Robb089 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 58 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I'm using currently.....last time out form figure .....form rating .....distance ....going ....hcap ......I dropped the course as I can check that myself after .....likewise class I check after How are you fairing with these category’s Richard? What have you gone for in terms of % splits? For your form rating section, how do you try and score this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said: Would hope so there was only 6 in the race and one of those I put a line through without studying anything else about it! ?. I guess the point I was making is none of the calculations make any allowance for distance beaten or looking at last runs and awarding bonus points, but do you do that from your own ratings before using Richards method or do you try and pick winner and then apply Richards ratings. It seems to me that finding winners is value in itself 5/2 winner is better than a 6/1 loser as the old adage goes. Finding big priced winners is excellent and have enjoyed following this thread and trying to do my own thing, might have to post some shortly after all got to prove things. I only used to bet 1 horse in a race but find picking 2 has several benefits. Including taking risks yesterday. Quite often do the 10p eachway trebles, picking 2 in each race only costs £1.60 and gives me a way of tracking what I do. That’s the trouble isn’t it. Ok value is great but a 5/2 winner is better than nothing . I’ve not started putting money on yet but providing it’s a decent sized field you could pick your top rated and also have some money on your value bet providing its high up in your ratings. No good picking 6th best rated in a 12 horse race because you have him down as 10/1 but bookies have him 18/1. That’s my look on it anyway . I’m surprised Miranda scored so highly in the ratings tbf. Didn’t realise how many horses raced hence the top 3-4 comment. Floressa scored low on going which put her 3-4 rated. She came second but the ground was certainly against her I think . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, Robb089 said: If I’d of gone that extra yard to of watched her previous race, and made the logical adjustment to rating like you did then my thought process probably may have been different. Have the distinct advantage of being a shareholder in her. Didn’t need any research on her, had a report and basically tried to make a case for any of the others and although a close call thought she would/ should be very close to win, it turned out to look visually a lot easier than thought it would have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said: Have the distinct advantage of being a shareholder in her. Didn’t need any research on her, had a report and basically tried to make a case for any of the others and although a close call thought she would/ should be very close to win, it turned out to look visually a lot easier than thought it would have been. Grade 2 wasn’t it? That’s a fair step up in class for her, but some of the graded races in this country are not all that. Where’s the next step? Not going Cheltenham don’t think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 47 minutes ago, Robb089 said: How are you fairing with these category’s Richard? What have you gone for in terms of % splits? For your form rating section, how do you try and score this? I think they are near enough spot on for me ....I have 30% last time form .....30% form rating .....10% dist ....10% going .....20 % hcap ........the form rating I use are my own computer ones but you could use racing posts or time form...or a combination .....any kind of form measure ....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 20 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Naas 1.15 Bachasson 9.1, 7/4(7/2) won Grand Roi 8, 6/1(4/1-9/2) 2nd Beacon Edge 7.8 2/1(4/1-9/2) 3rd Not the hardest race to call, and just concentrating on top 3 rated in a 6 horse race. Grand Roi the new kid on the block who has plenty of improvement in him, but he’ll need it in this race. That’s the value bet anyway. Only a 5 horse race in the end Wildgarden and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 56 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Grade 2 wasn’t it? That’s a fair step up in class for her, but some of the graded races in this country are not all that. Where’s the next step? Not going Cheltenham don’t think. That’s where I start getting confused she won a Class 3 at Kempton Xmas 2019, I bought into her on the back of that run. My wife bought me a share in another horse for that Xmas