Australian Open 2021

[lelit]

Can not find any "specials" from bet365 on AO women. Their traders have removed this topic.

[CzechPunter]

I can see them just fine @lelit.

[lelit]

Viktoria Azarenka to go further than Bianca Andreescu at 2.00 with Bet365

Where to find that bet? Or those kind of bets?

I am sorry for disturbing you in planning your rich future

[darko08]

10 minutes ago, lelit said:

Viktoria Azarenka to go further than Bianca Andreescu at 2.00 with Bet365

Where to find that bet? Or those kind of bets?

I am sorry for disturbing you in planning your rich future

Hi @lelit When you go the tennis section you will see at the top: Matches, and next to that, Specials. Then you will see that kind of bets. 

[ElPrincipito007]

I start the AO Open with 2 underdogs who are priced to high in my opinion:

Mager @3,25 (Bwin)

Monfils @2,4 (Betfirst)

Don't know why Mager is priced so high. Monfils comes back from injury and if his fitness is okay, he is more than able to beat Ruusoveri.

[lelit]

@darko08

I can see "specials" only at man department, no specials at women AO. Tried to ask bet365 and the answer was: "it's traders decision".

[darko08]

@CzechPunter Osaka's route to the Final is a nightmare. Pavlyuchenkova in the 1st round, García/Hercog in the 2nd round, Jabeur in the 3th round, Muguruza/Kerber in the 4th round, Kvitova/Vondrousova/Andreescu in QFs, Serena/Sabalenka/Swiatek/Rybakina/Halep in SFs and Barty/Mertens/Pliskova/Kenin/Brady/Azarenka/Sakkari in the Final. Osaka playing at her best is the better player of the circuit but with that draw she can't have a bad match... I think her 4th round opponents are more dangerous than her QFs opponents, depending of what version of Andreescu we will see, which is impossible to know right now.

@lelit In my case they're still available. ?

[lelit]

@darko08

I found out of this problem; I have to push "winners" to find different special bets possibilities. I apologize to forum analysts for breaking the silence

[WinningTipster]

 

Hi Guys

3 Australian Open picks for me

ATP: SCHWARTZMAN-YMER 3:0 sets @ 1.56 pinnacle / willhill
Schwartzman would probably win easily in 3 sets. He is in a good recent form and is just too consistent for Ymer. Will force Ymer to make too many unforced errors.

WTA: MUGURUZA-6.5 GAMES OVER GASPARYAN @ 1.66 unibet / boylesports
Great form for Muguruza last week winning all of her matches easily and in good style.

WTA: GIORGI-SHVEDOVA 2:0 sets @ 1.42 pinnacle 
Shvedova is coming back to the WTA after 3 years absence at the age of 33, and even before the break Giorgi was a better player.
 

Edited February 7, 2021 by WinningTipster

[CzechPunter]

@darko08 Fortunately, I only need her to get to the SFs. From the list, I'm mainly worried about Muguruza. Kerber has been very suspect for the last two years and I'm happy to oppose Andreescu at the moment. Federer might've been able to come back after a long hiatus to win the Aussie Open, but Andreescu hasn't played a match since the end of 2019 and I don't see her getting far to be honest. I wouldn't be too shocked to see her lose against Buzarnescu or Pironkova honestly.

[Torque]

There's only one dog I like from this card, and it's - every chance I'll regret this - Benoit Paire. I just can't have him at the price he is against Gerasimov. He's entirely capable of beating himself, but Gerasimov is no world-beater so I'm taking a chance that Paire is motivated and gives a good account of himself. If he plays to the standard he can play and doesn't implode then I'd make him the favourite here.

10pts Paire to beat Gerasimov @ 6.50 Boylesports

[Torque]

Actually, I'll also have a small stake on Buzarnescu. Like @CzechPuntersaid, Andreescu hasn't played in a long time so it's impossible to know what kind of shape she's in. You'd have thought she'd have played a warm-up but she didn't, so maybe she's still not completely fit.

