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Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 2.87 with bet365 Barty will face Kovinic in the 1st round, Sorribes/Gavrilova in the 2nd round, S.Zheng/Krejcikova/Trevisan/Alexandrova in the 3rd round,

Jessica Pegula (+1.5 sets) to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.83 with Boylesports Pegula has been tremendously impressive and I liked her mentality against both Svitolina and previously Azarenka. She's

Karolína Muchová (+1.5 sets) to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.2 with bet365  Muchová has proved that her game is much more versatile than we might initially had thought. I didn't expect her to beat Me

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@CzechPunter I agree, I'm not expecting too much from her. Have you seen Halep today? 5-2 down in the 3rd set. Tomjlanovic has played the match of her life but Halep has been really disappointing. What shocked me the most is that she only has won 12/41 points with her 2nd serves... Unbelieavable. I don't expect too much from her... Kudermetova in the next round and then Swiatek, I guess...

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57 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I didn't, but, at this point, Barty and Osaka look like strong favourites to me, with Muguruza and Swiatek close behind.

I will agree with you about all but Muguruza who still looks one dimensional. Barty seems to get stronger match after match. However I think there is money to be made in her Match against Gavrilova. It is a local derby and I am expecting Gavrilova to be as gritty as ever. Gavrilova has slipped into this tournament behind some real potent form that started at the tail end of last year. over 17.5 total games looks very attainable.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Still not convinced about anything, but my shortlist has Shapovalov, Karatsev, Kudermetova and Fucsovics. Thoughts anyone?

 

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Still not convinced about anything, but my shortlist has Shapovalov, Karatsev, Kudermetova and Fucsovics. Thoughts anyone?

I do not know why you will be interested in Fucsovics for any reason especially after that 5 set brawl which he only managed to scrape through. In the context of things Raonic will be considered a step up on Wawrinka. It is going to require maximum concentration to beat a guy like Raonic who he will only have less than a 10% chance of breaking in any service game. He will also need to play at least 40 games + to beat Raonic. He has been unsuccessful twice.

Shapovalov/Aliassime certainly has to be vying for favorite slot match of the day. These two guys are very very close friends who know each other's game from back to front. I remember Shapovalov saying in an interview about 5 years ago that he considered Aliassime his mentor in the way he constantly trained in militant fashion to perfect his game. Remember, unlike Shapovalov, this is a guy that has been billed for the no1 position by many afficionados of the game. You really do not want to go in there taking sides on the outright.I feel if one has to get involved, then total games will be the way to go . My only problem is wondering how fresh Aliassime is after the weeks before, that really is the basis for assessment. I am leaning towards Auger Aliassime.

Kudermentova really is at a spot of advantage from where she is with her game. I really fancy her chances against Halep. This represents a huge opportunity for me. I am a real heavy staker, so I have pressed home this advantage by taking advantage of the Paddy Power alternative handicaps @ +5.5 Kudermentova 2/5

Karasev Looks an unknown quantity. How good is he? I dont know. Or do you??? Question is where has he been since? He looks like he has brushed aside everything in his path to this point. Schwartzman been priced at 3/10 will clearly suggest that Karasev has a real live chance here. My only point against is his age 1993. In comparism, I consider Schwartzman more progressive in terms of past achievements. Hence my opening question "where has he been since?" Any player coming out of nowhere in my opinion should be around 1997-2000 at this stage. Watch the Karasev price currently at 11/5 and see if it shortens just a little bit before the start of play. That would really be positive. Still, minimum of 4 sets expected.

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Still not convinced about anything, but my shortlist has Shapovalov, Karatsev, Kudermetova and Fucsovics. Thoughts anyone?

Yeah I'm defo swerving Shapovalov/Felix. There's just no scoreline that would shock me. 

Karatsev is quite solid, but he was expected to beat Gerasmirov comfortably. He's won a lot of matches, but these have mostly been at Challenger level. Not any ''big names'' in there. Schawartzmann is a different level and imo will come out on top here. 

Kudermetova should at least give Halep a good game. Haven't been impressed in the glimpses I've seen of Halep lately, but tbf I'm basing that mostly off of the 6-1 6-2 defeat to Alexandrova, in which she was dreadful. 

The bets I'm currently looking at for tonight are the in-form Cirstea (to beat Vondrousova), and possibly taking the overs line on Cirstea to break serve on 365 (vond doesn't have much of a serve), and Fiona Ferro (to beat Swiatek) - the latter as match winner and handicap. Thoughts on these, anyone?

