Torque

It's ridiculous to get on anyone's back about a losing run. Without the aid of a crystal ball, no matter how good you are at assessing the odds and trying to pick out value, there will always be losing runs. It's just impossible to avoid. What counts is results over a long series of bets.

It's ridiculous to get on anyone's back about a losing run. Without the aid of a crystal ball, no matter how good you are at assessing the odds and trying to pick out value, there will always be losing runs. It's just impossible to avoid. What counts is results over a long series of bets.

Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up. 

This looks like quite a difficult card comming off the back of the international break which does not help matters.
Important to consider that the sword of damocles looms over Di Francesco (Sampdoria), Giampaolo (AC Milan), Andreazzoli (Genoa) and possibly Tudor (Udinese). There may have been one or two managerial changes by the time this league restarts on the 19th, which again can muddy the waters even more.
Both Brescia and Sassuolo will have had a 3 week gap between Serie A fixtures as their match was postponed on Friday. Brescia at least will play a club friendly this weekend.
I have my shortlist drawn up, will track price movements and team news but no early bets so far. The Italian landscape remains foggy for now.
 

Thanks Torque, but unfortunately that’s that after the first bet! Knox was one ahead with 3 holes to play and found the water in 2 of the 3, finishing bogey, bogey, double  bogey. I would say that’s unlucky, but the other bets I was contemplating today were goals in the arsenal game and Scott to be the highest Australian in the golf, neither of which came in so I’ve come to the conclusion it ain’t going to happen for me...
Good luck with your attempt torque. I’ve been following ‘offline’ and you play it well, being patient with well thought out reasoning in your bets, just been unlucky a few times now. My only advice would be to bank a bit of the money if you do get on a bit of a roll. Best of luck.

BOL @League1_punter. You can definitely do it - I've turned 100 into 1000 more than once - but there's no doubt it's hard to do.

Week 8
*Every week i deal with over 130 bets made by the players of this competition, manually settled and entered onto a spreadsheet. Each week is copy and paste the odds and produce league tables, mostly accurate?. Oh and dont forget the £2000 per year prize money we give away.
In return all we ask is for the members to choose some teams, quote the odds and add their stake, its not asking too much is it??
Players have 5 days to perform this act, not 5 minutes on a Saturday.
On a brighter note, well done to Runadrum who landed a monster 40/1+ draw treble this week
* A lot of Monday bets still to sort out.
Overall Table

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

@Rey86 Of course anything can be learned if you have the will and discipline to do it, but sports betting is different.
Blackjack Basic Strategy - lots of people think they know this, but you'll be amazed how many get it wrong and you only need to make a handful of wrong decisions to make that low 0.25% house edge roar into a 5% edge. I was sat next to someone in the MGM a couple of years back who said he knew how to play basic strategy, yet refused to surrender or take another card every time when he had 16 against the dealers 10, or JQK  
Poker - there's a hell of a lot of skill here, but to be honest you're often playing the player not the cards.
Sports Betting - oh jeeesus where do I start!  
One thing you must have is discipline or you're doomed, this means managing your betting bank properly and being patient. The other major thing you must have which can take quite a long time, is the understanding of value, overround and how to compile your own odds, which is often a gut feeling to an extent, but of course based on stats and form.
I've often tried to explain in quite simple terms what value is, and I'll repeat it again here.
Liverpool are playing Norwich at home and are fully expected to win....
Would you back Liverpool at 1.01? If not, why not.
Would you back Liverpool at 1.05? If not, why not.
Would you back Liverpool at 1.10? If not, why not.
Basically, there is always a point where you will back that team and the odds dictate the bet, not the team. So where's the line? Apply that to each bet and you won't go far wrong.

This is (unfortunately) not correct

Matteo Berrettini (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 2.00 with Pinnacle
Going against Murray once again. Granted, Berrettini shouldn't pose him the same fitness issues as De Minaur, but he's a better player overall and he's been crunching it for a while now. Motivation shouldn't be an issue at all and he shouldn't have too many nerves after facing both Monfils and Nadal with reasonable success in the US Open, so I think Murray is going to suffer another defeat here. He just doesn't seem to be in a competitive shape at the moment.

