Pricing your own race

[Tedthewolf]

15 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

A big run from any of those mentioned is certainly doable, even if they are a bit exposed now. Dounikos won this two year ago off 147 and races off 140.  Elliot is really good at placing his horses when it matters, and if any of them are in the top rated at Cheltenham I’ll be all over them. Hopefully all horses get round ok as I noticed one today at Naas went wrong and had to be pulled up. 

Interesting there is a few quid around for Dounkious  now has the cheekpieces fitted today 140 seems a very lowmark.

Edited February 14, 2021 by Tedthewolf

[richard-westwood]

None hcap test race 

310 exe 

Glancing queen 9.4 

Wild about oscar  8.4 

Oscar elite    8.2

Breefniboy  7.8 

[Villa Chris]

I’ll have a go at the Exeter listed race.

The Glancing Queen 8.25 2nd 

Wilde About Oscar 6.95 1st 

Breffniboy 6.65 4th

Grandeur D’Ame 6 5th

Edited February 14, 2021 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

None hcap test race 

310 exe 

Glancing queen 9.4 

Wild about oscar  8.4 

Oscar elite    8.2

Breefniboy  7.8 

Wild about oscar won ...glancing queen 2nd...oscar elite 3rd ....I think brefnboy might have been 4th too ....no way of predicting that improvement of wild about oscar but very promising 

[Villa Chris]

8 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

3.30 Punchestown 

Exciting Oscar 8.5, 15/2(9/1) 3rd

Shar What’s Therush , 7.6, 11/2(11/1) pulled up 

Cappacurry zak 6,6, 22/1(13/1)pulled up 

Classic Concorde 6.4, 22/1(13/1) 2nd 

Top rated close to a point clear but no value . 3rd, 4th, offer good value. 

Not bad . Classic Concorde finishing second 22/1. The winner romped home though .

[richard-westwood]

5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Not bad . Classic Concorde finishing second 22/1. The winner romped home though .

Nicely rated ...

[Villa Chris]

9 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Nicely rated ...

How did you rate that listed race. Four horses I didn’t even attempt to rate and just put them down as a 1. As it happened they all came in last 4 anyway.    It’s hard when there’s not much to go on.  

[Villa Chris]

22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Punchestown National 4.30

Screaming Colours 7.4, 8/1(15/1)2nd by half a length 

Roaring Bull 7.3, 12/1(15/1)9th 

Moyhenna 7.2, 9/1(16/1)3rd 

High Sparrow 6.9, 14/1(17/1)7th 

Se Mo Laoch 6.9, 10/1(17/1)unseated rider 

Top 5 rated . None have won at the distance but that doesn’t concern me, and it’s not unusual for the winner to have not won at distance in these kind of races. I have rated them if they have won or placed over 3+ mile. Think there are 3 horses in the race that have won at distance but they are lower down in ratings. Roaring Bull is very good on his day and could produce the magic but too unpredictable and too many pulled ups to his name. I’ll play top rated and third rated and 4th rated 2.50 points ew 

Screaming Colours 8/1 ew 

Moyheena 9/1 ew 

High Sparrow 14/1 ew 

not much value really .

Ew money back. Overall I’m pleased with how it rated . The market was right today with the winner going off 5/2. I was pretty confident about top rated. That confident that I had 5 points double with him and appreciate it(supreme) at 22/1. Shame he just got held off. 

[Villa Chris]

21 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Realy fancy Elliot to take this race. I was left with 4  horses when doinf the form all Elliots  all look  cracking  e/w value to me. Have already  backed Our Sam @25/1. The other 3 are rank ousiders i have are General Princnciple i really fancy off a feather  weight deffo not 66/1 shot in my eyes problem is he is 2nd reserve so unlikley to run. The other  2 are 50/1 shots Dounikos & Monbeg Notorious i will back both if the general is a NR as expected or one of them if he runs. Good to see  you guys  have Our Sam well up in the ratings looks to have a smashing e/w chance imo.

Nice one . Two 50/1 shots place for you. 

[richard-westwood]

25 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

How did you rate that listed race. Four horses I didn’t even attempt to rate and just put them down as a 1. As it happened they all came in last 4 anyway.    It’s hard when there’s not much to go on.  

