Pricing your own race

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Yes I need to have a look at non hcaps etc .....I think it will need a new set of criteria though different from hcaps as graded races tend to be a mixture of official rating plus form ...plus class moreso .....I'm happy with the hcap criteria so just need to tackle some non hcaps now ......I have a few ideas to try but not sure which will work until I have a go ....its just about getting all the creases ironed out ready for Cheltenham......its gonna be a lot of fun for certain this year 

Yes, I’ve got a feeling you’d have to rate it differently. I’ll give it a bash, too, but still working on my handicaps at moment, although so far, so good. Only downside for me is I’m doing things with pen and notepad , which I’m enjoying, but it’s time consuming and a bit of an head ache after a couple of races. 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Yes, I’ve got a feeling you’d have to rate it differently. I’ll give it a bash, too, but still working on my handicaps at moment, although so far, so good. Only downside for me is I’m doing things with pen and notepad , which I’m enjoying, but it’s time consuming and a bit of an head ache after a couple of races. 

Looking at the database, looks like a horse that hasn't raced a class race that then goes on to race in a graded race is most profitable. Maybe that's a lot of Irish races.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Trotter]

Been trying to think of a points based rating system for Grade Races

I think I would like to have the most points for Class, points for recent form but not as many as in handicaps, points for Age on the basis that the younger horses might still be improving, points for Distance, Course and Going wins, .... also a new one 'Big Yard Points' on the basis that the big yards win most of the top races because they have the ammo

So I've distributed points across these categories ...... a horse that ticked every box has a possible 17 points. He would be a horse that has won it's last 2 races, has won a Grade One, has won at the track, at the distance and on this going, is amongst the youngest age group in the race and comes from a big yard (no doubt he'd be pretty well odds-on!)

Looking at the 12.45 Thurles - Grade 2

Top rated with my odds & current bet365 odds

Ellmay 14 points - my odds 10/3 (currently 9/2)
Battleoverdoyen 12 points - my odds 4/1 (currently 11/2)
Easy Game 10 points - my odds 5/1 (currently 12/1)
Annamix 8 points - my odds 13/2 (currently 6/1)
Allaho 6 points - my odds 9/1 (currently 10/11)

So Ellmay is my most likely winner on ratings and is not bad at 9/2
Easy Game would be the best value at 12/1

 

 

[Villa Chris]

57 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

Looking at the database, looks like a horse that hasn't raced a class race that then goes on to race in a graded race is most profitable. Maybe that's a lot of Irish races.

Different class as an whole the Irish horses so probably yes. 

[Villa Chris]

43 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Been trying to think of a points based rating system for Grade Races

I think I would like to have the most points for Class, points for recent form but not as many as in handicaps, points for Age on the basis that the younger horses might still be improving, points for Distance, Course and Going wins, .... also a new one 'Big Yard Points' on the basis that the big yards win most of the top races because they have the ammo

So I've distributed points across these categories ...... a horse that ticked every box has a possible 17 points. He would be a horse that has won it's last 2 races, has won a Grade One, has won at the track, at the distance and on this going, is amongst the youngest age group in the race and comes from a big yard (no doubt he'd be pretty well odds-on!)

Looking at the 12.45 Thurles - Grade 2

Top rated with my odds & current bet365 odds

Ellmay 14 points - my odds 10/3 (currently 9/2)
Battleoverdoyen 12 points - my odds 4/1 (currently 11/2)
Easy Game 10 points - my odds 5/1 (currently 12/1)
Annamix 8 points - my odds 13/2 (currently 6/1)
Allaho 6 points - my odds 9/1 (currently 10/11)

So Ellmay is my most likely winner on ratings and is not bad at 9/2
Easy Game would be the best value at 12/1

 

 

Pretty similar to how I had it, I think. Had Allaho down as weak favourite, but obviously he’s won. I’ll have a look when get back from work and post up how I had it and how I could maybe improve graded race ratings. Pretty sure I had Ellmay/ Easy Game down as top rated and she weren’t far off, with the latter unseating. 

