French Open 2023

[CzechPunter]

Fabio Fognini to beat Jason Kubler at 1.57 with William Hill

Backing Fognini yet again, Kubler tends to underperform on slow clay and his fitness tends to be an issue as well these days, which makes me worried, especially when put together with his long last round match.

Denis Shapovalov to beat Matteo Arnaldi at 2.10 with William Hill

Look - I'm not particularly big on Shapovalov, but he did overcome a lot of adversity in R1, and that's something that could boost his confidence and just help him out in general going forward. Moreover, Arnaldi is by no means a big opponent, and doesn't have a lot of experience facing "big names" in Grand Slams - and yeah, I think that Shapo still is a big name of sorts. At odds against, this looks worth a shot, but not if it drops!

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Peyton Stearns at 1.40 with William Hill

I did back Stearns in the first round, but she had some issue against the very "undercooked" Siniakova, and this will be a major step up for her that I don't think she'll be able to get through. Ostapenko had an easy match in the first round and looked fresh and collected.

[888888]

Anyone on Borges to beat Schawrtzman?? 

 

Schawrtman having a bad season , Borges very decent player , I don't understand why Schawrt is a small favorite.

[neilovan]

Real bizarre day yesterday. I won some in the end but Krejcikova and Azarenka hurt. Azarenka 6-2 3-1 and 40-15, up somehow manages to lose, while Krejicokva is 3-0 up 2nd set with break points and also loses 5 of the next 6 games. Krejcikova just had a case of nerves, very similar to Bencic. 

Not going crazy today. Just looking for  2x5 low priced favorites who can get the job done.

 Multibet (5)3.84

 

Svitolina, Elina1.26

Pegula, Jessica1.35

Garcia, Caroline1.37

Begu, Irina-Camelia1.17

Avanesyan, Elina1.41

Svitolina is a top player. She looks confident and strong. She will go deep here.

Pgeula just has too much power for a 1 dimensional Giorgi.

Garcia played very well against a really tough 1st round opponent. Has way too much here in a much easier match.

Begu just too strong.

Very impressed with Avanesyan. Had excellent composure and played brilliantly against Bencic.

 

Have one other 5 legged bet

Ostapenko, Jelena 1.37
Zheng, Qinwen 1.30

Hurkacz, Hubert 1.41

Bautista Agut, Roberto 1.39

Musetti, Lorenzo 1.26

Bautista Agut is just such an underrated player. He has tremendous stamina and is a real grinder.

Hurkacz has a stronger game (of very similar styles to Griekspoor).

Ostapenko was messing around with Martincova in 1st round. Was 5-1 down in the second and then won 6 games in a row to take it 7-5

Musetti has too much talent and ability for Schevchenko.

 

Will take all 10 as singles (looking for 8 wins minimum) as well as taking 2 x 5 legged doubles

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by neilovan

[neilovan]

33 minutes ago, 888888 said:

Anyone on Borges to beat Schawrtzman?? 

 

Schawrtman having a bad season , Borges very decent player , I don't understand why Schawrt is a small favorite.

Schwartzman powered back after losing the 1st 2 sets, and was a very strong finisher.  I think he will gain confidence and get better.

[four-leaf]

41 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Schwartzman powered back after losing the 1st 2 sets, and was a very strong finisher.  I think he will gain confidence and get better.

Agree, could be very risky going against Schwartzman going forward as it seems he's been going pretty well lately. Last month that is.

[neilovan]

A poor day today. Garcia is just clueless imo. If you are the superior player, then longer rallies should favor you. Why stand in so close that every return becomes a lottery? Just doing nothing other than remove your own advantage. 

 

Just one pick tommorow. Tiafoe over Karatsev. On pedigree, this matchup is a no contest.

[Smiles Tennis]

For those following along with my picks,  for May all the picks posted here ended as:

46 Selections 

44 points staked (2 void)

10.59 points profit

ROI 24.1%

Average odds (after 2% betfair commission) 2.33.

I'll try and find some picks for tomorrow but as mentioned I'm on holiday and the WiFi is terrible and keeps cutting out so can't use my software for all the stats. 

[Smiles Tennis]

Tomorrow's selections.

Martic to beat Sorribes Tormo - 1.91 with Betfair

Parry to beat Andreeva - 3.35 with Betfair

Pera to beat Vekic - 2.42 with Betfair

Davis to beat Tsurenko - 2.76 with Betfair

 

[CzechPunter]

Alex De Minaur to beat Tomas Etcheverry at 1.80 with William Hill

De Minaur is no clay court specialist, and Etcheverry is, but the Aussie is competent on all the surfaces and I think he's still better, especially after playing himself into a decent enough form recently. There will be plenty of long rallies in this one, and I like De Minaur's condition a bit more honestly, so that's the edge that should hopefully carry him through.

