richard-westwood Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 44 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: It's not just subjective factors, there are hundreds of variables that affect the result of a race and we are only using a handful in our analysis. The danger is that we think our selection is value but it may because we haven't accounted for these other variables, your example of horses moving up in class is a good example. Beauty of it is ....if you want to account for that you can......yiu do as much or as little as you feel comfortable with ...the formula can account for a dozen diff ratings easily ......I'm trying to make my rated races as close as I possibly can .....I'm using recent form .....form rating (which encompasses weight speed and class )....distance form ground form and handicap ...that's a big portion of what makes a horse "win" .....I'm overwhelmed tbh how well its picking value bets given the low class of racing.....I think if Cheltenham goes ahead the differences at the top level are much greater and it will really come into it's own....I think it will find some seriously good bets especially in the big hcaps ....its very exciting BBBC, Wildgarden, Nigwilliam and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 14 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Beauty of it is ....if you want to account for that you can......yiu do as much or as little as you feel comfortable with ...the formula can account for a dozen diff ratings easily ......I'm trying to make my rated races as close as I possibly can .....I'm using recent form .....form rating (which encompasses weight speed and class )....distance form ground form and handicap ...that's a big portion of what makes a horse "win" .....I'm overwhelmed tbh how well its picking value bets given the low class of racing.....I think if Cheltenham goes ahead the differences at the top level are much greater and it will really come into it's own....I think it will find some seriously good bets especially in the big hcaps ....its very exciting I'm doing the ratings but also still watching videos to see what horse is like and using some system analysis knowledge for my picks... Hopefully picking up some more variables. Off today so hopefully post some winners later or placers lol. May have a crack at some more longer distance at some point.... Anyone any tips on how much to devote to each area for longer races. Distance over form... Fitness come.into it more? Edited January 20, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 600 southwell tried doing this longer race. Any comments let me know. Looks like cold harbour 4.8, engrave 6.4 and foresee 23.0 betfair exchange price win are the picks, perhaps favouring the first two moreso. Edited January 20, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 If I stick to my type of race there's not much for me today ...... all aged, all weather handicaps of class 5 and above. The only two races have got 3 and 5 runners which makes for an interesting different scenario Sou 4.30 - 3 runners Ratings Wrath of Hector 6 Delph Crescent 4 Vive La Difference 1 Value (current bet365 prices) 11/8 Delph - my odds 7/4 13/8 Wrath - my odds 5/6 11/4 Vive - My odds 10/1 Delph Crescent is the current favourite and both the other two look value against him Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Sou 5.30 - only 5 runner Ratings Requinto Dawn 11 Zylan 7 Zapper Cass 6 Young John 3 Alminoor 3 Value (current bet365 odds) 10/3 Requinto Dawn - my odds 7/4 7/2 Zylan - my odds 10/3 9/1 Zapper Cass - my odds 4/1 5/2 Young John - my odds 9/1 3/1 Alminoor - my odds 9/1 I had a 9/1 win on Requinto Dawn 3 days ago ..... can he go in again?. My odds suggest he's value today against the two market leaders who appear at the bottom of my ratings Looking only at the ratings/value you'd have to go Requinto Dawn - Win Zapper Cass - EW (providing no NRs) Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Trotter said: Sou 5.30 - only 5 runner Ratings Requinto Dawn 11 Zylan 7 Zapper Cass 6 Young John 3 Alminoor 3 Value (current bet365 odds) 10/3 Requinto Dawn - my odds 7/4 7/2 Zylan - my odds 10/3 9/1 Zapper Cass - my odds 4/1 5/2 Young John - my odds 9/1 3/1 Alminoor - my odds 9/1 I had a 9/1 win on Requinto Dawn 3 days ago ..... can he go in again?. My odds suggest he's