It's been a disappointing start but I'm not deterred by it.  Looking through the past results there are many losing streaks and it only takes a few wins to get back on track.  I will keep posting the selections and results.  There's nothing for tomorrow and it doesn't look like there are any possible selections for the following few days.

That win to NIL bet is just so tricky to win. There is always some stupid goal or weird stuff that  kills it.

Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match has seen 8 conversions in this world cup so far, and the only ones with more than 5 were ITA-NAM and WAL-GEO.. Wales and Italy have accurate shooters. Tomorrow, Volavola is not starting and I imagine it will be Matavesi who'll shoot the penalties and conversions. From what I could find, he has an all time record of 17/25 conversions which equals to 68%. Alright but far from outstanding. In Uruguay, I found that Berchesi has around a 73% conversion rate (8/11). It's true that the sample is not big enough to correctly assess the shooting ratio but it can show more or less some trends. Then with a 70% conversion rate, there should be around 8-9 tries to have over 5.5 conversions.. The spread on tries is currently at 7.5 (1.80-1.90 more or less), so -5.5 conversions at 2.45 represents nice value to me. I think -6.5 is a safer option but would have loved higher odds than 1.65...
-5.5 conversions at 2.45 with Unibet

Thanks for your interest Blinking Spirit. Looking back over at least 55 years of betting how things have changed over that time. At the start my main information came from the Sporting Life and such characters as Prince Monolulu. All very basic stuff. Today with the internet how much easier it is. With all my present day bets I do varying amounts of study. How I envy all the 'maths' punters who can work out stats etc at the drop of a hat. My way is a lot more basic. I usually look at recent results in football and do a varying amount of different kinds of bets to suit the situation. For instance: Arsenal can't defend, Newcastle can't score etc. In golf and cricket the weather plays a big part so I look at the weather forecasts for these events. Despite all this studying I still 'chase' my losses and do silly bets in a moment of stupidity. As for the England/Tonga game I thought the bet was a 'good thing' but I didn't anticipate the number of substitutions England would make which broke up the game. Over the years I've made good money and lost good money but at least it's not been boring. My record on this site has been patchy to say the least but I am hopeful of getting it right this time. 

I didn't see it but I'll be opposing Murray. Physically I don't think he's up to playing professional singles tournaments - what I mean is I think his body needs more time to recover between matches than he's getting. I'm convinced that's the explanation for his poor performance against Viola in Mallorca after he'd beaten a far better player in Gombos.

I didn't see it but I'll be opposing Murray. Physically I don't think he's up to playing professional singles tournaments - what I mean is I think his body needs more time to recover between matches than he's getting. I'm convinced that's the explanation for his poor performance against Viola in Mallorca after he'd beaten a far better player in Gombos.

So Bet365 have priced up the games they are betting in play on so its a bit of a random list out of all the ties. The FA Cup is the one time I allow myself to do a short priced acca so I have put a 1pt 5 fold together for the games 365 have priced up which pays just over 4/1. They are York to win at Irlam (in the live game covered by the BBC), Dulwich to beat Bognor, Wealdstone to win at Farnborough, Maidstone to beat Cheshunt and Tiverton to beat Bristol Manor Farm. 