I rated it form 30%  o.r 30% dist 20 going 20 .....then I just do the same...if no form I just give them a 1 .....Irish races I've decided are poor and not worth tackling .......left me scratching my head too many times now I'm.leaving irish racing alone lol

[Villa Chris]

I had Dounikos 6th rated on 6.7 which I think I missed out on, but how far do you go down the ratings . I’m just thinking my account was paying 6 places so I should have clocked on to that and put top 6 up and gone from there. Monbeg was 8th rated on 6.5 but too far down to consider even though there’s not much separating the horses. 

[Villa Chris]

10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I rated it form 30%  o.r 30% dist 20 going 20 .....then I just do the same...if no form I just give them a 1 .....Irish races I've decided are poor and not worth tackling .......left me scratching my head too many times now I'm.leaving irish racing alone lol

I’ve enjoyed rating these big Irish handicaps and I’m pleased with the results , but very hard to nail. There’s some decent stuff at Warwick tomorrow. A nice looking class 2 with a decent field. I’ll get round to that later I think . 

[Tedthewolf]

23 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Punchestown National 4.30

Screaming Colours 7.4, 8/1(15/1)

Roaring Bull 7.3, 12/1(15/1)

Moyhenna 7.2, 9/1(16/1)

High Sparrow 6.9, 14/1(17/1)

Se Mo Laoch 6.9, 10/1(17/1)

Top 5 rated . None have won at the distance but that doesn’t concern me, and it’s not unusual for the winner to have not won at distance in these kind of races. I have rated them if they have won or placed over 3+ mile. Think there are 3 horses in the race that have won at distance but they are lower down in ratings. Roaring Bull is very good on his day and could produce the magic but too unpredictable and too many pulled ups to his name. I’ll play top rated and third rated and 4th rated 2.50 points ew 

Screaming Colours 8/1 ew 

Moyheena 9/1 ew 

High Sparrow 14/1 ew 

not much value really .

Unucky Chris  2nd &3rd  i had 4th & 5th and i wouldnt write off Out Sam in 8th just yet.

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by Tedthewolf

[Villa Chris]

3 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Unucky Chris  2nd &3rd  i had 4th & 5th and i wouldnt write off Out Sam in 6th just yet.

 

Well done mate. Thought I had it after the last but the winner held on very well.

[Tedthewolf]

Any chance you guys will publish the top 8  rated  horses in the big handicaps  with 16 runners and more over cheltenham please ?

[Villa Chris]

Warwick 3.55( 13 runners)

Two For Gold 8.6, 9/2(11/1)won 

Admirals Secret 8.55, 15/2(11/1)3rd 

Spiritofthegames 8.45, 7/1(11/1)nowhere 

Oldgrangewood 8.15, 6/1(12/1)unseated 

Very competitive race . 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Villa Chris
Taken out non runner

[richard-westwood]

355 Warwick 

Aso  9.2 9/1 18/1 good value 

Spiritofgames 8.7 10/1 17/2 no value 

Gala ball 8.7 10/1 18/1 good value 

Admirals secret 8.7 10/1 9/1 no value 

Oldgrangewood 7.8 12/1 7/1 poor value 

Two for gold 7.8 12/1 9/2 poor value 

Very very competitive and difficult race ....aso looks good value so I have to go ew on that ....of the others I like spiritifthegames and admirals secret .......gala ball could run a good race but I just marginally prefer the others on form .....

[Villa Chris]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

355 Warwick 

Aso  9.2 9/1 18/1 good value 

Spiritofgames 8.7 10/1 17/2 no value 

Gala ball 8.7 10/1 18/1 good value 

Admirals secret 8.7 10/1 9/1 no value 

Oldgrangewood 7.8 12/1 7/1 poor value 

Two for gold 7.8 12/1 9/2 poor value 

Very very competitive and difficult race ....aso looks good value so I have to go ew on that ....of the others I like spiritifthegames and admirals secret .......gala ball could run a good race but I just marginally prefer the others on form .....

I’ve never rated a race so tight . Bottom rated was 6.8 or summat like that . 

[Wildgarden]

Rated 255 tomorrow no prices yet left few out I felt would be really low rated btw lol 

Edited February 15, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Pirate53]

Wolves 16.55

Dutch Decoy          22.51       7/1       11/4        No Value

Baby Steps            21.51       8/1        5/1         No Value

Tintoretto               19.27       9/1       10/1        Some Value

Parallel World        18.82      19/2       9/2         No Value

Mohareb                18.66      19/2       6/1         No Value

Borsdane Wood    18.64      19/2       28/1       Value

Masked Identity    18.43      9.75/1     8/1         No Value

Fighting Tem         17.94      10/1       20/1       Value

Chookie Dunedin  16.80      11/1       12/1       Some Value

Had to rate this race as DD out again. I'm going Win but think 5/2 or shorter is too short (I'm on at 3/1, will top up if drifts to 7/2). Also an ew bet on Tintoretto.

