Pricing your own race

[richard-westwood]

415 meyd non hcap

Matterhorn  9.4 5/2 4/7 poor value 

Secret ambition 9.1 3/1 3/1 value 

Very interesting race ...matterhorn is short fav but secret ambition is very close behind in ratings and arguably equal if you add bonus points for recent run ....will be interesting to see what happens 

[Villa Chris]

Wincanton 2.10 

Regal Flow 8.6, 40/1(11/1) value 

Commodore 8.1, 14/1(11/1) value 

Final Nudge 8, 17/2(11/1) value 

The Kings Writ 7.9, 8/1(12/1)no value 

Shanty Ally 7.75, 5/1(12/1) no value 

Seaston Spirit 7.75, 11/2(12/1) no value 

Darlac 7.5, 12/1(13/1) no value 

Shantou Flyer 6.9, 15/2(14/1) no value 

Springfield Fox 6.6, 15/2(14/1) no value 

Ballycross 6.3, 6/1(15/1) no value 

Eden Du Houx 6.25, 9/1(15/1) no value 

Lamanver Pippin 5.85, 22/1(17/1) value 

Head To The Stars 5.4, 28/1(18/1) value 

Time To Get Up 4.15, 16/1(23/1) no value 

 

Not sure what to make if this. Either way seems a very hard race to call .Top rated 40/1 ?  He’s getting on a bit but has been running respectable in class 2s lately, so who knows. 
 

2.50 points ew on top two. Paying 4 places . 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Wildgarden]

Today's top rated on ratings where 115 3rd (let.me down for multiple thousands) 145 2nd, 250 won, 325 4th, 355 2nd.

Night races where 525 9th, 555 3rd, 625 3rd, 700 6th, 730 4th and 800 2nd.

Any comments let me know.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

Today's winners where rated as follows 115 last no form lol 145 2nd rated,  250 1st rated, 325 7th rated , 355 7th rated.

 

Night races winners where rated as follows 525 2nd rated (had winner) , 555 2nd rated (messed up and missed winner as drifted), 625 2nd rated, 700 3rd rated had winner as liked chances, 730 2nd rated and 800 5th rated (again let me down big time)

 

Lesson - just follow.2nd rated in acca and be rich lol

Top rated did better in day where 2nd rated did better at night.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Alley Cat Glover]

Going to give it another go, might survive the weather this time. Gone for the 14.45 at Wincanton, 10 runners Class 3 2m 3f. Interesting outcome, not sure quiet what to make of it.

Top 5 rated
Dan Macgrew 8.7  6/1.   33/1 available. ???

Broken Quest. 8.5. 6/1   4/1. No Value

Stormy Flight. 8.3.  13/2.  3/1. No Value

Thor de Cerisy. 7.7   7/1    7/1  about right

Rocheston   6.5   8/1    6/1   No Value

Now Dan Macgrew (went off at 100/1 for new stable) finished 8 lengths behind Stormy Flight at Exeter last time out is 2lb better for those 8 lengths. Dan Macgrew has won off 130 and runs of 130 here, Stormy Flight won off 115 runs off 123 here, beat 5 lengths by Bear Ghylls. Last time out who is unbeaten. This will be Dan’s third run this season, Stormy Flight will be running for the 5th time. So could the extra fitness and 2lb be enough to reverse places with Stormy Flight, is it proper value. Going to have to back him E/W to small stake now.

Interested for anybody else’s thoughts, have I gone wrong somewhere?

[richard-westwood]

Winc 210 

Shantou flyer 9.4 7/1 13/2 no value 

Seaston spirit 9.2 15/2 11/2 no value 

Shanty alley 7.0 11/1 5/1 poor value 

Kings writ 7.0 11/1 15.5 good value 

Top 2 are well clear on form ....kings writ is ew value bet at 15.5 ....but I'll take top 2 as bets in this 

[Robb089]

Wincanton 2:10

Regal Flow 7.9  10/1  SP 40/1  Value
Shantou Flyer 7.2  10/1  SP 5/1 No Value
Season Spirit 6.3   12/1  SP 6/1 No Value
Eden Du Houx 6.2 12/1  SP 5/1 No Value

While Regal Flow has been running decent races of late, not sure at 14 years old I’m willing to take the chance. Saying that, his last 3 runs been close to today’s distance and all in a higher class. Going is heavy which he’s also won off, so who knows!

