Pirate53 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Southwell 16.45 Mukha Magic 16.70 7/2 2/1 No value Nicks Not Wonder 15.71 4/1 9/4 No value Arabian King 13.43 5/1 4/1 No value Mr Carbonator 12.96 5.25/1 8/1 Value Be Fair 12.38 11/2 9/1 Value Siavash 9.56 13/2 25/1 Value Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down! Don't think much of the value picks. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Southwell 16.45 Mukha Magic 16.70 7/2 2/1 No value Nicks Not Wonder 15.71 4/1 9/4 No value Arabian King 13.43 5/1 4/1 No value Mr Carbonator 12.96 5.25/1 8/1 Value Be Fair 12.38 11/2 9/1 Value Siavash 9.56 13/2 25/1 Value Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down! Don't think much of the value picks. Dont like Nick's not wonder as this is a very diff surface but I think mr carbonator is a good value bet and could run well Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 In general how many winners would you need before you are happy that a system is working and that the results are not just down to randomness ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: In general how many winners would you need before you are happy that a system is working and that the results are not just down to randomness ? Well youd expect say 3 races in 10 to be won by donkeys or scratch your head races so if your averaging 6 to 7 good results in 10 then you e got something .....I'd say 20 races to be sure and your want 12 to 14 good results to be sure it's not just a good run ....by good even placed horses count ......all I'm looking for really is to string 2 or 3 good priced horses together in doubles at the festival ....2 x 16/1 is over 500pts to 2pt stakes so that's the aim for me .....if I can get placed horses consistently in the big hcap races then the big win becomes doable .... everything im doing now is solely with that in mind ....im learning from every race I rate Zico10 and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 hours ago, Pirate53 said: Southwell 16.45 Mukha Magic 16.70 7/2 2/1 No value Nicks Not Wonder 15.71 4/1 9/4 No value Arabian King 13.43 5/1 4/1 No value Mr Carbonator 12.96 5.25/1 8/1 Value Be Fair 12.38 11/2 9/1 Value Siavash 9.56 13/2 25/1 Value Mukha Magic v strong, agree with Richard. Cash is down! Don't think much of the value picks. Wins easy as you like! Kerrching! Villa Chris and richard-westwood 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Only southwell on today so I'll have a play 445 south Mukha magic 9.4 3/1 2/1 no value Mr carbonator 6.8 9/2 15/2 value Mukha magic looks to have strong form coming into this and should run a good race Mukha magic 10pt win 2/1 bet365 7 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 515 south Love your work 9.2 7/2 9/4 no value Legal reform 8.2 4/1 5/2 no value Iva refection 7.8 9/2 7/2 no value Love your work looks to have the strongest form and shoukd run a big race Love your work 9/4 to win 1st and 2nd in first race .....2nd rated won in 2nd race .....like I said I think the formula is fine for small races ....its just the big hcap formula needed now (and then the graded races ).... Pirate53, Villa Chris and vikki37 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 645 south Another angel 8.5 7/2 9/4 no value Slowmo 7.2 4/1 3/1 no value Another angel should take a lot of beating ... I've rated this with 3 of the 6 test ratings and slow mo comes out top 2/3 times so I'll add him at 11/4 ...backed top 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I've rated this with 3 of the 6 test ratings and slow mo comes out top 2/3 times so I'll add him at 11/4 ...backed top 2 I'm on Scale Force. Not rated it but was sent to me as a tip this am. Edited February 9, 2021 by Pirate53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Pirate53 said: I'm on Scale Force. Not rated it but was sent as a tip to me this am. Well good luck ....I'm just loving each result cos I can tell what's working or not working then cross things off .....the list is shortening to a few chosen .....I ditched the previous form figure as it was taking the place of other important factors and the stats were saying it wasnt working as well as I expected Pirate53 and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 18 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: I'm on Scale Force. Not rated it but was sent to me as a tip this am. Shows you need to be in the know .....won easy .......mine 2nd and 4th Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Shows you need to be in the know .....won easy .......mine 2nd and 4th Wish I'd done a double now. George Rooke on both of them, very cool apprentice. Note to self: Kelleway/Rooke +2pts! richard-westwood and Wildgarden 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 There seems to be a lot of success on here with top rated selections which is good but is anybody finding success with "value" selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: There seems to be a lot of success on here with top rated selections which is good but is anybody finding success with "value" selections. Not me so far. A big advantage of rating a race is that it gives you a good feel for all the runners. Most of the value selections look, sound and smell like dogs. Conclusion.....they're probably dogs!! MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The value bets are of particular importance when they are rated top 2 or 3 .....you'll get better bets in the big handicaps as the value will be better hidden and prices naturally higher .....in theory if you get the form ratings accurate and you back the value bets rated top 2 or 3 ew you should do pretty well long term ....that's something that will become obvious long term ....in