 

[richard-westwood]

8 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

355 Warwick 

Aso  9.2 9/1 18/1 good value 

Spiritofgames 8.7 10/1 17/2 no value 

Gala ball 8.7 10/1 18/1 good value 

Admirals secret 8.7 10/1 9/1 no value 

Oldgrangewood 7.8 12/1 7/1 poor value 

Two for gold 7.8 12/1 9/2 poor value 

Very very competitive and difficult race ....aso looks good value so I have to go ew on that ....of the others I like spiritifthegames and admirals secret .......gala ball could run a good race but I just marginally prefer the others on form .....

Two for gold won...aso 2nd ...admirals secret 3rd.....I've backed ew so I'm happy with that 

Admirals secret drifted to 16/1 so became a good value bet 

Edited February 15, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

21 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Warwick 3.55( 13 runners)

Two For Gold 8.6, 9/2(11/1)won 

Admirals Secret 8.55, 15/2(11/1)3rd 

Spiritofthegames 8.45, 7/1(11/1)nowhere 

Oldgrangewood 8.15, 6/1(12/1)unseated 

Very competitive race . 

Happy enough with that. Just edged out Aso . All the horses were rated closely so happy with the winner .

[Villa Chris]

16 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Two for gold won...aso 2nd ...admirals secret 3rd.....I've backed ew so I'm happy with that 

Admirals secret drifted to 16/1 so became a good value bet 

Unlucky with aso . Looked like he was going to take it .

[richard-westwood]

22 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Any chance you guys will publish the top 8  rated  horses in the big handicaps  with 16 runners and more over cheltenham please ?

Yes I think with all the ew offers it would be prudent to rate all horses and I'll most likely just publish the top 8 or more for sure 

[richard-westwood]

Good rating all round today .....and as expected lots of value on offer in these big races .....they've run well and this was like any Cheltenham big race so it bodes well 

[Tedthewolf]

1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

Yes I think with all the ew offers it would be prudent to rate all horses and I'll most likely just publish the top 8 or more for sure 

Good man cheers?

[Villa Chris]

8 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Good man cheers?

Hopefully we’ll all be on some nice priced winners . Can’t see the graded races throwing up much value , but the handicaps will. 

[richard-westwood]

It's going to be a lot of fun rating the big races this year ......I'll be going ew doubles on the big races and hoping a couple win .....just needs a bit of luck on the day and your home freeeeeee...fill yaboots ?

[Pirate53]

2 hours ago, Pirate53 said:

Wolves 16.55

Dutch Decoy          22.51       7/1       11/4        No Value

Baby Steps            21.51       8/1        5/1         No Value

Tintoretto               19.27       9/1       10/1        Some Value

Parallel World        18.82      19/2       9/2         No Value

Mohareb                18.66      19/2       6/1         No Value

Borsdane Wood    18.64      19/2       28/1       Value

Masked Identity    18.43      9.75/1     8/1         No Value

Fighting Tem         17.94      10/1       20/1       Value

Chookie Dunedin  16.80      11/1       12/1       Some Value

Had to rate this race as DD out again. I'm going Win but think 5/2 or shorter is too short (I'm on at 3/1, will top up if drifts to 7/2). Also an ew bet on Tintoretto.

 

Dutch 4th, Tintoretto 2nd had a bit of ew money! Winner Chookie was a value bet.

[Villa Chris]

What I’m struggling with at the moment is which horses to pick out the ratings. Do you just bite the bullet and go with top rated providing they are backable odds of say at least 5/2, 3/1. Do you go with the best value bet providing they are top 3-4 rated, or big races paying 6 places do you add 5th and 6th rated into the equation. I think there needs to be some judgement as well regarding picking your selections. Think we highlighted Roaring Bull yesterday as a horse who was highly rated but me and Richard both lacked the confidence to back him. For Cheltenham it might pay to go with top rated and also pick two value bets providing there is value in the top rated horses. My top rated horses have been running well , so happy to go with that, but it’s what’s underneath them, that I’m struggling with . If you have two 22/1 shots in top 4, what do you do. Play them both ew and play top rated, I suppose. Going on a bit now, but  just thought I’d get it out there.