Pricing your own race

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Got to be tadleel for me! Down in class  knocking on door. Katheffa value.

Tadleel wins. Top 4 rated. Top 6 in top 6 finishes lol.

Edited February 11, 2021 by Wildgarden

[richard-westwood]

Keeping up with the practice races ....just finalising the rules im going to use for hcap races so I'm trying to rate bigger races now to see if the scores hold up 

5.00 Dund

Drakensburg 8.8 17/2 13/2 no value 

Laura bullion 8.5 9/1 15/2 no value 

These 2 look decently rated in a tricky race so I'll try ew bets and see how they fair 

[Tedthewolf]

Its probably just me but i don't get the fact that when you guys rate the races horses  that are not value bets some of you guys are still happy to back them   would it not be  better to wait to see if they drift and become  value if not don't back. Imo if you back at what you see as not value are you not playing into the bookies hands?

Edited February 12, 2021 by Tedthewolf

[Tedthewolf]

...and another question if i may  in the big handicaps do you rate every horse in the race?

[richard-westwood]

7 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Its probably just me but i don't get the fact that when you rate the races horses  that are not value bets some of you guys are still happy to back them   would it not be  better to wait to see if they drift and become  value if not don't back. Imo if you back at what you see as not value are you not playing into the bookies hands?

Fair point ....the formula is mathematically showing you the value bet so if your a purist like you say youd skip the race or wait and see if you can get a better price ........but I'm not a purist as weve discussed in past I'm a relativist when it comes to value  ...I feel I've narrowed this race to the 2 horses above and the 2 others from top trainers as possible improvers ....so with relative value I feel if I can get 9/2 or better I'll play ....I'm comfortable with that risk so as I can get well over that I'm happy to play .....you can still play the bets or you might not ever have a bet lol .....at the moment the races are small and quite poor so you wouldn't expect many value bets as the bookies aren't giving much away  ...its the big weekend hcaps where you will usually find the best ones where the bookies make mistakes ...

This formula is scientific value.....me if I can narrow a race to 2 horses and get 5/2 then I'll play ....that's always served me well...just 2 sides of the same coin 

[richard-westwood]

3 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

...and another question if i may  in the big handicaps do you rate every horse in the race?

Yes ....to get accurate values you must score every single horse ....total them all up then divide each horses score into the total score to get your price....so every horse counts even the 100/1 outsider 

[Tedthewolf]

Thanks Richard?

[Wildgarden]

My difficulty sometimes is how many value to bet with! Look at ydays 730... Had the winner as value (15% and was 17-1 BSP) but in reality I missed it and backed katsonis instead and was kicking myself lol. In some races, I'd be backing  3 horses value  perhaps from the top 5.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Tedthewolf]

13 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

My difficulty sometimes is how many value to bet with! Look at ydays 730... Had the winner as value (15% and was 17-1 BSP) but in reality I missed it and backed katsonis instead and was kicking myself lol. In some races, I'd be backing  3 horses value  perhaps from the top 5.

The best rated value bets  in big handicaps may be the way to go you could probably back 2 or 3 e/w  with 5 or 6 places up for grabs.

[richard-westwood]

13 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

The best rated value bets  in big handicaps may be the way to go you could probably back 2 or 3 e/w  with 5 or 6 places up for grabs.

Yeah especially if they are top 3 rated .....I like bet365 each way extra to 6 or 7 places in the big races ...sometimes they offer silly prices on the extra places so that will be my first port of call followed by the sky extra places etc ...but that is just as important  because it's ok getting 16/1 4 places but if you can 14/1 6 or 7 places then that's way better value and that happens a lot 

That's probably how I'll go at Cheltenham....if I cant finish top 6 or 7 may as well give up ??

Edited February 12, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Jackform]

I have been compiling my own tissue to compare with the betting market since 1979, although I am not sure that you can better the professional advice easily available nowadays.

My simple arithmetic is to rate each runner and add for a total. Divide 100 by that total and multiply that figure by each individual rating in turn. Then convert the individual percentages to odds by reference to the field money table. However, if you check the odds on offer on the At The Races site they show the runners with the best chances and an average overround for the race.

