richard-westwood Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 350 leopard sat ladbrokes hurdle Moyglass flyer 7.6 12/1 7/1 no value Ciel de Niege 7.3 13/1 11/1 no value Hes a hardy bloke 7.3 13/1 11/1 no value I'll take these 3 ....5pts each and 2pt win doubles on all selected horses above in all 3races.....shoot for a big prize Pirate53 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Busy night tonight rating some class 2s for ££££ and graded races for practise for Cheltenham . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 (edited) 3.30 Sandown (8 race) Coo Star Sivola 7.85, 6/1(11/2) 2nd Ask Me Early 7.5, 7/4 (11/2) nowhere Calipso Collonges 7.3, 14/1(6/1) 3rd Calipso Collonges is the value bet so will play ew along with Coo Star Sivola. Second rated no value at all . 5 points win Coo Star Sivola I’ve scrapped Calipso Collonges because they have take a place away. Only paying two now. Hope it doesn’t come back to bite me. Edited February 6, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 (edited) My ratings picks are on racing chat - good luck all. Accomplice only winner yesterday with a number of losers making it a breakeven day. ( Was a heavy day for favourites too) Edited February 6, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 (edited) Musselburgh 2.05 (10 run) Blakeney Point 9.1, 15/2(13/2)5th Christopher Wood 8.15, 3/1(15/2)won Dear Sire 7.95, 14/1(8/1)7th Voix Du Reve 7.65, 10/1(8/1)2nd I’ll play Blakeney Point ew 2.50 points ew Blakeney Point Edited February 6, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 (edited) Can’t seem to find a good way to rate graded races. Going to try and get the two big Irish handicaps in Edited February 6, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Tried the 2.05 at Mussleborough Cl2 2.0 Hurdle Lockerroom Talk. 9.2 7/1. 16/1 Available (value) Voix De Reve. 9.0. 15/2 12/1 Value Blakeny Point. 9.0 15/2 8/1 about right Newtown Boy. 7.9 9/1 8/1 about right Dear Sire. 7.8 9/1 16/1 Value It would seem wherever Blakeney Point finishes Voix De Reve will not be far away judged on last run and 1lb pull in favour of VdR. Christopher Wood and Torgini raced against each other last time and again are closely matched with Angus Cheleda taking off a useful 7lb. Lockerroom talk my top rated, reverts to hurdles could be well handicapped if can bring the same form over Hurdles, first race for a new yard. Going to try both VdR and Lockerroom E/W to small stake. Wildgarden and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 27 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said: Tried the 2.05 at Mussleborough Cl2 2.0 Hurdle Lockerroom Talk. 9.2 7/1. 16/1 Available (value) Voix De Reve. 9.0. 15/2 12/1 Value Blakeny Point. 9.0 15/2 8/1 about right Newtown Boy. 7.9 9/1 8/1 about right Dear Sire. 7.8 9/1 16/1 Value It would seem wherever Blakeney Point finishes Voix De Reve will not be far away judged on last run and 1lb pull in favour of VdR. Christopher Wood and Torgini raced against each other last time and again are closely matched with Angus Cheleda taking off a useful 7lb. Lockerroom talk my top rated, reverts to hurdles could be well handicapped if can bring the same form over Hurdles, first race for a new yard. Going to try both VdR and Lockerroom E/W to small stake. Pretty similar to me. Your top rated is interesting. If he can produce his chase form to hurdles he’ll be dangerous as you say . He was my 5th rated on 7.25, so scored quite high . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: Musselburgh 2.05 (10 run) Blakeney Point 9.1, 15/2(13/2) Christopher Wood 8.15, 3/1(15/2) Dear Sire 7.95, 14/1(8/1) Voix Du Reve 7.65, 10/1(8/1) I’ll play Blakeney Point ew 2.50 points ew Blakeney Point If you are able to do offer paddy do free bet if 2nd 3rd 4th this race. So almost like a free bet on the race as u have another chnace. Edited February 6, 2021 by Wildgarden Villa Chris and Alley Cat Glover 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 3.30 Sandown (8 race) Coo Star Sivola 7.85, 6/1(11/2) 2nd Ask Me Early 7.5, 7/4 (11/2) nowhere Calipso Collonges 7.3, 14/1(6/1) 3rd Calipso Collonges is the value bet so will play ew along with Coo Star Sivola. Second rated no value at all . 5 points win Coo Star Sivola I’ve scrapped Calipso Collonges because they have take a place away. Only paying two now. Hope it doesn’t come back to bite me. 6 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Musselburgh 2.05 (10 run) Blakeney Point 9.1, 15/2(13/2)5th Christopher Wood 8.15, 3/1(15/2)won Dear Sire 7.95, 14/1(8/1)7th Voix Du Reve 7.65, 10/1(8/1)2nd I’ll play Blakeney Point ew 2.50 points ew Blakeney Point No ££££ returned. Ratings didn’t do bad, but it’s picking the right ones isn’t it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Still tweaking ....got plenty of time yet ....so these big hcaps are ideal to test the percentages . 