games this season but only kept a clean sheet 29% of the time.
Everton have won each of their last 5 home games by more than 1 goal.
Chelsea have won 64% of their away games this season.


Interesting 34 Football Betting Facts for 17.03.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-17-03-2017

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What a tasty line-up of fixtures this weekend, from a neutral standpoint at least.

Staying away from United as it's stressing, being a United fan and putting money on them. They should keep a clean sheet vs Karanka's men and that game has U2.5 written all over it.

Sunderland vs Burnley another tight encounter that I expect Sunderland to nick, barely.

I don’t see much value in the other elite leagues so I will go big on EPL as I am going away for the weekend and want to come back to a fat payoff.

 

Everton – Hull

 

4th best defence at home vs Hull who have failed to score in 43% of their games (3rd worst).

Big Rom has never scored in 4 consecutive games but I am sure he will turn up, looking for another lucrative offer to take him away from Goodison after rejecting a contract extension.

Baines is back, providing a boost at the back; should allow 3-4-2-1 which means a clean sheet for me!

Everton win to nil @ 2.5

 

Bournemouth – Swansea

Both these teams are scoring and conceding for fun.

Bournemouth is leaky at the back and lack discipline in defence. Swansea is clawing their way out of relegation and Gylfi has hit a nice patch of form.

I predict goals in this one.

BTTS @ 1.55 lacks value so my pick for this is Over 2.5 @ 1.75

Swansea also has a very tempting price at 3.5

 

Stoke – Chelsea

Chelsea want to wrap this up ASAP and their quality speaks for itself. Moses out but any punter following EPL this season knows that Chelsea will score two and concede max 1 in this game.

Stoke did well against City in their last way game and picked up some form at home, notably holding Everton to a draw too.

I think Chelsea has too much depth compared to Everton and any one of their players can turn up.

Too much quality and their formation is stifling and penetrates teams that sit back.

Chelsea @ 1.615 is a steal.

Chelsea HT/FT @ 2.45 also great.

 

West Brom – Arsenal

Arsenal are undergoing their usual ‘start of the year pressure’ and this will be a must win for them, to get that weight off their shoulders.

West Brom is decent at home and Pulis’s sides always do decently at home but have conceded 1.21 goals on average per home game.

Arsenal has the highest BTTS % in the league, 77% away from home and has failed to score in only 8% of their games. They average 2.23 goals scored away.

An average of 67% of games between these two these season have gone O2.5.

Over 2.5 @ 1.833

BTTS and Arsenal win @ 3.4

 

West Ham – Leicester

The Hammers have lost their last 4 and won only 1 of last 6.

They have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches,

The Foxes seem to be on the up and up, bashing bookies left right and center over the past week.

Still, they are winless in their last 15 away games (!), failed to score in their last 4 away games and the odds reflect this.

These stats are contradicting and this game could very well go either way.

I will back Over 2.5 @ 1.833 as both teams will be out to win this.

West Ham to score from a set piece or Lanzini outside the box, Vardy to hit a counter and perhaps score one of the 29 chances he will get.

 

Spurs – Soton

Easy, Spurs win for me here. They are on fire and despite Kane being out, I am sure Son will slip in and keep the momentum going.

They are unmatchable at home.

Soton have scored 4 in each of their last two games despite losing to Swansea and West Ham before that. They are good at keeping U2.5 but I can’t see them putting up much of a defence. Gabbiadini has proven how deadly he is  but the prices exist for a reason and that is Spurs solid defence. Soton also have a great defence but I see Spurs scoring more than conceding

Over 2.5 @ 2.00, justified price for those interested

Spurs win @ 1.7 is a steal

Spurs win & O2.5 for me @ 2.625, small unit on this.

 

Man City – Liverpool

Arguably the game of the weekend and I see certain punters backing City.

I will back Liverpool here and the reason for this being that they are formidable against the top 6 and then drop points against mid-tier teams.

This is the type of game they thrive in, specifically Mane.

City will be tired from Monaco I reckon but will still put up a decent fight.

BTTS is likely here too and Sane/Aguero/Sterling are more than capable of nicking a goal vs Liverpool’s defence which is arguably their weak point.

Henderson out is a massive blow but Wijnaldum and Can have picked up their form recently.

I would expect Yaya Toure to make a cameo to provide the physicality in midfield and KDB should be looking to make amends for the terrible performance and Parc des Princes midweek.

BTTS @ 1.5

Liverpool & BTTS @ 6

 

 

Best of luck gentlemen.

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Based on EPL table and statistics:

Everton vs Hull: Over 2.5 - Everton average slightly more than 2 goals per home match, while it is the opposite for Hull (more than 2 goals conceded per away match)

Sunderland vs Burnley: Sunderland 1x2 - A great opportunity for Sunderland to grab 3 points against the league's worst away team ?

Bournemouth vs Swansea: Over 2.5 - Statistically, Swansea averaging 1 goal scored and 2 goals conceded per away match. Besides, recent meetings have contributed plenty of goals

Middlesbrough vs Man Utd: Under 2.5 - No reason, just seeing both sides not much goals for their home and away matches respectively :rollinAnyway Ibrahimovic is suspended is it ?

 

Edited by mrclubbie

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Hi , 1st post :ok

Saturday fixtures :

The stand out game for me is Everton v Hull , i think this is the only fixture that looks a dead cert with Everton as winners. Looking at the other fixtures its hard to call any Home or Away winners. Although you could look at Chelsea away to Stoke. With Chelsea on form and Stoke being Stoke maybe go for the draw or double chance with Chelsea as a safer option.