[richard-westwood]

13 hours ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Going to give it another go, might survive the weather this time. Gone for the 14.45 at Wincanton, 10 runners Class 3 2m 3f. Interesting outcome, not sure quiet what to make of it.

Top 5 rated
Dan Macgrew 8.7  6/1.   33/1 available. ???

Broken Quest. 8.5. 6/1   4/1. No Value

Stormy Flight. 8.3.  13/2.  3/1. No Value

Thor de Cerisy. 7.7   7/1    7/1  about right

Rocheston   6.5   8/1    6/1   No Value

Now Dan Macgrew (went off at 100/1 for new stable) finished 8 lengths behind Stormy Flight at Exeter last time out is 2lb better for those 8 lengths. Dan Macgrew has won off 130 and runs of 130 here, Stormy Flight won off 115 runs off 123 here, beat 5 lengths by Bear Ghylls. Last time out who is unbeaten. This will be Dan’s third run this season, Stormy Flight will be running for the 5th time. So could the extra fitness and 2lb be enough to reverse places with Stormy Flight, is it proper value. Going to have to back him E/W to small stake now.

Interested for anybody else’s thoughts, have I gone wrong somewhere?

Well he has won off this mark so in a 9 horse race he shouldn't be 33/1 full stop 

[Tedthewolf]

Good to see the old boy Regal Flow well up on your ratings guys,  have had a couple quid e/w for 4 places as 40/1 seems massive  but agree age is a bit of a worry but will love running in a muck heap.  Shantou Flyer looks the one to beat but wont carry my money fot 2 reasons  the short price antd the fact it is entered for Cheltenham in March a track where he always runs well so may not be cherry ripe for today having  first run for Nicholls stable.

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, Robb089 said:

Wincanton 2:10

Regal Flow 7.9  10/1  SP 40/1  Value
Shantou Flyer 7.2  10/1  SP 5/1 No Value
Season Spirit 6.3   12/1  SP 6/1 No Value
Eden Du Houx 6.2 12/1  SP 5/1 No Value

While Regal Flow has been running decent races of late, not sure at 14 years old I’m willing to take the chance. Saying that, his last 3 runs been close to today’s distance and all in a higher class. Going is heavy which he’s also won off, so who knows!

I was sceptical with his age and that, but as Richard said he’s definitely overpriced. Distance no problem, going no problem , course no problem ,  he’s not out of his league regarding class, on a very low mark now, but how much is left at that age? He’s not been running too bad of late in class 2 races but this looks a strong class 3 race. He’s not as capable as Takingrisks still is, but the ratings are the ratings, so I’ve had 2.50 ew on him, purely because of the price. 

[Villa Chris]

Could do with doing something regarding how I score an horse regarding its handicap mark . I’ve noticed if I rate a race and it has some older horses up against younger up and coming horses, the older horses rate higher because they have usually won off higher marks in the past so they get top points, where as an up and coming horse might be racing on a mark it hasn’t raced off before so scores lower.  Not saying the older horses shouldn’t be top rated but I’ve got a feeling it won’t be accurate long term . 

[Robb089]

5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I was sceptical with his age and that, but as Richard said he’s definitely overpriced. Distance no problem, going no problem , course no problem ,  he’s not out of his league regarding class, on a very low mark now, but how much is left at that age? He’s not been running too bad of late in class 2 races but this looks a strong class 3 race. He’s not as capable as Takingrisks still is, but the ratings are the ratings, so I’ve had 2.50 ew on him, purely because of the price. 

Agree with both you and Richard on this. Ultimately as you say, ratings are the ratings. If the bookies are offering a high return for a low stake, then it’s a no brainier. There’s certainly far worse things to judge a horse on than it’s age!

 

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, Robb089 said:

Agree with both you and Richard on this. Ultimately as you say, ratings are the ratings. If the bookies are offering a high return for a low stake, then it’s a no brainier. There’s certainly far worse things to judge a horse on than it’s age!

 

If he places at that price I’ll be over the moon . I had Commodore second rated. Took 14/1 last night as don’t always have time during work but he’s 22/1 now  and I’ve finished work, but it’s one of them .  Regal Flow now 28/1 on my account .