Take the Southwell 3.15 today indicates an average overround 106.66

Ladbrokes priced up:

1. 5/2 = 11/4 fair odds Blackcurrent

2. 15/2 = 8/1

3. Nil (22/1 RP average)

5. 12/1 = 13/1

6. 7/1 = 15/2 Navajo Dawn

7. 11/1 = 12/1

8. Nil (25/1 RP average)

9. 13/8 = 7/4 True Hero

Comment: In my opinion this race is restricted to a win from no's 1, 6, 9 and they wold be the runners to watch the market with for a bet.

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Yeah especially if they are top 3 rated .....I like bet365 each way extra to 6 or 7 places in the big races ...sometimes they offer silly prices on the extra places so that will be my first port of call followed by the sky extra places etc ...but that is just as important  because it's ok getting 16/1 4 places but if you can 14/1 6 or 7 places then that's way better value and that happens a lot 

That's probably how I'll go at Cheltenham....if I cant finish top 6 or 7 may as well give up ??

Restricted on bet365 so no good there too much money won! Should be fair playing field like in Australia they can't ban people for being unprofitable customers. They offer the offers and prices lol. Went on a site other day couldn't even put a five fold on at night. But in the day was okay, so think they didn't have traders on so restrict at night accas to so much!

Edited February 12, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

5 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

...and another question if i may  in the big handicaps do you rate every horse in the race?

I did the two big Irish handicaps at the weekend gone and it took me a while . Over an hour notepad and pen rating every horse . As for value , I tend do agree with Richard regarding picking horses that may not offer value but are still good selections providing the odds are playable . 

Edited February 12, 2021 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Restricted on bet365 so no good there too much money won! Should be fair playing field like in Australia they can't ban people for being unprofitable customers. They offer the offers and prices lol. Went on a site other day couldn't even put a five fold on at night. But in the day was okay, so think they didn't have traders on so restrict at night accas to so much!

It boils my blood. Wrong plain and simple, and something should be done about it. Not that I’m even close to being restricted.

[Wildgarden]

14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

It boils my blood. Wrong plain and simple, and something should be done about it. Not that I’m even close to being restricted.

Cant even do my accas in shop now they are shut or would do all there lol. Guess we have to remember that online wasn't there before only phone bookies and now we have exchnages. So we are benefiting overall

Edited February 12, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

1 minute ago, Wildgarden said:

Cant even do my accas in shop now they are shut or would do all there lol

Heard it used to be a badge of honour being restricted , but read numerous stories of people being restricted that are only 2-3k up on their betting accounts. How many do you usually put in your accas? 

[Wildgarden]

5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Heard it used to be a badge of honour being restricted , but read numerous stories of people being restricted that are only 2-3k up on their betting accounts. How many do you usually put in your accas? 

13-15 lol

[Villa Chris]

6 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

13-15 lol

Jesus Christ ha. Why that many? Or is it for the ew money 

[Tedthewolf]

2 hours ago, Jackform said:

I have been compiling my own tissue to compare with the betting market since 1979, although I am not sure that you can better the professional advice easily available nowadays.

My simple arithmetic is to rate each runner and add for a total. Divide 100 by that total and multiply that figure by each individual rating in turn. Then convert the individual percentages to odds by reference to the field money table. However, if you check the odds on offer on the At The Races site they show the runners with the best chances and an average overround for the race.

Take the Southwell 3.15 today indicates an average overround 106.66

Ladbrokes priced up:

1. 5/2 = 11/4 fair odds Blackcurrent

2. 15/2 = 8/1

3. Nil (22/1 RP average)

5. 12/1 = 13/1

6. 7/1 = 15/2 Navajo Dawn

7. 11/1 = 12/1

8. Nil (25/1 RP average)

9. 13/8 = 7/4 True Hero

Comment: In my opinion this race is restricted to a win from no's 1, 6, 9 and they wold be the runners to watch the market with for a bet.

On that basis i have  had a small e/w play on Navajo Dawn @ 9/1 just for interest.

