Pricing your own race

[Wildgarden]

5 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

235 southwell close affair on ratings but notation won by 16l lto! I like murkha magic Ew 4-1 bet365 who could upset if notation has a bad day!

Started 4.4 BSP but couldn't keep at it for 3rd. Notation duly won again. Chipirion 2nd was value in the end at 11.5 BSP.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Trotter]

One thing I have noticed doing this for the last few days is that it helps to put a framework on the race even if you don't pick what appears to be the 'value' bet

I've had 3 consecutive winners in the Nap of the Day comp but I don't think any of them would have counted ........ but merely by going through this process it helped me pick the winner

Like today I had Notation in the 2.35 at Southwell ....... wasn't one of the value horses but in looking at the race for this thread I concluded that none of the 'value' horses were going to win and Notation was my top rated and the most likely winner. 

 

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

305 southwell much improved this year, grimsthorpe castle may like the step down in trip and class and gets the nod at 9.6 Betfair exchange 

Grimsthorpe drifted out to 15 - 4th couldn't keep pace after slow start and pushed along. False id was about matching chance at 9.2 to win

[Wildgarden]

36 minutes ago, Trotter said:

One thing I have noticed doing this for the last few days is that it helps to put a framework on the race even if you don't pick what appears to be the 'value' bet

I've had 3 consecutive winners in the Nap of the Day comp but I don't think any of them would have counted ........ but merely by going through this process it helped me pick the winner

Like today I had Notation in the 2.35 at Southwell ....... wasn't one of the value horses but in looking at the race for this thread I concluded that none of the 'value' horses were going to win and Notation was my top rated and the most likely winner. 

 

Think Ur right, did warn on mine it likely winner lol but wanted a cheeky punt

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

335 southwell. Picks are katheefa 8.8 and requinto dawn 9.8 Betfair exchange

2nd rated requinto dawn wins at 14 BSP... Missed few points there. Katheefa 3rd 4.8bsp so value picking early there though. Got nick vedder 4.05 top rated.. also have a big acca.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden

[richard-westwood]

At work today so not had any chance to look but some Interesting results of my bets since the beginning of the thread 

Iesha 8.0 got 16.0 betfair 3rd
The good ting 6/1 got 9.0 betfair won

Pearl of quatar 9/1 got 14 3rd
Global humour 9/1git 14/1 unp

Crownthorpe unp 4/1 got 9/2
Papastour unp 6/1 git 13/2

Count otto 15/2 got 10/1 won

Achilles 10/1 got 14/1 2nd

Espressofreddo 10/1 got 18/1 3rd
Family fortunes 7/1 got 10/1 2nd


10 bets win 10 out 20 pts returned
10 bets ew 20 out 40.50 returned
2 wins from 10 bets
7/10 ew bets returned

All to 1pt win or ew 

Good return on win bets but with 7 out 10 returning bets the ew bets are flying ......I think that's the focus so far .....but only to expected 

Low strike rate on the wins as has been mentioned but good prices when they do win gives an overall good return 

Edited January 17, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Trotter]

4 hours ago, Trotter said:

Sou 3.35 

Decent sized field for this one - nine runners so EW possibilities

top rated 

Requinto Dawn 10
Zylan 9
Equidae 6
Katheefa 6

value

horses available at bigger odds (bet365) than my estimates ...

