Rugby World Cup 2019

[harry_rag]

Starts a week on Friday, thought I'd set up a thread on the assumption that there'll be a few of us taking an interest. Initial thoughts and bets to follow.

[harry_rag]

Both spread firms have some tournament totals markets up now, here are the market prices you can buy or sell at.

Total points: 2600-2625

Total Tries: 310-317

Total Drop Goals: 7

Total Yellow Cards: 53-55

Total Red Cards: 3.5-3.75

Total Bookings Points: 610-625

Total Draws: 0.75-0.9

Total Ton-Ups: 17 (aggregate total of points >100 in an individual game)

Will be taking a closer look tomorrow.

[Zemside]

Red cards and draws seem low at a glance ...but these are done by those stats analysts.

One major aspect will be the weather... affecting points in the heat as well as those typhoons.

[harry_rag]

These are the bets that I've had so far.

Argentina to win at 40/1 with Hills (using free bet that was due to expire)
Ireland to win at 16/1 with 888 (made use of a limited time 100% odds boost)
Reece top tryscorer at 15/1 with 888 (as above but 50%)
Any team to score >90 points in a match at 6/4 with Fred
Any player to score >100 points in the tournament at 9/4 with Hills
Buy total drop goals at 6.75 with SPIN

The first three of those are just small bets making use of freebies and offers. The other three are ones where I think the odds may be slightly generous, the strongest selection being the buy of drop goals (8 in 2015 then 20, 14 and 23 going back to 2003). The days of 20+ may be gone but there doesn't seem much downside to a buy at 6.75.

Still looking at other markets, found what appears to be a great looking spread bet but wondering whether to take it till both firms have priced it.

[notanotherdonkey]

I have taken NewZealand to won this tournament but hope it is a good tournament.It is a early start a week on Saturday KO times 5-45am Australia v Fiji,8-15am France v Argentina and 10-45 am New Zealand V  South Africa all games live on ITV.Busy day for me as I am at the Speedway Grand Prix in Cardiff as well. Good Luck.

[notanotherdonkey]

I forgot to mention about free bets if you had £40  max bet with Unibet on sports if your first bet loses they return the stake but has a wager restriction.I had a bet on Horse Racing which is a sport and was disqualified but won but Horse Racing is not included under the terms and conditions etc.So be careful and read the terms and conditions and remember to opt in as well.Good Luck

[harry_rag]

Ok, gird you loins, here comes my 3 part review of the current spread markets! Not sure it'll be of interest to many on here but I've done the work so might as well post it. Best price spread followed by average and stats from past 4 World Cups (most recent first) and brief thoughts on potential or actual bets.

Total Points : 2550-2575, Ave = 2499.25 (2439 - 2245 - 2478 - 2835)
Thoughts - share the consensus that this is a sell if anything but prefer to bet in other markets.

Total Tries: 305-315, Ave = 290.25 (271 - 262 - 296 - 332)
Thoughts - similar to points, again you're going back to 2003 to find the spread covered.

Total Penalty Tries: 9-10, Ave = 5 (6 - 4)
Thoughts - only got stats for 15 and 11, looks a bit high to me barring relevant rule changes but too low a price to be selling at.

Total Tryscorer shirts: 3500-3550
Thoughts - no stats and no feel for this one, posted in case of interest.

Total successful penalties: 182-192, Ave = 194.75 (224 - 171 - 178 - 206)
Thoughts: No strong view on this one.

Total successful conversions: 226-236, Ave = 207.5 (194 - 171 - 211 - 244)
Thoughts: Already sold this at 230. If the spreads were right about the number of tries then you'd still need the success rate to be slightly higher than it's been over the last 4 tournaments (ave = 71.5%).

Total drop goals: 7.5-7.25, Ave = 16.25 (8 - 20 - 14 - 23)
Thoughts: already bought at 6.75. Even allowing for the downward trend I don't think there's much downside to a buy at that price. Currently a slight arb on this market.

Total missed kicks: 122-132, Ave = 223.25 (152 - 235 - 222 - 284)
Thoughts: already bought at 130. This looks way too low to me, even if some of those stats look iffy (apparently the success rate for drop goals is really low and it would appear teams were pinging them in from all over the shop prior to 2015). If you exclude drop goals you still get an average of 166.5.

Total 50-ups: 440-460, Ave = 458.75 (328 - 386 - 474 - 647)
Thoughts: Potential sell if you think the points lines are too high anyway. Treat the stats with caution as I've just compiled them from ESPN while furiously stabbing at a calculator!

Total Ton-ups: 11, Ave = 21.75 (0 - 0 - 21 - 66)
Thoughts: This was 17 to buy or sell when I first posted the early numbers so obviously seen sellers. There are better ways to bet on low points totals but a low risk buy if you do still fancy a blow out or two. There have been just the 3 games seeing >100 points, 1 in 07 and 2 in 03.

