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KONTAVEIT vs SASNOVICH

This really is a very hard game to call with both players knowing each other's game very well. The head to head is 5-4 Sasnovich with Kontaveit currently in the groove amid a continuing February winning streak. I just do not know how fresh Kontaveit is coming into this tournament aside her form. Sasnovich is 2/2 coming into the tournament and I feel like if I had to be anybody this minute i'd rather be Sasnovich who appears strategically fresh and strikes my senses as dangerous. Sasnovich recently beat Tsurenko 2-1 and lost to Begu 2-1. Looking through the eye of Begu's form i'd say she must have done just enough to get her ready for Melbourne. I am leaning strongly on a Sasnovich win here. But believing that she is the fresher physically, I will rather go for the safer option which is Sasnovich to win with +4.5 Bet365.com

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Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 2.87 with bet365 Barty will face Kovinic in the 1st round, Sorribes/Gavrilova in the 2nd round, S.Zheng/Krejcikova/Trevisan/Alexandrova in the 3rd round,

Jessica Pegula (+1.5 sets) to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.83 with Boylesports Pegula has been tremendously impressive and I liked her mentality against both Svitolina and previously Azarenka. She's

Karolína Muchová (+1.5 sets) to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.2 with bet365  Muchová has proved that her game is much more versatile than we might initially had thought. I didn't expect her to beat Me

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Player Total Breaks of Serve in Match - Maxime Cressy Over 0.5 (vs. Zverev) at 1.83 with Bet365

Well, it's the first time I'm diving into this sort of prop market, but I just can't stay away from this one. We're getting 1.83 for Zverev to get broken in the entire match against Cressy, which looks pretty juicy to me. First, Cressy looked way above average against Daniel. Second, Zverev can easily break himself with his risky second serves. I'd have this at 1.40 or so honestly.

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Unbelievable... The way she has collapsed when she was serving for the match (5-2) is unbelievable... I have seen this kind of things, especially in the WTA, but this one was totally unexpected considering how the match was going on. Azarenka had the match absolutely under control. This is one of the strangest things I have seen for a long time because Azarenka is well known for her mental strength. Well, we have the first big surprise of the tournament, let's see which ones more we have because I'm expecting some big ones in this tournament...

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I would never bet on querrey tbh, prety obvious he'd have a tough time with sonego in my opinion. Anyway has anyone watched agut -albot ? I'm quite suprised that bautista folded so easily. Also the courts seem realy fast (atleast the one rafa played on) compared to last years, did nadal seem hampered to you guys ? He came up with some trademark amazing shots against djere but also seemed to be sluggish at times. 

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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Player Total Breaks of Serve in Match - Maxime Cressy Over 0.5 (vs. Zverev) at 1.83 with Bet365

Well, it's the first time I'm diving into this sort of prop market, but I just can't stay away from this one. We're getting 1.83 for Zverev to get broken in the entire match against Cressy, which looks pretty juicy to me. First, Cressy looked way above average against Daniel. Second, Zverev can easily break himself with his risky second serves. I'd have this at 1.40 or so honestly.

Oh that's realy interesting but just like you, I've never delved in this type of sketchy market and kind of have a big biass against betting on stuff like this :)).

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On 2/8/2021 at 1:58 PM, darko08 said:

Sorana Cirstea (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.00 with William Hill

I repeat with Cirstea. Cirstea has won against Tig (6-1, 6-2) while Kvitova has won against Minnen (6-3, 6-4). Kvitova hasn't showed her best tennis here. She had a hard battle against Venus (7-6, 7-5) and lost against Podoroska (7-5, 1-6, 6-7) in her preparation matches here. As I said before, Cirstea came here in a good form. She won an ITF tournament in Dubai, beating Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. In her preparation matches she beat Bencic and lost against Ann Li, both in straight sets. Kvitova looks quite vulnerable and Cirstea is in a good form and she usually shows her best tennis when she faces big players. 

Bernarda Pera to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.61 with bet365

This is entirely based on how Pera has played against Kerber (6-0, 6-4). Probably she has played the best match of her career... She cleaned every single line of the court, hitting really hard the ball and giving no opportunities to Kerber. In the 2nd set Pera started to play a little bit conservative and that's when Kerber started to win games but finally Pera returned to her initial version and closed the match without problems. IMO, if Pera shows a similar version than today she should win the match, easily. The last time they played was in the US Open 2020 and Pera won 7-6, 6-0.

I add this one.

Iga Swiatek (2-0) to beat Camila Giorgi at 1.66 with bet365

Swiatek has been really convincing in her match against Rus (6-1, 6-3) while Giorgi has not been tested yet as she has played against Shvedova (6-3, 6-3) in the 1st round. In her preparation matches Giorgi had to retire in her match against Kenin after losing the 1st set, due to a thigh injury. I haven't seen the best version of Giorgi for a long time. I still remember her match against Osaka in the USO. She played really bad..., no patience in the construction of the points, UEs, DFs,... We all know how she plays but that was too much... 