[Trotter]

So there we go ...... my top rated beat all the other horses but the odds-on favourite won 

Looking at him again the main reason he missed out on ratings points was current form.... he hadn't finished in the first 3 in either of his last two runs

But both those runs were in Grade One races and prior to that he had finished a close up 3rd in the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival

So he  was dropping in Class here ....... maybe points should be awarded for class drops or the recent form points should be adjusted to take account of the class of race competed in.

But I think this does exemplify a problem with grade races. In handicaps you know that all the horses will be in the same ballpark as to their level of ability unless the handicapper has made a howler. In Grade races you will often have horses that haven't achieved much in the sense of wins but are put into Grade races because of their potential to be top class, based on breeding and value. Very difficult to quantify that into any sort of rating

Might be worth giving up trying to rate current form and class and jut award points based on the Official Rating ...... but then you're just using someone else's rating system (the official handicapper) which kind of defeats the object

 

[Villa Chris]

Elimay 7.5

Easy Game 7.4

Battleoverdoyen 7.1

Annamix 6.9

Balko Des Flos 6.85

Allaho 5.65

Turndownthevolume 4.3

[Villa Chris]

3 hours ago, Trotter said:

So there we go ...... my top rated beat all the other horses but the odds-on favourite won 

Looking at him again the main reason he missed out on ratings points was current form.... he hadn't finished in the first 3 in either of his last two runs

But both those runs were in Grade One races and prior to that he had finished a close up 3rd in the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival

So he  was dropping in Class here ....... maybe points should be awarded for class drops or the recent form points should be adjusted to take account of the class of race competed in.

But I think this does exemplify a problem with grade races. In handicaps you know that all the horses will be in the same ballpark as to their level of ability unless the handicapper has made a howler. In Grade races you will often have horses that haven't achieved much in the sense of wins but are put into Grade races because of their potential to be top class, based on breeding and value. Very difficult to quantify that into any sort of rating

Might be worth giving up trying to rate current form and class and jut award points based on the Official Rating ...... but then you're just using someone else's rating system (the official handicapper) which kind of defeats the object

 

Allaho scored low on distance. He also only scored half the available points for the going, too. Form he scored decent, as I accounted in the fact he was dropping down in class.  He scored low on his mark, and I think that’s one of the things that need tinkering with. He’s obviously a horse held in high regard and Ruby Walsh tipped him the other day for the Ryanair at the festival, but you can only go on what’s in front of you regarding what the horse has done so far, so it’s tricky . 

Edited January 27, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

What's peoples opinion on official rating in a non hcap .......my experience is if 2 horses are in form and one is rated 115 the other 109 ....you want to be on the higher every time unless the lower is improving rapidly 

I.e if a race 

180 

178

176

172

171

170

168

167

165 

In my head I'm thinking gold cup etc ....the winner generally comes from the higher rated horses .... so would say the top 3 official ratings score 10pts ...the next 3 8pts etc ....do you think that seems fair ??

Class wise I'm thinking highest value place last 3 runs might work well ????....its a good measure of what the horse is capable of currently????

[Villa Chris]

31 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

What's peoples opinion on official rating in a non hcap .......my experience is if 2 horses are in form and one is rated 115 the other 109 ....you want to be on the higher every time unless the lower is improving rapidly 

I.e if a race 

180 

178

176

172

171

170

168

167

165 

In my head I'm thinking gold cup etc ....the winner generally comes from the higher rated horses .... so would say the top 3 official ratings score 10pts ...the next 3 8pts etc ....do you think that seems fair ??

Class wise I'm thinking highest value place last 3 runs might work well ????....its a good measure of what the horse is capable of currently????

