Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 (edited) 21 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 410 Newcastle rated. Very close race! Global homour looks value atm 18.5 on exchange which I've taken. Which Richard also had - hopefully a sign! Added rockley which I got 18-1 on Betfair and lost by a neck! Global not far 6th winner loulin rated 13% started 10-1 so also qualified as small value. Also.loulin was top rated! Edited January 15, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 430 southwell rating. Left others out 0.2 points lol taravina 8.0 socru 7.2 Betfair exchange value Socru and British 3rd and 4th not far off. Winner crazy lowest rating came in on odds must be sign of its improvement! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Certainly shows you value can be measured ....like ive said before ....they dont always win but you've seen how often they place at decent prices .....its that long term return that will see you on top long term .... Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Certainly shows you value can be measured ....like ive said before ....they dont always win but you've seen how often they place at decent prices .....its that long term return that will see you on top long term .... Yep could have done trade on rockley in play and global honour could have traded out before race for £24 from tenner. Will do some.more ratings soon. Got Leo minor Ew 700 Edited January 15, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Rated the classic chase ..3.00 warwick saturday .......poor race value wise nearly all are poor value except 1 horse ......achille ....value is 10/1 ....can get 14/1 with bet365 ......hasn't run for 400 days so I was gonna ignore him but sporting life gave him a very favourable write up saying he was a value bet so I'll try 5pts ew Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Actually finding it quicker to do on paper ......as I'm scoring each horse I.e ....8 ......I know the percentage for section 1 is 30 (.3 after dividing )....so I automatically just do the sum 8x.3 =2.4 in my head and write that down in section 1 .....saves loads of time later.....its only taking me 20 to 30 mins to rate a 14 runner race now using that Wildgarden and Alley Cat Glover 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Actually finding it quicker to do on paper ......as I'm scoring each horse I.e ....8 ......I know the percentage for section 1 is 30 (.3 after dividing )....so I automatically just do the sum 8x.3 =2.4 in my head and write that down in section 1 .....saves loads of time later.....its only taking me 20 to 30 mins to rate a 14 runner race now using that I already have the 2.4 on the spreadsheet and I pick that like u said. Then I have all the calculations done ready for percentages etc takes 20 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 (edited) 35 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: resdev and carbonator ... 730 southwell Edited January 15, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: resdev and carbonator ... 730 southwell Resdev ran a cracking race for a 40/1 shot Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: resdev and carbonator ... 730 southwell Fav artistic won resdev wasn't far off and just missed out on place at big price 5.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1.15 Warwick small field but that’s what I’m concentrating on. Surprisingly I’ve found good value in this race Generous Day 18, 11/1( 3/1) Equus Millar 12, 11/2(9/2) Amoola Gold 11, 9/4(5/1 Sky Pirate 11, Evens (5/1) Could be well off but we’ll see. I like horses that are well handicapped and top rated is. He’s also 2/2 at Warwick which puts emphasis on jumping . richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 (edited) Market Rasen 12.20 Agamemmon 16, 16/1 (3/1) Mac Tottie 13, 11/4 (4/1) Sizing Cusimano 11 , 11/2 (9/2-5/1 Edited January 16, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Burning the midnight oil 1145 Lingfield ratings Confab 16-1 betvictor and regulator 14.5 exchanges currently some value richard-westwood and Wild20 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augustus Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:23 PM, richard-westwood said: If anyone wants to try this spreadsheet out p.m me your email and I'll try and transfer from onedrive Only 14 horses .....top 5 fields on the left are 5 sections to fill in your percentages ....it is based on using 5 sections so for this first sheet you need to fill them all in 14 horses underneath each with 5 score sections to fill in ....once you've done that the sheet should automatically calculate the value percentage.....if your only doing a 12 horse race insert 0 in the fields your not using ....it might alter the score very slightly but in tests it's near as dammit.....if you find any bugs let me know ....Ive tried to iron most of them out Hi Richard. Could you please send me the file to try. [email protected] thanks a million richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 1.25 Ling in current market order at bet365 3/1 Fav Intuitive - I make a 20/1 shot - poor 10/3 Corazon Esp - I make 13/5 - about right 4/1 Fox - I make 12/1 - poor 6/1 Papa - I make 12/1 - poor 15/2 Crownth - I make 4/1 - looks OK 9/1 - Lord - I make 9/1 - about right 10/1 Moha - I make 20/1 - poor 20/1 Miss - I make 9/2 ! - EW ? So I make the outsider the best for 'value' and possible EW shot though there are just the 8 runners so could be scuppered by a NR Of the more fancied ones Crownthorpe the value for a Win bet This race does point up a problem though in that two of the market leaders (Intuitive and Fox Power) are lightly raced types who haven't earned many points yet but have potential to be ahead of the handicapper. Obviously awarding points for what they have done up to now doesn't take account of this....... whereas if you were doing good old fashioned form study you would include an assessment of what the horse might be capable of as well as what it's already achieved. That's a problem with any points based system On the other hand you might think it's an advantage only to rate a horse on what it's already done and take hype, trainer & jockey quotes, pundits opinions, big yard and big connections bias out of the equation. edited .... got a mixed up with the odds on the two outsiders ! Edited January 16, 2021 by Trotter twinny, richard-westwood and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 125 Lingfield papa is 7.6 crownthorpe 8.2 and 16.5 mohareb are value picks. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 10 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Burning the midnight oil 1145 Lingfield ratings Confab 16-1 betvictor and regulator 14.5 exchanges currently some value Covered with top rated cafe sydney who duly won richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 200 lingfield rated - black.medick 15.5 lunar deity 17.5 and winklemann 22 or rhyme scheme 20 all could.upset fav... Edited January 16, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 125 Lingfield papa is 7.6 crownthorpe 8.2 and 16.5 mohareb are value picks. Mohareb placed 3-1 for loss 2 points. ;-( somehow left Intuitive off could be an issue. May have made only mohareb value lol Edited January 16, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 51 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 200 lingfield rated - black.medick 15.5 lunar deity 17.5 and winklemann 22 or rhyme scheme 20 all could.upset fav... Some value sky lake 2nd black medick 3rd. Right to go against favourite just unlucky not to get win richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Trotter said: 1.25 Ling in current market order at bet365 3/1 Fav Intuitive - I make a 20/1 shot - poor 10/3 Corazon Esp - I make 13/5 - about right 4/1 Fox - I make 12/1 - poor 6/1 Papa - I make 12/1 - poor 15/2 Crownth - I make 4/1 - looks OK 9/1 - Lord - I make 9/1 - about right 10/1 Moha - I make 20/1 - poor 20/1 Miss - I make 9/2 ! - EW ? So I make the outsider the best for 'value' and possible EW shot though there are just the 8 runners so could be scuppered by a NR Of the more fancied ones Crownthorpe the value for a Win bet This race does point up a problem though in that two of the market leaders (Intuitive and Fox Power) are lightly raced types who haven't earned many points yet but have potential to be ahead of the handicapper. Obviously awarding points for what they have done up to now doesn't take account of this....... whereas if you were doing good old fashioned form study you would include an assessment of what the horse might be capable of as well as what it's already achieved. That's a problem with any points based system On the other hand you might think it's an advantage only to rate a horse on what it's already done and take hype, trainer & jockey quotes, pundits opinions, big yard and big connections bias out of the equation. edited .... got a mixed up with the odds on the two outsiders ! Mission Boy finished 2nd at SP 18/1 Intuitive illustrates the point i was making .... didn't feature on my ratings because it hasn't done anything yet. However it was overnight favourite, was clearly expected to be an improving horse and won doing handstands If these same 8 runners faced each other in a similar race at Ling next week Intuitive would probably be at the top of my ratings because now he'll have a last time out win and a CD win, ........... so the ratings only take into account what the horse has done up to now whereas a successful punter will always try to assess what the horse is capable of in the future, ie today's race Don't forget that when doing 'value' it's not the same as trying to pick winners ...... if you're just picking winners then you'd pick your top rated for every race. If you don't think your top rated is going to win then you have no confidence in your own ratings and there's not much point doing them! Wildgarden and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Trotter said: Mission Boy finished 2nd at SP 18/1 Intuitive illustrates the point i was making .... didn't feature on my ratings because it hasn't done anything yet. However it was overnight favourite, was clearly expected to be an improving horse and won doing handstands If these same 8 runners faced each other in a similar race at Ling next week Intuitive would probably be at the top of my ratings because now he'll have a last time out win and a CD win, ........... so the ratings only take into account what the horse has done up to now whereas a successful punter will always try to assess what the horse is capable of in the future, ie today's race Don't forget that when doing 'value' it's not the same as trying to pick winners ...... if you're just picking winners then you'd pick your top rated for every race. If you don't think your top rated is going to win then you have no confidence in your own ratings and there's not much point doing them! Two or three top rated (loulin and cafe Sydney) of mine won I think so far. Edited January 16, 2021 by Wildgarden richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 20 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Rated the classic chase ..3.00 warwick saturday .......poor race value wise nearly all are poor value except 1 horse ......achille ....value is 10/1 ....can get 14/1 with bet365 ......hasn't run for 400 days so I was gonna ignore him but sporting life gave him a very favourable write up saying he was a value bet so I'll try 5pts ew 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I'll back criwnthorpe 10pt win 9/2 bet365 Papa stour 5pt ew 13/2 bet365 Count otto 10pt ew 10/1 bet365 That's impressive .....420 days off ....just gets beat 2nd.....then count otto wins ....good day for the value bets....I think about 158 points returned at advised stakes Wildgarden and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Loving the value bets ....well done everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 345 Lingfield Capp 7.6 and paddy 13.5 value with swiss to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 46 minutes ago, Trotter said: Mission Boy finished 2nd at SP 18/1 Intuitive illustrates the point i was making .... didn't feature on my ratings because it hasn't done anything yet. However it was overnight favourite, was clearly expected to be an improving horse and won doing handstands If these same 8 runners faced each other in a similar race at Ling next week Intuitive would probably be at the top of my ratings because now he'll have a last time out win and a CD win, ........... so the ratings only take into account what the horse has done up to now whereas a successful punter will always try to assess what the horse is capable of in the future, ie today's race Don't forget that when doing 'value' it's not the same as trying to pick winners ...... if you're just picking winners then you'd pick your top rated for every race. If you don't think your top rated is going to win then you have no confidence in your own ratings and there's not much point doing them! Yes it's difficult to understand that sometimes .....your looking for those big priced placed horses that are gonna win ..."sometimes" .....and when they do your profits shoot up ....gotta say ....the performance to date has been way better than I ever imagined .....well worth the effort Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 345 Lingfield Capp 7.6 and paddy 13.5 value with swiss to lose. Swiss beat capp by a nose ;-( top rated wins. Edited January 16, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Wildgarden said: Swiss beat capp by a nose ;-( Still good rating Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: Still good rating Yeah capp lower Betfair sp than quoted price and paddy same price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 No gain from me today. Generous day was backed into 11/2 from 11s which seemed promising but could only finish third . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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