richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 (edited) 17 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 1240 ling sunday Violets lad 8.1 13/2 8/1 value Narjes 7.2 15/2 5/1 no value Megale msjeure 6.7 9/1 7/2 no value Violets lad value bet ew 8/1 pp Having a small debate with myself this morning ......yesterday I noticed that all horses within 0.8 of top rated provided nearly all the winners .....the ratings as,a form tool alone are really good.....but the winners are not necessarily the value bets .....they are placing yes which corresponds to the value bet but the higher rated less value horses are winning ... .. ....in tge above race that would mean the winner most likely narjes or violet lad ....as you can get 9/2 or 8/1 on both is that such a bad bet or any less value if they win if theres only 3 or 4 horses highly rated ????...making money is the name of the game after all ..I'll keep an eye on how they perform side by side with the value bets Edited January 24, 2021 by richard-westwood vikki37, Wild20 and Pirate53 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 (edited) With 3 NR's since yesterday, the shape of the 1.10 has altered some. Genuine Approval 20.35 My odds 5/1 11/2 Some value Zayriyan 18.65 My odds 11/2 2/1 No value Lady Of York 18.25 My odds 6/1 15/2 Some value Socru 17.25 My odds 6/1 15/2 Some value Global Style 16.70 My odds 11/2 5/2 No value Blairlogie is 11/1 and I have 13/2 and looks a bet! Lol! Edited January 24, 2021 by Pirate53 Updated current price Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Having a small debate with myself this morning ......yesterday I noticed that all horses within 0.8 of top rated provided nearly all the winners .....the ratings as,a form tool alone are really good.....but the winners are not necessarily the value bets .....they are placing yes which corresponds to the value bet but the higher rated less value horses are winning ... .. ....in tge above race that would mean the winner most likely narjes or violet lad ....as you can get 9/2 or 8/1 on both is that such a bad bet or any less value if they win if theres only 3 or 4 horses highly rated ????...making money is the name of the game after all ..I'll keep an eye on how they perform side by side with the value bets My top rated are also the winners. The 10-1 yday was top rated as many others. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: My top rated are also the winners. The 10-1 yday was top rated as many others. That's what I mean the top rated are winning a lot but sometimes are a shade outside the value but still win anyway .....theres a lot of winners coming from top 2 or 3 .......I suppose what that's saying to me is the value bet shouldn't be backed unless itsxwithin 0.8 if top rated on my scale if you want it to win .....if your happy to go for a place then you can extend this range.....makes perfect sense if you think about it .....if your form ratings are accurate ...then if your value bet is 3rd rated 1.0 behind top rated then it's going to struggle to beat top rated under normal conditions regardless of value....you really need a combination of the 2 to be fully effective Edited January 24, 2021 by richard-westwood Pirate53, vikki37 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'll start with today's race ......run a side by side comparison .....all horses within the top rated band if a profit can be made .....with any value bets that are in the top rated band only ....it might turn out that these types of bets are rare but when they do occur they are Rock solid bets especially ew ....I definately think specialising is the best way to use these bets given the evidence ......the top rated form bets if they make money might be good on their own right too we shall see vikki37, Wild20, Wildgarden and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Violet non runner leaves Melgate and Narjes well clear on my ratings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yes .....no value Bet in top 2 but both melgate 3.2 ...and narjes 4.2 are clear on form so 1pt on each for the form trial Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, Pirate53 said: Violet non runner leaves Melgate and Narjes well clear on my ratings. I had them as badly rated for the price. We'll see how it goes. Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 (edited) 15 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 1240 Lingfield rating what you think guys.... Violet lad 12.5 and British lion 15, delyll 14.5 plus look obvious picks... Butterfield is bit too high with fact it's down in distance so much. Edit may give Butterfield a chance if it sticks at similar odds... Delyll wins but obviously with a bit of reduction in price from non runners. I had 14.5 after deduction as took larger price ( said 14.5 plus). Butterfield was weak Edited January 24, 2021 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Deleyll was my 3rd rated at 7/1, well behind top 2 but moved up due to NRs. Was a value bet so should have spotted that! Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 (edited) 410 ling Power over me 8.6 5/1 15/8 no value Grey galleon 8.1 11/2 13/2 value Dazzling des 7.9 6/1 12/1 good value Most likelyvwinner is power over me ...cant make a profit backing all 3 but grey and dazzling are close enough to qualify as value bets ew so I'll go with that Grey galleon 13/2 Dazzling des 12/1 Both ew Edited January 24, 2021 by richard-westwood Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 140 Lingfield furzig is pick 4.8 Betfair exchange 2nd to my seven who came back like a shot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14.10 I had 1 & 2 the wrong way round! Shows the ratings work to a point but rarely is the fav my no 1. Also I struggle to get large differentials in my odds. That last race every horse was between 11/2 and 13/2! Need to find a factor or factors that move them further apart. Any ideas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I use recent form ...last time and a form rating for 2nd section.. that normally provides a good spread to start before adding the other sections ....im getting spreads from 3/1 to 50/1 so the form sections really do a good job Wildgarden and Pirate53 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Quite happy with the 3 rated with new system - one win and wasn't far off with furzig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 hours ago, richard-westwood said: That's what I mean the top rated are winning a lot but sometimes are a shade outside the value but still win anyway I have arrived at the same conclusion. My top rated are generating profits but most are at the top of the market and when I try to apply a value factor I find that it excludes a lot of the winning favourites and the occasional longer priced winners doesn't compensate for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 410 ling Power over me 8.6 5/1 15/8 no value Grey galleon 8.1 11/2 13/2 value Dazzling des 7.9 6/1 12/1 good value Most likelyvwinner is power over me ...cant make a profit backing all 3 but grey and dazzling are close enough to qualify as value bets ew so I'll go with that Grey galleon 13/2 Dazzling des 12/1 Both ew As expected ....power over me won ...grey galleon placed so the top 2 again provided winner and 3rd..... vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 11:41 AM, Villa Chris said: 3.00 Ascot Dashel Drasher 14, 13/2 (8/1) Bennys King 13, 11/2, (9/1) Espoir De Guys 12, 5/1 (10/1) Domaine De L’Isle 12, 11/1 (10/1) Jerry’s back 11, 15/2( 11/1) Good Boy Bobby 10, 7/2 (12/1) Windsor Avenue 10, 17/2(12/1) Acting Lass 10, 14/1, (12/1) Domaine , and Acting Lass are only two to give any kind of value, but even then the bookies have them about right . Richard, or anyone else for that matter. I got this race bang on with first two, and also the others behind were pretty close to how I rated it. The rest of the races I rated didn’t really show up too much, so the question I’m asking is are my ratings working or not? I think not. The race in question I rated the same way as the others . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Richard, or anyone else for that matter. I got this race bang on with first two, and also the others behind were pretty close to how I rated it. The rest of the races I rated didn’t really show up too much, so the question I’m asking is are my ratings working or not? I think not. The race in question I rated the same way as the others . Hard to say .....its a combination of what criteria your using .....your percentages youve allotted to each section and your gonna get losing races ...that's just racing .....the fact the above race ran well suggests something is working ok .....you could try playing with the percentages to see if that helps or makes things worse ....you might get lucky and fall on something Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 (edited) 21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Hard to say .....its a combination of what criteria your using .....your percentages youve allotted to each section and your gonna get losing races ...that's just racing .....the fact the above race ran well suggests something is working ok .....you could try playing with the percentages to see if that helps or makes things worse ....you might get lucky and fall on something Mmmm... I’m not allocating a % to any section . My ratings are based on.... Distance Going Course Handicap mark Form I’m a bit confused regarding how the % will effect my overall rating. For example just say I go.... Distance 35% Going 30% Course 5% Handicap mark 15% Form 15% How do those % give me a score? I’ve read your post on the first page but it confuses me Edited January 24, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Mmmm... I’m not allocating a % to any section . My ratings are based on.... Distance Going Course Handicap mark Form I’m a bit confused regarding how the % will effect my overall rating. For example just say I go.... Distance 35% Going 30% Course 5% Handicap mark 15% Form 15% How do those % give me a score? I’ve read your post on the first page but it confuses me So let's take your distance ....you could award 10pts for a distance win ....7pts for a distance place ...5pts for near miss .....2pts for no distance So let's say you scored 10 pts for a distance win......you have allocated 35 % ....move the decimal point 2 places left so that's 0.35 .....and multiply the 2 together .....10x 0.35 = 3.5 ....do that's your score for section 1 Do the same for going .... you might award 10 pts for going win .....7pts fir going place .....maybe 4pts for no going win/place .....so let's say your horse has a going place and you award 7pts ....you allocated 30% ....move the decimal point 2 left so that's 0.30 x7pts = 2.1 pts Add that to the 3.5 from section 1 =5.6 Etc for other sections So on average each horse will look like this Distance 10pts x35 = 3.5 Going 30×7pts = 2.1 Course 10pt x5 =0.5 pts Hcap 8pts x15 = 1.2 Form 5pts x 15= 0.75 Add the scores up ....8.05 ....this in your form score Villa Chris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: So let's take your distance ....you could award 10pts for a distance win ....7pts for a distance place ...5pts for near miss .....2pts for no distance So let's say you scored 10 pts for a distance win......you have allocated 35 % ....move the decimal point 2 places left so that's 0.35 .....and multiply the 2 together .....10x 0.35 = 3.5 ....do that's your score for section 1 Do the same for going .... you might award 10 pts for going win .....7pts fir going place .....maybe 4pts for no going win/place .....so let's say your horse has a going place and you award 7pts ....you allocated 30% ....move the decimal point 2 left so that's 0.30 x7pts = 2.1 pts Add that to the 3.5 from section 1 =5.6 Etc for other sections So on average each horse will look like this Distance 10pts x35 = 3.5 Going 30×7pts = 2.1 Course 10pt x5 =0.5 pts Hcap 8pts x15 = 1.2 Form 5pts x 15= 0.75 Add the scores up ....8.05 ....this in your form score Brilliant Richard, got it now. Thanks for replying. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 hours ago, Pirate53 said: Also I struggle to get large differentials in my odds. That last race every horse was between 11/2 and 13/2! Need to find a factor or factors that move them further apart. Any ideas? You get a wider range of odds if you multiply your ratings rather than add them together. Alternatively you could square each factor. Pirate53 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 410 Chelmsford going with the two top rated in my acca currently 3.8 after looking at the others prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 420 plump Mr jack 8.6 13/2 7/1 value Darkest day 8.0 7/1 9/2 novalue Sawpit Siena 7.5 15/2 11/4 no value Top 2 are clear on ratings so I'll try 2pt win singles both ......mr jack qualifies as ew value bet of race Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Snowed off today , so will have a crack at plumpton, once I’ve got back from snowboarding with kids ? vikki37, Wild20 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) Looks like plumpton will be called off 3rd inspection shortly Edited January 25, 2021 by richard-westwood Wild20 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) Ignore Edited January 25, 2021 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate53 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Had a go at Plum 14.50: Echo Watt 8.2 My odds 5/1 11/4 Shanroe Santos 7.9 My odds 5.25/1 5/1 Young Turk 7.65 My odds 11/2 20/1 I See You Well 7.15 My odds 6/1 7/2 Young Turk the value bet, Echo probably wins. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 745 kemp Liva 7.5 11/2 5/1 novalue French mix 7.0 13/2 11/2 novalue Next horse 6.1 so top 2 are clear on form...2pt wins both Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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