Incorporating official ratings in your ratings is a pretty solid yardstick IMO. Ok you’re using someone else’s ratings with yours, but you’re still using other factors to gain the bulk of the points a horse will score . You could use RPRs but the only problem with that is their last couple of RPRs might read 173, 170 on soft ground. The going for this race could be G/S, which may not fully suit the horse, then there is obviously the course factor. For example Bristol De Mai is 10Ibs better at Haydock than anywhere else, Clan is 10Ibs better at Kempton etc etc.  I’d expect grade 1-2 races to be quite tight in terms of points separating most of the horses. There’s a graded hurdle race in Ireland tomorrow I might have a crack at in bit if I have time. Need to try and see how’s best to rate it though 

[Villa Chris]

Waiting for prices but will edit to suit. My price in brackets 

Fakenham 1.55

Aubusson 9.1, (Around 9/2-5/1) 6/1 value Nowhere 

Aintree My Dream , 8.9(5/1)6/1 value unseated 

Golden Whisky 6.1(8/1) 13/8 no value 

Lord Scoundrel 6(8/1) 20/1 value 

Shanacoole  Prince 5.6(17/2)7/1 no value 

Corrany 5.1(10/1)8/1 no value 

Admiral Barraty 4.8( 10/1)13/2 no value 

Flying Sofa 4.1(12/1)15/2 no value 

Montys Award 2.85(18/1)16/1 no value 

Top two to win. Both a bit of value and clear on ratings. Lord Scoundrel would be a decent ew bet, too. This race is a case of young v old . My ratings suggest the old boys should come out on top .

Edited January 28, 2021 by Villa Chris

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Is rating handicaps any different to rating a graded race?

This could be a good area to find value as favourites have quite a poor record in graded races. 2nd and 3rd favourites are the profitable areas.

The key factor (as often seems to be the case in NH racing) is age with 5 and 6 year olds being profitable with an AE of 1.06.

I am not sure of the logic of this one but Irish bred horses have a poor record (AE of 0.94) compared to UK (1.09) and French (1.06).

Odds on favourites have a poor record (AE 0.89). At the other end of the scale there have been 504 horses that have started at 50/1 or higher and only 1 has won.

A good rest from the last race is important with 34 - 75 days being the optimum with an AE of 1.07.

Good form figures are also important, 11, 21 and 31 have an AE of 1.06.

I don't want to be sexist but female horses have a poor record with an AE of 0.94.

CD winners have a good record with an AE of 1.08.

I'm looking forward to Cheltenham to test some of these stats.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

What's peoples opinion on official rating in a non hcap .......my experience is if 2 horses are in form and one is rated 115 the other 109 ....you want to be on the higher every time unless the lower is improving rapidly 

Again the stats would suggest that the higher rated horses perform relatively badly from a profit perspective with those above 138 having an AE of 0.98. Those below 138 have an AE of 1.14.

[Wildgarden]

On my ratings.. all the 2nd and 3rd rated have won with narrow 2nds or 3rds from the 1st rated and one winner only value pick from 4th rated.

[richard-westwood]

I've got the form ratings for thystes chase at gowran tomorrow  

Run wild fred  7.9 15/2 14/1 good value 

A capella bourgeois   7.8 15/2 15/2 value 

I'll try 5pt ew  both 

 

Edited January 27, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Wildgarden]

22 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I've got the form ratings for thystes chase at gowran tomorrow  

Run wild fred  7.9 15/2 14/1 good value 

A capella bourgeois   7.8 15/2 15/2 value 

I'll try 5pt ew  both 

 

Change of going could completely mess my ratings up lol night before lol

Edited January 27, 2021 by Wildgarden

[ipswich45]

think ive royally screwed up.....HELP!!!

1405 Wetherby (28/01)
1-    14/1  vs 7/1
2-    10/1  vs 4/1
3-   21/1  vs 20/1
4-   12/1 vs 66/1     
5-  20/1 vs 17/2
6-  9/1 vs 18/1
7-  7/1 vs 9/4     - me and bet 365 agree on it being favourite
8- 8/1 vs 3/1
9 - 8/1 vs 11/2
10 - 12/1 vs 66/1
11 - 13/1 vs 33/1
12 - 9/1 vs 25/1

i have used the original post by @The Brigadier and @richard-westwood on page 1

my price listed 1st  against Bet365 at time of posting   
 

[Villa Chris]

