French Open 2023

[neilovan]

7 minutes ago, DrO said:

Nope. I dod not.
In one period of the 2nd set she was on the 15-0 run in points on her serve,and still wasn't able to put any kind of pressure on Maia.
She lost tb with that horrible fh miss.

And then complete meltdown in the decider.
Funny thing is that she, not Beatriz, looked completely exausted at the end of the match.

The exhaustion is more from the aggravation of blowing a match she should win. But next time you are aware of someone who chokes, please tell me before the match. At least I could save some money 😃

[DrO]

We have a deal

[four-leaf]

Sascha Zverev/Tomas Martin Etcheverry over 10.5 games set 1 at 3.40 with Unibet

Etcheverry is going to start serving. I think he will hang on pretty far in the match so the 5-5 in set 1 should be obvious.

[four-leaf]

I'm gonna try the same bet in Rune/Ruud..

Holger Rune/Casper Ruud over 10.5 games set 1 at 3.30 with Unibet

This time 5-5 really should be obvious and even a tie-break. Not mutch separating these two at the moment and it really should be pretty good chances to see at least 5-5 in set 1.

[CzechPunter]

Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic at 1.91 with Unibet

It's not very often that you get to see such odds for Novak, but I think they are entirely justified in this case, as he just hasn't looked all that great so far in this French Open and even during the clay court season overall. The drive is still there and he clearly wants it, but the form isn't, and Alcaraz has looked imperious so far honestly. Usually, you'd feel that Djokovic would get the advantage if this went to the distance, but I don't have that feeling anymore at all.

[sterziyskii]

What do you guys think about Sabalenka and a couple of matches outside of the FO, Lehecka and Thompson. ~2.40 odds with higher bet?

[CzechPunter]

I think Muchova can be a bit dangerous if on song, Sabalenka is one-sided and can be preyed upon.

[four-leaf]

Rune was bloody awful yesterday and also two days before that also and my betting yesterday wasn't mutch to brag about either. Not even Kudla could make it past Lestienne.

[Robinnho]

All said....... and without a rest day before this SF match, I reckon Haddad will be thrashed.  I have observed her slow start in her last 2 matches so I am going with Swiatek -2,5 G in the first set @1,53.

[neilovan]

4 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Rune was bloody awful yesterday and also two days before that also and my betting yesterday wasn't mutch to brag about either. Not even Kudla could make it past Lestienne.

If Jabeur was a chocker, I am not even sure how to start with Sabalenka.

I had 3 of these bombs in a week.

Jarry 1-4 up second set loses the set. 2-4 3rd set loses the set.

Jabeur a set up, 5-5 0-40 with 3 break points. Essentailly 3 match points because at that stage she has lost 3 points on her own serve in the 2nd set.  Loses 5 points in a row and turns into a space cadet.

Sabalenka 5-2 up and wiping the floor with Muchova. Loses 5 straight games and goes to pieces.

 

Players just snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Hard to overcome this nonsense.

Edited June 8, 2023 by neilovan

[neilovan]

27 minutes ago, neilovan said:

If Jabeur was a chocker, I am not even sure how to start with Sabalenka.

I had 3 of these bombs in a week.

Jarry 1-4 up second set loses the set. 2-4 3rd set loses the set.

Jabeur a set up, 5-5 0-40 with 3 break points. Essentailly 3 match points because at that stage she has lost 3 points on her own serve in the 2nd set.  Loses 5 points in a row and turns into a space cadet.

Sabalenka 5-2 up and wiping the floor with Muchova. Loses 5 straight games and goes to pieces.

 

Players just snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Hard to overcome this nonsense.

Can actually add one more to this. Tiafoe losing the match in the 4th set breaker against Khachanov at the Aussie open, after being 6-1 up. At 6-1 he smiled and started celebrating 😬🙄. That one takes the cake (considering it was his birthday).

Sabalenka got everything she deserved her. Running around like a headless 🐔. Probably won't sleep for 4 nights 😵

Can anyone tell me why the tennis commentary is so insufferable. Not sure what feed we get in Southern Africa, but there is a commentator with the surname 'Powers' who is an absolute joke. Awful. He's a score repeater. Just hideous. Who is this  🤡? The second one is Sophie Amaich who is also hopeless, especially in men's matches.

