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Robb089

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  1. 14.35 Ffos Las Looks Like power 8.5 8/1 SP 11/1 Steel Native 7.6 11/1 SP 33/1 Le Tuer 6.5 10/1 SP 3/2 Result; 1st Steel Native 33/1 2nd La Tuer 3rd Looks Like Power 11/1 Went EW on Looks Like Power as Steel Natives last 2 runs in similar races we’re Pulled Up. Another point towards the right direction for the process though!
  2. Agree with both you and Richard on this. Ultimately as you say, ratings are the ratings. If the bookies are offering a high return for a low stake, then it’s a no brainier. There’s certainly far worse things to judge a horse on than it’s age!
  3. Wincanton 2:10 Regal Flow 7.9 10/1 SP 40/1 Value Shantou Flyer 7.2 10/1 SP 5/1 No Value Season Spirit 6.3 12/1 SP 6/1 No Value Eden Du Houx 6.2 12/1 SP 5/1 No Value While Regal Flow has been running decent races of late, not sure at 14 years old I’m willing to take the chance. Saying that, his last 3 runs been close to today’s distance and all in a higher class. Going is heavy which he’s also won off, so who knows!
  4. Overworkedunder paid wins at 7/2 My selection looked outpaced and finished 10th. As suggested by Richard, better option was Quick Pick who stayed on for 4th. 2nd place was a 40/1 who hadn’t ran for over 500 days. Never understand how anyone can foresee a run like that after that much time off. Will have a look at the 15:40.
  5. 1.30 Warwick Quick Pick 7.7 , 8/1 , 11/2 No value Overworkedunderpaid 6, 10/1, 4/1 No value Flight to Nowhere 5.75, 10/1, 16/1 Value The TooJumla 5.25, 12/1, 8/1 No Value Big field with all entires from a bit all over the place. Top 2 in the betting are stand outs, but don’t offer great value. If betting on those, Quickpick looks the better option with 5lb jockey claimer. With Sky Bet offering 5 places, I’ve gone £5 E/W with Flight to Nowhere at 16’s. 3rd highest rating, with good recent form having won in class and placed on the course. Only concern is the distance
  6. How are you fairing with these category’s Richard? What have you gone for in terms of % splits? For your form rating section, how do you try and score this?
  7. I’d probably echo Villa Chris’s comments with this. The process is based on objective stats from passed runs. Any improvers , especially younger horses, aren’t necessarily going to have stats in the form book to rely on. If you look at my ratings, which was based purely on the form book, I had Miranda 4th best of a 6 horse race. If I’d of gone that extra yard to of watched her previous race, and made the logical adjustment to rating like you did then my thought process probably may have been different.
  8. I think this surmises where I’m slightly amiss in that I’m probably expecting the sheet to pick the winner for me. Rather using it a steer to make my own judgement based on other underling factors. Do you add / remove points based on the further factors of judgement? For example with Balko Des Flo. Say he’d scored a 10, did you just think I’ll knock 2 points off based on recent form? I remember that Ryanair chase well. I’d put £100 on the nose of Un De Sceaux (who wasn’t even a good price) after getting getting confident because Shattered Love had won me a decent returnin the JLT. Mo
  9. The first figure is the score, derived from the 5 categories with their % split. The second figure is the horse %. I use the horses score (first figure) and divide this by the total score of all the horses. This % is then used to see what their odds are from Brigadiers sheet so a comparison can be made if we’re getting value against the bookmakers. I probably sway toward your logic on the LTO, but thought I’d stick with Richards original splits to see how I faired. Likewise, I think Distance and Going are probably more significant than LTO. My biggest doubt with it, is that if you h
  10. Many thanks for the warm welcome fellas. My method pretty much replicates the original concept described by Richard in earlier posts. My scoring is determined as follows; Last Time Out (40%) 1st /2nd - 10pts 3rd/4th - 8 pts 5th/6th - 6 pts 7th/8th - 4 pts 9th + - 2 pts Class [If not a handicap race] (15%) Won above race class - 10pts Won in race class - 8pts Placed this class - 6pts Won 1 class below - 4pts Any other class win or place - 2 pts Handicap [used for Hcps instead of class above] (15%) Off current mark - 10pts 1lbs above last win - 8pt
  11. Hi all, New to the forums, but decided to sign up as I’d inadvertently stumbled across this discussion. I’ve been reading the comments and I’m keen to learn more about pricing up your own race and determining value based on your own assessment. For me, nothing better then picking an outsider who runs well, even if it’s only placed. I’ve been trying to follow the principles, and have drawn up my own spreadsheet. But having worked through a few races I’m not sure I’m fully on board with the concept. Would anyone be willing to have a quick look to see where I’m going wrong? I
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