Australian Open 2021

[CzechPunter]

 Early speculations ahoy!

[lelit]

Someone has to start this thread
I know this will be some initial speculation and we should wait for the results a few tournaments before the AO tournaments and and of course on AO seeding.

How do you rate the chances of winning Andreescu in AO? After all, she had quite a long break. I don't see much chance for Serena; perhaps the current lay out value bet. Barty and Osaka will be quite a favorite for sure. Karolina Pliskova with  Bajin ? Halep? Kenin? Where to place the mighty barbarian Swiatek? Her coach claims that she will be good at HC first in 2-3 years.

The prices on BF are so far ridiculously low; what odds would you consider to be realistic for the above players?

Edited December 28, 2020 by lelit

[CzechPunter]

I honestly think that it's pointless to bet at this point. I'd wait at least until everyone is in the AO bubble, since withdrawals can still easily happen. Match practice is big in tennis and players that haven't played for a year will struggle imo, I'd be shocked to see someone win with no match practice at all. With that, Andreescu would be in the second tier of favorites for me and that second tier would be quite large. Right now, I wouldn't even consider taking anything below 25.00.

[CzechPunter]

 

 

[owenclass]

Shame no Federer

[darko08]

https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-open-tennis-players-quarantine-coronavirus-cases-melbourne-flight/12e7a80d-39b5-4c10-ac81-9239dac5e6ae

 

 

[darko08]

https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-open-coronavirus-second-charter-flight-records-positive-covid19-case/365e6652-6816-4be5-9c9b-85e94f6f6d20

Guys,... we have a new one... 

[darko08]

The first one came from Los Angeles. This new one came from Abu Dhabi. 47 players under quarantine...

ANOTHER BREAKING NOTICE: Putintseva has found a rat in her room in Australia. ?

Edited January 16, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

It will go ahead I reckon. But some clouds hanging over the preparation events now.

[darko08]

After some research this is what i got:

2 positives from the Los Angeles flight:
- Edward Elliot (Lauren Davis’ coach) and a flight attendant
Positive from the Abu Dhabi flight:
- Sylvain Bruneau (Andreescu’s coach)

There are 47 players in quarantine
MEN:
Nishikori, Sandgren, Pospisil, Pella, Londero, Cuevas, Santiago Gonzalez, Sitak, Oswald, Daniell
WOMEN:
Azarenka, Stephens, Riske, Lauren Davis, Andreescu, Kerber, Cirstea, Kuznetsova, Bencic, Jabeur, Sakkari, Watson, Cornet, Kostyuk, Yastremska, Rybakina, Badosa, Putintseva, Podoroska
 
I still don’t know who are the others

[cluelessG]

Up to 5 flights affected:

https://opencourt.ca/2021/01/17/test-positive-possibly-five-flights-to-melbourne-covid/

Edited January 17, 2021 by cluelessG

[darko08]

@cluelessG the positive from the Dubai flight was a false alarm. 

3 positives from the Los Angeles flight (24 players):
- Edward Elliot (Lauren Davis’ coach), a flight attendant and a journalist (9news)
1 positive from the Abu Dhabi flight (23 players):
- Sylvain Bruneau (Andreescu’s coach)
1 positive from the Doha flight (25 players):
- Unknown (not a tennis player)

72 players in hard quarantine: 

MEN:
Nishikori, Sandgren, Pospisil, Pella, Londero, Cuevas, Santiago González, Marcus Demoliner, Artem Sitak, Nicholas Monroe, Philipp Oswald, Marcus Daniell, Marcelo Arévalo, Rajeev Ram, Rohan Bopanna, Alcaraz, Vilella, Stebe, Alexandre Muller, Federico Ferreira Silva, Karatsev, Stakhovsky, E.Ymer, Halys, Coppejans, Mmoh, Machác, Troicki, Safiullin, van de Zandschulp, Tomic, Laaksonen, Cressy, Dellien, Taro Daniel, Dzumhur, Ivashka, Paire

WOMEN:
Azarenka, Stephens, Riske, Lauren Davis, McHale, Mattek-Sands, Andreescu, Kerber, Cirstea, Kuznetsova, Bencic, Jabeur, Sakkari, Watson, Kostyuk, Kontaveit, Kudermetova, Yastremska, Rybakina, Badosa, Putintseva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Krejcikova, Strycova, Siniakova, Dabrowski.

I still don't know who are the other 8 players in hard quarantine, anyone knows¿?

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

@darko08 Cheers for that!

I can add Shapovalov to that list, though I haven't be able to find a full list.

[darko08]

On 1/19/2021 at 11:00 AM, CzechPunter said:

@darko08 Cheers for that!

