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Pricing your own race


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17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

1240 ling sunday

Violets lad  8.1  13/2 8/1  value 

Narjes 7.2  15/2  5/1  no value 

Megale msjeure 6.7 9/1  7/2 no value 

Violets lad value bet ew 8/1 pp

Having a small debate with myself this morning ......yesterday I noticed that all horses within 0.8 of top rated provided nearly all the winners .....the ratings as,a form tool alone are really good.....but the winners are not  necessarily the value bets .....they are placing yes which corresponds to the value bet but the higher rated less value horses are winning  ... .. ....in tge above race that would mean the winner most likely narjes or violet lad ....as you can get 9/2 or 8/1  on both is that such a bad bet or any less value if they win if theres only 3 or 4 horses highly rated ????...making money is the name of the game after all ..I'll keep an eye on how they perform side by side with the value bets

Edited by richard-westwood
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With 3 NR's since yesterday, the shape of the 1.10 has altered some.

Genuine Approval    20.35        My odds 5/1      11/2    Some value

Zayriyan                  18.65        My odds 11/2      2/1    No value

Lady Of York           18.25        My odds  6/1      15/2   Some value

Socru                      17.25         My odds  6/1      15/2   Some value

Global Style            16.70         My odds 11/2      5/2   No value

Blairlogie is 11/1 and I have 13/2 and looks a bet! Lol!

Edited by Pirate53
Updated current price
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16 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Having a small debate with myself this morning ......yesterday I noticed that all horses within 0.8 of top rated provided nearly all the winners .....the ratings as,a form tool alone are really good.....but the winners are not  necessarily the value bets .....they are placing yes which corresponds to the value bet but the higher rated less value horses are winning  ... .. ....in tge above race that would mean the winner most likely narjes or violet lad ....as you can get 9/2 or 8/1  on both is that such a bad bet or any less value if they win if theres only 3 or 4 horses highly rated ????...making money is the name of the game after all ..I'll keep an eye on how they perform side by side with the value bets

My top rated are also the winners. The 10-1 yday was top rated as many others.

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16 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

My top rated are also the winners. The 10-1 yday was top rated as many others.

That's what I mean the top rated are winning a lot but sometimes are a shade outside the value but still win anyway .....theres a lot of winners coming from top 2 or 3 .......I suppose what that's saying to me is the value bet shouldn't be backed unless itsxwithin 0.8 if top rated on my scale if you want it to win .....if your happy to go for a place then you can extend this range.....makes perfect sense if you think about it .....if your form ratings are accurate ...then if your value bet is 3rd rated 1.0 behind top rated then it's going to struggle to beat top rated under normal conditions regardless of value....you really need a combination of the 2 to be fully effective

Edited by richard-westwood
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I'll start with today's race ......run a side by side comparison .....all horses within the top rated band if a profit can be made  .....with any value bets that are in the top rated band only   ....it might turn out that these types of bets are rare but when they do occur they are Rock solid bets especially ew ....I definately think specialising is the best way to use these bets given the evidence ......the top rated form bets if they make money might be good on their own right too we shall see 

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15 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1240 Lingfield rating what you think guys.... Violet lad 12.5 and British lion 15, delyll 14.5 plus look obvious picks...

Butterfield is bit too high with fact it's down in distance so much. Edit may give Butterfield a chance if it sticks at similar odds...

 

Screenshot_20210123-214229.png

Delyll wins but obviously with a bit of reduction in price from non runners. I had 14.5 after deduction as took larger price ( said 14.5 plus). Butterfield was weak

Edited by Wildgarden
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410 ling 

Power over me  8.6 5/1 15/8 no value 

Grey galleon  8.1 11/2  13/2 value 

Dazzling des  7.9 6/1 12/1 good value 

Most likelyvwinner is power over me ...cant make a profit backing all 3 but grey and dazzling are close enough to qualify as value bets ew so I'll go with that

Grey galleon 13/2 

Dazzling des 12/1 

Both ew 

Edited by richard-westwood
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14.10 I had 1 & 2 the wrong way round! Shows the ratings work to a point but rarely is the fav my no 1.

Also I struggle to get large differentials in my odds. That last race every horse was between 11/2 and 13/2! Need to find a factor or factors that move them further apart. Any ideas? 

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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

That's what I mean the top rated are winning a lot but sometimes are a shade outside the value but still win anyway

I have arrived at the same conclusion. My top rated are generating profits but most are at the top of the market and when I try to apply a value factor I find that it excludes a lot of the winning favourites and the occasional longer priced winners doesn't compensate for this.

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3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

410 ling 

Power over me  8.6 5/1 15/8 no value 

Grey galleon  8.1 11/2  13/2 value 

Dazzling des  7.9 6/1 12/1 good value 

Most likelyvwinner is power over me ...cant make a profit backing all 3 but grey and dazzling are close enough to qualify as value bets ew so I'll go with that

Grey galleon 13/2 

Dazzling des 12/1 

Both ew 

As expected ....power over me won ...grey galleon placed so the top 2 again provided winner and 3rd.....

