richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: What I’m struggling with at the moment is which horses to pick out the ratings. Do you just bite the bullet and go with top rated providing they are backable odds of say at least 5/2, 3/1. Do you go with the best value bet providing they are top 3-4 rated, or big races paying 6 places do you add 5th and 6th rated into the equation. I think there needs to be some judgement as well regarding picking your selections. Think we highlighted Roaring Bull yesterday as a horse who was highly rated but me and Richard both lacked the confidence to back him. For Cheltenham it might pay to go with top rated and also pick two value bets providing there is value in the top rated horses. My top rated horses have been running well , so happy to go with that, but it’s what’s underneath them, that I’m struggling with . If you have two 22/1 shots in top 4, what do you do. Play them both ew and play top rated, I suppose. Going on a bit now, but just thought I’d get it out there. I think if you have big priced horses in your top 3 then they are worth playing ...you have seen numerous times that they can win or go close .....generally I go with the best hcapped horses....so if my top rated was 5/1 +3 ....and my 2nd rated was 10/1 +1 ....I'd go ew on the 2nd rated just because it's not being asked to do much more than it's done before.....I also use highest value place last 3 runs as a final bonus point .....so if top rated was placed in 20000 last time .....and the 2nd rated was placed 3rd in a 46000 I'd favour the latter for certain Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 (edited) Catterick 2.15 Whos In The Box 8.2, 4/1(5/1)2nd Ask Paddy 7, 8/1(13/2)3rd Ibis Du Rheu 6.2, 7/1(7/1)fell Justforjames 6.2, 22/1(7/1)5th Decent little race with 8 runners. 3 horses share 3rd best rated, but I really think Who’s In The Box is a strong top rated and will stay the trip with doubts about some of the others. Edited February 16, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 (edited) Catterick 2.45 Maskada 8.15, 2/1(6/1)2nd llaya 7.6, 22/1(13/2) non runner The Some Dance Kid 7.5, 25/1(13/2)3rd 8 runner race. Top rated looks classy but 2 and 3 offer great value . Edited February 16, 2021 by Villa Chris Taking out non runner Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Will have 5 points win on both top rated in races above . Don’t usually bet in the week but I’ll keep it short and sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Rated 255 tomorrow no prices yet left few out I felt would be really low rated btw lol Got rid of the 20-1s or over as I don't go for them because of the amount of losers shown. Value picks are chloellie 11.5 exchange price, swissal 16.5 exchange price, kraka 17 exchange price. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 355 Kemp Pink jazz 9.1 11/2 9/1 good value Brunel charm 8.7 6/1 4/1 no value Rogue tide 7.8 7/1 11/1 good value Mabre 7.3 15/2 4/1 no value Interesting race because a lot of these horses are better at certain courses ....mabre is well fancied today and shoukd run a big race ...likewise brunel charm but today I'll play the value bets on bet365 ...can get 13/2 pink jazz 5places ....and 8/1 rogue tide 5 places ew .....so that's still value prices and gotta be worth a play on a quiet day Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looking forward I dont make a course adjustment usually .....i do for all weather i.e newcastle and wolv are transferable but not to ling and kemp and chelm so adjustment is made .....but for cheltenham I definately need to do one I think .....I'm thinking I might do it as a 1.5 pt bonus for a placed chelt horse and 2pt for a win .....its a huge factor that horses without experience just dont do well ....that's a fact no matter what form they are coming in with .....how are others managing that ???...and what importance do you put on it ? Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: 355 Kemp Pink jazz 9.1 11/2 9/1 good value Brunel charm 8.7 6/1 4/1 no value Rogue tide 7.8 7/1 11/1 good value Mabre 7.3 15/2 4/1 no value Interesting race because a lot of these horses are better at certain courses ....mabre is well fancied today and shoukd run a big race ...likewise brunel charm but today I'll play the value bets on bet365 ...can get 13/2 pink jazz 5places ....and 8/1 rogue tide 5 places ew .....so that's still value prices and gotta be worth a play on a quiet day Similar rating for value ones. Edited February 16, 2021 by Wildgarden richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 (edited) 37 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Looking forward I dont make a course adjustment usually .....i do for all weather i.e newcastle and wolv are transferable but not to ling and kemp and chelm so adjustment is made .....but for cheltenham I definately need to do one I think .....I'm thinking I might do it as a 1.5 pt bonus for a placed chelt horse and 2pt for a win .....its a huge factor that horses without experience just dont do well ....that's a fact no matter what form they are coming in with .....how are others managing that ???...and what importance do you put on it ? I do course adjustment for low draw or high draw depending on the course and the affect on the horse. Would be good to do front runners as bonus points perhaps too on some circuits and negative for back peddlers. Had mixed results since added