Francisco Cerundolo to beat Yannick Hanfmann at 1.50 with William Hill

Hanfmann had an exhausting epic in the first round, and one that even had plenty of ups and downs, both mentally and physically. Cerundolo has been extremely solid recently, and I think he should just take this quite comfortably if he turns up in a fine enough form.

Jasmine Paolini to beat Olga Danilovic at 2.09 with Pinnacle

Once again, I'm going against Danilovic after successfully backing Watson to cover the handicap against her during the qualifiers. She's still holding up physically by all accounts, but Paolini is a nightmare match-up to test her stamina, and a very competent clay court player in all regards as well. She'll make Danilovic play plenty of extra shots, which is something that worked against her in the past, so everything above about 1.90 looks value to me here.

[Robinnho]

9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Francisco Cerundolo to beat Yannick Hanfmann at 1.50 with William Hill

Hanfmann had an exhausting epic in the first round, and one that even had plenty of ups and downs, both mentally and physically. Cerundolo has been extremely solid recently, and I think he should just take this quite comfortably if he turns up in a fine enough form.

Jasmine Paolini to beat Olga Danilovic at 2.09 with Pinnacle

Once again, I'm going against Danilovic after successfully backing Watson to cover the handicap against her during the qualifiers. She's still holding up physically by all accounts, but Paolini is a nightmare match-up to test her stamina, and a very competent clay court player in all regards as well. She'll make Danilovic play plenty of extra shots, which is something that worked against her in the past, so everything above about 1.90 looks value to me here.

As you have reasoned, I bet Cerrundolo -1.5 set to beat Hanfmann with better odds.

As for Paolini-Danilovic, I will give a miss because I think Paolini has reached  her peak in this clay swing while Danilova is still reaching her best...... thus for me is a 40-60 to Paolini. 

[Smiles Tennis]

Friday's picks,  I'll be home from holiday tomorrow afternoon so will have more time.

Andreeva to beat Gauff 2.24 

Potapova to beat Pavlyuchenkova 1.67

Svitolina to beat Blinkova 1.51

[adastra]

Is Cerundolo slightly injured or something? In terms of odds, Fritz is the slight favourite, but I think it should be the other way around.

[Swami]

Maybe Putintseva is worth a shot… it looks like Stephens is playing well, but Putintseva can be a very tough opponent, tougher than Pliskova or Gracheva, and that 2.60 is tempting…

Also Ofner as underdog vs. Fognini is interesting, first time in the tournament that Fabio plays against a clay specialist, I don’t see an easy match for him here and he is not famous for consistency, if he loses his pace he might go out of the match quickly 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Swami

[Smiles Tennis]

Putintseva to beat Stephens 2.74 with Betfair

[CzechPunter]

@adastra Fritz has been really classy recently, much improved in every respect, but this certainly won't be an easy match for him.

I'm backing Fognini to beat Ofner at 1.73 with William Hill, he seems to be the best he's been for quite a while, and this might very well be some sort of a swan song tournament for him as well. 

On the WTA side of things, I like Avanesyan to beat Tauson at 2.89 with Pinnacle. It's such a huge price, and I've heard nothing but praise for Avanesyan for her two wins in the early rounds. She isn't the favourite, of course, but Tauson tends to have off-days as well, and seems a bit overrated in this particular spot.

[amity]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

@adastra Fritz has been really classy recently, much improved in every respect, but this certainly won't be an easy match for him.

I'm backing Fognini to beat Ofner at 1.73 with William Hill, he seems to be the best he's been for quite a while, and this might very well be some sort of a swan song tournament for him as well. 

On the WTA side of things, I like Avanesyan to beat Tauson at 2.89 with Pinnacle. It's such a huge price, and I've heard nothing but praise for Avanesyan for her two wins in the early rounds. She isn't the favourite, of course, but Tauson tends to have off-days as well, and seems a bit overrated in this particular spot.

Fritz could face a hostile reception in his next match, despite not playing against a French opponent. The crowd won't forget his shushing of them last time out! 😆

[neilovan]

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

@adastra Fritz has been really classy recently, much improved in every respect, but this certainly won't be an easy match for him.

I'm backing Fognini to beat Ofner at 1.73 with William Hill, he seems to be the best he's been for quite a while, and this might very well be some sort of a swan song tournament for him as well. 