5pts Buzarnescu to beat Andreescu @ 4.50 Boylesports

Edited February 8, 2021 by Torque

[Torque]

18 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yoshihito Nishioka (-1.5 sets) to beat Pedro Martinez at 1.96 with Unibet

Nishioka did have a tough time in the ATP Cup, but he was playing decently by my standard's. He could've easily grabbed a set of Pella and Martinez will be a solid step down in terms of quality. Nishioka has all the right weapons to just outplay Martinez and I think that he'll be ready for this challenge. He looked really ambitious against Pella, wanted to win but things didn't go his way. Martinez should be an easier task.

Good luck to everyone guys!

I got involved in this - albeit the straight match line - and it has to be one of the worst serving performances I've ever seen from such a strong favourite. I know Nishioka doesn't have the biggest serve and that's been evidenced in this match with similar numbers for first serve and second serve points won, but even so to face more than twenty break points and lose serve so often is really poor. The score says he won a set, but he really shouldn't have even won that having been a double-break down. Having somehow won that first set, he held serve only once in each of the next three sets for a 7-6, 1-6, 1-6, 1-6 evisceration. 

[four-leaf]

Anna Blinkova is going strong after losing first set to Varvara Gracheva. She's taken second set by 6-3 so it's exciting to see if she can win third set.

Anna Blinkova to win at 2.10 with Betfair 

[CzechPunter]

1-1 for the first day, shocking from Nishioka. I'll have a total of three for now.

Matteo Berrettini (-1.5 sets) to beat Kevin Anderson at 1.95 with Unibet

I've already said enough about Berrettini in the last couple of days and I'm happy to take another risk here. Anderson hasn't convinced me for quite some time now.

Petra Martic (-3.5) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Minnen managed to cover this handicap against Danilovic last time out and Martic is way better. She lost a close match against Rogers, but that's fine, especially since I reckon it's the Grand Slam she's more after these days. For me, Danilovic is still on the lower WTA level and she's had plenty of bad performances in recent times, even against players well below Martic's level. She did qualify and that was a big success, but she's unproven on the big stage.

Guido Pella (+2.5 sets) to beat Borna Coric at 1.95 with Unibet

Coric deserves to be the favourite here, there can be no doubts about that. However, I saw Pella twice in the ATP Cup and I was happy with his performances. I don't really expect him to win this, but I do expect him to grab a set at least. Coric can blow hot and cold and it's rare to see three straight good sets from him.

[vvararu]

Taro Daniel is my disappointment for today so far 

 

If he loses, than all 4 Japanese guys are out from the first round this AO.

[darko08]

Sorana Cirstea (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.00 with William Hill

I repeat with Cirstea. Cirstea has won against Tig (6-1, 6-2) while Kvitova has won against Minnen (6-3, 6-4). Kvitova hasn't showed her best tennis here. She had a hard battle against Venus (7-6, 7-5) and lost against Podoroska (7-5, 1-6, 6-7) in her preparation matches here. As I said before, Cirstea came here in a good form. She won an ITF tournament in Dubai, beating Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. In her preparation matches she beat Bencic and lost against Ann Li, both in straight sets. Kvitova looks quite vulnerable and Cirstea is in a good form and she usually shows her best tennis when she faces big players. 

Bernarda Pera to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.61 with bet365

This is entirely based on how Pera has played against Kerber (6-0, 6-4). Probably she has played the best match of her career... She cleaned every single line of the court, hitting really hard the ball and giving no opportunities to Kerber. In the 2nd set Pera started to play a little bit conservative and that's when Kerber started to win games but finally Pera returned to her initial version and closed the match without problems. IMO, if Pera shows a similar version than today she should win the match, easily. The last time they played was in the US Open 2020 and Pera won 7-6, 6-0.