240 leopard sunday Kashhari 6.4 11/1 14/1 value Dandymag 5.3 13/1 12/1 no value Articulum 5.3 13/1 20/1 value Frontal aspect 4.8 15/1 12/1 no value Articulum is difficult to weigh up changing disciplines so I'll oppose ...top 2 look ew bets so I'll play Kashhari 10pts ew at 14/1 Dandymag 10pts ew 12/1 Villa Chris, vikki37 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 410leop Treacysenniscorthy 6 .1 12/1 7/1 no value Farclas 6.1 12/1 8/1 no value Baupame 5.3 14/1 16/1 value Minella times 5.3 14/1 9/1 no value Top 2 are a bit ahead on form so I'll back both ew Villa Chris and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 2.40 Leopardstown Unexpected Depth 8.5, 10/1(13/1) Dandy Mag 8.45, 14/1(13/1) Pure Genius 8.25, 6/1,(13/1) The Jam Man 7.9, 11/1(14/1) Ballyshannon Rose 7.5, 10/1(15/1) Edited February 7, 2021 by Villa Chris richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Not even going to attempt 25 runner fields yet, after yesterday’s 2nd and nowhere (from being prominent disappeared very quickly) thought I’d have a go at the 3.10 Leopardstown now only the bear 8 runners. Monkfish 10.2 5/1 4/6 Latest Exhibition 9.45 11/2 7/2 Andy Dufresne 8.75 13/2 10/1 Fils D’oudaries 7.05 8/1 25/1 Now obviously graded race level weights and Monkfish beat Latest Exhibition last time out over further. Can not be risking a 4/6 odds on a Novice Chase when anything could happen, Monkfish is the probable winner. You have the X form wise of Asterion Forlonge but needs to have a clear round before my money goes anywhere near it. Anyway going E/W small stake Andy Dufresne for interest only 10/1 with Bet365. Villa Chris and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Alley Cat Glover said: Not even going to attempt 25 runner fields yet, after yesterday’s 2nd and nowhere (from being prominent disappeared very quickly) thought I’d have a go at the 3.10 Leopardstown now only the bear 8 runners. Monkfish 10.2 5/1 4/6 Latest Exhibition 9.45 11/2 7/2 Andy Dufresne 8.75 13/2 10/1 Fils D’oudaries 7.05 8/1 25/1 Now obviously graded race level weights and Monkfish beat Latest Exhibition last time out over further. Can not be risking a 4/6 odds on a Novice Chase when anything could happen, Monkfish is the probable winner. You have the X form wise of Asterion Forlonge but needs to have a clear round before my money goes anywhere near it. Anyway going E/W small stake Andy Dufresne for interest only 10/1 with Bet365. It took me ages to do that Irish handicap. They don’t do things by halves over there. 100k prize money pot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 4.10 Leopardstown Minella Times 8.5, 13/2(15/1)2nd Treachysenniscorthy 8, 6/1(15/1-16/1) Lovelovelaugh 7.6, 33/1(17/1)3rd Scoir Mear 7.4, 28/1(17/1) Mortal 7.1, 66/1,(18/1) Edited February 7, 2021 by Villa Chris richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 2.40 Leopardstown Unexpected Depth 8.5, 10/1(13/1) Dandy Mag 8.45, 14/1(13/1) Pure Genius 8.25, 6/1,(13/1) The Jam Man 7.9, 11/1(14/1) Ballyshannon Rose 7.5, 10/1(15/1) Unexpected Depth comes second. Not beaten by much but well held by a Mullins 40/1 shot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 4.10 Leopardstown Minella Times 8.5, 13/2(15/1)2nd Treachysenniscorthy 8, 6/1(15/1-16/1) Lovelovelaugh 7.6, 33/1(17/1)3rd Scoir Mear 7.4, 28/1(17/1)5th Mortal 7.1, 66/1,(18/1) Didn’t turn out too bad, but very hard races to nail . Top rated in today’s big Irish handicaps both came second and not by much, so I’m happy enough with that. Livelovelaugh proving a good value bet Edited February 7, 2021 by Villa Chris richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4th and 6th for me both ew money paid not bad for such big races but room for improvement Villa Chris and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Will try another handicap for tomorrow Class 4 2m 1f, 1.35 at Carlisle. Currently 9 runners although with one running today fully expect Leostar to be a non runner. Hart of Steel. 8.65 13/2 4/1 Crack Du Ninian. 8.5 13/2 7/2 Velasco. 8.15 13/2 5/1 Aristo Du Plessis. 7.4 15/2 14/1 Top 3 rated not much between them and make up the first 3 in the market so can not really pick 4th rated against them although seems value. Did win course and distance last year and is 3lbs below mark and is having cheek pieces reapplied after 3 poor races. I don’t seem to be getting much of a split between runners when rating and certainly can’t seem to find much in the value front. If doing even more runners in larger fields is the difference increasingly small, how do you differentiate between runners in a 25 runner handicap? I know everyone does it different but the rating values all seem very similar. I guess you need to have confidence in your ratings and as has been said back one of your top 2 rated. Therefore going to try Hart of Steel win and reverse forecast with CdN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Alley Cat Glover said: Will try another handicap for tomorrow Class 4 2m 1f, 1.35 at Carlisle. Currently 9 runners although with one running today fully expect Leostar to be a non runner. Hart of Steel. 8.65 13/2 4/1 Crack Du Ninian. 8.5 13/2 7/2 Velasco. 8.15 13/2 5/1 Aristo Du Plessis. 