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DanV89

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Everything posted by DanV89

  1. Fair point Richard. All i'd say in argument to that (just playing devils advocate), is that there is a reason the horse has a turf mark 12lb lower than the AW. All 5 of his wins have come on the AW, in fact he has only ever placed twice on turf in 26 runs. Conversely, Notre Belle Bete has some good turf form (only beaten 2 lengths by Poetic Flare no less) and is much more lightly raced having only had 9 career starts.
  2. Intriguing race indeed. Although I am fascinated to see how Strong Power gets on tomorrow, I struggle to see how he could be a max bet? The day he won that Class 2, two runs back, he was receiving 19lbs from Tone The Barone, tomorrow they run off level weights. Not a criticism of your opinion just interested.
  3. What are the smart bets and what is the general rule you’re using regarding draw?
  4. @MCLARKE the percentages you mention below: Draw 1-3 9% SR 0.87 AE Draw 4-9 11% SR 1.12 AE Draw 10-14 7% SR 0.84 AE What trip are these over? You mention 7f races tomorrow, what is the favoured draw over this trip? Apologies, think I have missed the early conversation as can't seem to locate it.
  5. I can't seem to find the general gist of the draw bias at Southwell, have two threads been merged? I have just had a an email notification from McLarke about a money-making machine but can't find the bias posts? Any pointers appreciated.
  6. 12.40 Ling - Weloof - 14/1 Betfair SB
  7. @Zilzalianwhat are your 4 decent bets and are these your most confident selections?
  8. There is one runner I am interested in at Ayr this evening at a big price, Classy Al goes for Jim Goldie in the 6.25 who obviously has a great record at the track. Classy Al is having only his 6th career run tonight and his 3rd go in a handicap. He ran over course and distance on 26th July in a Class 6 race, he had a poor, low draw that day and as a result in my opinion he was tenderly ridden by Mulrennan. Notwithstanding that, he stayed on from well back under hand and heels to finish 5th, beaten 4 lengths off a mark of 62. The winner of that race was Jordan Electrics who has won a Class 4 race since, and the horse that finished a place in front of Classy Al was Mr Trevor who won at Thirsk yesterday, so there looks to be a bit of substance to the form. He has a nice, high draw in 11 this evening and has been dropped a couple of lbs to 60. His previous runs suggest he is a hold up horse so he will probably need a bit of luck in running but this should be run at an honest enough pace and one of the confirmed front runners Thin Blue Line is drawn right next to him in 12. I think he is more than capable of going very close off this kind of mark given a clear, true run. He actually opened up at 28/1 initially and that was quickly shorted to a best price of 14/1 at one point but has drifted again this morning, 20/1 still available which looks more than fair.
  9. Got you, cheers mate. Seems an extraordinary hike in the weights?!
  10. @Darran thanks for the write up. You’ve mentioned that the horse was rated 68 and was then ‘dropped’ to 83?
  11. Chapman is very much marmite but personally I like him as he brings an enthusiasm like no one else. I enjoy the ‘Get In’ shows with Weaver & Harvey. Think Ruby Walsh is great to listen to too, very insightful. Can’t stand Ed Chamberlain & quite honestly although I’m sure Persad is a nice guy I don’t think he’s knowledgable enough for the jobs he gets.
  12. 2.30 EVE LODGE 3.05 BELLOCCIO 3.40 JUMBY 4.20 NOVEMBA 5.00 PRADO 5.35 SAM COOKE 6.10 SHALAA ASKER
  13. Agree re Buick mate. Don’t like how Frankie doesn’t seem to ride out a finish once he feels his chance of winning has gone.
  14. Is he losing it? At Royal Ascot this week he’s had 20 rides so far, and ridden 1 winner - that being 11/10 favourite Love. Also worth bearing in mind that of those rides, 7 have been favourites!!
  15. 2.30 - Lope Y Fernandez 3.05 - Vintage Clarets 3.40 - Battaash 4.20 - Highland Avenue 5.00 - Postileo 5.35 - Juan Elcano 6.10 - Saldier
  16. I’ve not seen which finished where yet Richard as got crap signal at the mo, but how are you going to determine which to back? As can’t viably back 4 or 5 in same race. So are you going to stick with top 2?
  17. I backed I backed Eagleway at 140/1 ew based on your ratings so I think I owe you a beer.
  18. What are you doing differently now to what you were doing a couple of weeks ago when you were firing in winner after winner Richard? Has anything changed in your methods?
  19. Yours on wrong side of the track Richard.
  20. Think the main reason Wembley has been backed into favouritism is because he’s been tipped up by Hugh Taylor. Has Buick chosen Master Of The Seas over One Ruler? If that’s confirmed then that would be a big pointer in itself surely?
  21. Only thing with the Exchange is you obviously don't get BOG. Not an issue when one is smashed off the boards like Cosmos today but I backed Chookie at 5/1 and got paid out at 8/1 with Bet365.
  22. Well i'm along for the ride!! Look forward to it!!
  23. I must admit I liked Cosmos myself and then saw it had been backed into 15/8 from 11/2! I actually did all 6 of your selections in ew doubles (only small stakes), so nice return - maybe i'll have to start doing the forecast too!!
  24. Fantastic again Richard, well done and keep them coming mate 🍻
  25. Tricast on those 3 pay decent odds!! Think that’s my play in that race.
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