[liquidglass]

19 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said:

I start the AO Open with 2 underdogs who are priced to high in my opinion:

Mager @3,25 (Bwin)

Monfils @2,4 (Betfirst)

Don't know why Mager is priced so high. Monfils comes back from injury and if his fitness is okay, he is more than able to beat Ruusoveri.

I will share this with you from experience which relates to a practice that i religiously carry out before every tournament and especially in relation to Grand slams. I emphasize, especially Grand slams. It is also applicable to every sport and 8 times out of 10 will send you in the right direction especially in the early rounds of tournaments. First rule, do not ever ask why a certain price is high or low and then resort to reason it out ordinarily bounded by head knowledge. You will always be misled 9 times out of 10. I have said this so many times, that the odds always determine the outcome of any match or event. You just need to be able to train your spirit man or inner self to be able to understand and translate these odd movements to put to positive use.

I have been studying the science of odds movements for over 20 years now and still studying. The results are amazing and thought-provoking. There are two characteristics that constantly and positively influences all markets in relation to betting namely, market moves and market forces. Market moves are the deliberate involuntary movements of odds in whatever direction that precisely indicate who the winner will be depending one one's ability to translate the particular movement. Market force is the resultant influence of the movement of odds on the general outcome. That is to say that the market force always has the power to control the outcome of any game taking into account before hand all possible permutations and external factors like rain, defaults, injury, covid, you name it. When you come to understand the influence and dynamics of odds on the market, it almost makes you believe that the result of any given game is settled even before a racket touches a ball. I use "almost" because I do not want to be the one to unveil what has been a hidden fact for years and turn to be the subject of intense questioning. There is so much to write about on this topic with so little time to do it. Most people who have been involved in gambling for at least 5 years will attest to the fact that certain things have happened to them in way of betting outcomes that they have found very hard to explain. Some include How some bets have suddenly been lost from impregnable winning positions defying all plausible explanation. Why the last leg of a parlay is always a loser 9 times out of 10. What odds and cashouts were made to accomplish, why when you change your mind, it is to lose, Why when you take the cashout early the selection goes on to win and lose most times you leave the cashout. Why everyone focuses on the same games even from a list of over 100 match entries. The list goes on.

Here is what i am going to share with you and trust me, it will constantly help you as long as you remember to use it. Before any tournament especially grand slams, take a screen shot of the odds the first time they come out from whatever website you use. On the desktop you can just right click on the long list and save it. Next day repeat the same thing maybe at the same time or just a bit earlier. Repeat again next day. Save individually. Study very closely the movement of odds in relation to the various matches over that time frame and especially a few hours before the start of play. Some will not move. Focus on the ones that move and closely monitor. You will come to realize over time that the odds actually have a final say over the results most times, again I emphasize, depending on how you have trained your spirit man to bookmark these various changes on the charts.

Once you have successfully been able to train yourself for some time to understand these sequences at least over time, you will then in most cases be able to use your bookmarking ability to good effect and get better as the months and years go on. In other words you will eventually be able to mentally make up your own odds in your head which would automatically tally with the bookmakers odds even before you see the market. You always know something is wrong when the bookmaker's odds is far from what is the product of your mental precision. That really becomes your first point of diagnosis. You then proceed to check your charts going days back, then check current form, and a few other external factors for further confirmation.  Remember the movement of odds and the consequent indication of market forces are much much more important than the subject of the activity. Good luck!

[Bettingboots]

Does anyone know which firm or firms are the quickest for marking up prices ?  I've got my eye on one of the 2nd round matches but its not been priced up yet by any of those listed on Oddschecker. I'd like to take advantage of any value price that might appear before it gets smashed in.

[ElPrincipito007]

oddsportal is quite fast

[Bettingboots]

Turns out Skybet were the quickest to price it up. Was expecting it might be bet365.

Thats excluding the exchanges of course. Befair had price up before any of them, but not too much liquidity so I couldn't judge the relative value of the price.