7.4 15/2 14/1 Top 3 rated not much between them and make up the first 3 in the market so can not really pick 4th rated against them although seems value. Did win course and distance last year and is 3lbs below mark and is having cheek pieces reapplied after 3 poor races. I don’t seem to be getting much of a split between runners when rating and certainly can’t seem to find much in the value front. If doing even more runners in larger fields is the difference increasingly small, how do you differentiate between runners in a 25 runner handicap? I know everyone does it different but the rating values all seem very similar. I guess you need to have confidence in your ratings and as has been said back one of your top 2 rated. Therefore going to try Hart of Steel win and reverse forecast with CdN Tried rating this race, came up with this but it's early days for me. 1 diodorus seems value pick with favourite crack du ninian bang on the money for odds. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) Wolves 18.30 Secret Victory 16.31 5.25/1 11/4 No Value Amaysmont 15.28 11/2 11/4 No Value Al Muffrih 14.96 6/1 25/1 Value! Snow Ocean 14.23 6/1 5/1 No Value Poetic Force 13.98 6.25/1 10/1 Value Atheeb 13.80 13/2 5/1 No Value Kaser 13.44 7/1 7/1 About right Incredibly close h/cap. Al Muffrih down to last winning mark but no form on AW or at the distance. Top 2 probably have it, Poetic Force worth a small dabble. Edited February 8, 2021 by Pirate53 corrected spelling Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Wolves 18.30 Secret Victory 16.31 5.25/1 11/4 No Value Amaysmont 15.28 11/2 11/4 No Value Al Muffrih 14.96 6/1 25/1 Value! Snow Ocean 14.23 6/1 5/1 No Value Poetic Force 13.98 6.25/1 10/1 Value Atheeb 13.80 13/2 5/1 No Value Kaser 13.44 7/1 7/1 About right Incredibly close h/cap. Al Muffrih down to last winning mark but no form on AW or at the distance. Top 2 probably have it, Poetic Force worth a small dabble. Mines below Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Pirate53 said: Wolves 18.30 Secret Victory 16.31 5.25/1 11/4 No Value Amaysmont 15.28 11/2 11/4 No Value Al Muffrih 14.96 6/1 25/1 Value! Snow Ocean 14.23 6/1 5/1 No Value Poetic Force 13.98 6.25/1 10/1 Value Atheeb 13.80 13/2 5/1 No Value Kaser 13.44 7/1 7/1 About right Incredibly close h/cap. Al Muffrih down to last winning mark but no form on AW or at the distance. Top 2 probably have it, Poetic Force worth a small dabble. Top 2 1st & 2nd, Poetic 3rd, Al Muff 4th! richard-westwood, Villa Chris and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not a fan of the all weather racing but I reckon you’d win more on it with the ratings. Could be wrong like, but just an observation. Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Only southwell on today so I'll have a play 445 south Mukha magic 9.4 3/1 2/1 no value Mr carbonator 6.8 9/2 15/2 value Mukha magic looks to have strong form coming into this and should run a good race Mukha magic 10pt win 2/1 bet365 Pirate53 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 515 south Love your work 9.2 7/2 9/4 no value Legal reform 8.2 4/1 5/2 no value Iva refection 7.8 9/2 7/2 no value Love your work looks to have the strongest form and shoukd run a big race Love your work 9/4 to win Pirate53 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 645 south Another angel 8.5 7/2 9/4 no value Slowmo 7.2 4/1 3/1 no value Another angel should take a lot of beating ... Wildgarden and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 645 south Another angel 8.5 7/2 9/4 no value Slowmo 7.2 4/1 3/1 no value Another angel should take a lot of beating ... Have pretty much same as you, managed to post picks on racing chat this time. richard-westwood and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Have pretty much same as you, managed to post picks on racing chat this time. Only small races so no ew really but good to just rest the formulas in small races ....I'm quite happy in the small races but I'm working on a diff formula for the big races ....I've had some success but need more races to test it on ...was hoping taunton was gonna run as I'd picked a test race there but called off .....I think with so many horses in big races fairly close together I thought it just needs a diff approach to sort them out .....in the big races I want a formula that I know I dont need to look outside the top 3 or 4 rated regardless of race size so the bets almost become automatic .....I'm trying about 5 or 6 diff combinations to see which one is the best ...and 1 of them has given .....race 1 .2nd and 4th ....race 2 3rd ....race 3 ..1st and 4th ....race 4 2nd 5th 6th .....all big 18 runner plus hcaps so I dont think it's just luck ..all prices up to 25/1 .....but I need more test races to make sure not just fluke but it looks very exciting and still a month to go before chelt .....so I'm currently just testing various guns ?? before the war Zico10, Wildgarden and Pirate53 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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