Tennis Tips - March 1 - March 7

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

There's plenty of action this week. For ATP, we have Buenos Aires and Rotterdam. For WTA, we have Lyon and Doha. There are three Challenger events as well, though two are more or less re-runs from last week. I'll go ahead with a pick and I hope others will join me soon!

Ramkumar Ramanathan to beat Hugo Grenier at 2.06 with Pinnacle

I think the wrong guy is favoured here, honestly. I have to admit that I didn't see Grenier lately, but I did see Ramanathan twice this season, against Bagnis in the AO qualifiers and against Daniel last week in Singapore. I liked him both times - well, not exactly liked for the ATP level, but for a very decent Challenger standard. When his serve is working, he can trouble even way better players than Grenier. Not a lock by any stretch, but I think Ramanathan should be around 1.75 here.

[darko08]

Arantxa Rus (-2.5 Games) to beat Xiyu Wang at 1.80 with bet365

At first, I have to say that these odds are influenced by 2 things. The first one is that Rus lost against her recently in Abu Dhabi (6-3, 3-6, 6-4) and the second one is that Rus is still winless in 2021 (X.Wang, Venus and Swiatek). Despite that, I think Rus should win this match. Her game suits really well on hard indoor courts (82-45) while Wang has never won a match on this surface as a professional. Rus beat her easily in December 2020 in Dubai (6-1, 6-3). Rus is better player and IMO the match that reflects the real difference between them is the match they played in Dubai, not the last one. I think proper odds should be 1.40, not 1.60. 

[Torque]

I can't see why Cecchinato is favourite to beat Djere in Buenos Aires, bearing in mind that he lost the last time they played each other which is fairly recent. It could be because Djere hasn't won a match so far this year, but then he hasn't played on clay yet which is his favourite surface. Cecchinato is hardly in great form either, with just one win over Dellien last week to show for his efforts this season. Although playing last week might give Cecchinato some sort of advantage, Djere tends to do well during this clay swing so I'll be backing him at odds against. 

One favourite I do like though is Fucsovics against Opelka in Rotterdam. He has a better all-round game than Opelka who is all about serve, and his two wins in qualifying are a plus. He should be able to hold serve easily enough as Opelka is so limited on return, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't get some looks on the Opelka serve as he's a better player than many give him credit for. So far this year Opelka has only managed to beat veterans Stakhovsky and Lu and hasn't really got going yet, and although indoor conditions could be just what he needs to start turning a corner I think the only way he wins this is via tie-breaks and so I'd rather back Fucsovics.

15pts Djere to beat Cecchinato @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook

40pts Fucsovics to beat Opelka @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook

[CzechPunter]

Seconding the Fucsovics tip! Getting on that myself - Fucsovics to beat Opelka at 1.73 with William Hill.

[liquidglass]

Koepfer vs Tirante

I do not think the rankings of both players is of any importance in this match up as there are a lot of other angles that we can view this from. First koepfer can be very dangerous on clay as can be seen from his record towards the end of 2020. he has only played one match on clay this year and I believe he can be taken on partially or perhaps fully. Tirante is the young home prospect who mainly plies his trade on clay although it has to be said that he is also a very good hard court player, winning over 80% of his matches last year. He is still only 19 in the developmental stage of his career and I really think he is on the right path. He has already played six matches this year with a 3/3 record. However I think his recent loss to Facundo Bagnis can be used as a yardstick to measure what can be expected from him today. Also I feel as a youngster in the same age bracket, he would have noted what Cerundolo did yesterday and aim to draw inspiration from it. While i very much believe that he is a good bet to win the match, I will opt for Tirante to win a set at 4/9 since the object of this exercise is to ensure that your capital stays in tact. Good luck!!!

Edited March 1, 2021 by liquidglass

[darko08]

Tauson beating Alexandrova in straight sets on indoors... that's a big step

[Torque]

56 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Tauson beating Alexandrova in straight sets on indoors... that's a big step

Just noticed that. Definitely stands out and Tauson is one to watch this season.

[WinningTipster]

 

1 pick for the ATP Rotterdam match:

LAJOVIC +6 GAMES HANDICAP OVER MEDVEDEV @ 1.57 at pinnacle
In other circumstances, surely an easy win for Medvedev but after a long Australian Open, I think Medvedev will not try his best. Lajovic has a good serve to make it a relatively close match.

 

[CzechPunter]

Lukas Klein to beat Andrej Martin at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I liked Klein in the qualifying and I actually had no idea that he holds a 3-0 record against Martin in the H2H department. That's why I like him at this price here. He's aggressive and he's used to the courts by now after beating 3 solid opponents in Collarini, Seyboth Wild and Escobedo.

