richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Villa Chris said: Same here Richard. Not going to part with my money. It’s soft now, but next couple of hours is rain/snow, so it will be pretty testing and might turn to heavy again. I’ll probably have a bet at punchestown national tomorrow. I hope that punchestown goes ahead should be a nice race to rate with the extreme dist etc Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I hope that punchestown goes ahead should be a nice race to rate with the extreme dist etc Think it will. Temperatures staying healthy enough. Just hope they don’t have too much snow. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Think it will. Temperatures staying healthy enough. Just hope they don’t have too much snow. Snowing up here in the North of Ireland but hopfully rain will shift it later. Temperture is doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 215 naas Lean araig 8.0 11/1 5/1 poor value Kitten rock 7.9 11/1 16/1 good value Revelyn pleasure 7.4 12/1 4/1 poor value Jammy george 7.1 13/1 14/1 value Not a race I want to get involved with really....lot of horses out of form....a few are capable on old form so could suddenly run well after poor form ....and ground is riding heavy.....of the above ....most likely winners are revelyn or leann....kitten rock looks the value bet ....his form is up and down badly but is capable on an up day ....one to watch for me Lean araig non runner ....chuffed to see the flagged value bet kitten rock finish 3rd in such a competitive race ....? Tedthewolf and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 20 hours ago, richard-westwood said: UPoor racing tomorrow so I'll just have a quick few bets at meydan 240 meyd California jumbo 7.3 One vision 7.2 Both have poor draw to overcome but have decent ratings so interesting to see what happens ew bets around 7 and 9 315 meyd Eastern world 7.6 Mystery land 7.6 Mailshot 7.2 3 x win bets 425 meyd Alfolk 7.5 Rebel streak 7.4 Ew bets Good start California jumbo ew at 18/1!! Wildgarden, Villa Chris and BBBC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Naas 2.15 R,Evelyn Pleasure 8.5, 3/1(11/1) 4th Allardyce 7.5, 25/1(13/1) 7th Five after midnight 7.45, 28/1(13/1)5th Kitten Rock 7.3, 12/1(14/1)3rd Gun Digger 7, 28/1(15/1)nowhere Big 16 horse handicap . Top 5 rated. Hard to nail these big Irish handicaps but always find big prices running into a place or even winning. My account was paying 6 places, which is ideal for these kind of races. Try again tomorrow but not a disaster today. Tedthewolf and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Good start California jumbo ew at 18/1!! 2nd race ....top rated eastern world wins 20/1 !! vikki37, Wildgarden, BBBC and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 2nd race ....top rated eastern world wins 20/1 !! Nailing it mate. Well done. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Villa Chris said: Nailing it mate. Well done. Dont need to mess with hcap one i think ....it wont win every race but its picking up the big prices now even in the bigger races .....I'm using 30 % hcap 30% form lto 20% going 20% dist Not so fussed on course as numerous horses are effective at diff courses ....some I know are better at certain courses but I ran the course formula and it didnt seem to make much diff .... Bonus points I use high value place last 3 runs Just need to get stuck into the none hcap and graded races now .....definately requires a bit of tweaking ...I'm playing with replacing o.r for hcap....like top 3 score highest etc going down ....I know that's biased but top rated tend to win more than bottom rated especially if recent form backs it up....its a starting point lol Villa Chris and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Dont need to mess with hcap one i think ....it wont win every race but its picking up the big prices now even in the bigger races .....I'm using 30 % hcap 30% form lto 20% going 20% dist Not so fussed on course as numerous horses are effective at diff courses ....some I know are better at certain courses but I ran the course formula and it didnt seem to make much diff .... Bonus points I use high value place last 3 runs Just need to get stuck into the none hcap and graded races now .....definately requires a bit of tweaking ...I'm playing with replacing o.r for hcap....like top 3 score highest etc going down ....I know that's biased but top rated tend to win more than bottom rated especially if recent form backs it up....its a starting point lol When you say 30% for handicap, what do you mean by that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) It's on the original formula ....you have to total 100 % so I've make a little chart Win off