Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 620 kempton going uncle dick 3.5 and semper 4-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 650 kempton I'll go the met 12.5 and elmejor 9.6 top rated here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 650 kemp I have 2 horses showing as value......espresso freddy ...10/1 I can get 18/1 ....ew bet365 .......also family fortunes tissue 7/1 I can get 11.5 betfair ....10 pt win latter ...5pt ew espresso Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 720 kempton pretty priced up but I'll go amber island Ew 6.6 /3.0 Betfair exchange richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 620 kempton going uncle dick 3.5 and semper 4-1 Close Baba just beaten uncle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 650 kempton I'll go the met 12.5 and elmejor 9.6 top rated here. Expresso started 39 BSP or so which was value compared to 10.6 % but that was as lequin low rated won. Edited January 16, 2021 by Wildgarden richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: 650 kemp I have 2 horses showing as value......espresso freddy ...10/1 I can get 18/1 ....ew bet365 .......also family fortunes tissue 7/1 I can get 11.5 betfair ....10 pt win latter ...5pt ew espresso 2nd and 3rd .....fantastic run especially on freddy 22/1!!!...ew .....they've run well today for sure vikki37 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 720 kempton pretty priced up but I'll go amber island Ew 6.6 /3.0 Betfair exchange Slightly off mark amber placed very close 2nd ;-( had place 2-1 at least LEE-GRAYS and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 750 bit late going Cape agent Baltic and in the red... Edited January 16, 2021 by Wildgarden vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 750 bit late going Cape agent Baltic and in the red... Low rated born to finish wins.. both agent and in the red placed some positive, with in the red going 2.0 Inplay! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 820 kempton stringly, Chetan and perfect sunset Betfair sp. Ew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 820 kempton stringly, Chetan and perfect sunset Betfair sp. Ew. Stringly and Chetan 2nd and 3rd, stringly just couldn't keep going to win, Chetan came on well. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 well done, all of you with the values and results. Very interesting and good luck going onwards and upwards. Wildgarden, The Brigadier and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, Trotter said: 1.25 Ling in current market order at bet365 3/1 Fav Intuitive - I make a 20/1 shot - poor 10/3 Corazon Esp - I make 13/5 - about right 4/1 Fox - I make 12/1 - poor 6/1 Papa - I make 12/1 - poor 15/2 Crownth - I make 4/1 - looks OK 9/1 - Lord - I make 9/1 - about right 10/1 Moha - I make 20/1 - poor 20/1 Miss - I make 9/2 ! - EW ? So I make the outsider the best for 'value' and possible EW shot though there are just the 8 runners so could be scuppered by a NR Of the more fancied ones Crownthorpe the value for a Win bet This race does point up a problem though in that two of the market leaders (Intuitive and Fox Power) are lightly raced types who haven't earned many points yet but have potential to be ahead of the handicapper. Obviously awarding points for what they have done up to now doesn't take account of this....... whereas if you were doing good old fashioned form study you would include an assessment of what the horse might be capable of as well as what it's already achieved. That's a problem with any points based system On the other hand you might think it's an advantage only to rate a horse on what it's already done and take hype, trainer & jockey quotes, pundits opinions, big yard and big connections bias out of the equation. edited .... got a mixed up with the odds on the two outsiders ! Maybe we could add so many points to a favourite or 2nd favourite without form due to fact they are backed.. say 40% like form would get. I am going to trial this as it clearly affected few of mine on 2 races. Or no form could add points on according to horses odds percentage probably better. Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 105 Lingfield nearly a point value in katty at 5.3 Betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 105 Lingfield nearly a point value in katty at 5.3 Betfair exchange Its southwell lol .....and I look at that race ...fast form at ling and Katty is proven on fibresand ....big diff from ling so that gives katty a distinct advantage today....price is value indeed Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 205 southwell close affair as odds and rating shows... My boy Lewis has fibresand debut, so going with headland which looks handy at 14-1 Ew (Ladbrokes) who has luke.morris on board today who might not push it so early as was last race! Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 8 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Maybe we could add so many points to a favourite or 2nd favourite without form due to fact they are backed.. say 40% like form would get. I am going to trial this as it clearly affected few of mine on 2 races. Or no form could add points on according to horses odds percentage probably better. I'm not really keen on including 'market position' or forecast odds or actual odds in any rating system .... or in any of the trends type approach I reckon the point of doing any sort of ratings or trends analysis is to discover which horse you think 'should' be favourite and hopefully it will be one that the market has missed and then you can get some value If you're skewing your ratings towards the favourite by giving him extra points it seems to defeat the object Wildgarden and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 just to add ........ if you look at the race and there's a potential Frankel who doesn't earn any points because he's only run once but is 10/1 on and from the O'Brien yard ..... well, just move on to the next race and give that one a miss! or concentrate on EW shots Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Trotter said: just to add ........ if you look at the race and there's a potential Frankel who doesn't earn any points because he's only run once but is 10/1 on and from the O'Brien yard ..... well, just move on to the next race and give that one a miss! or concentrate on EW shots Has certainly brought up Ew shots so far! Today we are going to win ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 235 southwell close affair on ratings but notation won by 16l lto! I like murkha magic Ew 4-1 bet365 who could upset if notation has a bad day! Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 305 southwell much improved this year, grimsthorpe castle may like the step down in trip and class and gets the nod at 9.6 Betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 You can see its definately finding value bets .......theres been quite a few races where I've looked at a horse and thought that looks decent only for the rating to say this 5/1 should be 10/1 and the horse has duly lost so its finding....good bets .....a lot will be ew but when they win in turn you'll do well ......if you put all the races weve done in a long list its impressive reading .....no way youd pick that many good bets ........think of it as our own version of price wise which effectively is what it is .....he didn't win every week but when you do win your profits shoot forward ....... Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I think trotter hit the nail......look at the race first.....if theres a much touted fav .....who's considered a massive improver etc ....probably best to just avoid the race .....really this should come into it's own in the big hcaps ....that's where pricewise had his big wins .....we are gonna get some serious winners.....its inevitable because the foundation is solid vikki37 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) deleted .... premature clicking when I hadn't finished typing Edited January 17, 2021 by Trotter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Sou 2.05 My EW selection (Headland) is a non runner ..... although with only 7 declared it didn't look like a good EW race Of course that affects the total number of points so I've had to re-do the odds ! Top rated (now 6 runners, 2 places EW) 1 Amadeus Grey 11 2 Thrave 7 3 My Boy Lewis 6 Value As it turns out the three top rated are the only three available at bigger odds than my estimates Amadeus Grey is 9/4 (my odds 13/8) Thrave is 11/2 (my odds 16/5) My Boy Lewis is 13/2 ( my odds 4/1) Bet365 prices any of them look decent value according to me ..... whichever one you fancy the reason for this is that the current 2nd and 3rd favourites (in a 6 runner race) are massive prices on my list which is distorting the market compared to my ratings Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Sou 2.35 Another small field - only 5 runners ...... possible EW race with 2 places. That's 2/5 places for EW which is 40% which is the biggest number for any size of field and theoretically makes EW betting in 5 runner races advantageous to the punter, particularly with quarter odds (though obviously a non runner would scupper your bet) top rated Notation 9 Mukha Magic 5 value the horses available at bigger odds (bet 365) than my estimates are Arabian King 13/2 ( my odds 5/1) Chipiron 7/1 (my odds 4/1) There's nothing outstanding here Take a punt on Chipiron EW 7/1 ....... only 2 places but quarter odds Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Sou 3.35 Decent sized field for this one - nine runners so EW possibilities top rated Requinto Dawn 10 Zylan 9 Equidae 6 Katheefa 6 value horses available at bigger odds (bet365) than my estimates ... Requinto Dawn 8/1 (my odds 4/1) Shacka booha 20/1 (my odds 16/1) Bellevarde 20/1 (my odds 19/2) I suppose Requinto Dawn is the obvious Win selection Bellevarde EW The one I fancy is Katheefa but the bookies have the odds about the same as my estimate (bet365 7/1, my odds 15/2) so I guess it doesn't count as 'value' Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 105 Lingfield nearly a point value in katty at 5.3 Betfair exchange Top rated fast Emma wins at 5.8 BSP and moved into value... Value pick katty 3rd at 3.5 bsp... Edited January 17, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 335 southwell. Picks are katheefa 8.8 and requinto dawn 9.8 Betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.