Edited February 4, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Robb089]

14.35 Ffos Las

Looks Like power 8.5  8/1  SP 11/1
Steel Native 7.6  11/1  SP 33/1
Le Tuer 6.5  10/1  SP 3/2

Result;

1st Steel Native 33/1
2nd La Tuer
3rd Looks Like Power 11/1

Went EW on Looks Like Power as Steel Natives last 2 runs in similar races we’re Pulled Up.

Another point towards the right direction for the process though!
 

[Pirate53]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

Could do with doing something regarding how I score an horse regarding its handicap mark . I’ve noticed if I rate a race and it has some older horses up against younger up and coming horses, the older horses rate higher because they have usually won off higher marks in the past so they get top points, where as an up and coming horse might be racing on a mark it hasn’t raced off before so scores lower.  Not saying the older horses shouldn’t be top rated but I’ve got a feeling it won’t be accurate long term . 

Devise an age scale maybe? Or just knock the horses age off the handicap mark?

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:

Devise an age scale maybe? Or just knock the horses age off the handicap mark?

Yes been thinking about it on way home from work. Will have to use some kind of scale, but don’t want to be too harsh. Take away regal flows handicap mark score, he still would have scored high but wouldn’t have been top rated, but I’ll see what I can come up with . 

[Pirate53]

18 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:

Devise an age scale maybe? Or just knock the horses age off the handicap mark?

My suggestion:

4/5        1

6/7        0

8           1

9           2

10         3

11         4

12         5

13         6

14+       7

For 10 yo and up add yrs since last win, then knock total off hcap mark.

[Villa Chris]

19 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Wincanton 2.10 

Regal Flow 8.6, 40/1(11/1) value 

Commodore 8.1, 14/1(11/1) value 

Final Nudge 8, 17/2(11/1) value 

The Kings Writ 7.9, 8/1(12/1)no value 

Shanty Ally 7.75, 5/1(12/1) no value 

Seaston Spirit 7.75, 11/2(12/1) no value 

Darlac 7.5, 12/1(13/1) no value 

Shantou Flyer 6.9, 15/2(14/1) no value 

Springfield Fox 6.6, 15/2(14/1) no value 

Ballycross 6.3, 6/1(15/1) no value 

Eden Du Houx 6.25, 9/1(15/1) no value 

Lamanver Pippin 5.85, 22/1(17/1) value 

Head To The Stars 5.4, 28/1(18/1) value 

Time To Get Up 4.15, 16/1(23/1) no value 

 

Not sure what to make if this. Either way seems a very hard race to call .Top rated 40/1 ?  He’s getting on a bit but has been running respectable in class 2s lately, so who knows. 
 

2.50 points ew on top two. Paying 4 places . 

Top two pulled up. Infact half the field pulled up 7/14 runners. Hard run race found a lot out in the conditions. 

[Villa Chris]

18 minutes ago, Pirate53 said:

My suggestion:

4/5        1

6/7        0

8           1

9           2

10         3

11         4

12         5

13         6

14+       7

For 10 yo and up add yrs since last win, then knock total off hcap mark.

Good idea . My top rated hadn’t won for 3 years and although he hadn’t been running terribly , he wasn’t nowhere near winning either, so even off a low mark of 122, he hadn’t come close running off 124-125 previously . 

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Trying some non hcaps 

Uae 2000 guineas thurs meydan 340

Mouheeb  9.6 4/1 11/8   no value 

Naval crown 9.5  4/1 6/4 no value 

Meshakel  8.1 5/1 9/2 no value 

Only 6 runners so mainly just to check ratings 

Mouheeb  wins ...meshakel 2nd ...happy with that 

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

415 meyd non hcap

Matterhorn  9.4 5/2 4/7 poor value 

Secret ambition 9.1 3/1 3/1 value 

Very interesting race ...matterhorn is short fav but secret ambition is very close behind in ratings and arguably equal if you add bonus points for recent run ....will be interesting to see what happens 

Secret ambition value bet wins easily ....the non hcaps ran well today so just need a few more test races to confirm things are working but happy so far 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Pirate53 said:

Devise an age scale maybe? Or just knock the horses age off the handicap mark?

I would use strike rate as a logical way of adjusting for age.

