French Open 2023

[CzechPunter]

✌️

[CzechPunter]

Men's: https://rg-com-prod.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/RG_2023/Draw_EN_2023_SM_1685026405.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAUXLKHSRBFSBB34M6&Expires=1685083075&Signature=p4DL%2BRQCvXPDk%2FutceJSEa3UGro%3D

Women's: https://rg-com-prod.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/RG_2023/Draw_EN_2023_SD_1685026430.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAUXLKHSRBFSBB34M6&Expires=1685083102&Signature=GBGCse%2FDUGooOHApnYDsJEc8ArU%3D

Alcaraz - Djokovic in the same half!

[Smiles Tennis]

Bolsova to beat Zidansek - 3.00 with Betfair. 

Zidansek had the good run to the SF a couple of years ago but hasn't been tearing it up on the dirt since. Bolsova has mixed results as well but some good wins. Zidansek should be fave but she's a little short for me. 

[four-leaf]

Fognini should beat Felix by some ease

[four-leaf]

If Fogna beats Felix it wouldn't be the first italian he's lost to in RG

[Smiles Tennis]

Pera to beat Kontaveit - 1.94 with Betfair

I'm going with Pera here mainly because Kontaveit hasn't played much tennis. She's played three matches since 8th February and her only win came on clay against Parks which isn't hard. You need fitness and consistency to win on clay and Kontaveit will be rusty. 6-2  Kontaveit leads on tour level titles but none on clay, with Pera getting both her titles on clay. H2H is 1-1 with Pera getting her win last year, on clay as well. 

Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo - 3.5 with Betfair

Burel might be a bit tired after her run to the SF in Strasbourg where she played well before losing to a resurgent Svitolina but she shouldn't be this high. Sorribes Tormo does lead the h2h with the win coming on clay last year but SST was ranked in the #40s then (#132 now). SST reached the final of the 100K Madrid last week but no outstanding wins, Fernandez is so poor right now that it's not hard to beat her and Danilovic smashed SST in the final with SST being a strong fave (1.28). Burel will have the home crowd, she's reached the third round previously (SST best is 2R in 2019) and I really can't see how Burel is 3.5 here.

 

[four-leaf]

I could go along with Pera and maybe Burel but one I'm most defenitely look to is the really tempting price on Fabio Fogna on monday.. Can't keep my eyes off that price or my thoughtsd about how bad Felix has been this season and the apparent rejuvenation of Fabio. His text after the match in Rome when he beat Murray "It's not over" tells me he will take his chances if given to him. I was all over Seppi +2.5 sets when he faced Felix 2021. Seppi even won that time in RG over Felix in round 1 as big underdog at 8.00 times the stake in his last months on tour before he retired last season.

Fogna isn't done yet, I simple can't think of any better chance for him to get his ranking up a bit again than next week. Felix is totally off track.

[four-leaf]

What about if we stick to writing here instead 

[Smiles Tennis]

Masaraova to beat Gauff - 4.7 with Betfair

Some short price faves are going to be beaten. Gauff I think is a good contender for this. She's been off form this clay season, she's defending Final points so might feel the pressure and Masarova is no slouch on clay. Does Gauff win this match 80% of the time in her current form? I don't think so, so Masarova is worth a shot. 

Linette to beat Fernandez - 1.97 with Betfair

Fernandez is playing awful right now. She's attempting to change her serve motion and it's costing her, but she is determined to go with a lower throw and get more bend on it. She will revert to the high throw at times on break points but then carry on with the new style, and losing against anyone half decent. Linette should have this.

Cornet to beat Giorgi - 2.82 on Betfair

Giorgi doesn't prefer playing on clay. She pulled some good results out of the bag in Rome with the crowd behind her but here Cornet will have the crowd in what could be her last appearance here so will be all out to win and backing Giorgi at 1.52 on clay in France against a Frenchwoman who has played 220 matches on clay would make me feel uncomfortable. Giorgi has played just 76 matches on clay. 

[CzechPunter]

Lucas Pouille to beat Jurij Rodionov at 1.71 with Unibet

This is actually a re-match from a couple of days ago, when Pouille lost the first set and then came back strongly, with Rodionov seemingly struggling physically a little bit. Now we're in the longer format, so, if he isn't fully conditioned, he'll struggle even more, and Pouille will once again get all the crowd backing he can get.

[Swami]

Shymanovich + Rublev @1.76

Udvardy really in bad shape after the injury, I don’t see her winning vs. a good qualifier like Shymanovich. Djere is a good clay court player, but in a 3/5 match Rublev should prevail even if he might drop a set or struggling a bit.

[MinellaWorksop]

Day One accumulator (five selections)

S. Tsitsipas / A. Rublev / L. Musetti / Q. Zheng / J. Pegula

Odds of 2.26 with Livescore Bet

[Smiles Tennis]

Sakkari to beat Muchova 1.97 with Betfair. 

 

No time for write up but I think she's fitter and more motivated today. 

