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Pricing your own race


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21 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

410 Newcastle rated. Very close race! Global homour looks value atm 18.5 on exchange which I've taken. Which Richard also had - hopefully a sign!Screenshot_20210114-210322.thumb.png.eb30e0545352f29d99fbbdb262c28294.png

Added rockley which I got 18-1 on Betfair and lost by a neck! Global not far 6th winner loulin rated 13% started 10-1 so also qualified as small value. Also.loulin was top rated!

Edited by Wildgarden
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24 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Certainly shows you value can  be measured ....like ive said before ....they dont always win but you've seen how often they place at decent prices .....its that long term return that will see you on top long term ....

Yep could have done trade on rockley in play and global honour could have traded out before race for £24 from tenner. Will do some.more ratings soon. Got Leo minor Ew 700

Edited by Wildgarden
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Rated the classic chase ..3.00 warwick saturday .......poor race value wise nearly all are poor value except 1 horse ......achille ....value is 10/1 ....can get 14/1 with bet365 ......hasn't run for 400 days so I was gonna ignore him but sporting life gave him a very favourable write up saying he was a value bet so I'll try 5pts ew 

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Actually finding it quicker to do on paper ......as I'm scoring each horse I.e ....8 ......I know the percentage for section 1 is 30 (.3 after dividing )....so I automatically just do the sum 8x.3 =2.4 in my head and write that down in section 1 .....saves loads of time later.....its only taking me 20 to 30 mins to rate a 14 runner race now using that 

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14 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Actually finding it quicker to do on paper ......as I'm scoring each horse I.e ....8 ......I know the percentage for section 1 is 30 (.3 after dividing )....so I automatically just do the sum 8x.3 =2.4 in my head and write that down in section 1 .....saves loads of time later.....its only taking me 20 to 30 mins to rate a 14 runner race now using that 

I already have the 2.4 on the spreadsheet and I pick that like u said. Then I have all the calculations done ready for percentages etc takes 20 minutes.

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1.15 Warwick

small field but that’s what I’m concentrating on. Surprisingly I’ve found good value in this race 

Generous Day 18, 11/1( 3/1)

Equus Millar 12, 11/2(9/2)

Amoola Gold 11, 9/4(5/1

Sky Pirate 11, Evens (5/1)

 

Could be well off but we’ll see. I like horses that are well handicapped and top rated is. He’s also 2/2 at Warwick which puts emphasis on jumping . 

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On 1/14/2021 at 4:23 PM, richard-westwood said:

If anyone wants to try this spreadsheet out p.m me your email and I'll try and transfer from onedrive 

Only 14 horses .....top 5 fields on the left are 5 sections to fill in your percentages ....it is based on using 5 sections so for this first sheet you need to fill them all in 

14 horses underneath each with 5 score sections to fill in ....once you've done that the sheet should automatically calculate the value percentage.....if your only doing a 12 horse race insert 0 in the fields your not using ....it might alter the score very slightly but in tests it's near as dammit.....if you find any bugs let me know ....Ive tried to iron most of them out 

Hi Richard. Could you please send me the file to try. [email protected] thanks a million 

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1.25 Ling 

in current market order at bet365

3/1 Fav Intuitive - I make a 20/1 shot - poor
10/3 Corazon Esp - I make 13/5 - about right
4/1 Fox - I make 12/1 - poor
6/1 Papa - I make 12/1 - poor
15/2 Crownth - I make 4/1 - looks OK 
9/1 - Lord - I make 9/1 - about right
10/1 Moha - I make 20/1 - poor
20/1 Miss - I make 9/2 ! - EW ?

So I make the outsider the best for 'value' and possible EW shot though there are just the 8 runners so could be scuppered by a NR

Of the more fancied ones Crownthorpe the value for a Win bet

This race does point up a problem though in that two of the market leaders (Intuitive and Fox Power) are lightly raced types who haven't earned many points yet but have potential to be ahead of the handicapper. Obviously awarding points for what they have done up to now doesn't take account of this....... whereas if you were doing good old fashioned form study you would include an assessment of what the horse might be capable of as well as what it's already achieved. That's a problem with any points based system

On the other hand you might think it's an advantage only to rate a horse on what it's already done and take hype, trainer & jockey quotes, pundits opinions, big yard and big connections bias out of the equation.

edited .... got a mixed up with the odds on the two outsiders !