draw component. Sometimes I'm getting the forecast and on the money but sometimes I'm getting nothing since this addition lol will post bit more when cleared underlying issues Edited February 16, 2021 by Wildgarden richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 43 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Looking forward I dont make a course adjustment usually .....i do for all weather i.e newcastle and wolv are transferable but not to ling and kemp and chelm so adjustment is made .....but for cheltenham I definately need to do one I think .....I'm thinking I might do it as a 1.5 pt bonus for a placed chelt horse and 2pt for a win .....its a huge factor that horses without experience just dont do well ....that's a fact no matter what form they are coming in with .....how are others managing that ???...and what importance do you put on it ? I allocate a 5% allocation to horses who have won at the course. It works out half a point(0.5) if they have won , 0.3 if they placed , and 0.1 if they have ran there. I find it rightfully gives horses a score, but not too much of a score where there’s too much emphasis on course winners. I’m happy with it . I might increase the % to 10% for Cheltenham but I’m not sure yet , as I think things are working ok at the moment . I find majority of the class horses will run well at Cheltenham, although some horses will just not be able to operate fully there. Another thing , I think in the handicaps you’ve got to take into account some trends, and one trend could be that no horse racing off 148(for example) has ever won the race, which obviously means it’s carrying too much weight. I’ll be keeping my eye on that one. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 (edited) One thing to think about with turf is how to allow more percentage consideration when the ground is soft or heavy compared to weight. A heavier horse will struggle more in these conditions than good or to good to firm unless it's a specialist in this going? May end up having separate system just for the different types of going? Edited February 16, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Got rid of the 20-1s or over as I don't go for them because of the amount of losers shown. Value picks are chloellie 11.5 exchange price, swissal 16.5 exchange price, kraka 17 exchange price. Shackabooah now also a pick 16.0 Betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: One thing to think about with turf is how to allow more percentage consideration when the ground is soft or heavy compared to weight. A heavier horse will struggle more in these conditions than good or to good to firm unless it's a specialist in this going? May end up having separate system just for the different types of going? Never thought of that but you are right. Unless they do their best running on heavy a top weight horse will be vulnerable . What I do find is I do my ratings night before and it’s soft going, but then the following day it can change, like today for example where it’s now heavy. Luckily it hasn’t affected the ratings much and top rated are still top rated . Don’t have time in week to do them on the day so it’s a night before job. Weekend is different mind . Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ive already got trends for all races at chelt and I use them now for big races ....once I've got my top 5 or 6 rated ...running trends can instantly narrow to 2 in a flash....I.e in some races 9 yr olds plus have never won ....in other races like you say horses over 11st 4lbs have never won ...some people dont agree but if you need help narrowing your final selections it's a fantastic tool especially at Cheltenham Wildgarden, Pirate53, MCLARKE and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I think if you have big priced horses in your top 3 then they are worth playing ...you have seen numerous times that they can win or go close .....generally I go with the best hcapped horses....so if my top rated was 5/1 +3 ....and my 2nd rated was 10/1 +1 ....I'd go ew on the 2nd rated just because it's not being asked to do much more than it's done before.....I also use highest value place last 3 runs as a final bonus point .....so if top rated was placed in 20000 last time .....and the 2nd rated was placed 3rd in a 46000 I'd favour the latter for certain I agree. I tend to use my ratings in conjunction with other factors. I.E if a tipster I follow tips a horse I rate the race to see how the selection looks, then maybe I'll increase or decrease my bet. I also check the top 3 rated using my old selection criteria and see if they 'stack up'. If they do then it's a bet! richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: Shackabooah now also a pick 16.0 Betfair exchange 4th, others nowhere, dissappointing but was a very open race with how many runners there are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Kempton 15.55 Rogue Tide 16.77 7/1 10/1 Value Pink Jazz 14.45 8.25/1 9/1 Some value Mabre 13.96 9/1 4/1 No Value Aureum 13.85 9/1 3/1 No value Malvern 12.92 9.75/1 20/1 Value Tommy Rock 12.56 10/1 11/1 About right Brunel Charm 12.49 10/1 7/2 No value The bet is Pink Jazz ew for me. Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 (edited) 19 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Catterick 2.15 Whos In The Box 8.2, 4/1(5/1)2nd Ask Paddy 7, 8/1(13/2)3rd Ibis Du Rheu 6.2, 7/1(7/1)fell Justforjames 6.2, 22/1(7/1)5th Decent little race with 8 runners. 