[harry_rag]

Part 2!
Unused subs: 49-53 (57 in 2015)
Thoughts: I got a bit excited about this as a potential buy as I was piecing together what stats I could find until I realised that 2015 was the first time 8 subs were allowed. As it was a new development then I suspect teams will be more used to making use of 8 replacements so it's no bet for me.

Bookings points: 625-630, ave = 371.25 (555 - 230 - 400 - 300)
Yellow cards: 54-55, ave = 34 (53 - 18 - 35 - 30)
Red cards: 3.5-4, ave = 1.25 (1 - 2 - 2 - 0)
Thoughts: Total bookings points looks like a potential sell in the absence of anything that suggests an upsurge in cards this year. Red cards may be over-stated. I'll be mulling this one over before getting involved.

Total drawn games: 0.75-0.9, ave = 0.75 (0 - 1 - 1 - 1)
Thoughts: I've taken 6/5 for any drawn game with Lads. Not sure it should be odds against.

Total games won to nil: 2.96-2.9, ave = 2 (1 - 2 - 4 - 1)
I'm not quite comparing like with like here as Spreadex's market is actually based on 25 points per team scoring 0 so you could get 50 points in the event of a game ending 0-0 (not including abandoned games) but let's ignore that possibility. The Tote go 1/2 for any game to be won to nil and I think that's a good price but I can't quite bring myself to put the hefty bet on that would be required to make it worthwhile at the price.

Tryless matches: 0.75-0.95, ave 2 (1 - 3 - 3 - 1)
Thoughts: Not much downside but hardly an exciting prospect as a buy. Might keep any eye out for a fixed odds price that appeals.

One last post to come in terms of spreads, just a list of the remaining markets I've seen but without stats or comments.

[harry_rag]

Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen.

Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins)
N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140
Biggest winning margin: 91-96
Highest scoring game: 105-110
Lowest scoring game: 17-19.5
Fastest try (seconds): 75-78
Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27
Fastest hat trick (mins): 33-36
Highest tries in a match: 15.5-16.5
Highest kicked pens in a match: 8.75-9.75
Highest shirts in a match: 212-220
Highest bookings points in a match: 48-53

[harry_rag]

Quick post re my current fixed odds portfolio. You'll be relieved to hear I haven't got the energy to go into as much detail as I did with the spread markets!

Argentina to win at 40/1 Hills
Ireland to win at 16/1 888
Reece top tryscorer at 15/1 888
Thoughts: These three can be filed under "using an odds boost or free bet before it expired".

Any player to score >100 points in the tournament at 9/4 with Hills
Any player to score 100+ points in the tournament at 5/1 with Betway
Thoughts: I'd taken the worse price and terms with Hills before I saw the second bet (don't think it was available at the time). My gut feel is it was just about a bet at 9/4 and is decent value at 5/1 (though I was limited to small stake).

Any team to score >90 points in a match at 6/4 with Fred
Any player to score 6+ tries in a match at 16/1 with Betway
Any player to score 8+ tries in the tournament at 9/4 with Betway
Thoughts: Basically, all bets where my gut feel told me the line and price combine for a bit of value, with due regard to prices elsewhere and stats across the last 4 World Cups.

South Africa v New Zealand final at 10/3 with Hills
Thoughts: Sub 3/1 virtually everywhere else, Rugby Vision's ratings assess this as around a 28% chance of happening. Whilst I wouldn't follow their view slavishly it's certainly worth paying some regard to them and I felt this was worth a go.

Total drawn games >0.5 at 6/5 with Lads
Thoughts: Close to a coin toss for me with no draws perhaps the less likely outcome. I'd rather take the 6/5 for this side of the line than the 5/4 for <0.5.

[LePapo]

 nice job mate, my bookie is offering 1.75 on less than 242 conversions to be scored which according to your stats is just a massive price. will have a bit of research myself but definitely i'm betting something on that ! also i'm probably betting on georgia to score +7.5 tries and uruguay to score -4.5 tries, i'm tempted as well by argentina to score +13.5 tries. originally i had planned to have a bet on japan to qualify but i'm not conviced, i will just follow them closely and maybe i'll have a bet on their match against scotland.

[harry_rag]

It's a high line certainly! I've seen lines closer closer to 230 and 10/11 so I wouldn't put you off though it's definitely a bet I favour via the spreads. Been looking at team stats today but not really had chance to process the data. I do think the handicap line is too high for the opening game so will probably be taking Russia with the start.

[harry_rag]

Here's my bets on the opening game.