today's mark 3 pts (10*0.3) +1 over win 2.7 pts (9* 0.3 ) +2 over win 2.4 pts etc +3 over win 2.1 pts etc +4 over win 1.8 pts Etc If you dont have a recent win to count then I've been taking a best guess ....so if the horse has placed off 67 2nd ......and another race placed 67 2nd ....I'll judge the horse to be be capable of winning off 65 ....if hes 68 today then hes rated +3 (2.1 ) ....makes sensexreally Edited February 13, 2021 by richard-westwood Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: It's on the original formula ....you have to total 100 % so I've make a little chart Win off today's mark 3 pts (10*0.3) +1 over win 2.7 pts (9* 0.3 ) +2 over win 2.4 pts etc +3 over win 2.1 pts etc +4 over win 1.8 pts Etc Got ya. I give 15% allocation for handicap mark. 10 points win on/over, 8 points second , 5 points placed, 2/3 points ran on mark or above. Not as precise as the way you do it, I must admit. Might have to tweak it a touch but it’s not done too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Villa Chris said: Got ya. I give 15% allocation for handicap mark. 10 points win on/over, 8 points second , 5 points placed, 2/3 points ran on mark or above. Not as precise as the way you do it, I must admit. Might have to tweak it a touch but it’s not done too bad. Yours is working ....you've been getting some good results ....sometimes its good to have slightly diff ratings ...that way if you arrive at the same horses you know it's time to take it serious ....theres only 1 more way I think I can improve it.....I did a test run on top 6 orl 7 rpr today and it seems to get rid of crap horses and cut the ratings down to a chosen few .....I'm running it as bonus points currently but might make it part of the formula if it continues to do well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Yours is working ....you've been getting some good results ....sometimes its good to have slightly diff ratings ...that way if you arrive at the same horses you know it's time to take it serious ....theres only 1 more way I think I can improve it.....I did a test run on top 6 orl 7 rpr today and it seems to get rid of crap horses and cut the ratings down to a chosen few .....I'm running it as bonus points currently but might make it part of the formula if it continues to do well Yeah I’m happy enough. We tend to not be too far off each other which is a positive sign for myself as I think your ratings are spot on the most part. What I’ve been doing the past week or so is if an horse has not ran off that mark before and it’s RPR from last race is 10 or above it’s official rating and the conditions of the race are pretty similar then I will award points. I’d also award lower points if the horse had an RPR last race of 5 above OR, and 6,7 etc Thought it was a good way to award up and coming horses who were working their way up the handicaps, instead of not scoring them any points because they haven’t ran off that mark before. I’m also deducting points from older horses who have won off that mark or higher before to try and balance things out between old/young, because at one point older horses 12+ were being top rated, and although you can’t discount them, you have to take in the fact that they are probably past their best. For example.... 10 points for winning on mark or higher horse aged 10/11, deduct 2 points off the 10 aged 12/13 deduct 5 points aged 14+ deduct 7 Id also work it the same if they finished 2nd off that mark or higher. So 8 points given normally but I’d deduct points going by age again from horses 10 or older. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Not sure how long it takes some of you lot, but a big handicap will take me over an hour. Hour 15 mins or summat like that. It’s all notepad and pen, but I’m hoping I can do it quicker one day using more advanced technology ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Yeah I’m happy enough. We tend to not be too far off each other which is a positive sign for myself as I think your ratings are spot on the most part. What I’ve been doing the past week or so is if an horse has not ran off that mark before and it’s RPR from last race is 10 or above it’s official rating and the conditions of the race are pretty similar then I will award points. I’d also award lower points if the horse had an RPR last race of 5 above OR, and 6,7 etc Thought it was a good way to award up and coming horses who were working their way up the handicaps, instead of not scoring them any points because they haven’t ran off that mark before. I’m also deducting points from older horses who have won off that mark or higher before to try and balance things out between old/young, because at one point older horses 12+ were being top rated, and although you can’t discount them, you have to take in the fact that they are probably past their best. For example.... 