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@lelit Yep,.. But Giorgi has not been playing well. Swiatek's game also suits on fast courts. She has been super solid on serve against Rus (only 1 BP in the whole match..), she has more variety than Giorgi and we know what happens when Giorgi is not accurate... she gifts a lot of points. But you're right, if Giorgi has a good day she can even win but, as I said, I haven't seen her good version for a long time. Let's see

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For tonight I'll go with :

Fucsovis taking a set off stan (1,35 odds)- stan started well it seemed to me in the first match and he is my favorite player but that doesn't mean I won't go against him sometimes especialy since he can be wildly inconsistent. Martin is a skilled player that can prety much  pose a problem to anyone on a good day, so as long as he is physical fit , it's hard for me to see how he can be straight setted by stan.(but hey never know when a random stanimal appears)

Careno Busta beating Vesely (1,19 odds on Unibet as far as I remember)- I'm gonna be honest, I'm nowhere near 100% sure on this one but careno, recently only gets his ass kicked  by players above him. Vesely I think is getting in a bit better form, but careno should be able to outgrind him.

Last one is Humbert taking a set of Kyrgios(1,21 odds). Not much to say here, dunno how much kyrgios will resist physicaly if the match gets longer and he is also a very easily rustled player. I think humbert even has what it takes to  beat him.

 

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Two for me this evening, both on the WTA side. I'm backing Diyas to beat Pera, as I think the price for Pera is too short and is mainly due to her strong win over Kerber. These two met at the last US Open and although Pera won, the foundation for the win was taking a tie-break in the first set. Also, for that match the odds were much closer which reinforces my feeling that the prices have been swayed too much by how Pera played in the first round - neither player was in great form ahead of this tournament so this feels more like a pick 'em to me. I'm also backing Giorgi to beat Swiatek, because as much as Swiatek is a talented player I still prefer her on clay, whilst Giorgi is definitely at her most comfortable on hard. She may misfire, and her level is very hard to guage generally because she either paints the lines or hits everything out but that's priced into the odds and I'm happy to take a chance on her.

20pts Diyas to beat Pera @ 2.50 Bet365

15pts Giorgi to beat Swiatek @ 4.00 Bet365

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Andreescu lost early, but I got it wrong with Azarenka. Painful that, but there you go.

Nadia Podoroska to beat Donna Vekic at 1.61 with Bet365

Elina Svitolina to beat Cori Gauff at 1.53 with Bet365

Player Total Breaks of Serve in Match - Thiago Monteiro Over 0.5 (vs. Rublev) at 1.50 with Bet365

Going with three short odds for tomorrow, let's see if the luck changes a bit. So far, I've liked Podoroska and Svitolina way more than Vekic and Gauff. Podoroska is rising big time at the moment, while Gauff is struggling and the improvement against Teichmann doesn't change the equation. Meanwhile, Monteiro really should break Rublev at least once. He's been on fire this season, has a solid record and started the Australian Open with an empathic 3-0 win. Sure, he won't beat Rublev, but the Russian faced 4 beak points against the undercooked Hanfmann in the first round and lost his serve once. Monteiro is way better in rallies than Hanfmann.

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5 hours ago, Torque said:

Happens a lot @darko08 Diyas just did something similar against Pera. Sometimes it goes in your favour, sometimes not.

I haven't seen that match, but I see what you're talking about, Diyas wasted a lot of BPs in the 1st set. I was wrong about that one... how many times we have seen a player doing the match of his life but then losing miserably in the next round against weaker opposition... As you said, none of them was in a good form and only one good match means nothing. Good for that one. Anyways, I have to say you something. Your other bet was senseless. As I said before, Giorgi was not playing well and she retired from her match against Kenin due to a thigh injury. In her match against Shvedova she was already wearing the same straps she has wore today. I have not appreciated any kind of problem on her moves but it's something you have to consider when you place a bet. Swiatek came here after winning the FO easily and she proved against Rus that she doesn't feel the pressure that so many young players feel after winning a GS. Her match against Rus was simply brilliant. In conclusion, you backed a player who hasn't showed her best version for a long time, who had to retire from her match just 8 days ago due to a injury, and you did it against one of the best current players of the circuit. So, your only reason was that maybe, and just maybe, Giorgi could display her best version despite she hasn't showed it for a long time. 
IMO you had some better options if you were looking for big odds. Cirstea was a good option as Kvitova looked heavy and tired against Podoroska while Cirstea was playing good, coming with 7 straight wins on her back. She was even better priced than Giorgi. I felt alluded by your bets and that's why I comment it.