On the WTA side of things, I like Avanesyan to beat Tauson at 2.89 with Pinnacle. It's such a huge price, and I've heard nothing but praise for Avanesyan for her two wins in the early rounds. She isn't the favourite, of course, but Tauson tends to have off-days as well, and seems a bit overrated in this particular spot.

I watched her match against Bencic and she was excellent. Had real composure and hit the ball exceptionally well. Bencic just folded up under the pressure.

[neilovan]

I'm not really impressed with Tsitsipas. Sure he is a great player, but there is something just lacking. Jeri Vesely, playing on a medical comeback exemption ran him quite close, and a motivated, confident Schwartzman is waaaay better than Vesely.

I don't think Tsitsipas comes near rolling over Schwartzman. Schwartzman looks solid, playing well, with confidence. Somewhat of an outside shot here, but I am taking him for the win. If his mind is right (which it is), he is a very very tough customer on clay.

I'm going with the above  with Norrie to beat Musetti. Last time out Norrie won the 1st and lost in 3. Not betting much here, but it could be a day of upsets. At 30+ to 1 I think it is worth a small bet.

 

Will add the current match in progress, Sonego to beat Rublev, who could choke in the 5th. Gives about 50 to 1.

Edited June 2, 2023 by neilovan

[Smiles Tennis]

French Open - Tsurenko to beat Andreescu - 2.26 with Betfair

Andreescu is in the third round at Roland Garros for the first time. She's only 12-9 on clay in WTA matches and lost to Xiyu Wang a few weeks ago.  She did battle well against Azarenka but Azarenka hasn't been fit and can always throw a random crap performance in. 

Tsurenko is 32-43 on clay at WTA level but is 7-3 this year and her defeats came against Swiatek, Kasatkina and Ons who are all excellent clay courters. I'm not sure if Andreescu will reach the level needed to win unless Tsurenko has an off day but she's already beaten Krejcikova, Pera and Svitolina recently who are all decent on the dirt. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Ons Jabeur (-1.5 sets) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.81 with Unibet

Alright, let's go against Danilovic yet again. Her game was on the verge of collapsing against Paolini, but the Italian was really poor, and Jabeur also has some deadly drop shots at her disposal, which should work like a charm against Danilovic, who is obviously not the best mover with her height. The odds for the outright win are rather poor, so I'm going with the 2-0 bet instead.

Cori Gauff to beat Mirra Andreeva at 1.80 with BetVictor

Well, I honestly think that Andreeva isn't quite ready just yet. She will be soon, but Gauff should prevail here with her athleticism and experience. She's a top player by all accounts, and she's been here and done that.

[neilovan]

7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Ons Jabeur (-1.5 sets) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.81 with Unibet

Alright, let's go against Danilovic yet again. Her game was on the verge of collapsing against Paolini, but the Italian was really poor, and Jabeur also has some deadly drop shots at her disposal, which should work like a charm against Danilovic, who is obviously not the best mover with her height. The odds for the outright win are rather poor, so I'm going with the 2-0 bet instead.

Cori Gauff to beat Mirra Andreeva at 1.80 with BetVictor

Well, I honestly think that Andreeva isn't quite ready just yet. She will be soon, but Gauff should prevail here with her athleticism and experience. She's a top player by all accounts, and she's been here and done that.

I like your write up but I think Gauff has a major major weakness with the forehand. At this level, it is a very weak shot. She has no confidence in it, and the fundamentals are all wrong. In a tough match, the weakest shot goes to pieces first, and it should/will be targeted relentlessly today. I would be staying away from her, because this shot can/probably will knock her out.

Andreeva has won 12 of her last 14 sets. At the French she has won10/10 with 7 of them being 6-2 or better. 

Edited June 3, 2023 by neilovan

[neilovan]

11 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

French Open - Tsurenko to beat Andreescu - 2.26 with Betfair

Andreescu is in the third round at Roland Garros for the first time. She's only 12-9 on clay in WTA matches and lost to Xiyu Wang a few weeks ago.  She did battle well against Azarenka but Azarenka hasn't been fit and can always throw a random crap performance in. 

Tsurenko is 32-43 on clay at WTA level but is 7-3 this year and her defeats came against Swiatek, Kasatkina and Ons who are all excellent clay courters. I'm not sure if Andreescu will reach the level needed to win unless Tsurenko has an off day but she's already beaten Krejcikova, Pera and Svitolina recently who are all decent on the dirt. 