Quick post re my current fixed odds portfolio. You'll be relieved to hear I haven't got the energy to go into as much detail as I did with the spread markets!
Argentina to win at 40/1 Hills
Ireland to win at 16/1 888
Reece top tryscorer at 15/1 888
Thoughts: These three can be filed under "using an odds boost or free bet before it expired".
Any player to score >100 points in the tournament at 9/4 with Hills
Any player to score 100+ points in the tournament at 5/1 with Betway
Thoughts: I'd taken the worse price and terms with Hills before I saw the second bet (don't think it was available at the time). My gut feel is it was just about a bet at 9/4 and is decent value at 5/1 (though I was limited to small stake).
Any team to score >90 points in a match at 6/4 with Fred
Any player to score 6+ tries in a match at 16/1 with Betway
Any player to score 8+ tries in the tournament at 9/4 with Betway
Thoughts: Basically, all bets where my gut feel told me the line and price combine for a bit of value, with due regard to prices elsewhere and stats across the last 4 World Cups.
South Africa v New Zealand final at 10/3 with Hills
Thoughts: Sub 3/1 virtually everywhere else, Rugby Vision's ratings assess this as around a 28% chance of happening. Whilst I wouldn't follow their view slavishly it's certainly worth paying some regard to them and I felt this was worth a go.
Total drawn games >0.5 at 6/5 with Lads
Thoughts: Close to a coin toss for me with no draws perhaps the less likely outcome. I'd rather take the 6/5 for this side of the line than the 5/4 for <0.5.

Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen.
Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins)
N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140
Biggest winning margin: 91-96
Highest scoring game: 105-110
Lowest scoring game: 17-19.5
Fastest try (seconds): 75-78
Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27
Fastest hat trick (mins): 33-36
Highest tries in a match: 15.5-16.5
Highest kicked pens in a match: 8.75-9.75
Highest shirts in a match: 212-220
Highest bookings points in a match: 48-53

Part 2!
Unused subs: 49-53 (57 in 2015)
Thoughts: I got a bit excited about this as a potential buy as I was piecing together what stats I could find until I realised that 2015 was the first time 8 subs were allowed. As it was a new development then I suspect teams will be more used to making use of 8 replacements so it's no bet for me.
Bookings points: 625-630, ave = 371.25 (555 - 230 - 400 - 300)
Yellow cards: 54-55, ave = 34 (53 - 18 - 35 - 30)
Red cards: 3.5-4, ave = 1.25 (1 - 2 - 2 - 0)
Thoughts: Total bookings points looks like a potential sell in the absence of anything that suggests an upsurge in cards this year. Red cards may be over-stated. I'll be mulling this one over before getting involved.
Total drawn games: 0.75-0.9, ave = 0.75 (0 - 1 - 1 - 1)
Thoughts: I've taken 6/5 for any drawn game with Lads. Not sure it should be odds against.
Total games won to nil: 2.96-2.9, ave = 2 (1 - 2 - 4 - 1)
I'm not quite comparing like with like here as Spreadex's market is actually based on 25 points per team scoring 0 so you could get 50 points in the event of a game ending 0-0 (not including abandoned games) but let's ignore that possibility. The Tote go 1/2 for any game to be won to nil and I think that's a good price but I can't quite bring myself to put the hefty bet on that would be required to make it worthwhile at the price.
Tryless matches: 0.75-0.95, ave 2 (1 - 3 - 3 - 1)
Thoughts: Not much downside but hardly an exciting prospect as a buy. Might keep any eye out for a fixed odds price that appeals.
One last post to come in terms of spreads, just a list of the remaining markets I've seen but without stats or comments.