10 points for winning on mark or higher horse aged 10/11, deduct 2 points off the 10 aged 12/13 deduct 5 points aged 14+ deduct 7 Id also work it the same if they finished 2nd off that mark or higher. So 8 points given normally but I’d deduct points going by age again from horses 10 or older. Yes I do very similar if the horse hasn't been in a hcap I'll use last times rpr compared to o.r to gauge how good the horse could be .....there was a horse in one of today's races had won a non hcap but that was 72 rpr his o.r was 81 !! .....I gave him a 1 and he duly finished no where lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Not sure how long it takes some of you lot, but a big handicap will take me over an hour. Hour 15 mins or summat like that. It’s all notepad and pen, but I’m hoping I can do it quicker one day using more advanced technology ? Takes me 10 mins then 5 mins to go through the card once rated again and videos Villa Chris and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) I find it quicker to do on paper ....I have charts for each horses score so if it scores 9/10 section 1 or 2 ...(30%) then that's 2.7 ..makes it a lot quicker ...I can do a 16 runner race in approx 20 to 25 mins I rate form first .....go down the column .....starting with the highest rated at 3 I work down giving rating ..so 2nd rated would be 2.7 ....3rd rated 2.4 .....if horses are close I.e 145 142 I'll give the same rating Then I click on the horse to bring up all form and do the hcap dist and ground in one go and total the horse up ....takes about 1 min to 90 secs each horse doing it that way .... Total up the horses at the bottom ....then I only take the top say 6 or 7 horses and convert that to prices ...it saves time and as discussed the 7th rated horse although value is doubtful gonna win Edited February 13, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 (edited) Punchestown National 4.30 Screaming Colours 7.4, 8/1(15/1)2nd by half a length Roaring Bull 7.3, 12/1(15/1)9th Moyhenna 7.2, 9/1(16/1)3rd High Sparrow 6.9, 14/1(17/1)7th Se Mo Laoch 6.9, 10/1(17/1)unseated rider Top 5 rated . None have won at the distance but that doesn’t concern me, and it’s not unusual for the winner to have not won at distance in these kind of races. I have rated them if they have won or placed over 3+ mile. Think there are 3 horses in the race that have won at distance but they are lower down in ratings. Roaring Bull is very good on his day and could produce the magic but too unpredictable and too many pulled ups to his name. I’ll play top rated and third rated and 4th rated 2.50 points ew Screaming Colours 8/1 ew Moyheena 9/1 ew High Sparrow 14/1 ew not much value really . Edited February 14, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Punchestown National 4.30 Screaming Colours 7.4, 8/1(15/1) Roaring Bull 7.3, 12/1(15/1) Moyhenna 7.2, 9/1(16/1) High Sparrow 6.9, 14/1(17/1) Se Mo Laoch 6.9, 10/1(17/1) Top 5 rated . None have won at the distance but that doesn’t concern me, and it’s not unusual for the winner to have not won at distance in these kind of races. I’ve have rated them if they have won or placed over 3+ mile. Think there are 3 horses in the race that have won at distance but they are lower down in ratings. Roaring Bull is very good on his day and could produce the magic but too unpredictable and too many pulled ups to his name. I’ll play top rated and third rated and 4th rated 2.50 points ew Screaming Colours 8/1 ew Moyheena 9/1 ew High Sparrow 14/1 ew not much value really . Very very tough race .... I have Roaring bull 7.8 See mo loach 7.4 Out sam 7.4 But no confidence....roaring bull rarely makes it round...when he does hes a good horse ....see mo loach is a capable horse but changing disciplines ....out sam is a dark horse ...usually comes to hand just before Cheltenham and pops up in a big hcap usually at a big price ....interesting....but we match on 2 of 3 in such a big race so they must be the ones to play ......for me out sam is the overall value bet ...but decent prices all round Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Very very tough race .... I have Roaring bull 7.8 See mo loach 7.4 Out sam 7.4 But no confidence....roaring bull rarely makes it round...when he does hes a good horse ....see mo loach is a capable horse but changing disciplines ....out sam is a dark horse ...usually comes to hand just before Cheltenham and pops up in a big hcap usually at a big price ....interesting....but we match on 2 of 3 in such a big race so they must be the ones to play ......for me out sam is the overall value bet ...but decent prices all round Roaring Bull