 

The Andreescu v Azarenka was a big match for me, so I was watching closely. Azarenka 6-2, 3-1 40-15 (2 serve break points for a double break)  ... game over! At that point Andreescu just relaxed, had nothing to lose. She played really well and  showed her true ability. Her confidence went up and she was in control. Azarenka did not play badly, she was just outplayed, and lost a few big points. 

For me Tsurenko also caught those opponents at the right time. All three undercooked and not ready for the clay season. Essentially arriving late (not so much Svitolina), and hoping to get through the 1st round and gain game time. If Andreescu plays similar to set 2 and 3 against Azarenka, this only has one outcome.

 

I think her starting odds of 1.72 means that you have some scope to take this bet in play. If she starts well with an early break, you will probably get her at 1.45 or around 1.4 which is fine. That is my strategy here for a big bet. Just want to see the early momentum.

Edited June 3, 2023 by neilovan

[neilovan]

I like 4 low priced favorites today. Will take them all in a quad which should give 18 to 10.

 

Nicolas Jarry - in the form of his life.  Paul, Dimitrov, Zverev and Ruud all top ranked defeated players since 5/22/2023 . No contest here against Giron.

Alexander Zverev to beat Francis Tiafoe. Zverev owns Tiafoe at this point having a 6-1 record against him. He hit the ball really well against Molcan the other night, and those conditions seem to suite him. Clay is also a game of patience and I thing he outperforms Tiafoe in this department.

Rybakina to beat Sorribes Tormo.  Rybakina just has the best serve in woman's tennis. It is such a strong weapon that it sets up all other aspects of her game. Every serve game from her is a battery of 1-2 punches. Short points, behind the serve that end in her favor. One way traffic here.

Ons Jabeur to beat Danilovic. I watched the Danilovic v Paolini match. Was a low quality, scrappy affair. Not sure how much of it Danilovic won, rather than Paolini lost. I don't think she can step up to the required level, against a quality opponent who is playing on her best surface.

Edited June 3, 2023 by neilovan

[neilovan]

On 6/2/2023 at 3:33 AM, adastra said:

Is Cerundolo slightly injured or something? In terms of odds, Fritz is the slight favourite, but I think it should be the other way around.

Not much between these players, but Cerundolo can get down on himself. Fritz is mentally very tough. He's not gonna beat himself, while Cerundolo might.

[neilovan]

I am curious as to opinion on the Cocciaretto v Pera match. My feeling is that Pera wins, but am interested in all opinions.

I have a small bet that works out at 6.71 . Hardly breaking the bank, but I did not think much of Cocciareto.  Sure she beat Kvitova, but Kvitova played like a disinterested zombie (She has won 36$ million so lack of motivation is a factor). Pera has already faced two dangerous opponents in Vekic and Konteveit. For me this matchup against Cocciaretto looks to be much easier. 

 Multibet (3) 6.71

Andreeva, Mirra 2.01
Andreeva, Mirra v Gauff, Coco
Winner
French Open Women Singles
2023-06-03 13:00

Andreescu, Bianca 1.67
Andreescu, Bianca v Tsurenko, Lesia
Winner
French Open Women Singles
2023-06-03 14:15

Pera, Bernarda 2.00
Cocciaretto, Elisabetta v Pera, Bernarda
Winner
French Open Women Singles
2023-06-03 14:15

Edited June 3, 2023 by neilovan

[Smiles Tennis]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

The Andreescu v Azarenka was a big match for me, so I was watching closely. Azarenka 6-2, 3-1 40-15 (2 serve break points for a double break)  ... game over! At that point Andreescu just relaxed, had nothing to lose. She played really well and  showed her true ability. Her confidence went up and she was in control. Azarenka did not play badly, she was just outplayed, and lost a few big points. 

For me Tsurenko also caught those opponents at the right time. All three undercooked and not ready for the clay season. Essentially arriving late (not so much Svitolina), and hoping to get through the 1st round and gain game time. If Andreescu plays similar to set 2 and 3 against Azarenka, this only has one outcome.

 

I think her starting odds of 1.72 means that you have some scope to take this bet in play. If she starts well with an early break, you will probably get her at 1.45 or around 1.4 which is fine. That is my strategy here for a big bet. Just want to see the early momentum.

I have only recently started watching tennis again so wasn't sure of the circumstances around Tsurenko's other wins so thanks for the info. I don't usually like backing shorter odds and have been burned many times in the past backing shorter odds after an early break so tend to avoid that now. 

Andreescu is 3-4 on clay when favourite and losing the first set so could be an opportunity as well if she loses the first set. 