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1 hour ago, darko08 said:

I haven't seen that match, but I see what you're talking about, Diyas wasted a lot of BPs in the 1st set. I was wrong about that one... how many times we have seen a player doing the match of his life but then losing miserably in the next round against weaker opposition... As you said, none of them was in a good form and only one good match means nothing. Good for that one. Anyways, I have to say you something. Your other bet was senseless. As I said before, Giorgi was not playing well and she retired from her match against Kenin due to a thigh injury. In her match against Shvedova she was already wearing the same straps she has wore today. I have not appreciated any kind of problem on her moves but it's something you have to consider when you place a bet. Swiatek came here after winning the FO easily and she proved against Rus that she doesn't feel the pressure that so many young players feel after winning a GS. Her match against Rus was simply brilliant. In conclusion, you backed a player who hasn't showed her best version for a long time, who had to retire from her match just 8 days ago due to a injury, and you did it against one of the best current players of the circuit. So, your only reason was that maybe, and just maybe, Giorgi could display her best version despite she hasn't showed it for a long time. 
IMO you had some better options if you were looking for big odds. Cirstea was a good option as Kvitova looked heavy and tired against Podoroska while Cirstea was playing good, coming with 7 straight wins on her back. She was even better priced than Giorgi. I felt alluded by your bets and that's why I comment it.

Actually I was referring to the second set, which Diyas lost after failing to defend the only break point she faced whilst failing to take any of the six she created - anyway, no matter. As far as the Giorgi bet goes, I guess it's a perfect example of different opinions. I knew Giorgi was likely to lose, but the price on her suggested she would only win the match 25 percent of the time. I think she wins the match more than 25 percent of the time, even taking into account the factors against her. Conversely, I don't think think she wins the match in straight sets 60 percent of the time, which is the bet you took. Your opinion might be right, my opinion might be right - who can say for sure. Many times over the years I've had a bet that lost that I was happy with, and also a bet that won that I wasn't happy I placed. I try to look at the big picture, and I've learnt over time that a winning bet isn't always a good bet.

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Also @darko08 it's interesting that you mentioned Cirstea as a better alternative. I wonder if you would have done that if she'd lost. With hindsight, it's easy to say that was the bet to take because it won but I take a different view. Just because Cirstea won doesn't necessarily make me think I should have backed her. I agree with the points you made though about Kvitova - I noticed she had some problems against Minnen and she really shouldn't have done.

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22 minutes ago, Torque said:

Also @darko08 it's interesting that you mentioned Cirstea as a better alternative. I wonder if you would have done that if she'd lost. With hindsight, it's easy to say that was the bet to take because it won but I take a different view. Just because Cirstea won doesn't necessarily make me think I should have backed her. I agree with the points you made though about Kvitova - I noticed she had some problems against Minnen and she really shouldn't have done.

I only mentioned Cirstea because is the non-favorite player that I picked as a bet, not because she had won. It wouldn't be fair if I had mentioned Ferro or Hsieh as better options because I did not post anything about them. Personally,  I had 4 or 5 players priced at similar odds that, IMO, had better options than Giorgi but, as you said, we have different opinions. I just was surprised that from all the underdogs you picked that one, that's all. Btw, it's interesting to see that most of the big upsets are players who were under strict quarantine (Azarenka, Rybakina, Sakkari, Andreescu, Kerber,...).

 

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2 minutes ago, darko08 said:

I only mentioned Cirstea because is the non-favorite player that I picked as a bet, not because she had won. It wouldn't be fair if I had mentioned Ferro or Hsieh as better options because I did not post anything about them. Personally,  I had 4 or 5 players priced at similar odds that, IMO, had better options than Giorgi but, as you said, we have different opinions. I just was surprised that from all the underdogs you picked that one, that's all. Btw, it's interesting to see that most of the big upsets are players who were under strict quarantine (Azarenka, Rybakina, Sakkari, Andreescu, Kerber,...).

 

I saw you tipped Cirstea on a plus, but even if you had mentioned Ferro or Hsieh they both won - my point was would you have given an example of a player who lost. About the hard quarantine, I think there might be something in the idea that it's been affecting results. It's not a big sample obviously, but definitely food for thought.

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Nao Hibino (+1,5 Sets) to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.72 with bet365

Nao Hibino to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 2.90 with Unibet

I got nothing much to say about this match. Mladenovic won her match against Sakkari (6-2, 0-6, 6-3) but we know how unstable she has been in the last years and it's really painful to see her with such odds. Hibino won her 1st match here against Sharma in a 3 set match. The last year Hibino did well here. She won against Peng in the 1st round, coming form the qualy, and then played a close match against Sakkari (6-7, 4-6). 

I add one more.

Sofia Kenin to beat Kaia Kanepi at 1.80 with betfair

This can be a tight one but Kenin is the current champion so at these odds it deserves a shot. Kanepi did so well in her preparation matches here but she dropped sets against Sharma and Sabalenka and finally she lost clearly against Mertens (6-4, 6-1). She's 35 years old and we know how she has struggled with her physique. Kenin did not impress me at all against Inglis. I saw her a little bit anxious but it's never easy to play against a young local rising star in the 1st round.

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I was thinking about backing Kenin myself. Not in her prime form, true, but she could even just outlast Kanepi, who has played way too much tennis in the last days. I don't think that Kenin has what it takes to win the title at all, though, doesn't strike me as being capable of going near at the moment.

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