value today against the two market leaders who appear at the bottom of my ratings Looking only at the ratings/value you'd have to go Requinto Dawn - Win Zapper Cass - EW (providing no NRs) Had exactly the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 730 south Archimedes 8.1 11/2 5/1 no value Dark side prince 7.6 6/1 4/1 no value Arcavello 7.0 13/2 8.8 value Brandy station 6.8 15/2 6/1 no value Arcavello 8.8 betfair 2.68 place looks the value bet Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 600 southwell tried doing this longer race. Any comments let me know. Looks like cold harbour 4.8, engrave 6.4 and foresee 23.0 betfair exchange price win are the picks, perhaps favouring the first two moreso. Well foresee placed that's it. Cold 4th. Fellcrawler and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: 730 south Archimedes 8.1 11/2 5/1 no value Dark side prince 7.6 6/1 4/1 no value Arcavello 7.0 13/2 8.8 value Brandy station 6.8 15/2 6/1 no value Arcavello 8.8 betfair 2.68 place looks the value bet Almost pipped at the last second 2nd .... beaten by dark side Edited January 20, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Poor racing at moment hence a bit quiet but looked at 730 newc tonight Outrage. 8.6 11/2 9/2 no value Mondammej 7.9 6/1 7/2 no value El hombre 8.3 6/1 8.0 value bet El hombre 8.0 2.6 ...betfair value bet BBBC and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Hi all, just started wrestling with Richards spreadsheet! One question I can't answer myself is how do you rate a horse whose mark is dropping like a stone? There was one today that last won off 93 and has now dropped to 67 and came 7th of 8. What points should I have alloted to it? Any assistance/opinions gratefully received. Thinking about it, it was 7th in my ratings so maybe I don't need to do anything different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) Hi All I've just rated the 18.45 Chelmsford tomorrow. Channel Packet Rating 9.0 6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1 Weloof Rating 6.3 13/2 available My odds 6/1 Casina Di Notte Rating 5.4 8/1 available My odds 7/1 My first try so don't follow! Bookies fav Win Win Power Rated 4.3, My odds 9/1! Edit: Win Win has not won yet so ratings a bit skewed. Has Hammer Hansen aboard so gets 3lb as well. Edited January 21, 2021 by Pirate53 Added info. richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 54 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Hi all, just started wrestling with Richards spreadsheet! One question I can't answer myself is how do you rate a horse whose mark is dropping like a stone? There was one today that last won off 93 and has now dropped to 67 and came 7th of 8. What points should I have alloted to it? Any assistance/opinions gratefully received. Thinking about it, it was 7th in my ratings so maybe I don't need to do anything different. Interesting dilemma because in a few cases the horse will fall to a level that suddenly causes a revival but generally you normally get a sign that is going to happen ........on my sheet that horse could be rated 20 % x10 ..2.0 for hcap but might have a very low 30x2 ...0.6 score for recent form total ...2.6 overall for the 2 sections out of a possible 5.0........the way I tend to tackle it is I look at recent form...so if a horse won off 90 18 months ago but is now 75 then it's pretty obvious the horse is on the downgrade....but if he suddenly finishes 3rd I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say well if he can finish 3rd off 75 ....then maybe if he carried 72 ?...he could have won....then look at today's o.r and if he is carrying 73 ...that's 1lb over so I'd rate him based on that .....its never far off tbh and it works well for me Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Hi All I've just rated the 18.45 Chelmsford tomorrow. Channel Packet Rating 9.0 6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1 Weloof Rating 6.3 13/2 available My odds 6/1 Casina Di Notte Rating 5.4 8/1 available My odds 7/1 My first try so don't follow! Bookies fav Win Win Power Rated 4.3, My odds 9/1! Just have a go ....if you find something doesnt work ....change the percentages to see if that helps .....or try diff criteria to each section ....its your own baby so have fun with it ? Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Added a weighting to compensate re Win Win Power as above. New ratings: Channel Packet Rating 9.0 6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1 Win Win Power Rating 6.7 4/1 available My odds 11/2 Still no value here. Weloof Rating 6.3 13/2 available My odds 6/1 Casina Di Notte Rating 5.4 8/1 available My odds 7/1 Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I've also done the 6.45 at Chelmsford to see how we compare My top rated are ........ 8 Dutugamunu 7 Channel Packet 4 Zefferino The only horse that is a much different price to my odds is the rank outsider, Cheat at 50/1. I make him a 15/1 shot ....... but he's difficult to fancy ! The two market leaders are my top two rated and the bookies odds are within a point of mine, so nothing there for value all the others except Cheat are shorter odds than my estimates The top two rated are the market leaders and the bookies prices agree with mine richard-westwood, Wildgarden and Pirate53 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Should be posting tomorrow either here or the racing chat. Too busy in work to post all time but had society red and Fred winners today from my ratings from 8 picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Should be posting tomorrow either here or the racing chat. Too busy in work to post all time but had society red and Fred winners today from my ratings from 8 picks. Me too but im off for next 5 days so I'll post loads races in the morning ....some good races tomorrow hopefully Wildgarden and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 One for tonight so far 615 Chelmsford lord ridderford 4.6 and Nigel nott 8.6 Betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: One for tonight so far 615 Chelmsford lord ridderford 4.6 and Nigel nott 8.6 Betfair exchange 5th and unseated ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 645 horses 1 - 7.8, 8 - 17.5 and 3 - 6.8 with cover on 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 645 horses 1 - 7.8, 8 - 17.5 and 3 - 6.8 with cover on 5 2nd and 4th but odds of weloof 8 came to 10.0 and the cover fav to 4.1 from 5.0 so not all bad ? Edited January 22, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 715 Chelmsford red bond 7.4 fighting tameire 11.0 win Betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 20 hours ago, Pirate53 said: Added a weighting to compensate re Win Win Power as above. New ratings: Channel Packet Rating 9.0 6/1 available at Bet 365. My odds 4/1 Win Win Power Rating 6.7 4/1 available My odds 11/2 Still no value here. Weloof Rating 6.3 13/2 available My odds 6/1 Casina Di Notte Rating 5.4 8/1 available My odds 7/1 Weloof clearly went out way to far at 17.5 to come back in. Watching these as day goes on can help form some value imo. Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 240 hay peter marsh Royal pigalle 7.6 7/1 3/1 no value Sam brown 7.4 7/1 3/1 no value Crievehill 6.7 17/2 20/1 ..outstanding value Sam's,adventure 7.4 7/1 11/2 no value Value bet crievehill.....10pt ew 20/1 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 28 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 715 Chelmsford red bond 7.4 fighting tameire 11.0 win Betfair exchange Disappointing unplaced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 745 Chelmsford Thai terrier 3.6 and tyncecastle 22 / 6.6 place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3.00 ascot Benny king 8.0 10/1 5/1 no value Capeland 8.6 9/1 15.5 good value Dashel drasher 8.2 9.5/1 7/1 no value Jonniesofa 9.0 17/2 26.0 outstanding value Value bets capeland 5pts win 15.5 5pts place 3.55 betfair Jonniesifa 5pts win 26.0 5pts place 5.3 betfair Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 745 Chelmsford Thai terrier 3.6 and tyncecastle 22 / 6.6 place. Thai terrier wins for small cover. Tyncecastle couldn't keep going. richard-westwood and Wild20 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 150 ascot Paddysmoterbike 8.0 17/2 6/1 no val Craigniche 8.0 9.5 /1 8/1 no value Dan's le vent 8.0 17/2 18.5 good value War lord 8.0 17/2 19.0 goid value Kateson 7.4 9.5 5/1 13/2 no value Light squeeze 7.4 9.5 11/2 no value Value bets Dan's le vent 5pt win 18.5 5pt place 4.6 betfair War lord 5pt win 19.0 ..5pt place 4.9 betfair Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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