I can add Shapovalov to that list, though I haven't be able to find a full list.

Shapovalov is not one of them. Take a look at his instagram, 5 hours ago he was practicing with Khachanov in the Margaret Court Arena

I added 5 more: Krejcikova, Strycova, Siniakova, Ram and Bopanna

Edited January 21, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Oh, so what was the article that I was reading? Damn, so confusing.

https://www.rfi.fr/en/sports/20210118-tennis-players-in-hotel-quarantine-show-innovate-indoor-training-for-australian-open-sport-melbourne

[darko08]

7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Oh, so what was the article that I was reading? Damn, so confusing.

https://www.rfi.fr/en/sports/20210118-tennis-players-in-hotel-quarantine-show-innovate-indoor-training-for-australian-open-sport-melbourne

Probably this was from a few days ago when even the players that were under a normal quarantine were not able to train outside their rooms. The players under a normal quarantine have started to practice on court in the last hours. Be careful about what sources you check because I have read some sites that are completely wrong about which players are in strict quarantine. 

[darko08]

A breaking notice. Finally, there are 2 positive cases involving tennis players (a 30 years old man and a 20 years woman, both from the Abu Dhabi flight). These still could be false positives, so let's see...

Kostyuk is suffering anxiety attacks (she's one of the players under strict quarantine).

Putintseva has found a new rat in her new room. Could it be the same rat she found in her first room? Is that rat chasing her? Who knows... 

Edited January 20, 2021 by darko08

[bet4fun]

On 12/28/2020 at 6:20 PM, lelit said:

Someone has to start this thread
I know this will be some initial speculation and we should wait for the results a few tournaments before the AO tournaments and and of course on AO seeding.

How do you rate the chances of winning Andreescu in AO? After all, she had quite a long break. I don't see much chance for Serena; perhaps the current lay out value bet. Barty and Osaka will be quite a favorite for sure. Karolina Pliskova with  Bajin ? Halep? Kenin? Where to place the mighty barbarian Swiatek? Her coach claims that she will be good at HC first in 2-3 years.

The prices on BF are so far ridiculously low; what odds would you consider to be realistic for the above players?

think you called the whole house. surely not everyone is going to win the australian open. barty is hot favorite to win. andreescu needs form. she hasn't holded a racket in past 18 months or so. halep cannot play when her opponent is super quick. what we saw in the french open. she got cleaned up by swiatek.

 

Iga vs barty final will be what I look forward to

[bet4fun]

On 1/17/2021 at 2:34 AM, darko08 said:

The first one came from Los Angeles. This new one came from Abu Dhabi. 47 players under quarantine...

ANOTHER BREAKING NOTICE: Putintseva has found a rat in her room in Australia. ?

I think this is the breaking news out of the whole mess

[DrO]

[darko08]

Badosa has confirmed that she's one of the players who tested positive for Covid, she's feeling unwell and has symptoms. 

[darko08]

On 1/19/2021 at 8:05 AM, darko08 said:

@cluelessG the positive from the Dubai flight was a false alarm. 

3 positives from the Los Angeles flight (24 players):
- Edward Elliot (Lauren Davis’ coach), a flight attendant and a journalist (9news)
1 positive from the Abu Dhabi flight (23 players):
- Sylvain Bruneau (Andreescu’s coach)
1 positive from the Doha flight (25 players):
- Unknown (not a tennis player)

72 players in hard quarantine: 

MEN:
Nishikori, Sandgren, Pospisil, Pella, Londero, Cuevas, Santiago González, Marcus Demoliner, Artem Sitak, Nicholas Monroe, Philipp Oswald, Marcus Daniell, Marcelo Arévalo, Rajeev Ram, Rohan Bopanna, Alcaraz, Vilella, Stebe, Alexandre Muller, Federico Ferreira Silva, Karatsev, Stakhovsky, E.Ymer, Halys, Coppejans, Mmoh, Machác, Troicki, Safiullin, van de Zandschulp, Tomic, Laaksonen, Cressy, Dellien, Taro Daniel, Dzumhur, Ivashka, Paire

WOMEN:
Azarenka, Stephens, Riske, Lauren Davis, McHale, Mattek-Sands, Andreescu, Kerber, Cirstea, Kuznetsova, Bencic, Jabeur, Sakkari, Watson, Kostyuk, Kontaveit, Kudermetova, Yastremska, Rybakina, Badosa, Putintseva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Krejcikova, Strycova, Siniakova, Dabrowski.

I still don't know who are the other 8 players in hard quarantine, anyone knows¿?