Requinto Dawn 8/1 (my odds 4/1)
Shacka booha 20/1 (my odds 16/1)
Bellevarde 20/1 (my odds 19/2)
 

I suppose Requinto Dawn is the obvious Win selection 

Requinto Dawn - WON 9/1

 

[Wildgarden]

7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

At work today so not had any chance to look but some Interesting results of my bets since the beginning of the thread 

Iesha 8.0 got 16.0 betfair 3rd
The good ting 6/1 got 9.0 betfair won

Pearl of quatar 9/1 got 14 3rd
Global humour 9/1git 14/1 unp

Crownthorpe unp 4/1 got 9/2
Papastour unp 6/1 git 13/2

Count otto 15/2 got 10/1 won

Achilles 10/1 got 14/1 2nd

Espressofreddo 10/1 got 18/1 3rd
Family fortunes 7/1 got 10/1 2nd


10 bets win 10 out 20 pts returned
10 bets ew 20 out 40.50 returned
2 wins from 10 bets
7/10 ew bets returned

All to 1pt win or ew 

Good return on win bets but with 7 out 10 returning bets the ew bets are flying ......I think that's the focus so far .....but only to expected 

Low strike rate on the wins as has been mentioned but good prices when they do win gives an overall good return 

Think I'm due a few more winners this week then lol. May not have time to post as much in week working.... Tomorrow night races so might be okay.

[DanV89]

1 minute ago, Trotter said:

Requinto Dawn - WON 9/1

 

Well done Trotter, enjoying reading these and following your selections/results. Keep them coming guys ??

[richard-westwood]

5 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

Well done Trotter, enjoying reading these and following your selections/results. Keep them coming guys ??

Must say after reading trotters post I would have gone ew on requinto if I'd had a bet today...really looked ew value 

[Wildgarden]

410 Wolverhampton nurse Dee looks good at 9.8 Betfair exchange price

Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden

[richard-westwood]

740 wolv monday 

Visibility   7.6   7/1   avail 9/2 novalue

Corked   7.6  7/1 avail 12/1  good value

Final attack  6.6   15/1  10/1 no value

Crit thinking 6.3  15/1  7/1 no value 

Stand out value bet ...corked ew at 12/1 will hill 

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Wildgarden]

510 Wolverhampton tan 2nd out of weaker race so that isn't a selection and I don't like secret up in distance again. Swissal started badly last time and has place chances but odds are too low on bookies compared to 15 on offer at the exchange. Taking 15.0 win and seeing if place is decent tomorrow.

Requinto dawn won today that beat it must be faith, so Frank's this one's run and is also a win pick at 5-1 paddy power or may wish to wait for bog tomorrow.

[Wildgarden]

540 Wolverhampton one one seven and Sarah's verse both 17-2 betvictor

Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden

[MCLARKE]

14 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

You can see its definately finding value bets .......theres been quite a few races where I've looked at a horse and thought that looks decent only for the rating to say this 5/1 should be 10/1 and the horse has duly lost so its finding....good bets .....a lot will be ew but when they win in turn you'll do well ......if you put all the races weve done in a long list its impressive reading .....no way youd pick that many good bets ........think of it as our own version of price wise which effectively is what it is .....he didn't win every week but when you do win your profits shoot forward .......

I agree, this is a very promising topic. 

As always I am doing a fair bit of research before committing any hard earned cash.

At the moment I have adopted a slightly different approach, I have taken my top rated selection and if they are not in the top 2 in the betting then I have assumed they are value bets.

For the 2019/20 season (handicap chases only) there were 257 selections with 41 winners with a LSP of 127 points and an AE of 1.48.

 

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree, this is a very promising topic. 

As always I am doing a fair bit of research before committing any hard earned cash.

At the moment I have adopted a slightly different approach, I have taken my top rated selection and if they are not in the top 2 in the betting then I have assumed they are value bets.

For the 2019/20 season (handicap chases only) there were 257 selections with 41 winners with a LSP of 127 points and an AE of 1.48.

 

It's a different approach but does same job .....yiur quantifying the horse then letting to bookies do the pricing for you......they are pretty at it ?......

[richard-westwood]

10 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

510 Wolverhampton tan 2nd out of weaker race so that isn't a selection and I don't like secret up in distance again. Swissal started badly last time and has place chances but odds are too low on bookies compared to 15 on offer at the exchange. Taking 15.0 win and seeing if place is decent tomorrow.