The strike rate by age in handicap chases is :-

4	0.18
5	0.15
6	0.16
7	0.14
8	0.12
9	0.11
10	0.10
11	0.08
12	0.07
13	0.06
14	0.07
15	0.12

[Villa Chris]

13 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I would use strike rate as a logical way of adjusting for age.

The strike rate by age in handicap chases is :-

4	0.18
5	0.15
6	0.16
7	0.14
8	0.12
9	0.11
10	0.10
11	0.08
12	0.07
13	0.06
14	0.07
15	0.12

So 15 year olds have a better strike rate than 9 year olds ? 

[MCLARKE]

Yes but a very small sample size, 2 winners from 15 runners in 7 years so you are unlikely to come across many (the last one was last March).

Probably better to group all horses aged 12 or over, 141 winners from 2,060 runners (7%).

[Alley Cat Glover]

21 hours ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Top 5 rated
Dan Macgrew 8.7  6/1.   33/1 available. ???

Broken Quest. 8.5. 6/1   4/1. No Value

Stormy Flight. 8.3.  13/2.  3/1. No Value

Thor de Cerisy. 7.7   7/1    7/1  about right

Rocheston   6.5   8/1    6/1   No Value

Review, nowhere near the winner or 2nd on ratings, neither had much form on the heavy going or much in the way of ratings to back up a turn of form, always going to get these sort of results. To be fair Zafar had come down in the ratings a lot and had been getting closer. 
Try another race and see where that leads.

[Villa Chris]

Catterick 2.00

Legalised 8.15, 5/1(13/2) no value 

Bryden Boy 7.95, 8/1(7/1) value 

Bailarico 7.78, 14/1(7/1) value 

Big Penny 7.15, 5/1(15/2) no value 

Jessiemac 7, 10/1(8/1) value 

top 5 rated in a field of 11. Bailarico looks the standout bet in terms of value and is not far off top rated . 

[Alley Cat Glover]

Interesting I have done the 2.00 @ Catterick as well Class 3, 3m1f HH

Wbee   7.3   8-1   8-1 about right

Legalised   7.2  8-1  6-1 no value

Bryden Boy. 7.0   8-1    8-1  about right

Jessiemac  6.5    9-1  12- 1  value

Dadsintrouble 6.5  9-1  9-1  about right

Now again last time out Dadsintrouble was in front of Bryson Boy by about 11 lengths with only a 1lb pull can’t see that being reversed all things being equal? Jessiemac would have scored higher but been off track for 100+ days, but claimer takes off 5lb which would be another positive.

Going with Jessiemac e/w  12/1 with bet365 to a small stake. Thing Wbee may well be there about also.

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said:

Interesting I have done the 2.00 @ Catterick as well Class 3, 3m1f HH

Wbee   7.3   8-1   8-1 about right

Legalised   7.2  8-1  6-1 no value

Bryden Boy. 7.0   8-1    8-1  about right

Jessiemac  6.5    9-1  12- 1  value

Dadsintrouble 6.5  9-1  9-1  about right

Now again last time out Dadsintrouble was in front of Bryson Boy by about 11 lengths with only a 1lb pull can’t see that being reversed all things being equal? Jessiemac would have scored higher but been off track for 100+ days, but claimer takes off 5lb which would be another positive.

Going with Jessiemac e/w  12/1 with bet365 to a small stake. Thing Wbee may well be there about also.

You’d think not, but we’ll see. I’ve got Dadsintrouble just outside top 5 on 6.9, but going off the weights he should confirm the form with Bryson Boy. 

[richard-westwood]

110 ling saturday kachey stakes

Misty grey 9.0 6/1 7/2 no value 

Summerghand 8.4 13/2 6/1 no value 

Aberama gold 7.8 7/1 6/1 no value 

Interesting race ....and very classy ....summerhhand is an interesting runner...is very classy on turf and if he can translate recent form back to all weather he could take some beating ....misty grey is in a rich vein of form ...could be more to come ....I'll try 10pt wins top 2 7/2 and 6/1 ....shoukd be a good race 

[richard-westwood]

245 leopard 

Pont Aven  7.9 16/1 7/1 no value 

The shunt 7.7 16/1 7/1 no value

Emily moon 7.3 17/1 14/1:no value 

The shunt is an unknown so I'll take pont aven and emily moon ew at 7/1 and 14/1