Edited June 8, 2023 by neilovan

[Swami]

I've watched alle the semifinalists play, and based on what I've seen, current forms and the way they played, I have to go with Alcaraz and Zverev to make the final on Sunday: Carlos is too explosive and fast for Nole on this surface, if he doesn't get too emotional he should win his semi; I expected Ruud to win vs. Rune, 'cause Rune was playing really badly in the previous rounds, but Ruud imo cannot compete with the intensity Zverev can bring in with his groundstokes...

[Robinnho]

With the match playing in the gruelling heat at 3 pm Paris time - the hottest so far in this edition according to the weather forecast - I will take the youngster, Alcaraz -1.5 set to beat his (much) older opponent, Kjokovic @1.94.

[neilovan]

Every day delivers 1 kick in the stomach. Alcaraz was in charge when he started cramping. Was back to a 4.4 to 10 favorite. I I managed to bail out of most of my bets, but still lost a little. Cannot catch a break in this tournament.

One thing I have found when betting is this. Say you are going to bet 10 units on a match. Take the bet as 4 x 2.5 units. If you wish to cash out, you have more flexibility. You don't have to cash out the whole 10 units. You could leave 1 of the 4 (2.5) units in play, take the hit and see what happens. I find it gives you more scope for movement in a tough situation.

[CzechPunter]

Well, we have two interesting finals in store, and both should be one-sided according to the odds! But it's obviously fair to say that Muchova has a 2-0 lead in the H2H, and that both matches took place on clay in 2019/2020. Djokovic, meanwhile, has a 4-0 lead over Ruud, and it's 8-0 in terms of sets as well. Any upset fans out there? 

[neilovan]

10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, we have two interesting finals in store, and both should be one-sided according to the odds! But it's obviously fair to say that Muchova has a 2-0 lead in the H2H, and that both matches took place on clay in 2019/2020. Djokovic, meanwhile, has a 4-0 lead over Ruud, and it's 8-0 in terms of sets as well. Any upset fans out there? 

Yesterday was just a strange day. Would have been better for everyone if Alcaraz just quit in the 3rd set. Watched the 2nd match and the Australian commentator (Mark Woodford) was just so clueless. He wanted Zverev to be more proactive and get to the net.  The simple truth is that Zeverev can't do it. And it boils down to one thing....

He has a very poor transition game. It is the part of the game where a player is trying to get off the baseline and get to the net. The mid-court game.

               - Approach shots off the short/er ball (technique and decision making)

               - Half court low volleys

               - Pick up shots when approaching the net

               - Confidence volleying the ball

Zverev is poor at all of these things (for a professional player).  His big problem is that because he is so tall, his center of gravity is higher ... makes his hitting platform and balance more unstable. A shorter (5 11' to 6 '1) player is more compact.

There is also a big distance to cover (from his head to a low ball at his ankles).  Ultimately he is a baseline grinder, and if the serve comes back, better players just out-grind him. 

For me I don't think much of Ruud's game. I am sure he is a nice person but he is the vanilla grinder for me. Repeat of last year, just a different opponent. His game is too similar (from the baseline) to Djokovic, and he has no chance to win.

I don't really know why, but I don't like Swiatek. Does not have one endearing quality for me (maybe I am wrong, won't be the last). Hopefully Muchova can win, but I am not putting money on it. Maybe it has been 1 gut punch too many this tournament.

 

Edited June 10, 2023 by neilovan

[adastra]

Djokovic will probably win, but with odds close to 5.0, Ruud is the play. The odds are so high because of a combination of factors and overall it makes more sense that Ruud is a bit underrated here. Some people might not have watched Alcaraz in the semi and / or the previous matches. He played way below his usual level in the first two sets and still managed to be in a winning position after two sets, having played slightly better overall, despite (according to Alcaraz himself) cramps having started at the end of set 2. Obviously sets 3 and 4 are very misleading, so just looking at the score gives people a wrong impression.

Also, while being a very strong clay court player, this is Djokovic's worst surface and Ruud's best, especially considering the size of the court (Ruud likes some additional space). Additionally, there is a chance Djokovic will have some injury problems in the final, like he did in set 2 against Alcaraz, there was something wrong with his forearm (?) and he had to take a medical timeout. [This shows us how little people pay attention in general, literally nobody mentions this, also on other forums.] With the current odds, there actually would be value on Djokovic if it was the Australian Open oder Wimbledon, but here Ruud is the underrated player. By the way, I disagree that Djokovic and Ruud are similar from the baseline, Ruud hits with way more topspin whereas Djokovic is more balanced in terms of forehand / backhand and a bit more attacking.