3 horses share 3rd best rated, but I really think Who’s In The Box is a strong top rated and will stay the trip with doubts about some of the others. 19 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Catterick 2.45 Maskada 8.15, 2/1(6/1)2nd llaya 7.6, 22/1(13/2) non runner The Some Dance Kid 7.5, 25/1(13/2)3rd 8 runner race. Top rated looks classy but 2 and 3 offer great value . Both races fell apart , especially Bottom with non runners so the third rated who was 25/1 and came third, I’d take that with a pinch of salt . Happy with the first race regarding ratings but lost money on the day . Edited February 16, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 A class 2 and 3 at Wetherby tomorrow, which looks decent enough . Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Kempton 15.55 Rogue Tide 16.77 7/1 10/1 Value Pink Jazz 14.45 8.25/1 9/1 Some value Mabre 13.96 9/1 4/1 No Value Aureum 13.85 9/1 3/1 No value Malvern 12.92 9.75/1 20/1 Value Tommy Rock 12.56 10/1 11/1 About right Brunel Charm 12.49 10/1 7/2 No value The bet is Pink Jazz ew for me. Top rated 3rd, 4th rated 2nd. Muddling race. Tommy Rock drifted to big value, but who would have bet on it with a drift like that? richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 355 Kemp Pink jazz 9.1 11/2 9/1 good value Brunel charm 8.7 6/1 4/1 no value Rogue tide 7.8 7/1 11/1 good value Mabre 7.3 15/2 4/1 no value Interesting race because a lot of these horses are better at certain courses ....mabre is well fancied today and shoukd run a big race ...likewise brunel charm but today I'll play the value bets on bet365 ...can get 13/2 pink jazz 5places ....and 8/1 rogue tide 5 places ew .....so that's still value prices and gotta be worth a play on a quiet day Rogue tide 3rd ..good run for value bet .......no run from pink jazz he was a bit disappointing but that's racing Wildgarden and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 205 weth weds Marracudja 9.7 7/1 9/2 no value Charmant 9.5 7/1 20/1 excellent value Chozen 9.0 15/2 33/1 excellent value (inflated ??) Commission de office 7.6 10/1 13/2 ,no value Unbrigado 7.6 10/1 3/1 no value Chozen is carrying bottom weight but has been off for nearly a year so could be a good value bet but may need a run so risky .....charmant looks a very good value bet ...way overpriced at 20/1 imo ....most likely winner majjacudja ....top 2 for me .... Villa Chris and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Similar rating for value ones. Didn't rate Tommy g but would've been 3rd rated what a mistake! Have to keep an eye on these bigger prices. Just don't want to be backing 25-1# that have no hope and drift to 50-1 BSP or more etc. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 (edited) Wetherby 2.05 Charmant 8.25, 16/1(8/1) The Paddy Pie 7.95, 14/1(17/2) Marracudja 7.95, 4/1(17/2) Hollywoodien 7.95, 8/1(17/2) Destined To Shine 7.7, 13/2(8/1) Swift Crusador 7.5, 16/1(9/1) Charmant looks a cracking bet. 2nd, 3rd and 4th equal rating . Top 5/6 rated who are close to each other . Bottom rated is 6.7 so all have a chance going off ratings . Edited February 16, 2021 by Villa Chris richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Wetherby 2.40 Alberts Back 8.3, 4/1(7/1) no value Midnight Shadow 8.2 ,11/2(7/1) no value No Comment 8.15, 9/2(7/1) no value West To The Bridge 7.5, 11/1(8/1) value You’d have to go down to 4th rated in a 9 horse race to get value. Top 3 look very solid . Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 hours ago, Villa Chris said: I might increase the % to 10% for Cheltenham but I’m not sure yet Having won at Cheltenham before is certainly an advantage with an AE of 1.15 for chasers. Excluding horses carrying 11st 10lbs or more increases this to 1.24. Villa Chris and richard-westwood 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Having won at Cheltenham before is certainly an advantage with an AE of 1.15 for chasers. Excluding horses carrying 11st 10lbs or more increases this to 1.24. Thanks for the stats. How does it compare to other courses regarding horses winning there . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Top courses are Catterick and Carlisle with AEs of 1.36 and 1.23 although the number of selections is a lot smaller than Cheltenham. Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 hours ago, Wildgarden said: One thing to think about with turf is how to allow more percentage consideration when the ground is soft or heavy compared to weight. A heavier horse will struggle more in these conditions than good or to good to firm unless it's a specialist in this going? May end up having separate system just for the different types of going? This sounds logical but might not be true because on heavy going the horses run slower and it's easier to carry more weight if you run slower ...... think about trying to sprint carrying a suitcase versus ambling along carrying the same suitcase I reckon anything that slows the field down makes it easier for the top weighted horses in handicaps ...... heavy ground or a tight turning track would be two examples MCLARKE and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Had to have a small ew stake on Charmant . Top rated, Richard has him highly rated, and 18/1. Paying 3 places and conditions to suit . Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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