[j6u1uv4n4]

1 hour ago, liquidglass said:

I will share this with you from experience which relates to a practice that i religiously carry out before every tournament and especially in relation to Grand slams. I emphasize, especially Grand slams. It is also applicable to every sport and 8 times out of 10 will send you in the right direction especially in the early rounds of tournaments. First rule, do not ever ask why a certain price is high or low and then resort to reason it out ordinarily bounded by head knowledge. You will always be misled 9 times out of 10. I have said this so many times, that the odds always determine the outcome of any match or event. You just need to be able to train your spirit man or inner self to be able to understand and translate these odd movements to put to positive use.

I have been studying the science of odds movements for over 20 years now and still studying. The results are amazing and thought-provoking. There are two characteristics that constantly and positively influences all markets in relation to betting namely, market moves and market forces. Market moves are the deliberate involuntary movements of odds in whatever direction that precisely indicate who the winner will be depending one one's ability to translate the particular movement. Market force is the resultant influence of the movement of odds on the general outcome. That is to say that the market force always has the power to control the outcome of any game taking into account before hand all possible permutations and external factors like rain, defaults, injury, covid, you name it. When you come to understand the influence and dynamics of odds on the market, it almost makes you believe that the result of any given game is settled even before a racket touches a ball. I use "almost" because I do not want to be the one to unveil what has been a hidden fact for years and turn to be the subject of intense questioning. There is so much to write about on this topic with so little time to do it. Most people who have been involved in gambling for at least 5 years will attest to the fact that certain things have happened to them in way of betting outcomes that they have found very hard to explain. Some include How some bets have suddenly been lost from impregnable winning positions defying all plausible explanation. Why the last leg of a parlay is always a loser 9 times out of 10. What odds and cashouts were made to accomplish, why when you change your mind, it is to lose, Why when you take the cashout early the selection goes on to win and lose most times you leave the cashout. Why everyone focuses on the same games even from a list of over 100 match entries. The list goes on.

Here is what i am going to share with you and trust me, it will constantly help you as long as you remember to use it. Before any tournament especially grand slams, take a screen shot of the odds the first time they come out from whatever website you use. On the desktop you can just right click on the long list and save it. Next day repeat the same thing maybe at the same time or just a bit earlier. Repeat again next day. Save individually. Study very closely the movement of odds in relation to the various matches over that time frame and especially a few hours before the start of play. Some will not move. Focus on the ones that move and closely monitor. You will come to realize over time that the odds actually have a final say over the results most times, again I emphasize, depending on how you have trained your spirit man to bookmark these various changes on the charts.

Once you have successfully been able to train yourself for some time to understand these sequences at least over time, you will then in most cases be able to use your bookmarking ability to good effect and get better as the months and years go on. In other words you will eventually be able to mentally make up your own odds in your head which would automatically tally with the bookmakers odds even before you see the market. You always know something is wrong when the bookmaker's odds is far from what is the product of your mental precision. That really becomes your first point of diagnosis. You then proceed to check your charts going days back, then check current form, and a few other external factors for further confirmation.  Remember the movement of odds and the consequent indication of market forces are much much more important than the subject of the activity. Good luck!

 

 

Hey, great post!  Any chance that you are aware of any websites where we could get data for historical odds movements in bookmarkers for tennis offer?

[vladisimo2]

I'll go with popyrin taking a set against goffin (1,52 odds) - David for me has been very unimpressive in Australia this year , while the youngster seemed to be in fine form and will have the backing of the crowd.

Rafa beating djere 3-0 (1,25 odds)- If Rafa came to play it means he is atleast in decent physical form therefore he should easily defeat djere.

Last one is Kwon taking a set off kokkinakis. I just think he's the more inform player and even if Thanasi finds a way to win because of the home crowd advantage , I don't see Kwon going down without a fight.

Edited February 8, 2021 by vladisimo2

[vvararu]

Hey guys. Looking for a banker for a big buck.

Thinking about:

Goffin to beat Popyrin @1.32 unibet. He did not shine in the last games but there is still quality difference between them.