 

I was wrong about Potapova and I have added Dabrowski to the list. I stopped my research about which players are, I hope we will know in the next days. Some of these players are showing signs of despair. Paire said he is fatigued and just want to go home... Kostyuk said she was having anxiety attacks... and they still have another whole week. I suggest you to take note of these players for the next ATP/WTA events because it's pretty obvious this is affecting them. So, as I said before, if anyone knows the other players please tell.

[CzechPunter]

Will they have a week of practice available then @darko08? I suppose that they will be able to practice for one week before the start, though I can see them not being able to play in the few pre-AO events. Is my understanding right or has anyone found something else somewhere?

[darko08]

@CzechPunter 

WTA 500 Gippsland Trophy 31 January - 6 February

WTA 500 Yarra Valley Classic 31 January - 6 February 

ATP 250 Great Ocean Road Open 1 - 7 February

ATP 250 River Murray Open 1 - 7 February

ATP CUP 2 - 6 February

WTA 500 Grampians Trophy 3 - 7 February

AUSTRALIA OPEN 8 - 21 February

WTA 250 Philip Island Trophy 13 - 19 February

WTA 500 Adelaide International 22 - 27 February

 

As you can see, finally a third WTA 500 event has been added. The Grampians Trophy (3 - 7 February) will be for those players who have been in strict quarantine. 

Looks like we will have some intense days here from 31 January till the end of the AO ?

Edited January 25, 2021 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

That's almost like another small Grand Slam haha!

[CzechPunter]

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/tennis/player-anger-at-delayed-quarantine-release-20210128-p56xj7.html

[CzechPunter]

https://ausopen.com/draws

[darko08]

Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 2.87 with bet365

Barty will face Kovinic in the 1st round, Sorribes/Gavrilova in the 2nd round, S.Zheng/Krejcikova/Trevisan/Alexandrova in the 3rd round, Kontaveit/Sasnovich/Kr.Pliskova/Watson/F.Jones/Rogers/Danilovic/Martic in the 4th round and Bencic/Davis/Kuznetsova/Strycova/Zhu/Osuigwe/Leylah/Mertens/Muchova/Ostapenko/Barthel/Cocciaretto/Collins/Bogdan/Paolini/Ka.Pliskova in the QFs. IMO I don't see too many players there who can beat her and she has a big advantage: she can win most of the players  without even playing good... Alexandrova in the 3rd round could trouble her a little bit but I can't imagine her winning the match. Then Kontaveit, Rogers and Martic in the 4th round. I watched her against Rogers and despite dropping a set against her the sensation of superiority was clear. Martic is far from her best form and Kontaveit hasn't showed her best tennis recently either so I don't see them as big threats for Barty. In the QFs the player I fear the most is Mertens. I don't expect too much from Karolina Pliskova, and Bencic's form is really poor as well. Collins is a player to be considered but, as I said, I think Barty has been lucky with the draw and I expect her to win this quarter.

Danielle Collins (vs Bogdan) + Iga Swiatek (vs Rus) at 1.61 with 888

Bogdan ended 2020 with a negative record (7-8). She has played a couple of matches here, winning against Rakhimova and losing against Barty, both in straight sets. As I said before, Collins has played her best tennis ever here in Australia and she has done well recently, winning against Bonaventure, Stojanovic and Karolina Pliskova. She finally lost against Serena but she took a set from her (2-6, 6-4, 6-10). 
Rus' record in Australia is pretty bad and she hasn't done well recently.
She lost her last match played here against Venus (6-1, 6-3) and she also lost in the 1s round in Abu Dhabi against Xiyu Wang. Swiatek has played a couple of matches here. She won against her best friend Kaja Juvan in the 1st round but then lost in 2 sets against Alexandrova. The current RG champion did well here the last year. She won against Babos, Carla Suárez Navarro and Vekic, all of them in straight sets, and finally lost against Kontaveit in a tight match.

Victoria Azarenka (vs Pegula) + Nadia Podoroska (vs McHale) at 1.82 with 888

Azarenka has withdrawn from her QFs match against Kontaveit. She said she had a lower back problem but it's pretty obvious she had nothing and she did to be fit for the AO. Osaka also has withdrawn from her match against Mertens... They just don't want to risk the AO. Pegula's record on hard courts is impressive, but the 99% of her victories are on american soil. The only time she has played the AO 
was in 2020 and she lost in 2 sets against Towsend while Azarenka has won the whole tournament 2 times... Pegula has won here against Mladenovic and Barthel, and she has lost against Kenin in a 3 set match. In Abu Dhabi she lost in the 1st round against Svitolina, in straight sets. Azarenka has won her only match here against Putintseva. Despite being Pegula a good hard court player it would shock me a lot to see Azarenka losing this match considering how good she has been playing, especially in the USO. McHale was one of the players who was under a strict quarantine. She has  lost in her only match played here against Kontaveit (1-6, 3-6) and that's the only one she has played since RG. As I said before, Podoroska is in her best moment right now. She has won here against Jones, Minnen and Kvitova. She finally lost against Vondrousova despite taking the 1st set.