[Swami]

Favs I like tomorrow:

Pavlyuchenkova (too powerful for Linda imo)

Putintseva ( never liked Zanevska)

Stearns (Siniakova didn’t play a match since Miami, Stearns pretty consistent in the last matches, I could bet on a 2-0 here)

Kvitova (1.85 vs. Cocciaretto is a lot for a player that made the semis in 2020 and reached the 2R in the last 2 years, I understand she is not in a good shape, but the odds look good here)

Zapata Miralles ( if healthy he should win vs. Schwartzman, who lately is playing pretty bad)

 

Underdogs I like tomorrow:

Yastremska (could win at least 1 set imo)

Marino (not good on clay, but Shnaider is a teenager that never played a match in Europe, talented yes, but the odds look too generous to me here)

Bonaventure (Blinkova had a good run in Strasbourg, but Bonaventure sometimes can be a tough opponent, she might take at least 1 set)

Shang (played good qualis)

Popyrin (he should be fav vs. Karatsev imo)

[MinellaWorksop]

Thankfully the day one fivefold came in, so now onto the next one.

Day Two Accumulator (Fourfold)

C. Alcaraz / J. Ostapenko / M. Vondrousova / C. Garcia

Odds of 1.77 with Coral

[Smiles Tennis]

51 minutes ago, Swami said:

Favs I like tomorrow:

Pavlyuchenkova (too powerful for Linda imo)

Putintseva ( never liked Zanevska)

Stearns (Siniakova didn’t play a match since Miami, Stearns pretty consistent in the last matches, I could bet on a 2-0 here)

Kvitova (1.85 vs. Cocciaretto is a lot for a player that made the semis in 2020 and reached the 2R in the last 2 years, I understand she is not in a good shape, but the odds look good here)

Zapata Miralles ( if healthy he should win vs. Schwartzman, who lately is playing pretty bad)

 

Underdogs I like tomorrow:

Yastremska (could win at least 1 set imo)

Marino (not good on clay, but Shnaider is a teenager that never played a match in Europe, talented yes, but the odds look too generous to me here)

Bonaventure (Blinkova had a good run in Strasbourg, but Bonaventure sometimes can be a tough opponent, she might take at least 1 set)

Shang (played good qualis)

Popyrin (he should be fav vs. Karatsev imo)

Shnaider is 29-10 on clay playing in Europe. Lower levels but has experience of the travel and conditions etc, played at French Open Juniors as well last year. 

Edit: thought I would check Marino on clay at tour level matches. She's 3-5 and five of those were in 2011, the last three are since 2022. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Smiles Tennis

[Swami]

1 hour ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Shnaider is 29-10 on clay playing in Europe. Lower levels but has experience of the travel and conditions etc, played at French Open Juniors as well last year. 

Edit: thought I would check Marino on clay at tour level matches. She's 3-5 and five of those were in 2011, the last three are since 2022. 

Yes, all ITF tournaments, I should have written WTA…

As for Marino, the stats don’t look right, just only in 2022 she is 5-3 on clay, also defeating a good player like Kalinskaya… of course she is not a specialist on this surface and overall a mediocre player, but as I wrote the odds in Shnaider’s favour look too generous to me

[CzechPunter]

Peyton Stearns (-3.5) to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.79 with Unibet

As has already been pointed out, Siniakova hasn't played for quite a while now, while Stearns is an up-and-coming player that's made lots and lots of progress recently. She should be very hungry as well, and I can definitely see her running away with this one.

Dominic Thiem to beat Pedro Cachin at 1.80 with William Hill

The odds have now risen so much that I have to play Thiem over the three set format. He's improved at least somewhat recently, and he should have the fitness and experience edge if this goes on for a while.

Fabio Fognini to beat Felix Auger Aliassime at 3.20 with Unibet

With @four-leaf on this one!

[Smiles Tennis]

Shnaider to beat Marino - 1.58 with Betfair

As mentioned Marino doesn't play much on clay and she's worth opposing here imo. Shnaider is 67-21 on clay with Marino at 29-30, so Shnaider, who has just turned 19, has won more matches on clay in 3 years than Marino has played in her entire career spanning back to 2007. 

Putintseva to beat Zanevska - 1.54 with Betfair

Putintseva is levels above Zanevska. Her defeats on clay this year have been against Riera (probable tank after winning the first set), Gauff, Garcia and Alexandrova. Zanevska has lost 9 of her last 11 matches with her last three defeats coming against an out of form Teichmann, an unranked Strycova and Volynets who can't play on clay. 

Edited May 29, 2023 by Smiles Tennis
Adding another selection

[four-leaf]

@Smiles Tennis to some extension Volynets can play on clay anyhow Zanevska isn't the type of player to get anywhere far in WTA or GS. Zanevska just isn't good enough to beat any player in top 100 on clay.

[Smiles Tennis]

23 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@Smiles Tennis to some extension Volynets can play on clay anyhow Zanevska isn't the type of player to get anywhere far in WTA or GS. Zanevska just isn't good enough to beat any player in top 100 on clay.

I just looked at WTA matches. She's terrible. 