and being new to it won a few quid at 14/1 so bought a share in her (only 1/3000) but it’s an interest, anyway learning about her all the time, ran at Musselborough last year in Class 2 and probably hit the front too soon. COVID finished last season off believe she might have gone to Aintree if it had not. So this year 2 flat runs to get her ready for hurdles, won a Class 2 at Ludlow, should/ could of won Class 2 at Musselborough last time, now I don’t know how big a jump it is from Class 2 to a Class 1 Grade 2. Up next is a guess, she did hold an entry in the betfair hurdle but was taken out at the latest forfeit stage so not now. No Cheltenham entry, never has been, never been entered there not sure why seem to think it would not suit her, on what basis I don’t know. So Kingwell Hurdle has been mentioned on Facebook page after yesterday’s run, but that could be because at Wincanton and she has run there before and local to Nicholls. Otherwise Aintree would be possible if suitable race? Would think she will race maybe twice more over hurdles this season maybe have a break somewhere, talk of some flat races possible as well, Megan Nicholls seems to think she would have possibilities off her mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alley Cat Glover Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Don’t know if Sedgefield will be on but tried rating the 1.30 10 runners Class 3, 2 mile hurdle. Top 4 I have as follows Hasenkey 8.4 13/2 9/1 available Value Hart of Steel 8.1 7/1 9/2 available no value Martinhal 7.6 15/2 9/4 no value Laskaline 7.0 8/1 4/1 no value Other points to note Treshnish no form but been Chasing first run back over hurdles off a winning mark if decides he likes them I had as 11/1 and 33’s available but not a bet for me. Oscars Leader I have as 5th rated and finished 2nd to The Cob over 2m 3f, 2 starts back this has been shortened to 7/2 from 6’s by bet365. Any comments gratefully received. See how it goes, if it gets past inspection! Wildgarden and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 26 minutes ago, Alley Cat Glover said: Don’t know if Sedgefield will be on but tried rating the 1.30 10 runners Class 3, 2 mile hurdle. Top 4 I have as follows Hasenkey 8.4 13/2 9/1 available Value Hart of Steel 8.1 7/1 9/2 available no value Martinhal 7.6 15/2 9/4 no value Laskaline 7.0 8/1 4/1 no value Other points to note Treshnish no form but been Chasing first run back over hurdles off a winning mark if decides he likes them I had as 11/1 and 33’s available but not a bet for me. Oscars Leader I have as 5th rated and finished 2nd to The Cob over 2m 3f, 2 starts back this has been shortened to 7/2 from 6’s by bet365. Any comments gratefully received. See how it goes, if it gets past inspection! Tough race ....I like the look of hasankey ....he didnt quite last home and jumped awkwardly at the last which probably upset his momentum ...drop back to 2 mile is perfect so he looks value for sure ....of the others I'd be concerned about Oscar's leader ...headgear is returning and form has been franked ...could run well now ....good luck if you play but too much of a mud pit for me .....will watch with interest Alley Cat Glover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just a,quick one ....only just finished work .... 740 wolv Spirit of rowdown 7.9 Wood view 7.7 Most likely winner one of these 2 so I'll try 5pt each at 4.8 and 4.0 Pirate53 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Wolves 19.10 Stay Classy 16.69 9/2 Toronado Queen 16.13 9/2 Lottie Marie 15.92 5/1 Stay Classy value 10.5 Betfair Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Wolves 7.10 Tornado queen 9.1 I’m available 7.45 Stay classy 7 red poppy 6.5 haven’t got time for value Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Wolves 7.10 Tornado queen 9.1 I’m available 7.45 Stay classy 7 red poppy 6.5 haven’t got time for value Top rated beaten by a neck. Second rated third . The winner was second from last in my ratings . Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Wolves 7.10 Tornado queen 9.1 I’m available 7.45 Stay classy 7 red poppy 6.5 haven’t got time for value 43 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Wolves 19.10 Stay Classy 16.69 9/2 Toronado Queen 16.13 9/2 Lottie Marie 15.92 5/1 Stay Classy value 10.5 Betfair Toranado queen just touched off ...nice rating Pirate53, Wildgarden and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Toranado queen just touched off ...nice rating 3rd rated wins, ratings were v close for all runners except Nawafeth. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Spoilt for choice Saturday . Plenty of graded action to practise on but I’ll be putting money on my class 2 handicap races and possibly a grade 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Southwell 17.40 Samovar 15.36 4.75/1 3/1 No value Nick Vedder 13.63 11/2 9/4 No value Knowing Glance 12.66 6/1 11/2 About Right Triple Spear 12.43 6.25/1 14/1 Value Another Angel 12.23 13/2 16/1 Value Ventura Flame 12.02 13/2 14/1 Value Excessable 11.76 7/1 7/2 No value Top 2 way ahead so no bet for me. Excessable interesting, came 3rd behind Samovar last time out. Hugh Taylor selection. richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Pirate53 said: Top 2 way ahead so no bet for me. I think this is the way I would approach this ....... you try and do ratings that you're confident about then obviously you have to think that the winner will be your top rated horse ......... otherwise there's no point doing ratings The second step would be value .... to see if your top rated is value. If not don't back it even if you think it might win according to your ratings There are plenty of races every day ..... if you stuck to backing your top rated horses that were also 'value' you've got half a chance. Leave the other races alone. I suppose the other way would be to look at your tip 3 or 4 rated and see if any are massive prices for EW betting I'm a bit wary of concluding that my 8th top rated, a 100/1 shot, is 'value' because I make it a 66/1 shot. There are still 7 horses that you think are more likely to win! So I think you should be concentrating on your top rated for win purposes 'if' they are also value. Villa Chris, MCLARKE and Pirate53 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Trotter said: I think this is the way I would approach this ....... you try and do ratings that you're confident about then obviously you have to think that the winner will be your top rated horse ......... otherwise there's no point doing ratings The winner is unlikely to be your top rated (unless you rate it at evens or below). I would argue that value is relative. So if you have 2 horses that you calculate odds are 3/1 for horse A and 5/1 for horse B and available odds are 4/1 for horse A and 10/1 for horse B then both are value but your 2nd rated is arguably better value than your top rated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Trotter said: I think this is the way I would approach this ....... you try and do ratings that you're confident about then obviously you have to think that the winner will be your top rated horse ......... otherwise there's no point doing ratings The second step would be value .... to see if your top rated is value. If not don't back it even if you think it might win according to your ratings There are plenty of races every day ..... if you stuck to backing your top rated horses that were also 'value' you've got half a chance. Leave the other races alone. I suppose the other way would be to look at your tip 3 or 4 rated and see if any are massive prices for EW betting I'm a bit wary of concluding that my 8th top rated, a 100/1 shot, is 'value' because I make it a 66/1 shot. There are still 7 horses that you think are more likely to win! So I think you should be concentrating on your top rated for win purposes 'if' they are also value. Yes I agree the larger value horses say 5th onwards are dubious unless there is a particular reason to think otherwise they are value bets of course but if your form ratings are accurate then they are up against it .......what I'm finding is most races are won by the top 4 or they go damn well close so I've been short listing my top 4 then going deeper to see if I can narrow it further .....I think if your value bet is in the top 2 then those are very good bets ...I'd call them gold bets .....if top 4 and good prices then silver bets ...weve had 2 40/1 in top 4 so I think if there are huge priced horses there dont be afraid to back them because if their form rating is strong enough to get them into top 4 then they can win regardless of price Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 525 kemp weds Via serendipity 9.2 11/2 7/2 novalue Mission boy 8.4 13/2 11/1 good value Sanaadh 7.8 7/1 5/1 no value Top 2 look the strongest ....I'll try 2x 5pt wins Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Yes I agree the larger value horses say 5th onwards are dubious unless there is a particular reason to think otherwise they are value bets of course but if your form ratings are accurate then they are up against it .......what I'm finding is most races are won by the top 4 or they go damn well close so I've been short listing my top 4 then going deeper to see if I can narrow it further .....I think if your value bet is in the top 2 then those are very good bets ...I'd call them gold bets .....if top 4 and good prices then silver bets ...weve had 2 40/1 in top 4 so I think if there are huge priced horses there dont be afraid to back them because if their form rating is strong enough to get them into top 4 then they can win regardless of price The winners of the handicap races for my ratings today where 3rd rated, top rated 3rd rated, 2nd rated and 5th rated. My top rated was 440 2nd place, 540 won, 610 3rd, 640 3rd (yes duke was top rated!) 