Lopez to beat Tu Li @1.33 unibet. The same reasoning as above. The veteran should be good on hard, having a good serve. Tu Li had a good wins series but all of them were against another class of players.

Bencic to beat Davis @1.38 unibet. Better player with better results on hard court in 2020.

Mertens to beat Fernandes @1.25 unibet. Better player with very good results lately.

 

Not value bets but would appreciate any hint that would help to choose 1-2 of the above.

[CzechPunter]

I'd take Tu Li out, I think he has a shot if he gets it to 4 or 5 sets.

[darko08]

1 hour ago, vvararu said:

Hey guys. Looking for a banker for a big buck.

Thinking about:

Goffin to beat Popyrin @1.32 unibet. He did not shine in the last games but there is still quality difference between them.

Lopez to beat Tu Li @1.33 unibet. The same reasoning as above. The veteran should be good on hard, having a good serve. Tu Li had a good wins series but all of them were against another class of players.

Bencic to beat Davis @1.38 unibet. Better player with better results on hard court in 2020.

Mertens to beat Fernandes @1.25 unibet. Better player with very good results lately.

 

Not value bets but would appreciate any hint that would help to choose 1-2 of the above.

Wow. I don't want to be disrespectful but the players you have chose are not trustable at all... 
Goffin is in a bad form and he lost his only match played here against Alcaraz in 2 sets while Popyrin has won some matches, at least. He plays home and he won against Tsonga and Munar the last year here.
Lopez is almost 40 years old and he needs to serve really well to be competitive. He lost in 2 sets against Anderson in his only match played here. I haven't seen Li Tu playing but his story is inspiring and I have seen that he has won some decent players (Polmans, Klein,...) playing the UTR Pro Championship. 
Bencic's form is absolutely awful. She has lost in her only match here against Cirstea in 2 sets. Before that she lost against Kovinic in 2 sets in Rome. Davis is not at her best either but she has won a set against Krejcikova and her game style suits here so I don't expect an easy match for Bencic. Add to that how unstable is Bencic on court. 
Mertens is playing really well. She has won against Hibi, García, Svitolina and Kanepi. From all those players the only one who took a set from her was Elina.

[vvararu]

Thanks @darko08

You are not being disrespectful and I appreciate your feedback.

Indeed, Goffin, Lopez and Bencic are not shining lately. My reasoning for all of them was that they still have the class and, I hope, motivation.

[j6u1uv4n4]

A few players that strike me as very unreliable as favorites at current times are Johanna Konta and Karolina Pliskova. Also I wouldn't be surprised if both of the Estonians fail to win during tonight's round of matches. 

[Foo_Fighter]

Karolína Muchová to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.57 with bet365 

Ostapenko has a career-high WTA ranking of No. 5 in the world, but her current ranking is... #47. In general I consider her very inadequate as a player; her weaknesses are just too exploitable I believe. At least certainly by players like Muchová (current ranking #27), who's in decent form and wants to go deep in this AO. 

Sam Querrey to beat Lorenzo Sonego at 1.9 with bet365 

The Californian big guy is surely not at his best, but there's almost a pattern with him when it comes to his results in Melbourne specifically. He tends to reach the 3rd round very often (2007, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2020) and I'm pretty sure that he didn't participate in a few AO during last decade. Anyway, I feel he's motivated to do an extra step in 2021, and the first Hard-court slam of the season is a great chance for him to do so. On the other hand, I don't think Sonego is anything special as a player in men's tennis, let alone on hard courts. Sometimes he gives me the impression that he relies on his - annoying- grunting getting the job done (intimidate the opponent) rather than his actual game itself. 

Good luck. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Foo_Fighter

[AgaRadwanska]

1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Karolína Muchová to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.57 with bet365 

Quote

Ostapenko has a career-high WTA ranking of No. 5 in the world, but her current ranking is... #47. In general I consider her very inadequate as a player; 

Blasphemy!! ?

 

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by AgaRadwanska