Next i would be looking at Bournemouth v Swansea. Bournemouth struggling to find any real form but manage to score 1 goal a game at home and pretty much concede 2. Swansea managing to find the back of the net on their last 5 away matches i can see both teams scoring. If your risky maybe BTTS Swansea win.

Safe betting options :

 

3 Fold

Everton v Hull - Everton WIN

Stoke v Chelsea - Double Chance Draw or Chelsea 

Bournemouth v Swansea - BTTS 

Edited by rashers

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@Mindfulness, Yeah, you are right. It's a tough week. I'm thinking of doing a @betcatalog and backing the goals market or hopping on board the @Tiffy corners bus!

I'm still going to stick my neck out and put down my predictions for the games...

Arsenal to beat West Brom

Crystal Palace to draw with Watford

Everton to beat Hull

Chelsea to beat Stoke

Sunderland to beat Burnley

West Ham to draw with Leicester

Bournemouth to draw with Swansea (I am tempted to back Eddie Howe's side here though - honeymoon could be over for Clement after 2 defeats in last 3 league games!)

Manchester United to beat Middlesbrough

Tottenham to draw with Southampton (although I even fancy the Saints to snatch a win if Tottenham don't have Kane)

Manchester City to draw with Liverpool (wouldn't be surprised if Klopp's side won - they do love being the underdogs!)

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I have two picks for Sunday. United - Middlesbrough really looks lika a low scoring game. Boro has only conceded 30 goals (8 at home) so far, which is about half as much as some teams around them in the table. United has played against Rostov recently and really have trouble finding the goal against teams that defend well. On top of that, Zlatan is suspended and Pogba injured. I will be happy if we manage to get 3 points here but i fear a 0-0 game.
Under 2,5 goals at 1,75 is gold!

And then I am gonna back Liverpool. City has just had a tough game against Monaco and the loss has to cost a lot of mental and physical energy.
Liverpool has had all week to prepare for this game and performe well against top teams. Pool won against Spurs and Arsenal recently and I think they are worth backing with odds close to 4

Edited by DW_United

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Crystal Palace v Watford FC

Crystal Palace: Mathieu Flamini (7/0 m, doubtful), Connor Wickham (8/2 f), Pape Souare (3/0 d), Steve Mandanda (9/0 g), Loic Rémy (4/0 m), Patrick van Aanholt (5/1d), Jonathan Benteke (1/0 f)

Watford FC: Etienne Capoue (27/5 m, 2nd top scorer, illness, doubtful), Roberto Pereyra (13/2 f), Ben Watson (4/0 m), Christian Kabasele (11/2 d), Mauro Zárate (3/0 f)

 

Everton FC v Hull City

Everton FC: James McCarthy (12/1 m), Yannick Bolasie (13/1 m), Muhamed Bešić (0/0 d)

Hull City: Markus Henriksen (0/0 m, doubtful), Oumar Niasse (8/3 f, on loan from Everton), Evandro (5/0 m), Dieumerci Mbokani (9/0 f), Michael Dawson (15/3 d), Ryan Mason (16/1 m), Will Keane (5/0 f), Moses Odubajo (0/0 d), Brian Lenihan (0/0 d), Greg Luer (0/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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On 17/03/2017, 00:30:52, allyhibs said:

No need for any reasoning really. Chelsea win at 8/13. I think it'll be nearer 1/2 by kick off.

Cant get rid of the quote lol.

wanted to tell you that the tipster I love is backing Stoke  and West Brom in their games and if you look at Arsenal and chelseas odds you'll see the dreaded 1.55/1.65 which the bookies love to lay down to tempt us and at the same time cover their backsides.

these games are not safe bets boys stay clear or go for the under dogs.

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Pps anyone thinking on betting overs in swanseas match - both out first choice full backs are injured - Rangell and Mawson.

After our shocking defensive display last week and given Clements is a classically trained defensive manager, overs might not be so safe either.

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Premier League:


Everton have won with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 5 home matches in Premier League.
Leicester have failed to win their last 15 away matches in Premier League.
Rotherham have lost their last 11 away matches in Championship.
Ipswich have drawn their last 6 matches in Championship.
Sunderland have lost with at least a 2 goal margin in their last 3 matches in Premier League.
QPR have won with a 1 goal margin in their last 3 home matches in Championship.

Interesting 36 Football Streaks for 18.03.2017 ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-streaks-18-03-2017

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23 hours ago, rashers said:

Hi , 1st post :ok

Saturday fixtures :

The stand out game for me is Everton v Hull , i think this is the only fixture that looks a dead cert with Everton as winners. Looking at the other fixtures its hard to call any Home or Away winners. Although you could look at Chelsea away to Stoke. With Chelsea on form and Stoke being Stoke maybe go for the draw or double chance with Chelsea as a safer option.

Next i would be looking at Bournemouth v Swansea. Bournemouth struggling to find any real form but manage to score 1 goal a game at home and pretty much concede 2. Swansea managing to find the back of the net on their last 5 away matches i can see both teams scoring. If your risky maybe BTTS Swansea win.

Safe betting options :

 

3 Fold

Everton v Hull - Everton WIN

Stoke v Chelsea - Double Chance Draw or Chelsea 

Bournemouth v Swansea - BTTS 

:welcome to PL @rashers

 

Great first post :ok 

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Only betting on one game

Manchester City vs Liverpool

Going safe with BTTS. There's always goals when these two meet. Both attacking teams with leaky defenses. So, i'm going with both scoring at least once.

BTTS 1.57 @Bet365

 

 

 

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