the meantime everything bounces off accurate form ratings ...we are getting there ....vast improvements since we first started across the board ....there are big things to come ....I'm sure of it Villa Chris, Wildgarden, Pirate53 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 545 wolv Say it as it is 7.8 9/2 6/1 value Highly dancer 7.2 5/1 9/1 good value Unusual to get 2 value bets in small race midweek ...so I'll play 2 x10pt wins DanV89, vikki37 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 545 wolv Say it as it is 7.8 9/2 6/1 value Highly dancer 7.2 5/1 9/1 good value Unusual to get 2 value bets in small race midweek ...so I'll play 2 x10pt wins I left this alone, wasn't enough races form for several horses lol including the favourite. Edited February 10, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: I left this alone, wasn't enough races form for several horses lol including the favourite. It's a really interesting race ....because the fav has been backed but these 2 look really nicely rated so it will be interesting to see what happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 47 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 545 wolv Say it as it is 7.8 9/2 6/1 value Highly dancer 7.2 5/1 9/1 good value Unusual to get 2 value bets in small race midweek ...so I'll play 2 x10pt wins Get in beauty ....highly dancer wins easily ...100pts returned bmc, Wildgarden, vikki37 and 4 others 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Get in beauty ....highly dancer wins easily ...100pts returned Top rated came second , too. Nice one Richard. Get those machine guns ready for Cheltenham. All out war declared . richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looking forward to what you guys put up as value in the Cheltenham handicaps some 33/1 shots please! Villa Chris and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: Looking forward to what you guys put up as value in the Cheltenham handicaps some 33/1 shots please! Can’t wait for the festival, it’s like Xmas for me . Really looking forward to the handicaps and quite confident we can put some big prices up that will win or at least place . Had a few bets already for it, now it’s NRNB, but only in the grade 1&2 races Edited February 10, 2021 by Villa Chris vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I so hope it goes ahead as planned....short term I hope the betfair hurdle saturday goes ahead ....that will be good practice ? Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Will be interesting to see if the big priced horses i come up with ovet chelteham tally with what you guys rate as value bets. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I so hope it goes ahead as planned....short term I hope the betfair hurdle saturday goes ahead ....that will be good practice ? It will definitely go ahead . Can’t see the weekend race card surviving though, although they are on about getting the big races like the bet fair hurdle and Denman chase rearranged for the following week if they can. I’d like to see how Metier runs in the hurdle race as he’s this side of the ponds main fancy for the supreme . richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 545 wolv Say it as it is 7.8 9/2 6/1 value Highly dancer 7.2 5/1 9/1 good value Unusual to get 2 value bets in small race midweek ...so I'll play 2 x10pt wins Well done Richard, i'd already backed Highly Dancer earlier in the day at 11/1 and then when I saw your post I went in again at 9s - happy days!! ?? Villa Chris, vikki37 and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Have backed Big Time Maybe in the 7.45 & Quarry Beach in the last. Good luck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I've quick rated the 815 ..... Doctor nuno 7.9 Secret potion 7.6 Kingsley clarion 7.4 Cappadocia 7.1 Fard 7.6 Test race ...Impossibly difficult race but class ratings give it to fard and doctor nuno...again let's see what happens but its anyones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I've quick rated the 815 ..... Doctor nuno 7.9 Secret potion 7.6 Kingsley clarion 7.4 Cappadocia 7.1 Fard 7.6 Test race ...Impossibly difficult race but class ratings give it to fard and doctor nuno...again let's see what happens but its anyones Nightmare race ......thought it would be fun to rate but not for betting ......bad luck with quarry beach ...he almost got up Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Newcastle 17.30 Dutch Decoy 17.08 5/1 3/1 No value Tadleel 15.48 6/1 7/2 No value Daafr 13.33 7/1 8/1 Some value Anif 13.14 7/1 15/2 Some value Ulshaw Bridge 13.09 7/1 11/2 No value Red Bond 12.64 15/2 11/2 No value Katheefa 11.03 17/2 12/1 Value Dandys Gold 10.49 9/1 33/1 Value Tricky race this. I have a share in Dutch Decoy so a bit biased! He should win if reproducing the last run. Was top weight lto and made light of it. 4lb higher today and top weight again. We'll see. Value bet is Katheefa but hard to fancy for me. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Pirate53 said: Newcastle 17.30 Dutch Decoy 17.08 5/1 3/1 No value Tadleel 15.48 6/1 7/2 No value Daafr 13.33 7/1 8/1 Some value Anif 13.14 7/1 15/2 Some value Ulshaw Bridge 13.09 7/1 11/2 No value Red Bond 12.64 15/2 11/2 No value Katheefa 11.03 17/2 12/1 Value Dandys Gold 10.49 9/1 33/1 Value Tricky race this. I have a share in Dutch Decoy so a bit biased! He should win if reproducing the last run. Was top weight lto and made light of it. 4lb higher today and top weight again. We'll see. Value bet is Katheefa but hard to fancy for me. Got to be tadleel for me! Down in class knocking on door. Katheffa value. MCLARKE and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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