Sorana Cirstea to beat Patricia Maria Tig at 1.52 with 888

Cirstea is in a good form. She comes from winning an ITF tournament in Dubai, where she beat Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. She has won against Kalashnikova and Bencic, both in 2 sets, and she's still to play against Ann Li in so she's currently in a 7 winning streak. Tig has lost the only match she has played here against Babos (6-7, 3-6). Cirstea is in a good form and feels so much better than Tig on hard courts so I expect her to win this match.

Barbora Krejcikova to beat Saisai Zheng at 1.53 with 888

I haven't seen Saisai for a while... looks like she has been a little bit inactive due to the pandemic. She has played 1 match here, against Begu (6-3, 5-7, 4-6) and then she has no matches played since February 2020. In the other side, Krejcikova looks great. As I said before, the former world number 1 on doubles had a great 2020 on singles, and looks like that good form is still going on in 2021 cause she has won here against Davis and Rybakina and she’s still to play against Brady.

Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova to beat Naomi Osaka at 5.00 with bet365

Osaka has been really unlucky. As I said before, Pavlyuchenkova always has played really well here. The last year here she lost against Gauff in the 3rd round while Pavlyuchenkova reached the QFs, where she lost against Muguruza in a tight match. Before that she beat Kerber and Karolina Pliskova. Osaka is the big favorite but it deserves a try at these odds.

I know some tournaments still on but i'm out for the weekend. GL.

[CzechPunter]

Alright, it's the first Grand Slam of the season and it should be a good one!

Ashley Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365

Following @darko08 on this one, especially since it's now drifted out to 3.00. Same reasoning.

Naomi Osaka to win the 3rd quarter at 3.10 with Bet365

The second and fourth quarter look messy to me, but I'll stick with the favorites in the first and third one. Osaka has looked good so far in this season and has the right mentality as well. The rest of the field looks undercooked, so there's not as much danger as she would've faced in other quarters.

Matteo Berrettini to go further than Stan Wawrinka at 2.50 with Bet365

Although Berrettini did lose against Medvedev, he's had some seriously good efforts recently and his draw doesn't look impossible. Stan, on the other hand, hasn't played much and he hasn't played at all against top opposition. One has to wonder a bit about his fitness levels as well, so I'm more than happy to take the top 10 player over the aging former top 10 player here.

Viktoria Azarenka to go further than Bianca Andreescu at 2.00 with Bet365

Bianca hasn't played a match for more than a year, yet she's favored to go pretty far here. I get that she's strong and talented, but come on. There's a reason why everyone was itching to play the preparatory tournaments, you do need match practice in the world of tennis unless you are Federer. She has a tricky draw as well and I wouldn't be that shocked to see her fall in the early rounds. Buzarnescu can be tricky to navigate and then she'll have Hsieh or Pironkova, both quite tricky in different respects.

Alex Bolt to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.91 with William Hill

Bolt had a good run in the preparatory tournaments and he's always played well above his usual level in home conditions. He gives it his all in Melbourne year in year out. Gombos has only played one match this year, losing tamely against Purcell, so what exactly makes him the fav here is beyond me. He is the superior player overall, but the situational factors speak against him a lot.

Yoshihito Nishioka (-1.5 sets) to beat Pedro Martinez at 1.96 with Unibet

Nishioka did have a tough time in the ATP Cup, but he was playing decently by my standard's. He could've easily grabbed a set of Pella and Martinez will be a solid step down in terms of quality. Nishioka has all the right weapons to just outplay Martinez and I think that he'll be ready for this challenge. He looked really ambitious against Pella, wanted to win but things didn't go his way. Martinez should be an easier task.

Good luck to everyone guys!