 

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I like Cirstea, Ferro not so much, I think there's every chance she'll get crushed. Too many unknows either way, so I delved a bit deeper. Fucsovics I obviously don't like to win, just to take a set or the overs, he won't last 5 sets. After some more deliberation, I settled on these two in the end.

Grigor Dimitrov to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta at 1.87 with Unibet

DImitrov was expected to get past Cilic and he did. I did expect him to have Bolt as a potential banana slip, though, and he came through unscathed. That's a good sign, way better than PCB's struggles towards the end of his match against Vesely. And I don't think we should go to his match against Fognini either, that was just horrid. The conditions are on the faster side of things, so another plus to Dimitrov, who seems to have turned around a corner now. At 1.87, I'm willing to have a bite.

Pedro Martinez to beat Dusan Lajovic at 2.20 with William Hill

Seeing the odds, it was easy to think back to @liquidglass really. You see the 2-0 record and Lajovic's bigger name and you'd think he should be backed at 1.80. Martinez, however, was outstanding against both Nishioka and Ruusuvori. I thought Nishioka self-destructed a bit and he did a little, but he was also comprehensively outplayed and so was the better Finn. Lajovic had two long matches and that could play a role as well. 50/50 at worst I'd say.

 

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went with dimitrov taking a set off busta(1,17 on Unibet)- Grigor seems to have busta's number on hard , but I'm still not sold on grigor's game 100% so I'm not gonna bet on him to win it all.

Shapovalov to beat alliasime (1,52 odds)- I mean shapo has a definite h2h edge in slams and to me he looks like the more inform player with a game that just has more to offer than alliasime's. Denis can be erratic but so can Auger.

Last one is Martinez to take a set off lajovic (1,20 odds on Unibet)- I'm gonna be honest I'm going on Czechpunter's hint on this one since I've only caught a bit out of lajovic 's matches here but nothing from Martinez. The spaniard 's wins definetly seem more convincing to me than lajovic's and even their last match which was a straight set victory for the serbian was a razor close 7-6 7-6.

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Jessica Pegula (-3.5 Games) to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.80 with bet365

Pegula is still to lose a set in this tournament. She has won against Azarenka (7-5, 6-4) and Stosur (6-0, 6-1). I haven't watched the later one but against Azarenka she played really well, comebacking a 5-2 in the 1st set. Mladenovic has won against Sakkari (6-2, 0-6, 6-3) and Hibino (7-5, 6-1). Hibino choked when she was leading the 1st set 5-3, losing 4 straight games and that frustrated her for the second one. And then, we have that bagel in her match against Sakkari. IMO, Pegula is so much player than Mladenovic right now, by far, and the fact that she has only lost 1 game in her match against Stosur tells me that her comeback against Azarenka has been great for her confidence. Another interesting fact to be considered is that Pegula won against Mladenovic here just 1 week ago, and she did clearly (6-4, 6-1). 

Kaia Kanepi (-3,5 Games) to beat Donna Vekic at 1.90 with William Hill

Kanepi has won against Sevastova (6-3, 6-1) and Kenin (6-3, 6-2). I was concerned about her physique but she only has been in court 2 hours in her first 2 matches here. I did not appreciate fatigue in her match against Kenin. Vekic came here in a bad form. She lost in the 1st round against Pera in Abu Dhabi and Pironkova in the Varra Yalley Classic. She dropped a set against Yafan Wang in her first match here and won in 2 sets against Podoroska. Kanepi is in better form and, as I said, she only has been 2 hours in court. 

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Only one for tonight.

Simona Halep (-3,5 Games) to beat Kudermetova at 1.83 with bet365

I will go against the majority in this one. Halep was on the border of the abysm in her first match against Tomjlanovic. The aussie was leading 5-2 the final set and she was playing really well. The people who watched the match will know how Halep won those 5 straight games and it wasn't because Tomjlanovic choked (she played her best match ever, from the beginning until the end). She did because she showed her best version on those 5 games. As I said, overall Halep did not play well and her % of points won with 2nd serves was awful: 29% (12-41) but IMO that victory can only make her improving for the next rounds. Kudermetova has been playing really well, especially in Abu Dhabi, but there are a couple of things that makes me go against her. The first one is that she was one of the players that was under a strict quarantine while Halep was in Adelaide. Looks like her game hasn't been as convincing after that. In the Grampians Trophy she lost against Ann Li in 2 sets, after winning against Watson, also in 2 sets. She dropped a set against Gracheva in her last match here after winning against Kostyuk, again, in a tight match. She has played against 2 young players so IMO playing Halep will be a big jump for her. Not only because Halep is so much better player than Gracheva and Kostyuk but also because she has a complete different style of playing... while Halep has faced a similar player in her last match. It's hard to know what version we will see from them but IMO Halep can only improve after that thrilling victory.