[four-leaf]

1 minute ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I just looked at WTA matches. She's terrible. 

You are misreading that, Volynets is learning, she is not terrible. She's defenitely improving.

[Smiles Tennis]

21 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

You are misreading that, Volynets is learning, she is not terrible. She's defenitely improving.

I will wait to see it. She only plays 31% or so of her matches on clay, against players currently ranked 100-200 she's only 8-10 and lost 3 of her last 5 of which was odds on fave for all of them. She needs to start regularly dispatching of those and winning some WTA matches before I consider her not terrible. I just go by results. 

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I will wait to see it. She only plays 31% or so of her matches on clay, against players currently ranked 100-200 she's only 8-10 and lost 3 of her last 5 of which was odds on fave for all of them. She needs to start regularly dispatching of those and winning some WTA matches before I consider her not terrible. I just go by results. 

Ye that's your problem then if you just go by results. You need another mindset about how you look at players.

[Smiles Tennis]

20 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Ye that's your problem then if you just go by results. You need another mindset about how you look at players.

I make a profit though.  When I use opinion more than stats I make mistakes.  Results gets me profits for now but happy to change if it stops working. 

[Swami]

Don’t like much tomorrow… I’ll bet on Stricker @3.5 vs. Paul, the courts are really slow and the American is not playing is best tennis lately

 

Edit: Also Seyboth Wild + 8.5 @1.80 vs. Medvedev, I like the Brazilian, he has nothing to lose and maybe will be able to take some games in this match

Edited May 29, 2023 by Swami

[Swami]

9 hours ago, four-leaf said:

You are misreading that, Volynets is learning, she is not terrible. She's defenitely improving.

As the courts are becoming slower and slower, the Americans are starting to practise and play more on clay, something they definitely didn’t do in the past. If I’m not mistaken, Rublev recently highlighted the importance of playing on clay because is the surface where you can learn more. All the big 3, Roger, Rafa and Nole, come from countries where you play a lot on clay since you are a child

[CzechPunter]

Today doesn't seem to be anywhere near as interesting!

Selena Janicijevic to beat Oceane Dodin at 2.40 with Unibet

Janicijevic managed to beat Dodin in three sets in Strasbourg just a couple of days ago, and 2.40 seems like a big price for her to repeat that feat. Dodin has been subpar all season long, really, and the slower the clay, the worse her performances.

[neilovan]

Hi All,

Have not posted forever. Actually been working pretty hard.

Six players I do like today. Two are low low priced.

F. Cerundolo and Nicolas Jarry. Both are in an exceptional place. Very confident on their favorite surface. Cerundolo plays Munar, who he destroyed at the Argentina Open in Feb. Jarry is on a seriously good run, beating Dimitrov, Zverev, Ruud and Lajovic in Geneva last week. His opponent Dellien is on a bad run, losing plenty, behind a very weak serve.

My 3rd player is Azarenka to beat Andreescu. An interesting article regarding Andreescu's state of mind.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/may/27/bianca-andreescu-interview-tennis-french-open

Some of these big name players are just not 'there' mentally. Konteveit, Pliskova, Kvitova, Andreescu are all very well off financially. The 1st 3 all lost already, and they played poorly. Pliskova was useless against Stephens, Tactically just awful. Konteveit not much better against Pera. Like a zombie on the court, with no preparation. , Kvitova was awful against Bronzetti yesterday. At the most important times just so wild. She hit some balls in the back fence, and is as slow as a cart horse.  She makes Harry Maguire look fast, which is saying something.

I think a motivated Azarenka wins, probably easily after a close 1st set, against someone she matches up well with.

#4 is Krecikova who plays Lesia Tsurenko. Tsurenko is a reasonable player, but her serve is just so weak. Krecikova looks solid. She is a consistent winner, especially in early rounds of majors.

 Azarenka and Krecikova as a double almost even money.

As a 4 legged bet the odds are 2 to 1.

 

My 5th pick is Clara Burel to beat Sorribes Tormo. I watched quite a few of the Strasbourg matches, and Burel played very well. She is a former junior world #1, and will have strong home support. She is small in stature but is figuring out how to beat, bigger stronger (physically) players. She hits a looping, deep ball which will be difficult, especially on a warm Summer day. She beat Pera, Cirstea and Kanepi in Strasbourg, and lost in 3 to Svitolina.

 

My 6th pick is Linda Noskova to beat Danka Kovinic. Kovinic coming off a retirement against Krecikova in the Italian Open (while being thrashed 6-2 4-1), probably still has a slight injury worry. Call me a cynic but she is Just in Paris to collect the 1st round losers cheque.

 

Good luck today.

Edited May 30, 2023 by neilovan

[Smiles Tennis]

On holiday this week so my research is limited to a quick look when the kids are in bed before I hit the sack. 

Ostapenko to beat Stearns - 1.44 with Betfair

Pegula to beat Giorgi - 1.39 with Betfair

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Samsonova - 3.05 with Betfair

Kasatkina to beat Vondrousova - 3.2 with Betfair