Russia +41 at evens with Skybet
Basically, if you discount games against Korea and Hong Kong, Japan rarely score 41 points, let alone win by that big a margin. Some people got some attractive low lines for Japan before Russia's recent poor results but I think the market has over reacted and I think Russia are more likely than not to stay within that start.

Russia to be shown the first yellow card at 15/8 with PP and >1.5 total cards shown at 3/1 with Hills
I just think both prices err on the generous side. >0.5 cards is odds on and Russia have to be favourites to receive the first one. On past experience I was expecting 9/4 to be the best price for 2 or more cards so 3/1 seems worth a go.

Anytime tryscorers: Selskiy at 17/2 with SX, Ostroushko at 9/1 with 888 and (all 14/1 with Lads); Gadzhiev, Vavilin and Fedotko
One will show a profit, I have happy memories of landing two 18/1 Russian tryscorers in one game back in 2011 so couldn't resist having a look at the prices for tomorrow.

[LePapo]

I'm tempted by the 39-40 points handicap on Russia as well and +2.5 penalties to be scored at 2.20. I can see the russians deciding to shoot instead of going for a line out if the score is quite close or even japan early in the match just to be ahead in the score. They played a test match back in novemeber and japan won 32-27 after russia wasted a 22-10 lead at the first half. 7 penalties were scored in the match which would cover the spread...(although circumstances now are totally different) I think there's too much pressure on Japan, I even read today (cant remember if it was the captain or the coach) that said they were not favourites to win this match!! it can be a long match for japan if they dont get an early lead which will take some pressure off them. I think they'll eventually outclass russia but can't see them winning by more than 40 tomorrow.

[harry_rag]

Net loss for me; comfortable win on the handicap bet but no joy with the rest.

Just taken an interest in the handicaps on tomorrow's games so far, treble with Hills (boosted) pays 8.724:

Australia -15, France -1, South Africa +7

Done the 3 singles, all at evens (got -14 Australia with Betway).

Strongest selection of the 3 for me is SA +7 though none are as confident as the Russia bet today.

[LePapo]

2 out of 2 for me. The handicap was never in doubt maybe a bit during the first 10 minutes of the second half but overall it was a solid bet. +2.5 scored penalties looked nowhere near to be a winner at half time but eventually it was.. 

Not quite sure for tomorrow yet , the handicap on SA looks the most solid bet for me but might risk a bit more and bet on 1-12 points margin on SA.

I'm tempted to back argentina, i think there's been a bit of overreaction as they've lost 10 of their last 11 matches but truth is they've played 6 of them against NZ, SA and Australia and one more against barbarians.. Argentina usually overperforms during the WC, also they play with lot of pride which might be the differential in the match. they have nico sanchez who is more accurate than a sniper, so they should be fine with penalties and conversions..

Also, i've made an early bet on Arg -29.5 against Tonga.. the 92-7 loss against the AB shows how weak is their defense..

I'll skip aus fiji from the betting persective...

[harry_rag]

Bought Argentina front 5 try minutes at 6 with SX.

My gut reaction was it seemed a low price (9 to buy elsewhere). Stats aren't spectacular for the players in question but, to be honest, it's such a cheap buy I'd rather buy it and lose than swerve it and see a high make-up now I've considered it. Think that's me done for tomorrow's games.

[harry_rag]

New Zealand/South Africa:

Yellow card 5/4, Red card 14/1 (Lads or Sportingbet)
NZ first yellow card 12/5, >1.5 total cards 3/1 (Hills)
Yellow card both teams 6/1 (Betway)

Garces apparently not shy of carding the All Blacks and these prices all seem reasonable for an added interest. Big difference of opinion on the spreads, as low as 11 to buy and as high as 16. I’d rather back a yellow at odds against than buy bookings at 11.

[LePapo]

tough loss for argentina and for me. referee not spot on to me but you can’t give away like that 40 minutes in a world cup. still fuming about the decision to kick the penalty instead of going for the line out especially because their maul was solid during the match. i’m not betting on SA NZ, i’ll just enjoy a nice match of rugby. i like your bet on a yellow card to be shown , good luck

i imagine now argentina will do everything to get a bonus point against tonga and usa. can’t see france putting a fight against aus or wales. i would love to see argentina and england getting through the group phase 

[harry_rag]

Shame I got tempted into the cards bets, otherwise a decent day. 2 out of 3 on the handicaps and a 37 point profit on the buy of Argentina front 5 try mins.

Tomorrow's punts to follow shortly.

[harry_rag]

For tomorrow I'm just doing two of the handicaps, singles and the double.

Namibia +31 with Hills and Tonga +45 with Lads (double with Lads at +30 and +45).

I'd take Ireland -8 if you pushed me for a selection but it's too close to put money on. Gone for them to win by 1-10 points at 9/4 Betway which seems a reasonable pick and is sub 2/1 in most places.