3.10 Wetherby 

Charmant 8.6, 8/1(15/2) about right 

Last Goodbye 8.5, 25/1(15/2) value 

Town Parks 8.15, 7/2(8/1) no value 

Maypole Class  7.6, 11/4( 17/2) no value 

Kings Odyssey 7.6, 14/1(17/2) value 

The Paddy Pie 7.1, 13/2(9/1) no value 

Champagne Mystery 6.7, 7/2(10/1) no value 

Fortified Bay 6.5, 12/1(10/1) value 

Zolfo 6.05, 14/1(11/1) value 

I’m To Blame 5.7, 12/1(12/1) about right

The top 3 look strong. I’d be looking at Charmant ew and Last Goodbye ew

Edited January 27, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

19 minutes ago, ipswich45 said:

think ive royally screwed up.....HELP!!!

1405 Wetherby (28/01)
1-    14/1  vs 7/1
2-    10/1  vs 4/1
3-   21/1  vs 20/1
4-   12/1 vs 66/1     
5-  20/1 vs 17/2
6-  9/1 vs 18/1
7-  7/1 vs 9/4     - me and bet 365 agree on it being favourite
8- 8/1 vs 3/1
9 - 8/1 vs 11/2
10 - 12/1 vs 66/1
11 - 13/1 vs 33/1
12 - 9/1 vs 25/1

i have used the original post by @The Brigadier and @richard-westwood on page 1

my price listed 1st  against Bet365 at time of posting   
 

It's possible for a big race to look like that if the form is fairly close and even so might not be wrong ,??

[Pirate53]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

What's peoples opinion on official rating in a non hcap .......my experience is if 2 horses are in form and one is rated 115 the other 109 ....you want to be on the higher every time unless the lower is improving rapidly 

I.e if a race 

180 

178

176

172

171

170

168

167

165 

In my head I'm thinking gold cup etc ....the winner generally comes from the higher rated horses .... so would say the top 3 official ratings score 10pts ...the next 3 8pts etc ....do you think that seems fair ??

Class wise I'm thinking highest value place last 3 runs might work well ????....its a good measure of what the horse is capable of currently????

I agree with favouring the higher rated. One thing to remember is that it's the difference between one rating and another that counts, rather than the rating in itself. If you start with the lowest (say its 165 as your example) and knock off 150 so the rating is 15 then carry on up to 180 which becomes 30. I have tried this method in my handicap ratings and it works. (the 150 is just an example, it may work better with 120 or whatever) Then you can adjust this new rating with whatever you want, say add 10 for a top trainer or similar. You can also then add things like apprentice allowances etc. Adding 3pts to a rating of 165 makes little difference but adding 3 to 15 does actually do something! Just my thoughts.

[Pirate53]

In the above, to quickly determine the subtractor (150 in this case) you would say is the top horse rated 30 twice as good as the bottom horse rated 15. If no, make an estimate and re evaluate with a lower subtractor. If you think the difference is 25% then subtractor needs to be 120 giving 60 top/45 bottom and so on.

[richard-westwood]

15 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I've got the form ratings for thystes chase at gowran tomorrow  

Run wild fred  7.9 15/2 14/1 good value 

A capella bourgeois   7.8 15/2 15/2 value 

I'll try 5pt ew  both 

 

Run wild caned into best price 8/1 ...generally 15/2 ....

[Wildgarden]

17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

This could be a good area to find value as favourites have quite a poor record in graded races. 2nd and 3rd favourites are the profitable areas.

The key factor (as often seems to be the case in NH racing) is age with 5 and 6 year olds being profitable with an AE of 1.06.

I am not sure of the logic of this one but Irish bred horses have a poor record (AE of 0.94) compared to UK (1.09) and French (1.06).

Odds on favourites have a poor record (AE 0.89). At the other end of the scale there have been 504 horses that have started at 50/1 or higher and only 1 has won.

A good rest from the last race is important with 34 - 75 days being the optimum with an AE of 1.07.

Good form figures are also important, 11, 21 and 31 have an AE of 1.06.

I don't want to be sexist but female horses have a poor record with an AE of 0.94.

CD winners have a good record with an AE of 1.08.

I'm looking forward to Cheltenham to test some of these stats.

