richard-westwood Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Trotter said: I know what you mean .... I follow what you're saying My fields are not equal because there's a different amount of points available within each field ......... for example 'Form' accounts for 55% of the total available points and it is flexible in that I can adjust the number of points available within each field............ or indeed add new fields as things occur to me going along Basically I'm just awarding different number of points to each field whereas you are awarding different percentages to each field ? We're both ranking the various factors but just in a different way! Yes I can see ....well if it works for you then who cares how you do it....its the end result that counts ? Trotter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Cheers richard ....... interesting discussion! good luck ........ ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Rated 630 Chelmsford with my own take... Top two look like no value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 hours ago, Trotter said: Cheers richard ....... interesting discussion! good luck ........ ? Yeah weve gone from barely value to everyone hunting for value bets in a few days ....its brilliant ...I can see big things happening in this thread....I'm so looking forward to some big races later on ....I really think it will throw up some good winners long term ....it already has .......I will try and do a spreadsheet in the next month or two to automate the whole process and give those who struggle with the maths a chance to use too but I'm swamped at work with this lockdown currently ....no staff due to self isolating etc .....but its top of my to do list now ....especially with hopefully chelt fest on the way if it goes ahead....would be a handy thing to have then I'm sure especially if we can do it in a 1/3 of the time!! Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I’m in . I’ll do that Chelmsford race in a bit, although it’s just trial, with no money bet on it. Need to review how I do my ratings , because I’m not happy with them, but trial and error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 As richard said earlier in the thread you should be mainly looking at the horses who are at the top end of your ratings I mean, you might have a horse which you've assessed at 33/1 and you can get 66/1 ...... looks terrific 'value' but it's still a 33/1 in your estimation So with that in mind and with a non runner being my choice in the race I did last night .... here's my odds for my top rated 3 in a couple of races at Chelmsford with current bet365 odds 7.00 14 points - Old News - my odds 16/5 - current odds 13/2 (Win) 8 points - Casaruan - my odds 13/2 - current odds 10/1 (EW) 7 points - Strawberry Jack - my odds 8/1 - current odds 8/1 8.00 13 points - No Nay Bella - my odds 13/5 - current odds 3/1 (Win) 11 points - Arij - my odds 10/3 - current odds 6/4 10 points - Numberoneson - my odds 18/5 - current odds 14/1 (EW if no NR) In the 7.00 the top two look decent value and Strawberry Jack is priced about right In the 8.00 Arij looks poor value, No Nay Bella is about right and should be favourite, Numberoneson is an EW shot but could be scuppered by a non runner (dead 8 in) Torque, BBBC and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 How would I upload a spreadsheet onto here ??? I think I might have finished a rough version it seems to be working ok so far Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) If anyone wants to try this spreadsheet out p.m me your email and I'll try and transfer from onedrive Only 14 horses .....top 5 fields on the left are 5 sections to fill in your percentages ....it is based on using 5 sections so for this first sheet you need to fill them all in 14 horses underneath each with 5 score sections to fill in ....once you've done that the sheet should automatically calculate the value percentage.....if your only doing a 12 horse race insert 0 in the fields your not using ....it might alter the score very slightly but in tests it's near as dammit.....if you find any bugs let me know ....Ive tried to iron most of them out Edited January 14, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: How would I upload a spreadsheet onto here ??? I think I might have finished a rough version it seems to be working ok so far 8 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Clip button on bottom left side of message Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Clip button on bottom left side of message It will only upload jpeg and gif etc Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) Glen Cocco 18 , 10/1 (5/1-9/2) Strawberry Jack 17, 13/2 (5/1) Casaruan 15, 17/2 (6/1) Johnny Reb 14, 13/2 (13/2) Old News 13, 13/2 (7/1) These are my top 5 for the 7.00 at Chelmsford . The top 3 offer decent value especially top rated Glen Cocco. You’ll notice his recent form isn’t good but he’s dropped to a mark in which he’s won off higher in the past. It’s basically rough ratings which need touching up on, but I’m lacking the time . Horses 4,5 I’d say bookies have them spot on. My price in brackets Edited January 14, 2021 by Villa Chris Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, Wildgarden said: Rated 630 Chelmsford with my own take... Top two look like no value. Since last night both top odds horses river and golden have moved out. My early rating has shown some promise! Took 20-1 on junoescue Ew. Now 12-1 or less. Edited January 14, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) Quickly rated 700... Casaruan best Ones I left out are low rates anyway. Edited January 14, 2021 by Wildgarden Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 47 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Glen Cocco 18 , 10/1 (5/1-9/2) Strawberry Jack 17, 13/2 (5/1) Casaruan 15, 17/2 (6/1) Johnny Reb 14, 13/2 (13/2) Old News 13, 13/2 (7/1) These are my top 5 for the 7.00 at Chelmsford . The top 3 offer decent value especially top rated Glen Cocco. You’ll notice his recent form isn’t good but he’s dropped to a mark in which he’s won off higher in the past. It’s basically rough ratings which need touching up on, but I’m lacking the time . Horses 4,5 I’d say bookies have them spot on. My price in brackets Top rated Glen Coco beaten by a neck. Not sure if that means I’ve rated it well because the others below him didn’t threaten, so may have been luck . Wildgarden and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: If anyone wants to try this spreadsheet out p.m me your email and I'll try and transfer from onedrive Only 14 horses .....top 5 fields on the left are 5 sections to fill in your percentages ....it is based on using 5 sections so for this first sheet you need to fill them all in 14 horses underneath each with 5 score sections to fill in ....once you've done that the sheet should automatically calculate the value percentage.....if your only doing a 12 horse race insert 0 in the fields your not using ....it might alter the score very slightly but in tests it's near as dammit.....if you find any bugs let me know ....Ive tried to iron most of them out Does it transfer to notepad and pen ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 800 Chelmsford rating. Raffles and packet possible value... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 410 newc Wide open race....but pearl of quatar and global humour are in the top 5 form ....and 5pts above their price at 14/1 ....shoukd be 9.....so look ew bets Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 800 Chelmsford rating. Raffles and packet possible value... Dark pine wins... One of the lower rated at 11.8 betfair price which was about what chance of winning gave it. Channel packet placed at 4.1 for money back (for me at least) richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 410 Newcastle rated. Very close race! Global homour looks value atm 18.5 on exchange which I've taken. Which Richard also had - hopefully a sign! Edited January 14, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: 410 Newcastle rated. Very close race! Global homour looks value atm 18.5 on exchange which I've taken. Which Richard also had - hopefully a sign! Yes rheres seems a lot of value in that horse ....there are 4 or 5 in with chances but hes definately overpriced that's pretty obvious....especially as hes flagged on both of ours ...interesting race Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1.25 ling Saturday Odds avail Fox power 10/1 4/1 no value Intuitive 11/2 4/1: no value Crownthirpe 9/2 9/2 value Corazon espinado 11/2 9/2 no value Papa stout 6/1 13/2 value Lord rap 7/1 11/2 no value Overall only 1 bookie priced up so far ......but currently the 9/2 on criwnthorpe looks value .....or better later ??.......and the 13/2 on papa stour......value at 6/1 + .......will update later when prices come on line Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 35 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 1.25 ling Saturday Odds avail Fox power 10/1 4/1 no value Intuitive 11/2 4/1: no value Crownthirpe 9/2 9/2 value Corazon espinado 11/2 9/2 no value Papa stout 6/1 13/2 value Lord rap 7/1 11/2 no value Overall only 1 bookie priced up so far ......but currently the 9/2 on criwnthorpe looks value .....or better later ??.......and the 13/2 on papa stour......value at 6/1 + .......will update later when prices come on line Look for better value race or keep eye on prices see if some become value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: Look for better value race or keep eye on prices see if some become value? The prices are ok but I think betfair of another bookie might offer better later ......form ratings are : crown 9.2 corazon 7.8 Intuitive 7.7 papa stour 7.2 so crownthorpe looks a strong bet and is a value price ....exactly what we are looking for papa stour is more an ew bet at 6/1+ I am looking at other races too .....will probably rate 1 or 2 more as well Edited January 15, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 (edited) 310 ling saturday Val Odds avail Huuraz 10/1 8/1 novalue Will to win 10/1 10/1 inflated Top breeze 10/1 7/1 novalue Total commit 5/1 7/2 novalue Recon mission 9/1 100/30 poorvalue Kondratiev wave 9/1 14/1 value Sun power 8/1 7/2 poor value Stake acclaim 13/1 20/1 inflated Count otto 7/1 9/1 good value Deputies 13/1 25/1 inflated Currently ....count otto ew is the value bet .......with kondratiev wave 2nd best ..count otto is 1.3pts ahead of kondratiev on ratings .. but there is a strong fav in total commitment on form so I'll be going ew on count otto .....check prices later to see if can get better than 9 Edited January 15, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 430 southwell rating. Left others out 0.2 points lol taravina 8.0 socru 7.2 Betfair exchange value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 430 southwell rating. Left others out 0.2 points lol taravina 8.0 socru 7.2 Betfair exchange value With tavrina .. chance of winning 5% that equates to around 17 or 18 /1 are you saying it was value at 8 ?.....Socru definately at 4/1 if you can get 8 on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I need to re-think my approach. When I applied it to an 11 runner race the odds I ended up with ranged from 9/1 to 11/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: With tavrina .. chance of winning 5% that equates to around 17 or 18 /1 are you saying it was value at 8 ?.....Socru definately at 4/1 if you can get 8 on Whoops meant british richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 hours ago, richard-westwood said: The prices are ok but I think betfair of another bookie might offer better later ......form ratings are : crown 9.2 corazon 7.8 Intuitive 7.7 papa stour 7.2 so crownthorpe looks a strong bet and is a value price ....exactly what we are looking for papa stour is more an ew bet at 6/1+ I am looking at other races too .....will probably rate 1 or 2 more as well 3 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 310 ling saturday Val Odds avail Huuraz 10/1 8/1 novalue Will to win 10/1 10/1 inflated Top breeze 10/1 7/1 novalue Total commit 5/1 7/2 novalue Recon mission 9/1 100/30 poorvalue Kondratiev wave 9/1 14/1 value Sun power 8/1 7/2 poor value Stake acclaim 13/1 20/1 inflated Count otto 7/1 9/1 good value Deputies 13/1 25/1 inflated Currently ....count otto ew is the value bet .......with kondratiev wave 2nd best ..count otto is 1.3pts ahead of kondratiev on ratings .. but there is a strong fav in total commitment on form so I'll be going ew on count otto .....check prices later to see if can get better than 9 I'll back criwnthorpe 10pt win 9/2 bet365 Papa stour 5pt ew 13/2 bet365 Count otto 10pt ew 10/1 bet365 Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 20 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 410 newc Wide open race....but pearl of quatar and global humour are in the top 5 form ....and 5pts above their price at 14/1 ....shoukd be 9.....so look ew bets Pearl of quatar 3rd ....not far away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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