[Robinnho]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Lukas Klein to beat Andrej Martin at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I liked Klein in the qualifying and I actually had no idea that he holds a 3-0 record against Martin in the H2H department. That's why I like him at this price here. He's aggressive and he's used to the courts by now after beating 3 solid opponents in Collarini, Seyboth Wild and Escobedo.

Klein will be playing his 4th match in as many days.  Do you think that he might be tired or suffering from fatigue especially today he is playing an early match?

[CzechPunter]

I don't believe that this will be a major factor. He plays aggressively, not your typical long rallies.

[Robinnho]

8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Lukas Klein to beat Andrej Martin at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I liked Klein in the qualifying and I actually had no idea that he holds a 3-0 record against Martin in the H2H department. That's why I like him at this price here. He's aggressive and he's used to the courts by now after beating 3 solid opponents in Collarini, Seyboth Wild and Escobedo.

Congrats!

[CzechPunter]

Ramkumar Ramanathan (+1.5 sets) to beat Frederico Ferreira Silva at 1.97 with Sbobet

I'm happy to back Ramanthan once again. He's a glass cannon, don't get me wrong, he can be all over the place. When it clicks, though, he can take out even way better players and Silva is no world beater. He's so consistent that I don't like the match odds that much, but I'll take Ramanathan to take a set.

[vladisimo2]

Anything you guys like in Rotterdam today ? I'm literaly not sure on any match . I was looking to take de minaur over nishikori , but kei has a bit of a resurgence and if he plays well he can definetly take alex out. Rublev should destroy murray ,but I'm somehow still scared to bet even now against andy even if he is 40% of what he once was..

[vladisimo2]

Went with zverev to beat bublik (1,19)- I think these courts suit zverev better, and the only reason I didn't go with over 19,5 games is bublik's inconsistency.

Rublev to beat murray 2-0(1,42 I think)- I've watched andy lately , he seemed tired against haase and as long as rublev doesn't choke I can't see murray keeping up at this point with the onslaught from andrey.

[888888]

Ramos-Vinolas last six games in eight days all ended 2-1, he won five lost one, he played yesterday against ranked 400th winning 2-1 , I think betting against him today @1.9 on Koepfer is good , even if Koepfer is very average it could be a good spot for Ramos to loose.

 

Kecmanovic - Monteiro , few days ago they both played against Cerundolo they both lost 2-1 , so I feel @2.45 on Kecmanovic is not bad.

 

of course just opinions without in depth knowledge of the players, however usually even with long analysis picks lose one time out of two so in the end it's the same.

Edited March 3, 2021 by 888888

[vladisimo2]

yep , I burned myself. Should have went with over 19,5, bublik actualy showed up for the match.

[liquidglass]

4 hours ago, vladisimo2 said:

Went with zverev to beat bublik (1,19)- I think these courts suit zverev better, and the only reason I didn't go with over 19,5 games is bublik's inconsistency.

Rublev to beat murray 2-0(1,42 I think)- I've watched andy lately , he seemed tired against haase and as long as rublev doesn't choke I can't see murray keeping up at this point with the onslaught from andrey.

What appealed to me most from your comment above was (1,42 I think) and (He seemed tired) which really does not sound like the Murray that I know. In fact Murray and Djokovic are two players that are experts at communicating reverse body languages in very strange ways. One minute they may look dead, and next minute they are in the 5th set waxing strong. Murray is also one of the craftiest players on court when it comes down to shot shot selection - against Rublev who up to this point in his career has been hindered by good court wisdom. The other player I must mention is Auger Aliassime, who has hitherto been held back by court craft deficiency. They both lead the brainless ball-bashing department. (sorry).

Do notget me wrong here, Rublev might end up beating Murray 2-0 as you say, but this certainly is the type of match that every punter should want to get on from the multifarious money making angles available. This really in my opinion is similar to the Gerasimov/Tsitsipas match yesterday. Gerasimov was originally priced from suspected tiredness and had ended up negating his price by recovering quickly in the 2 days prior. Murray will remember their only head to head in 2017 and know that he can still beat this guy. I will go the safe route and take Murray @ +5.5 games handicap 1/2. That really seems mouth-watering enough for me. Good luck.  

[CzechPunter]

Frances Tiafoe to beat Jaume Munar at 1.81 with Unibet

I saw both Tiafoe against Bagnis and Munar against Diaz Acosta and I liked Tiafoe way bit more. Munar is the more natural clay courter, but he seemed to lack the punch to me in his match and Tiafoe looks to be riding the wave after giving Djokovic a good match. The main reason for this bet is what I saw, however.