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On 1/23/2021 at 11:41 AM, Villa Chris said:

3.00 Ascot 

Dashel Drasher 14, 13/2 (8/1)

Bennys King 13, 11/2, (9/1)

Espoir De Guys 12, 5/1 (10/1)

Domaine De L’Isle 12, 11/1 (10/1)

Jerry’s back 11, 15/2( 11/1)

Good Boy Bobby 10, 7/2 (12/1)

Windsor Avenue 10, 17/2(12/1)

Acting Lass 10, 14/1, (12/1)

 

Domaine , and Acting Lass are only two to give any kind of value, but even then the bookies have them about right .
 

Richard, or anyone else for that matter.  I got this race bang on with first two, and also the others behind were pretty close to how I rated it.  The rest of the races I rated didn’t really show up too much, so the question I’m asking is are my ratings working or not? I think not. The race in question I rated the same way as the others . 

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10 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Richard, or anyone else for that matter.  I got this race bang on with first two, and also the others behind were pretty close to how I rated it.  The rest of the races I rated didn’t really show up too much, so the question I’m asking is are my ratings working or not? I think not. The race in question I rated the same way as the others . 

Hard to say .....its a combination of what criteria your using .....your percentages youve allotted to each section and your gonna get losing races ...that's just racing .....the fact the above race ran well suggests something is working ok .....you could try playing with the percentages to see if that helps or makes things worse ....you might get lucky and fall on something 

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21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Hard to say .....its a combination of what criteria your using .....your percentages youve allotted to each section and your gonna get losing races ...that's just racing .....the fact the above race ran well suggests something is working ok .....you could try playing with the percentages to see if that helps or makes things worse ....you might get lucky and fall on something 

Mmmm... I’m not allocating a % to any section . My ratings are based on....

Distance 

Going 

Course 

Handicap mark 

Form 

I’m a bit confused regarding how the % will effect my overall rating. For example just say I go....

Distance 35%
Going 30%
Course 5%
Handicap mark 15%
Form 15%
 
How do those % give me a score? I’ve read your post on the first page but it confuses me 

Edited by Villa Chris
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8 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Mmmm... I’m not allocating a % to any section . My ratings are based on....

Distance 

Going 

Course 

Handicap mark 

Form 

I’m a bit confused regarding how the % will effect my overall rating. For example just say I go....

Distance 35%
Going 30%
Course 5%
Handicap mark 15%
Form 15%
 
How do those % give me a score? I’ve read your post on the first page but it confuses me 

So let's take your distance ....you could award 10pts for a distance win ....7pts for a distance place ...5pts for near miss .....2pts for no distance 

So let's say you scored 10 pts for a distance win......you have allocated 35 % ....move the decimal point 2 places left so that's 0.35 .....and multiply the 2 together .....10x 0.35 = 3.5 ....do that's your score for section 1 

Do the same for going .... you might award 10 pts for going win .....7pts fir going place .....maybe 4pts for no going win/place .....so let's say your horse has a going place and you award 7pts ....you allocated 30% ....move the decimal point 2 left so that's 0.30 x7pts = 2.1 pts 

Add that to the 3.5 from section 1 =5.6 

Etc for other sections 

So on average each horse will look like this 

Distance   10pts x35 = 3.5 

Going 30×7pts = 2.1 

Course  10pt x5 =0.5 pts 

Hcap  8pts x15 = 1.2 

Form  5pts  x 15= 0.75 

Add the scores up ....8.05 ....this in your form score 

 

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8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

So let's take your distance ....you could award 10pts for a distance win ....7pts for a distance place ...5pts for near miss .....2pts for no distance 

So let's say you scored 10 pts for a distance win......you have allocated 35 % ....move the decimal point 2 places left so that's 0.35 .....and multiply the 2 together .....10x 0.35 = 3.5 ....do that's your score for section 1 

Do the same for going .... you might award 10 pts for going win .....7pts fir going place .....maybe 4pts for no going win/place .....so let's say your horse has a going place and you award 7pts ....you allocated 30% ....move the decimal point 2 left so that's 0.30 x7pts = 2.1 pts 

Add that to the 3.5 from section 1 =5.6 

Etc for other sections 

So on average each horse will look like this 

Distance   10pts x35 = 3.5 

Going 30×7pts = 2.1 

Course  10pt x5 =0.5 pts 

Hcap  8pts x15 = 1.2 

Form  5pts  x 15= 0.75 

Add the scores up ....8.05 ....this in your form score 

 

Brilliant Richard, got it now. Thanks for replying.  

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6 hours ago, Pirate53 said:

Also I struggle to get large differentials in my odds. That last race every horse was between 11/2 and 13/2! Need to find a factor or factors that move them further apart. Any ideas? 

You get a wider range of odds if you multiply your ratings rather than add them together.

Alternatively you could square each factor.

 

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Had a go at Plum 14.50:

Echo Watt       8.2       My odds 5/1              11/4

Shanroe Santos  7.9    My odds 5.25/1         5/1

Young Turk     7.65     My odds 11/2            20/1

I See You Well   7.15   My odds 6/1             7/2

Young Turk the value bet, Echo probably wins.

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