[bet4fun]

On 2/6/2021 at 8:15 AM, darko08 said:

Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 2.87 with bet365

Barty will face Kovinic in the 1st round, Sorribes/Gavrilova in the 2nd round, S.Zheng/Krejcikova/Trevisan/Alexandrova in the 3rd round, Kontaveit/Sasnovich/Kr.Pliskova/Watson/F.Jones/Rogers/Danilovic/Martic in the 4th round and Bencic/Davis/Kuznetsova/Strycova/Zhu/Osuigwe/Leylah/Mertens/Muchova/Ostapenko/Barthel/Cocciaretto/Collins/Bogdan/Paolini/Ka.Pliskova in the QFs. IMO I don't see too many players there who can beat her and she has a big advantage: she can win most of the players  without even playing good... Alexandrova in the 3rd round could trouble her a little bit but I can't imagine her winning the match. Then Kontaveit, Rogers and Martic in the 4th round. I watched her against Rogers and despite dropping a set against her the sensation of superiority was clear. Martic is far from her best form and Kontaveit hasn't showed her best tennis recently either so I don't see them as big threats for Barty. In the QFs the player I fear the most is Mertens. I don't expect too much from Karolina Pliskova, and Bencic's form is really poor as well. Collins is a player to be considered but, as I said, I think Barty has been lucky with the draw and I expect her to win this quarter.

Danielle Collins (vs Bogdan) + Iga Swiatek (vs Rus) at 1.61 with 888

Bogdan ended 2020 with a negative record (7-8). She has played a couple of matches here, winning against Rakhimova and losing against Barty, both in straight sets. As I said before, Collins has played her best tennis ever here in Australia and she has done well recently, winning against Bonaventure, Stojanovic and Karolina Pliskova. She finally lost against Serena but she took a set from her (2-6, 6-4, 6-10). 
Rus' record in Australia is pretty bad and she hasn't done well recently.
She lost her last match played here against Venus (6-1, 6-3) and she also lost in the 1s round in Abu Dhabi against Xiyu Wang. Swiatek has played a couple of matches here. She won against her best friend Kaja Juvan in the 1st round but then lost in 2 sets against Alexandrova. The current RG champion did well here the last year. She won against Babos, Carla Suárez Navarro and Vekic, all of them in straight sets, and finally lost against Kontaveit in a tight match.

Victoria Azarenka (vs Pegula) + Nadia Podoroska (vs McHale) at 1.82 with 888

Azarenka has withdrawn from her QFs match against Kontaveit. She said she had a lower back problem but it's pretty obvious she had nothing and she did to be fit for the AO. Osaka also has withdrawn from her match against Mertens... They just don't want to risk the AO. Pegula's record on hard courts is impressive, but the 99% of her victories are on american soil. The only time she has played the AO 
was in 2020 and she lost in 2 sets against Towsend while Azarenka has won the whole tournament 2 times... Pegula has won here against Mladenovic and Barthel, and she has lost against Kenin in a 3 set match. In Abu Dhabi she lost in the 1st round against Svitolina, in straight sets. Azarenka has won her only match here against Putintseva. Despite being Pegula a good hard court player it would shock me a lot to see Azarenka losing this match considering how good she has been playing, especially in the USO. McHale was one of the players who was under a strict quarantine. She has  lost in her only match played here against Kontaveit (1-6, 3-6) and that's the only one she has played since RG. As I said before, Podoroska is in her best moment right now. She has won here against Jones, Minnen and Kvitova. She finally lost against Vondrousova despite taking the 1st set.

Sorana Cirstea to beat Patricia Maria Tig at 1.52 with 888

Cirstea is in a good form. She comes from winning an ITF tournament in Dubai, where she beat Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. She has won against Kalashnikova and Bencic, both in 2 sets, and she's still to play against Ann Li in so she's currently in a 7 winning streak. Tig has lost the only match she has played here against Babos (6-7, 3-6). Cirstea is in a good form and feels so much better than Tig on hard courts so I expect her to win this match.

Barbora Krejcikova to beat Saisai Zheng at 1.53 with 888

I haven't seen Saisai for a while... looks like she has been a little bit inactive due to the pandemic. She has played 1 match here, against Begu (6-3, 5-7, 4-6) and then she has no matches played since February 2020. In the other side, Krejcikova looks great. As I said before, the former world number 1 on doubles had a great 2020 on singles, and looks like that good form is still going on in 2021 cause she has won here against Davis and Rybakina and she’s still to play against Brady.

Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova to beat Naomi Osaka at 5.00 with bet365

Osaka has been really unlucky. As I said before, Pavlyuchenkova always has played really well here. The last year here she lost against Gauff in the 3rd round while Pavlyuchenkova reached the QFs, where she lost against Muguruza in a tight match. Before that she beat Kerber and Karolina Pliskova. Osaka is the big favorite but it deserves a try at these odds.

I know some tournaments still on but i'm out for the weekend. GL.

Payluchenkova match is a steal if she delivers tomorrow. I think lizette cabrera is also well capable of beating halep who has to raise her game or she will be crushed in 2nd or 3rd round