740 6th. I don't back over 20-1 sp (not bsp) btw cos too long between wins but yes I'm sure could be profitable. Edited February 2, 2021 by Wildgarden Villa Chris and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 325 ling Love destiny 7.4 7/1 13/8 poor value Iconic knight 7.3 7/1 7/1 value Maximillus 6.6 8/1 5/1 no vslue Tricky race but the value bet is iconic knight if he can overcome his wide draw but he has 7f to find his spot so I'll go ew and hope he runs a place at least Iconic knight 5pts ew 7/1 b365 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robb089 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1.30 Warwick Quick Pick 7.7 , 8/1 , 11/2 No value Overworkedunderpaid 6, 10/1, 4/1 No value Flight to Nowhere 5.75, 10/1, 16/1 Value The TooJumla 5.25, 12/1, 8/1 No Value Big field with all entires from a bit all over the place. Top 2 in the betting are stand outs, but don’t offer great value. If betting on those, Quickpick looks the better option with 5lb jockey claimer. With Sky Bet offering 5 places, I’ve gone £5 E/W with Flight to Nowhere at 16’s. 3rd highest rating, with good recent form having won in class and placed on the course. Only concern is the distance, but has only raced over 2m + once and was Pulled Up, so worth another chance at 16’s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 20 minutes ago, Robb089 said: 1.30 Warwick Quick Pick 7.7 , 8/1 , 11/2 No value Overworkedunderpaid 6, 10/1, 4/1 No value Flight to Nowhere 5.75, 10/1, 16/1 Value The TooJumla 5.25, 12/1, 8/1 No Value Big field with all entires from a bit all over the place. Top 2 in the betting are stand outs, but don’t offer great value. If betting on those, Quickpick looks the better option with 5lb jockey claimer. With Sky Bet offering 5 places, I’ve gone £5 E/W with Flight to Nowhere at 16’s. 3rd highest rating, with good recent form having won in class and placed on the course. Only concern is the distance, but has only raced over 2m + once and was Pulled Up, so worth another chance at 16’s. Your top rated is a long way in front ....I would have backed that ew at 11/2 ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robb089 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Overworkedunder paid wins at 7/2 My selection looked outpaced and finished 10th. As suggested by Richard, better option was Quick Pick who stayed on for 4th. 2nd place was a 40/1 who hadn’t ran for over 500 days. Never understand how anyone can foresee a run like that after that much time off. Will have a look at the 15:40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Kempton 18.30 Precision Storm 19.33 4.75/1 9/4 No value No Nay Bella 17.81 5/1 11/2 Some Value Toro Dorado 17.58 5.25/1 13/2 Value Charlie Arthur 16.58 5.75/1 7/1 Value Rick Blaine 16.00 6/1 25/1 Value Party Island 13.16 15/2 15/2 About right El Salvaje 12.19 8/1 7/2 No value Top rated no bet. I have a bet on El Salvaje from a tipster I follow. Bit worried now I've done this!! Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 525 kemp weds Via serendipity 9.2 11/2 7/2 novalue Mission boy 8.4 13/2 11/1 good value Sanaadh 7.8 7/1 5/1 no value Top 2 look the strongest ....I'll try 2x 5pt wins Mission boy was 4th ....been one of those funny outsider days today ... Pirate53 and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Pirate53 said: Kempton 18.30 Precision Storm 19.33 4.75/1 9/4 No value No Nay Bella 17.81 5/1 11/2 Some Value Toro Dorado 17.58 5.25/1 13/2 Value Charlie Arthur 16.58 5.75/1 7/1 Value Rick Blaine 16.00 6/1 25/1 Value Party Island 13.16 15/2 15/2 About right El Salvaje 12.19 8/1 7/2 No value Top rated no bet. I have a bet on El Salvaje from a tipster I follow. Bit worried now I've done this!! I was right to be worried! Top 4 came 2nd-5th. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Trying some non hcaps Uae 2000 guineas thurs meydan 340 Mouheeb 9.6 4/1 11/8 no value Naval crown 9.5 4/1 6/4 no value Meshakel 8.1 5/1 9/2 no value Only 6 runners so mainly just to check ratings Pirate53, Wildgarden and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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