Requinto dawn won today that beat it must be faith, so Frank's this one's run and is also a win pick at 5-1 paddy power or may wish to wait for bog tomorrow.

I rated that race but skipped because ....

One baba   8.8  11/2   avail 9/2 no value

It must be faith  8.3 6/1  avail  11/2 no value

Dynamo walt   7.6  13/2   avail 5/1 no value 

Tan  6.9    14/1   avail 22/1   high value 

It must be faith could become a value ew bet if he drifts out a little more to 6/1 or more ......for the ones who like a bit more risk then ....tan could potentially outrun the 22/1 price tag and sneak a place but because the front 3 have such strong form ratings I've skipped the race myself ...

Just noticed you have tan high rated too ???

Edited January 18, 2021 by richard-westwood

[Trotter]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I agree, this is a very promising topic. 

As always I am doing a fair bit of research before committing any hard earned cash.

At the moment I have adopted a slightly different approach, I have taken my top rated selection and if they are not in the top 2 in the betting then I have assumed they are value bets.

For the 2019/20 season (handicap chases only) there were 257 selections with 41 winners with a LSP of 127 points and an AE of 1.48.

 

I'm thinking along similar lines ........ concentrating on your top rated horses using whichever rating system you're developing. As I said above if your rating system isn't pointing up winners then it's not working !

Stage 2 is then to look for 'value' amongst your top rated horses

I'm sticking to the AW handicaps for the time being and also a bit wary of class 6 races so I've got one race today .......the 6.40 at Wolves. Looked at it last night but was waiting for confirmation of a non runner which affects the prices of all the other horses ........ now confirmed and down to a field of 7 which isn't ideal

[Wildgarden]

42 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I rated that race but skipped because ....

One baba   8.8  11/2   avail 9/2 no value

It must be faith  8.3 6/1  avail  11/2 no value

Dynamo walt   7.6  13/2   avail 5/1 no value 

Tan  6.9    14/1   avail 22/1   high value 

It must be faith could become a value ew bet if he drifts out a little more to 6/1 or more ......for the ones who like a bit more risk then ....tan could potentially outrun the 22/1 price tag and sneak a place but because the front 3 have such strong form ratings I've skipped the race myself ...

Just noticed you have tan high rated too ???

Yeha I watched tans race checked other horses and it's lot weaker

[richard-westwood]

16 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

Yeha I watched tans race checked other horses and it's lot weaker

Ya know what ....bet365 are offering 5/1 on tan to be placed ....I'll have 2pts on that ....cant be a bad bet all things considered ?

[richard-westwood]

I wanted to tackle a large hcap just for the fun of it and found this race tomorrow   (tues) Exeter 245 hurdle

Here's Herbie  8.8  8/1  10/1  good value 

Sexy lot  7.3  10/1  9/2  poor value

Stage summit  7.2  10/1  14/1 good value 

Majestic merlin 6.6 11/1 6/1 poor value 

Mille sussuri  6.0  13/1 17/2 poor value 

Only 1 bookie priced up at moment but 2 ew value bets currently in stage summit and heres Herbie....I'll wait to see if bigger prices come online later else I'll go ew on both 

 

[Trotter]

6.40 Wolv

Top Rated

Mythical Madness 11
Athmad 9
Avarice 7

Value (bet365)

Mythical Madness 16/1 (my price 17/5)
Avarice 8/1 (my price 6/1)
Home Before Dusk 9/1 (my price 7/1)

Mythical Madness stands out as top rated and best 'value' ........ 

To be honest I wouldn't be rushing to back a 10 year olds that hasn't run for 6 months although he did win on return from a 3 month break last season

Could do it EW but only 2 places with a field of 7

[Wildgarden]

640 Wolverhampton

Home before dusk 9-1 ew ladbrokes is the value pick for me and agree with trotter on mythical. I also like athmad to win as cover Betfair sp

[DanV89]

43 minutes ago, Trotter said:

6.40 Wolv

Top Rated

Mythical Madness 11
Athmad 9
Avarice 7

Value (bet365)

Mythical Madness 16/1 (my price 17/5)
Avarice 8/1 (my price 6/1)
Home Before Dusk 9/1 (my price 7/1)

Mythical Madness stands out as top rated and best 'value' ........ 