[AgaRadwanska]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Frances Tiafoe to beat Jaume Munar at 1.81 with Unibet

I saw both Tiafoe against Bagnis and Munar against Diaz Acosta and I liked Tiafoe way bit more. Munar is the more natural clay courter, but he seemed to lack the punch to me in his match and Tiafoe looks to be riding the wave after giving Djokovic a good match. The main reason for this bet is what I saw, however.

as much as I like the guy, Big 'Foe is on my list of ''Do not bet again'' after his performance against Moutet. 

[K8a]

32 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:

as much as I like the guy, Big 'Foe is on my list of ''Do not bet again'' after his performance against Moutet. 

If I had a list of “ do not get again” for 1-2 performances or chokes... I don’t think there would be anyone else to bet on...

[K8a]

Just now, K8a said:

If I had a list of “ do not get again” for 1-2 performances or chokes... I don’t think there would be anyone else to bet on...

Bet*

[vladisimo2]

18 hours ago, liquidglass said:

What appealed to me most from your comment above was (1,42 I think) and (He seemed tired) which really does not sound like the Murray that I know. In fact Murray and Djokovic are two players that are experts at communicating reverse body languages in very strange ways. One minute they may look dead, and next minute they are in the 5th set waxing strong. Murray is also one of the craftiest players on court when it comes down to shot shot selection - against Rublev who up to this point in his career has been hindered by good court wisdom. The other player I must mention is Auger Aliassime, who has hitherto been held back by court craft deficiency. They both lead the brainless ball-bashing department. (sorry).

Do notget me wrong here, Rublev might end up beating Murray 2-0 as you say, but this certainly is the type of match that every punter should want to get on from the multifarious money making angles available. This really in my opinion is similar to the Gerasimov/Tsitsipas match yesterday. Gerasimov was originally priced from suspected tiredness and had ended up negating his price by recovering quickly in the 2 days prior. Murray will remember their only head to head in 2017 and know that he can still beat this guy. I will go the safe route and take Murray @ +5.5 games handicap 1/2. That really seems mouth-watering enough for me. Good luck.  

True, murray often seemed exhausted yet was able to run marathons afterwards, but I was prety confident that he doesn't have what it takes to take a set of rublev(wasn't far in the first set though). Also even though rublev ballbashes, he is far more vicious and consistent with it than alliasime. 

[vladisimo2]

Goffin should win agaisnt chardy today, but I'm not gonna bet on him. I just don't realy trust david at this point.

I'll go with tsitsipas to win over hurkacz. (1,21)- he has a winning record over him, and I think tsitsi is more of a fighter than the pole. Sure you can go with an over 19,5/20,5 games on this one, but I'll just pick tsitsipas to win it.

Last one is paul-bublik OVER 19,5 games(1,30 I think)- By all accounts they seemed in very good form here, they had a close 3 setter hard court match before and if neither of them have any physical hindrance it should cover the over 19,5 threshold.

[vvararu]

Anyone watched Pegula in Doha? No tiredness observed? She's played 5 days in row and the odds on Pliskova are tasty ~ 1.9

[vladisimo2]

Forgot to ask you guys, where can I find the stats from matches that have been played? For example the Rotterdam ones, stuff like 1st serve percentage or balls returned into play. I know they show it after the matches but they have to be saved on some other site also right ?

[Robinnho]

32 minutes ago, vladisimo2 said:

Forgot to ask you guys, where can I find the stats from matches that have been played? For example the Rotterdam ones, stuff like 1st serve percentage or balls returned into play. I know they show it after the matches but they have to be saved on some other site also right ?

You can find the stats in the tennis section of Flashscore.  Click the match and then the Stats.

 

 

[CzechPunter]

James Duckworth to beat Prajnesh Gunneswaran at 1.98 with Pinnacle

Tomas Machac to beat Soon-woo Kwon at 2.10 with Pinnacle

I watched all the matches in Nur-Sultan today (yeah, call me a masochist) and I had some luck in live betting as well. Not sure if that will translate into any wins here, of course, but I feel that both Duckworth and Machac offer some value. Duckworth wasn't underperforming by any means against his unknown opponent, he was playing really well, he just faced someone who was aggressive and landing a lot of shots in. Kwon, on the other hand, was thoroughly average against Polansky, way worse than when I saw him against Cilic. I quite liked Machac, on the other hand.

[darko08]

Fiona Ferro (-2.5 Games) to beat Clara Burel at 1.73 with William Hill

I like Burel and it's obvious that she's improving as she has achieved here 2 important wins (vs. Cornet and Sasnovich) but Ferro has proved during the last year that she plays on another level. Burel has played her last match against Sasnovich with tapes on her arm. She won the third set to nil but I imagine she wore them for a reason. She played an ITF tournament in Poitiers the last week. She reached the Final but she lost it against Snigur in a 3 set match. She played three 3 set matches there and two more here so Ferro should be more fresh for this match. Both players prefer clay but Ferro is overall better player so I back her.

Edited March 5, 2021 by darko08