Edited June 10, 2023 by adastra

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, adastra said:

Djokovic will probably win, but with odds close to 5.0, Ruud is the play. The odds are so high because of a combination of factors and overall it makes more sense that Ruud is a bit underrated here. Some people might not have watched Alcaraz in the semi and / or the previous matches. He played way below his usual level in the first two sets and still managed to be in a winning position after two sets, having played slightly better overall, despite (according to Alcaraz himself) cramps having started at the end of set 2. Obviously sets 3 and 4 are very misleading, so just looking at the score gives people a wrong impression.

Also, while being a very strong clay court player, this is Djokovic's worst surface and Ruud's best, especially considering the size of the court (Ruud likes some additional space). Additionally, there is a chance Djokovic will have some injury problems in the final, like he did in set 2 against Alcaraz, there was something wrong with his forearm (?) and he had to take a medical timeout. [This shows us how little people pay attention in general, literally nobody mentions this, also on other forums.] With the current odds, there actually would be value on Djokovic if it was the Australian Open oder Wimbledon, but here Ruud is the underrated player. By the way, I disagree that Djokovic and Ruud are similar from the baseline, Ruud hits with way more topspin whereas Djokovic is more balanced in terms of forehand / backhand and a bit more attacking.

I agree with your analysis of Djoko, but he is very sneaky on the serve. He is bouncing the ball 10+ times on each serve, and this slows the tempo of the game down. Not by a huge amount but cumulatively. It's like having a line-out in rugby, where the team throwing the ball in is just slow to form up and do it. It controls the tempo. 

As for the potential injury Djoko knows how to bend the rules in his favor. He does this all the time. He is certainly not the greatest 'sport' on the court, and it's one of multiple reasons that I can't stand him.

Check out stuff from his early career  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tennis-open-djokovic-idUSTRE50Q3VY20090127

 

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Novak Djokovic (-5.5) to beat Casper Ruud at 1.89 with Unibet

I can't really see past Djokovic here, and I think the games handicap is the best option here, as the set handicap is priced dreadfully low. You need a weapon of sorts to bet Djokovic, and, while Ruud isn't entirely weapon-less, he doesn't have anything particularly big in is repertoire, and that will most likely bite him. Nerves could also be an issue.

[delfino]

I am sad for Muchova. Bad reactions in crucial moments cost the title to her. The robot opponent from Poland is finally beatable. Muchova proved that. Let's see the coming future for both.

And something i didn't like from the robot, is that she tried to make politics inside the final. Who are you madam robot to make politics? Anyone who only knows to hit the ball by racket is capable to make politics? Of course not. Ridiculous action by the robot. 

 

[delfino]

I mean the colours of the Ukraine flag at her hat is not provoking political action? I am neutral, actually i hate both USA and Russia, why somebody from sports to provoke my ideas? 

Or it was just a random colour selection? Okay if it was a matter of randomness i leave it here, and i go to check the men's final. 

[CzechPunter]

Well, you're the one starting politics here, so let's calm down!

[delfino]

Yes, okay, but if any sports person, any tennis player thinks that he/she is patriot, then why they don't donate money for the orphans of the Ukraine? Besides, they do NOTHING useful in their lives aside from hitting balls with a racket...What a shameful thing! To hit a ball by a racket and we the idiots pay them tons of money...Or to hit the ball by the foot and the cannibals on stands cheering them..and  they pay them again tons of money...This is unfair and not viable. The end of the world is NEAR, thanks.

I hope Ruud to give the lesson to Djokovic today. I noticed that Djokovic wins his opponents by the mental power and attitude more that any other tennis weapon. For me, Djokovic is not the same player as he was in Australia open. He looks much weaker in my eyes. I hope Ruud not to be scared as Katchanov who lost the tie break second set 7-0!

I think Ruud to win at least a set is stunning, however i have some reasons to compare this final with the 2015 final between Djokovic and Wawrinka.

Let's see...

[delfino]

Unfortunately Ruud is performing like a choker. First time in my life i feel that the women's final was of more quality than the men's final.