Irish horses in Irish races that aren't favourite are better in graded races looking at last 10 years 

[Bang on]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

What's peoples opinion on official rating in a non hcap .......my experience is if 2 horses are in form and one is rated 115 the other 109 ....you want to be on the higher every time unless the lower is improving rapidly 

I.e if a race 

180 

178

176

 

In my head I'm thinking gold cup etc ....the winner generally comes from the higher rated horses .... so would say the top 3 official ratings score 10pts ...the next 3 8pts etc ....do you think that seems fair ??

Class wise I'm thinking highest value place last 3 runs might work well ????....its a good measure of what the horse is capable of currently????

I presume that you are talking about the higher class races rather than all non-hcps. As they are all carrying the same weight (unless penalties, weight for age etc) it seems wise to focus on the top 4 or 5 rated.

 

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Waiting for prices but will edit to suit. My price in brackets 

Fakenham 1.55

Aubusson 9.1, (Around 9/2-5/1) 6/1 value Nowhere 

Aintree My Dream , 8.9(5/1)6/1 value unseated 

Golden Whisky 6.1(8/1) 13/8 no value 

Lord Scoundrel 6(8/1) 20/1 value 

Shanacoole  Prince 5.6(17/2)7/1 no value 

Corrany 5.1(10/1)8/1 no value 

Admiral Barraty 4.8( 10/1)13/2 no value 

Flying Sofa 4.1(12/1)15/2 no value 

Montys Award 2.85(18/1)16/1 no value 

Top two to win. Both a bit of value and clear on ratings. Lord Scoundrel would be a decent ew bet, too. This race is a case of young v old . My ratings suggest the old boys should come out on top .

No luck with this one. The hot favourite didn’t win though.

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I've got the form ratings for thystes chase at gowran tomorrow  

Run wild fred  7.9 15/2 14/1 good value 

A capella bourgeois   7.8 15/2 15/2 value 

I'll try 5pt ew  both 

 

2nd and 5th ...both ew 

[Pirate53]

Newcastle 18.00

Very close ratings here.

Mossbawn     13.25     My odds  9/1          11/2   No value

Jewel Maker   12.7      My odds  17/2        11/2   No value       

First Response 12.6    My odds  17/2        9/1     About right

Baronial Pride   12.35  My odds  10/1        5/1    No value

Traveller       12.2        My odds  10/1       12/1   Some value

Boma Green  11.3      My odds   11/1       11/2    No value

Great Colaci  11.15     My odds  11/1        14/1   Some value

Curfewed      10.55     My odds   11.5/1    14/1   Some value

Mossbawn the Hugh Taylor selection so price has been depressed. Will try a small ew on Traveller.

If pushed to give a winner I'd say Jewel Maker.

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Pirate53
Added info.

[richard-westwood]

6.00 newc

First response 8.4  7/1 8/1 value 

Curfewed 8.2 15/2 20.0 very good value 

Both are value bets ...especially curfewed who looks a  very good price 

First response 5pts ew 8/1 betv

Curfewed 5pts win 20.0 ..5pts place 5.3 betfair 

 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, Pirate53 said:

Newcastle 18.00

Very close ratings here.

Mossbawn     13.25     My odds  9/1          11/2   No value

Jewel Maker   12.7      My odds  17/2        11/2   No value       

First Response 12.6    My odds  17/2        9/1     About right

Baronial Pride   12.35  My odds  10/1        5/1    No value

Traveller       12.2        My odds  10/1       12/1   Some value

Boma Green  11.3      My odds   11/1       11/2    No value

Great Colaci  11.15     My odds  11/1        14/1   Some value

Curfewed      10.55     My odds   11.5/1    14/1   Some value

Mossbawn the Hugh Taylor selection so price has been depressed. Will try a small ew on Traveller.

If pushed to give a winner I'd say Jewel Maker.

 

I have pholas great colci and first response, with first response my bets pick then Pholas

Edited January 28, 2021 by Wildgarden

[richard-westwood]

21 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

I have pholas great colci and first response, with first response my bets pick then Pholas

Well you had that one right ?..well rated