Only other bet so far is a buy of Namibia's multi points at 29 with SPIN (up to 35 now but was 24 just prior to me deciding to make the bet earlier).

[Zemside]

Quality tips harry_rag.I looked at the 2015 World Cup and the dogs won 2/1 on the caps.By picking Ireland and France you got two of the fav's nice.

As with the 2015 Cup the caps are staying high.The ball isn't sticking in the hands many times and tries are not many yet.

One game Mon,one Tues,,one Wed,two Thur.

I like the value on Ireland @ 8/1 still.

 

 

 

[harry_rag]

Cheers, think I'm 6-1 on the handicap picks so far, not sure how long that strike rate will persist!

For tomorrow I've gone for:

Georgia +28 at 21/20 Lads
Parkes try at 21/10 Lads
Georgia try in each half at 5/2 Hills

I used my boost option on those Lads prices; +28 is widely available at evens or you can get +29 at 10/11 with Fred. Lads have cut the 2/1 on Parkes but he's still that price with Sportingbet.

Wales clearly capable of covering that line but, based on past World Cups and this one to date, I'd say it's more likely that not that they'll fall short tomorrow.

Parkes looks a bit generous to me at 2/1 or more. The other bet seems ok though might be a bit muggy given I was tempted by a free bet offer!

[notanotherdonkey]

I just had the 2 bets Russia +41 points and also France -1 @10-11 on the handicap.Had a busy weekend so never had time to post as was at Cardiff speedway Gp.

[notanotherdonkey]

Today I am taking Wales -26.5 on the handicap @4-5 with Betway. Good Luck

[LePapo]

after a solid opening match, i’m now 2-2 with overall less than a unit lost. 

ive bet on russia +29.5 against samoa, i haven’t seen yet a blowout in this world cup and teams are struggling to cover big handicaps (italy , england, japan). i was quite impressed by the russian side on friday. they put up a decent performance for about 50 minutes against japan. samoa is not a team that scores lots of points , in fact their highest score in the last 3 years was against usa B (48-26). so i think a 29.5 is quite a big task for the samoan side. had russia not play just a couple of days before the match this would definitely be a full stake bet for me. 

also i think the current handicap on argentina tonga is quite short. tonga was really poor yesterday against england, they never were a threat in attack and if england hadn’t made lots of handlings mistakes this would have been a huge loss for tonga. on the other side , argentina needs to win this match to keep alive any chance they might have to qualify to the QF. in theory they should go all in to win this match and to get the bonus point. i’ve already bet on -29.5 a days ago but the spread now is set at 23.5-24.5.. i’ll just wait the confirmation of the line ups ... 

i’m quite tempted on the handicap for uruguay against fiji as well. the line is currently at 31.5 i think and this might be a bit high given that fiji play on saturday. 

other than that, the outright bets are going better than expected. this is so far a low scoring world cup. i saw today one bookie is offering 1.80 on -308.5 tries. i think they just  didn’t update the odds so i’m almost certainly betting on that. 

 

 

[harry_rag]

11 minutes ago, LePapo said:

i saw today one bookie is offering 1.80 on -308.5 tries. i think they just  didn’t update the odds so i’m almost certainly betting on that. 

Good luck if you do, spreads still 304-307 so price doesn't look too out of line.

Have played drop goal scored at 15/2 in today's game, seems a bit big.

[notanotherdonkey]

3 hours ago, notanotherdonkey said:

Today I am taking Wales -26.5 on the handicap @4-5 with Betway. Good Luck

Well done Wales 29 point win but it was close in the end.Go and collect.3 out of 3 on the handicaps for me.

[harry_rag]

It may look like I've been a bit indecisive with my bets on tomorrow's games but I'd say I've split my stake across the main "shortie" bets and had smaller bets (sometimes smaller than I'd have liked) on the long shots.

Russia +31 at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >10.5 points at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >1.5 tries at 27/20 with Lads
Buy Russia tries squared at 3.7 with SX
Russia to win race to 10 points 9/1 Betway
Russian player man of the match 20/1 Betway
Russia most converted tries 17/1 888
At least 1 yellow card for each team at 11/2 Betway

I'm expecting Russia to at least attempt a more expansive game tomorrow and hoping that fatigue from a short turnaround won't be too much of a factor. Samoa have only won 6 of their 27 games over the last 4 years and only 1 (by 51 v Germany) by more than 20. The yellow card bet is only 5/2 with Hills.

[LePapo]

solid bets all of them, russia first team to score 10 points at 9/1 is just massive value. I will bet on that. I'm on +3.5 penalties scored as well, weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.. so fly halves might have a big role in the match.