[neilovan]

10 minutes ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I have only recently started watching tennis again so wasn't sure of the circumstances around Tsurenko's other wins so thanks for the info. I don't usually like backing shorter odds and have been burned many times in the past backing shorter odds after an early break so tend to avoid that now. 

Andreescu is 3-4 on clay when favourite and losing the first set so could be an opportunity as well if she loses the first set. 

Most of the players hate the drudge of travel, hotels, practice, hotel food, taxi's. It is endless (Jan to late Nov) and brutal.  So they like to arrive as late as possible, try and wing it against (hopefully) a weaker opponent, and find their fitness and legs on the match court. So they are vulnerable in the first matches after a long flight. Americans also very vulnerable after travel, especially in Europe, because it feels strange for them.  

I think with the shorter odds, you can find players that are exceptional front runners. I don't have access to match scores (showing each game played), only set scores, so I can't evaluate those who go, say 3-1 or 4-1 up. I can only really evaluate front runners by how they do 1st set.

Edited June 3, 2023 by neilovan

[Smiles Tennis]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

Most of the players hate the drudge of travel, hotels, practice, hotel food, taxi's. It is endless (Jan to late Nov) and brutal.  So they like to arrive as late as possible, try and wing it against (hopefully) a weaker opponent, and find their fitness and legs on the match court. So they are vulnerable in the first matches after a long flight. Americans also very vulnerable after travel, especially in Europe, because it feels strange for them.  

I think with the shorter odds, you can find players that are exceptional front runners. I don't have access to match scores (showing each game played), only set scores, so I can't evaluate those who go, say 3-1 or 4-1 up. I can only really evaluate front runners by how they do 1st set.

If you want any details for matches for 3-1, 4-1 etc for certain players let me know. I can help you as long as it isn't a list of 100 matches as I'll need to check individually.  But if you're after a few bits I'm happy to help. 

[adastra]

Thanks to Cerundolo, my betting day was saved! To be fair, sets 3 and 4 could have gone either way. However, the odds I got (average of 2.23, after exchange commissions) were suspiciously high (would have taken 2.00 happily!), and in such a case quite often you have overlooked something, typically an injury, but maybe it just wasn't the case here.

I'm having an excellent French Open so far, actually won all days, albeit most of the time with a relatively small profit. In terms of the remaining two matches today, I don't have any bets. Almost decided to bet on Zverev when the odds were closer to 1.50. Tiafoe is a favourable matchup for him, but I'm still not fully convinced that Zverev has reached a level similar to last year's French Open yet. So, I did not pull the trigger and with the current odds, this is a no-bet match for me. Also, Dimitrov-Altmaier seems to have rather sharp odds; rooting for Dimitrov, though, as I do have an outright bet with very high odds on him lol.

[Smiles Tennis]

Pavlyuchenkova to beat Mertens - 1.98 with Betfair

Pav is getting some good minutes under her belt now in her comeback and will be looking to push on here. Mertens is 3-9 in Grand Slam 4th round matches with all her wins coming on HC, her favourite surface. She fully deserved to beat Pegula but Pegula was way off of her usual standard and Mertens hit levels she hadn't hit for a long time. She will need to continue to stay at the high level with her serving and against Pav who is 7-2 in 4th round GS matches and a previous finalist here before her injury, I think it will be too big a task and Pav has an edge here so is a value price. 

Muchova to beat Avanesyan 2-0 - 1.75 with Betfair

Avanesyan on a dream run as a lucky loser but Tauson should have beaten her if she didn't make so many errors. Muchova is fit and playing well, is 3-1 in GS 4th Rounds albeit on faster surfaces but she's no stranger to a big match and the nerves will get to Avanesyan meaning an easy 2-0 win for Muchova. 

Svitolina to beat Kasatkina - 2.6 with Betfair

Kasatkina has SF points to defend from last year and has played well beating Stearns (not too hard) and a good win against Vondrousova. Svitolina is flying on her comeback with the title in Strasbourg and wins against Trevisan and Blinkova again here. She's on an 8 match win streak and it might catch up with her soon but at 2.6 she has to be worth a shot here. Kasatkina does overperform a little when at these odds, winning 70% instead of the expected 62% but she's lost 3 of her last 6 at these odds and Svitolina leads the head to head 6-0 so that will surely play on her mind if things get tight. 

Stephens vs Sabalenka - Number of sets? Three - 3.25 with Betfair

Stephens loves playing here, she's played herself into some decent form in recent weeks and seems motivated in the press conferences. Sabalenka should have this but it is on the slow clay and although she leads Stephens in the head to head 3-0, all three matches have gone to three sets, so 3.25 for a three set result seems value to me.