would have to be a bigger price for me to risk it. Glad we kind of agree with 2-3 as you say. I’ve gone with High Sparrow over Se Mo Laoch purely because of odds. Level rated but I get 4 points more value with High Sparrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Had 515 globe theatre 2nd rated and value but didn't put it as lost by over 20 lengths last and wasn't a bad start either. Hard to differentiate winners from losers sometimes from the value lol. richard-westwood and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Quotes from Gordon elliot Roaring Bull isn’t the easiest to predict but he was second in the Troytown this season and he also ran much better than his final position in the Paddy Power Chase would suggest. He has run some pretty ordinary races too though so you couldn’t put him forward with any confidence but I could see him running a big race here. Out Sam could run well. On his four starts this season I think he has shown that he can win again and the twice he has fallen he looked like he was going to run well both times. His jumping can be a bit iffy but he is another who is tailor made for this sort of test and form such as his fifth in this season’s Cork National would suggest that he has prospects of reaching the frame. c'mon you beauty's...lol Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Gordon Elliots horses haven’t been in great form lately but they will come to the boil for Cheltenham, you can guarantee that. He’s good at placing his horses in tough handicaps. Mullins will eat up the graded races but Elliot will do well in the handicaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Gordon Elliots horses haven’t been in great form lately but they will come to the boil for Cheltenham, you can guarantee that. He’s good at placing his horses in tough handicaps. Mullins will eat up the graded races but Elliot will do well in the handicaps. Realy fancy Elliot to take this race. I was left with 4 horses when doinf the form all Elliots all look cracking e/w value to me. Have already backed Our Sam @25/1. The other 3 are rank ousiders i have are General Princnciple i really fancy off a feather weight deffo not 66/1 shot in my eyes problem is he is 2nd reserve so unlikley to run. The other 2 are 50/1 shots Dounikos & Monbeg Notorious i will back both if the general is a NR as expected or one of them if he runs. Good to see you guys have Our Sam well up in the ratings looks to have a smashing e/w chance imo. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said: Realy fancy Elliot to take this race. I was left with 4 horses when doinf the form all Elliots all look cracking e/w value to me. Have already backed Our Sam @25/1. The other 3 are rank ousiders i have are General Princnciple i really fancy off a feather weight deffo not 66/1 shot in my eyes problem is he is 2nd reserve so unlikley to run. The other 2 are 50/1 shots Dounikos & Monbeg Notorious i will back both if the general is a NR as expected or one of them if he runs. Good to see you guys have Our Sam well up in the ratings looks to have a smashing e/w chance imo. A big run from any of those mentioned is certainly doable, even if they are a bit exposed now. Dounikos won this two year ago off 147 and races off 140. Elliot is really good at placing his horses when it matters, and if any of them are in the top rated at Cheltenham I’ll be all over them. Hopefully all horses get round ok as I noticed one today at Naas went wrong and had to be pulled up. Tedthewolf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 330 punch Lea valley legacy 7.5 11/1 8/1 no value Difficult decision 7.1 12/1 20/1 good value The trigger 6.8 13/1 16/1 value I'll try win bets on all 3 Wildgarden and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Do you think the grand National could be rated, or is it too much of a car crash race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 (edited) 3.30 Punchestown Exciting Oscar 8.5, 15/2(9/1) 3rd Shar What’s Therush , 7.6, 11/2(11/1) pulled up Cappacurry zak 6,6, 22/1(13/1)pulled up Classic Concorde 6.4, 22/1(13/1) 2nd Top rated close to a point clear but no value . 3rd, 4th, offer good value. Edited February 14, 2021 by Villa Chris Taking out non runner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Do you think the grand National could be rated, or is it too much of a car crash race. It should be a fab race to rate ....take you all day ..lol.....but you could rate the horses .....scrub off crap ones then use trends to cut the race down to a few special horses ....age ....hcap ....form over 3m2f plus ...etc .....shoukd work really well in theory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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