Edited by Trotter
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2 hours ago, Trotter said:

1.25 Ling 

in current market order at bet365

3/1 Fav Intuitive - I make a 20/1 shot - poor
10/3 Corazon Esp - I make 13/5 - about right
4/1 Fox - I make 12/1 - poor
6/1 Papa - I make 12/1 - poor
15/2 Crownth - I make 4/1 - looks OK 
9/1 - Lord - I make 9/1 - about right
10/1 Moha - I make 20/1 - poor
20/1 Miss - I make 9/2 ! - EW ?

So I make the outsider the best for 'value' and possible EW shot though there are just the 8 runners so could be scuppered by a NR

Of the more fancied ones Crownthorpe the value for a Win bet

This race does point up a problem though in that two of the market leaders (Intuitive and Fox Power) are lightly raced types who haven't earned many points yet but have potential to be ahead of the handicapper. Obviously awarding points for what they have done up to now doesn't take account of this....... whereas if you were doing good old fashioned form study you would include an assessment of what the horse might be capable of as well as what it's already achieved. That's a problem with any points based system

On the other hand you might think it's an advantage only to rate a horse on what it's already done and take hype, trainer & jockey quotes, pundits opinions, big yard and big connections bias out of the equation.

edited .... got a mixed up with the odds on the two outsiders !

Mission Boy finished 2nd at SP 18/1

Intuitive illustrates the point i was making .... didn't feature on my ratings because it hasn't done anything yet. However it was overnight favourite, was clearly expected to be an improving horse and won doing handstands

If these same 8 runners faced each other in a similar race at Ling next week Intuitive would probably be at the top of my ratings because now he'll have a last time out win and  a CD win, ........... so the ratings only take into account what the horse has done up to now whereas a successful punter will always try to assess what the horse is capable of in the future, ie today's race

Don't forget that when doing 'value' it's not the same as trying to pick winners ...... if you're just picking winners then you'd pick your top rated for every race. If you don't think your top rated is going to win then you have no confidence in your own ratings and there's not much point doing them!

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Mission Boy finished 2nd at SP 18/1

Intuitive illustrates the point i was making .... didn't feature on my ratings because it hasn't done anything yet. However it was overnight favourite, was clearly expected to be an improving horse and won doing handstands

If these same 8 runners faced each other in a similar race at Ling next week Intuitive would probably be at the top of my ratings because now he'll have a last time out win and  a CD win, ........... so the ratings only take into account what the horse has done up to now whereas a successful punter will always try to assess what the horse is capable of in the future, ie today's race

Don't forget that when doing 'value' it's not the same as trying to pick winners ...... if you're just picking winners then you'd pick your top rated for every race. If you don't think your top rated is going to win then you have no confidence in your own ratings and there's not much point doing them!

 

 

Two or three top rated (loulin and cafe Sydney) of mine won I think so far.

Edited by Wildgarden
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20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Rated the classic chase ..3.00 warwick saturday .......poor race value wise nearly all are poor value except 1 horse ......achille ....value is 10/1 ....can get 14/1 with bet365 ......hasn't run for 400 days so I was gonna ignore him but sporting life gave him a very favourable write up saying he was a value bet so I'll try 5pts ew 

 

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

 

I'll back criwnthorpe 10pt win 9/2 bet365

Papa stour 5pt ew 13/2 bet365 

Count otto 10pt ew 10/1 bet365 

 

That's impressive .....420 days off ....just gets beat 2nd.....then count otto wins ....good day for the value bets....I think about 158 points returned at advised stakes 

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46 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Mission Boy finished 2nd at SP 18/1

Intuitive illustrates the point i was making .... didn't feature on my ratings because it hasn't done anything yet. However it was overnight favourite, was clearly expected to be an improving horse and won doing handstands

If these same 8 runners faced each other in a similar race at Ling next week Intuitive would probably be at the top of my ratings because now he'll have a last time out win and  a CD win, ........... so the ratings only take into account what the horse has done up to now whereas a successful punter will always try to assess what the horse is capable of in the future, ie today's race

Don't forget that when doing 'value' it's not the same as trying to pick winners ...... if you're just picking winners then you'd pick your top rated for every race. If you don't think your top rated is going to win then you have no confidence in your own ratings and there's not much point doing them!

 

 

Yes it's difficult to understand that sometimes .....your looking for those big priced placed horses that are gonna win ..."sometimes" .....and when they do your profits shoot up ....gotta say ....the performance to date has been way better than I ever imagined .....well worth the effort 

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