Ok, gird you loins, here comes my 3 part review of the current spread markets! Not sure it'll be of interest to many on here but I've done the work so might as well post it. Best price spread followed by average and stats from past 4 World Cups (most recent first) and brief thoughts on potential or actual bets.
Total Points : 2550-2575, Ave = 2499.25 (2439 - 2245 - 2478 - 2835)
Thoughts - share the consensus that this is a sell if anything but prefer to bet in other markets.
Total Tries: 305-315, Ave = 290.25 (271 - 262 - 296 - 332)
Thoughts - similar to points, again you're going back to 2003 to find the spread covered.
Total Penalty Tries: 9-10, Ave = 5 (6 - 4)
Thoughts - only got stats for 15 and 11, looks a bit high to me barring relevant rule changes but too low a price to be selling at.
Total Tryscorer shirts: 3500-3550
Thoughts - no stats and no feel for this one, posted in case of interest.
Total successful penalties: 182-192, Ave = 194.75 (224 - 171 - 178 - 206)
Thoughts: No strong view on this one.
Total successful conversions: 226-236, Ave = 207.5 (194 - 171 - 211 - 244)
Thoughts: Already sold this at 230. If the spreads were right about the number of tries then you'd still need the success rate to be slightly higher than it's been over the last 4 tournaments (ave = 71.5%).
Total drop goals: 7.5-7.25, Ave = 16.25 (8 - 20 - 14 - 23)
Thoughts: already bought at 6.75. Even allowing for the downward trend I don't think there's much downside to a buy at that price. Currently a slight arb on this market.
Total missed kicks: 122-132, Ave = 223.25 (152 - 235 - 222 - 284)
Thoughts: already bought at 130. This looks way too low to me, even if some of those stats look iffy (apparently the success rate for drop goals is really low and it would appear teams were pinging them in from all over the shop prior to 2015). If you exclude drop goals you still get an average of 166.5.
Total 50-ups: 440-460, Ave = 458.75 (328 - 386 - 474 - 647)
Thoughts: Potential sell if you think the points lines are too high anyway. Treat the stats with caution as I've just compiled them from ESPN while furiously stabbing at a calculator!
Total Ton-ups: 11, Ave = 21.75 (0 - 0 - 21 - 66)
Thoughts: This was 17 to buy or sell when I first posted the early numbers so obviously seen sellers. There are better ways to bet on low points totals but a low risk buy if you do still fancy a blow out or two. There have been just the 3 games seeing >100 points, 1 in 07 and 2 in 03.

And motivation issues it looked and sounded like as well 

Normally I try to put up a few words about why I'm backing something before the off, but I didn't get a chance tonight so instead I'll do it retrospectively and also reflect on how the bet panned out...
San Marino against Belgium pitted the worst international team in the world against the best, and the discrepancy between the two teams was highlighted by the fact you couldn't even back Belgium for the win on the exchanges as nobody wanted to lay them. With a win for Belgium a virtual certainty, the next question was how many would they win by. Ahead of the start, the line I was looking at was over 3.5 goals at about 1.10. I wasn't keen to back that many goals though, because as much as it was highly likely there would be a lot of goals ultimately there's little incentive for a big favourite to run up a big score - if it happens it happens, but if not and as long as the win is secured then it's no big deal. The over 2.5 goal line was about 1.03 and that felt to me like the minimum number of goals Belgium would get as a 1-0 or 2-0 win against such limited opposition would be slightly embarrassing for the best team in the world. As 1.03 was shorter than I wanted to back at, I requested 1.05 in-play and hoped for a slow start to the match and within about 10 minutes the bet was matched.
As expected, Belgium were dominating in all the key stats but they hadn't yet scored and that continued until about five minutes before half-time when they finally broke the deadlock. At this point the bet I bought at 1.05 was now trading at 1.15 - still very likely to win but much less likely than before the match started - and I wasn't feeling confident as I wondered if Belgium might just get a second goal and then sit back for a comfortable win. Fortunately, and this was one of the reasons I took the bet, the Belgian manager is attack-minded and was no doubt unhappy with the lack of goals and so sent on a couple of substitutes and it was those substitutes that quickly scored the goals needed for my bet to land. At this point I didn't care what happened during the rest of the match, but I kept an eye on it to see if the over 3.5 goal line would land. Heading into injury time it looked like there would only be three goals, but with almost the last kick of the game Belgium got a fourth. I'm glad I didn't back four goals or more though - I'm trying to find things to back that win comfortably and that definitely wouldn't have been a comfortable win if I'd been on it.

Some bondage on his left leg after just 7 games' you still go with Medvedev? 
Bandage not bondage sorry???

https://www.essentiallysports.com/stan-wawrinka-isnt-optimally-fit-before-for-his-quarterfinal-encounter-the-us-open-2019/
I think this is important information