To be honest I wouldn't be rushing to back a 10 year olds that hasn't run for 6 months although he did win on return from a 3 month break last season

Could do it EW but only 2 places with a field of 7

Don't know if you have a Bet365 account Trotter (or if you're even backing your selections in reality) however with them you can amend the place terms for most races. Using this one as an example Mythical Madness is 16/1 with the standard 2 places, however they are offering 14/1 for 3 places, and even 10/1 for 4 places.

Apologies if the term 'grandmother sucking eggs' springs to mind just thought i'd make you (and others) aware if not already ?

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, DanV89 said:

Don't know if you have a Bet365 account Trotter (or if you're even backing your selections in reality) however with them you can amend the place terms for most races. Using this one as an example Mythical Madness is 16/1 with the standard 2 places, however they are offering 14/1 for 3 places, and even 10/1 for 4 places.

Apologies if the term 'grandmother sucking eggs' springs to mind just thought i'd make you (and others) aware if not already ?

Its 11/1 for 4 places currently......that does seem a very very generous price ......worth a punt 

[Trotter]

1 hour ago, DanV89 said:

Don't know if you have a Bet365 account Trotter (or if you're even backing your selections in reality) however with them you can amend the place terms for most races. Using this one as an example Mythical Madness is 16/1 with the standard 2 places, however they are offering 14/1 for 3 places, and even 10/1 for 4 places.

Apologies if the term 'grandmother sucking eggs' springs to mind just thought i'd make you (and others) aware if not already ?

No, I don't have a bet365 account ... but that does sound a useful thing to know !

The horse was single figure odds last night when I first looked at the race .... he's drifted right out and is now the outsider of the field

I'd be a bit wary of a 10 year old after a break who's drifting in the betting ... I'd guess he's not fit and will need the run!

 

[DanV89]

Just now, Trotter said:

No, I don't have a bet365 account ... but that does sound a useful thing to know !

The horse was single figure odds last night when I first looked at the race .... he's drifted right out and is now the outsider of the field

I'd be a bit wary of a 10 year old after a break who's drifting in the betting ... I'd guess he's not fit and will need the run!

 

My thoughts exactly, unless there's a late plunge later!!

Will watch with interest.

[LEE-GRAYS]

18 minutes ago, Trotter said:

No, I don't have a bet365 account ... but that does sound a useful thing to know !

The horse was single figure odds last night when I first looked at the race .... he's drifted right out and is now the outsider of the field

I'd be a bit wary of a 10 year old after a break who's drifting in the betting ... I'd guess he's not fit and will need the run!

 

each way extra on all races even usa up to 10 plces on big fields

[Wildgarden]

20 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

410 Wolverhampton nurse Dee looks good at 9.8 Betfair exchange price

Won 14-1 / 16bsp

[Wildgarden]

19 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

510 Wolverhampton tan 2nd out of weaker race so that isn't a selection and I don't like secret up in distance again. Swissal started badly last time and has place chances but odds are too low on bookies compared to 15 on offer at the exchange. Taking 15.0 win and seeing if place is decent tomorrow.

Requinto dawn won today that beat it must be faith, so Frank's this one's run and is also a win pick at 5-1 paddy power or may wish to wait for bog tomorrow.

It must be faith drifted out faithfully to come last at 15.0 and my other pick swissal came into 8.4 but couldn't deliver coming 5th. Secret potion 12.4% rated came 3rd at 6.0 place was other interest that I didn't fancy (whoops)

Not many would see lady quicksteps improvement at 40-1 winner.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Wildgarden