richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 6 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I wanted to tackle a large hcap just for the fun of it and found this race tomorrow (tues) Exeter 245 hurdle Here's Herbie 8.8 8/1 10/1 good value Sexy lot 7.3 10/1 9/2 poor value Stage summit 7.2 10/1 14/1 good value Majestic merlin 6.6 11/1 6/1 poor value Mille sussuri 6.0 13/1 17/2 poor value Only 1 bookie priced up at moment but 2 ew value bets currently in stage summit and heres Herbie....I'll wait to see if bigger prices come online later else I'll go ew on both Heres Herbie 14/1 betvic ....stage summit 16/1....both ew tomorrow BBBC and Wildgarden 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 18 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 540 Wolverhampton one one seven and Sarah's verse both 17-2 betvictor One one seven moved into 8.2 but couldn't do much 5th and Sarah's verse at least placed for some money back (3.7 BSP). Jumira took nice angle inside to win 4.66 fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 740 southwell Tanqeeb 14.5 Betfair exchange / place bsp Final attack 27.0 Betfair exchange / place bsp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 640 Wolverhampton Home before dusk 9-1 ew ladbrokes is the value pick for me and agree with trotter on mythical. I also like athmad to win as cover Betfair sp 2nd and 3rd and 7 horse race so home before dusk didn't pay ;-( richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 810 Wolverhampton such a close race so going for 3 Dutch lol Tundra 10.0 City escape 10.5 One to go 17.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 (edited) 22 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 740 wolv monday Visibility 7.6 7/1 avail 9/2 novalue Corked 7.6 7/1 avail 12/1 good value Final attack 6.6 15/1 10/1 no value Crit thinking 6.3 15/1 7/1 no value Stand out value bet ...corked ew at 12/1 will hill Corked none runner ...3 non runners in 1 race ...unusual for all weather But that brings final attack into the picture 14/1 5 places with bet365 is the bet Edited January 18, 2021 by richard-westwood vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 42 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Corked none runner ...3 non runners in 1 race ...unusual for all weather But that brings final attack into the picture 14/1 5 places with bet365 is the bet Never got going ...hopeless run Wildgarden and Wild20 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 740 southwell Tanqeeb 14.5 Betfair exchange / place bsp Final attack 27.0 Betfair exchange / place bsp Tanqeeb kept on 3rd place for nearly money back 3.8. Could have included critical thinking drifting in price but I had to do that once drifted (14.5% value...) Myself cos drifted to value. (2nd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 810 Wolverhampton such a close race so going for 3 Dutch lol Tundra 10.0 City escape 10.5 One to go 17.0 City 3rd. One to go slow again drifted out and unexposed tundra didn't do much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 610 southwell daffr 10.0 betfair win. Will come.back to others before once prices moved... As close to what I predict. Fellcrawler, CarlosUK, BBBC and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 540 southwell daffy 8.6 betfair exchange Fellcrawler, CarlosUK and BBBC 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 On 1/18/2021 at 11:01 AM, richard-westwood said: I wanted to tackle a large hcap just for the fun of it and found this race tomorrow (tues) Exeter 245 hurdle Here's Herbie 8.8 8/1 10/1 good value Sexy lot 7.3 10/1 9/2 poor value Stage summit 7.2 10/1 14/1 good value Majestic merlin 6.6 11/1 6/1 poor value Mille sussuri 6.0 13/1 17/2 poor value Only 1 bookie priced up at moment but 2 ew value bets currently in stage summit and heres Herbie....I'll wait to see if bigger prices come online later else I'll go ew on both Well Richard, complete difference of opinion on the two selections by the bookies - Here's Herbie has been smashed into as short as 6/1, whereas Stage Summit is currently as big as 40/1.. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 440 southwell fantasy keeper 4.5 / gossip 13.0 win. CarlosUK and Fellcrawler 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4.40 Sou Top Rated Centurian Song 8 Gossip 8 Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes 6 Value (bet365) 10/1 Gossip ( my price 9/2) ..... looks the value bet but his points have been gained in class 6 races to he's up in class Old timers, Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes are both 12/1 (my price 15/2) so not great value but could be EW punts with the dead 8 runners probably a race to leave alone though unless you want to take the Top Rated and Favourite, Centurian Song at 15/8 ........ he might win this by default as most of the other are either aging, class 6 types or want further than this 5 furlongs Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, Trotter said: 4.40 Sou Top Rated Centurian Song 8 Gossip 8 Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes 6 Value (bet365) 10/1 Gossip ( my price 9/2) ..... looks the value bet but his points have been gained in class 6 races to he's up in class Old timers, Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes are both 12/1 (my price 15/2) so not great value but could be EW punts with the dead 8 runners probably a race to leave alone though unless you want to take the Top Rated and Favourite, Centurian Song at 15/8 ........ he might win this by default as most of the other are either aging, class 6 types or want further than this 5 furlongs Personally I quite like the chances of You're Cool. Won last time out at Wolves so clearly in good heart, has form at Southwell off higher marks (3rd off 75 last year) and has a top claimer up. Think he's currently around 7/1. Fantasy Keeper shouldn't be far away either but is short enough at around 3/1. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 640 southwell merry secret to lose 5.6 lay Betfair exchange. Impeach if had to pick winner but close other than merry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Sou 6.10 Top Rated Perfect Swiss 8 Liamba 8 The Great Heir 5 Value (bet365 5/1 Liamba (my price 13/5) 9/1 Borsdane Wood (my price 13/2) not many horses in the 'value' range .... Liamba is the obvious Win selection Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, DanV89 said: Personally I quite like the chances of You're Cool. Won last time out at Wolves so clearly in good heart, has form at Southwell off higher marks (3rd off 75 last year) and has a top claimer up. Think he's currently around 7/1. Fantasy Keeper shouldn't be far away either but is short enough at around 3/1. I have You're Cool as an 8/1 chance on the figures so the bookies have him about right. I also have Fantasy Keeper at 8/1 so doesn't look 'value' at 3/1 ....... although of course he doesn't know that! I guess that's the problem with these threads where you're putting up selections based on ratings and/or value ..... it doesn't take account of subjective factors which good old fashioned form study is all about This is more a case of 'the computer say NO' ? BBBC and DanV89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 hour ago, DanV89 said: Well Richard, complete difference of opinion on the two selections by the bookies - Here's Herbie has been smashed into as short as 6/1, whereas Stage Summit is currently as big as 40/1.. I know that's crazy .....unless stage summit wins ?? BBBC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: I know that's crazy .....unless stage summit wins ?? Hope you get BOG... Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 21 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Heres Herbie 14/1 betvic ....stage summit 16/1....both ew tomorrow 3rd and 4th ?? Wildgarden and BBBC 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 3 hours ago, DanV89 said: Personally I quite like the chances of You're Cool. Won last time out at Wolves so clearly in good heart, has form at Southwell off higher marks (3rd off 75 last year) and has a top claimer up. Think he's currently around 7/1. Fantasy Keeper shouldn't be far away either but is short enough at around 3/1. Fantasy Keeper wins and drifted nicely to 5/1 BBBC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Apologies no time for any write ups but a few I’ve had small bets on at Southwell. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 4 hours ago, Trotter said: I guess that's the problem with these threads where you're putting up selections based on ratings and/or value ..... it doesn't take account of subjective factors which good old fashioned form study is all about It's not just subjective factors, there are hundreds of variables that affect the result of a race and we are only using a handful in our analysis. The danger is that we think our selection is value but it may because we haven't accounted for these other variables, your example of horses moving up in class is a good example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Sorry Late one guys 710sl southwell katelli Ew. 7.4 and 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 21 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 610 southwell daffr 10.0 betfair win. Will come.back to others before once prices moved... As close to what I predict. Won 8.5 bsp Edited January 19, 2021 by Wildgarden BBBC and Fellcrawler 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 440 southwell fantasy keeper 4.5 / gossip 13.0 win. Won fantasy 6.8 bsp Edited January 19, 2021 by Wildgarden vikki37 and Fellcrawler 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 540 southwell daffy 8.6 betfair exchange Won 18-1 sp / 24 bsp Edited January 19, 2021 by Wildgarden vikki37, BBBC and Fellcrawler 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 5 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 640 southwell merry secret to lose 5.6 lay Betfair exchange. Impeach if had to pick winner but close other than merry. Won merry lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Sorry Late one guys 710sl southwell katelli Ew. 7.4 and 3.05 Wow crazy finish all virtually together. Handicapper did his job there... Well done nick vedder - can't win them all. Edited January 19, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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