[richard-westwood]

6.00 dund 

Wonder Elzaam  9.0 10/1 14/1 value 

Harriet's force 9.0 10/1 16/1 good value 

Bobby k  8.6 11/1 3/1 poor value 

Mutadawwal  8.6 11/1 66/1 outstanding value 

Tough race ....8 horses rated 6.5 or higher but if bobby k is 3/1 then the other 3 have to be good value bets especially mutadawwal who will need a revival on recent form but is now looking well treated on old form so who knows .....ew bets on big priced 3 

[Villa Chris]

The punchestown national is on Sunday. 21 horses down from 40 entries. Will have a go at that later . Play top rated and the value bet rated top 4 in ratings. Nowt interests me tomorrow. 

[Wildgarden]

29 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Jesus Christ ha. Why that many? Or is it for the ew money 

13-15 lines covering perhaps 5-6 races with 2-3 in each - one value and one fav as cover.

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

13-15 lines covering perhaps 5-6 races with 2-3 in each - one value and one fav as cover.

Got ya. Makes more sense now. 

[richard-westwood]

7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Keeping up with the practice races ....just finalising the rules im going to use for hcap races so I'm trying to rate bigger races now to see if the scores hold up 

5.00 Dund

Drakensburg 8.8 17/2 13/2 no value 

Laura bullion 8.5 9/1 15/2 no value 

These 2 look decently rated in a tricky race so I'll try ew bets and see how they fair 

Drakensburg wins easily

[richard-westwood]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

6.00 dund 

Wonder Elzaam  9.0 10/1 14/1 value 

Harriet's force 9.0 10/1 16/1 good value 

Bobby k  8.6 11/1 3/1 poor value 

Mutadawwal  8.6 11/1 66/1 outstanding value 

Tough race ....8 horses rated 6.5 or higher but if bobby k is 3/1 then the other 3 have to be good value bets especially mutadawwal who will need a revival on recent form but is now looking well treated on old form so who knows .....ew bets on big priced 3 

Wonder elzaam 3rd ....tackling bigger races but they are still running well ....very promising 

[richard-westwood]

UPoor racing tomorrow so I'll just have a quick few bets at meydan 

240 meyd

California jumbo 7.3 

One vision  7.2 

Both have poor draw to overcome but have decent ratings so interesting to see what happens ew bets around 7 and 9 

315 meyd 

Eastern world 7.6 

Mystery land 7.6 

Mailshot  7.2 

3 x win bets 

425 meyd 

Alfolk 7.5 

Rebel streak 7.4 

Ew bets 

[MCLARKE]

9 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

Cant even do my accas in shop now they are shut or would do all there lol. Guess we have to remember that online wasn't there before only phone bookies and now we have exchnages. So we are benefiting overall

I remember when all bets were at SP and you had to pay 10% tax as well, today it is so much better. I have a lot of restrictions but still manage to find decent value most of the time.

[Villa Chris]

Naas 2.15

R,Evelyn Pleasure 8.5, 3/1(11/1) 4th

Allardyce 7.5, 25/1(13/1) 7th

Five after midnight 7.45, 28/1(13/1)5th

Kitten Rock 7.3, 12/1(14/1)3rd

Gun Digger 7, 28/1(15/1)nowhere 

Big 16 horse handicap . Top 5 rated. 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

215 naas 

Lean araig 8.0 11/1 5/1 poor value 

Kitten rock 7.9 11/1 16/1 good value 

Revelyn pleasure 7.4 12/1 4/1 poor value 

Jammy george 7.1 13/1 14/1 value 

Not a race I want to get involved with really....lot of horses  out of form....a few are capable on old form so could suddenly run well after poor form ....and ground is riding heavy.....of the above ....most likely winners are revelyn or leann....kitten rock looks the value bet ....his form is up and down badly but is capable on an up day ....one to watch for me 

 

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

215 naas 

Lean araig 8.0 11/1 5/1 poor value 

Kitten rock 7.9 11/1 16/1 good value 

Revelyn pleasure 7.4 12/1 4/1 poor value 

Jammy george 7.1 13/1 14/1 value 

Not a race I want to get involved with really....lot of horses  out of form....a few are capable on old form so could suddenly run well after poor form ....and ground is riding heavy.....of the above ....most likely winners are revelyn or leann....kitten rock looks the value bet ....his form is up and down badly but is capable on an up day ....one to watch for me 

 

Same here Richard. Not going to part with my money. It’s soft now, but next couple of hours is rain/snow, so it will be pretty testing and might turn to heavy again. I’ll probably have a bet at punchestown national tomorrow.