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6 hours ago, AgaRadwanska said:

Yeah I'm defo swerving Shapovalov/Felix. There's just no scoreline that would shock me. 

Karatsev is quite solid, but he was expected to beat Gerasmirov comfortably. He's won a lot of matches, but these have mostly been at Challenger level. Not any ''big names'' in there. Schawartzmann is a different level and imo will come out on top here. 

Kudermetova should at least give Halep a good game. Haven't been impressed in the glimpses I've seen of Halep lately, but tbf I'm basing that mostly off of the 6-1 6-2 defeat to Alexandrova, in which she was dreadful. 

The bets I'm currently looking at for tonight are the in-form Cirstea (to beat Vondrousova), and possibly taking the overs line on Cirstea to break serve on 365 (vond doesn't have much of a serve), and Fiona Ferro (to beat Swiatek) - the latter as match winner and handicap. Thoughts on these, anyone?

 

It is so very difficult to weight Ferro up, but I really really like her. She looks like a real sleeping dog. It will not shock me to see her win and perhaps run very deep. Same comment applies to vekic over Kanepi. Shocks certainly brewing.

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In my humble opinion backing Ferro against Swiatek is a dumb move. Swiatek has proved that her game is made for clay and hard courts. When she was 17/18 years old she was already beating on this surface some of the best players of the circuit, as Jabeur, Vekic, Rogers, Wozniacki, Caroline García,... Ferro is a clay court player and she barely has a positive record on this surface, built in part from ITF matches. I only have watched the highlights from her match against Rybakina but when I saw her losing against Krejcikova I knew something was happening there. It will shock me a lot if Swiatek is not in the next round, especially after watching how she has won against Rus and Giorgi. IMO there better underdogs out there than Ferro.

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22 minutes ago, darko08 said:

In my humble opinion backing Ferro against Swiatek is a dumb move. Swiatek has proved that her game is made for clay and hard courts. When she was 17/18 years old she was already beating on this surface some of the best players of the circuit, as Jabeur, Vekic, Rogers, Wozniacki, Caroline García,... Ferro is a clay court player and she barely has a positive record on this surface, built in part from ITF matches. I only have watched the highlights from her match against Rybakina but when I saw her losing against Krejcikova I knew something was happening there. It will shock me a lot if Swiatek is not in the next round, especially after watching how she has won against Rus and Giorgi. IMO there better underdogs out there than Ferro.

You may be right in your assertion. However we know in this game that the best player does not always win. Sometimes it might just require a dumb move to acquire success. I think Ferro is a valid dumb move here!

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6 hours ago, darko08 said:

In my humble opinion backing Ferro against Swiatek is a dumb move. Swiatek has proved that her game is made for clay and hard courts. When she was 17/18 years old she was already beating on this surface some of the best players of the circuit, as Jabeur, Vekic, Rogers, Wozniacki, Caroline García,... Ferro is a clay court player and she barely has a positive record on this surface, built in part from ITF matches. I only have watched the highlights from her match against Rybakina but when I saw her losing against Krejcikova I knew something was happening there. It will shock me a lot if Swiatek is not in the next round, especially after watching how she has won against Rus and Giorgi. IMO there better underdogs out there than Ferro.

yes but ferro is unpredicatble just like schwarztman and andrescu. I will favor iga as well.

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2 hours ago, vladisimo2 said:

well I made a point a year ago to never bet on shapovalov , and of course the ONE time I decide to bet on him he dissapoints completely. I think he is also sick or something I've heard from the commentators... some things you just cannot analyse.

he is the most overrated player and I dont think there is anything special about him. felix is a tough customer even for top seeds

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Likeliest winner from underdogs Bencic, Putintseva, Juvan and Alexandrova?

Putintseva seems to be pigeoned by Svitolina, however most of the matches have been played long time ago. 

Bencic seems over ranked and has been playing a different level of players compared to Mertens. 

Juvan I don't know much about, but Brady has been very consistent lately.

Alexandrova looks like a good bet as Barty isn't 100%?

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1 hour ago, bet4fun said:

he is the most overrated player and I dont think there is anything special about him. felix is a tough customer even for top seeds

well agree to disagree then. Shapovalov is extremly talented IMO, but his mentality and lack of consistency are letting  him down hard.Anyway a player to avoid in betting.

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